Deadly Attacks in Russia Spark Fears of Extremism Amid Ethnic Tensions

On August 23 2024, four prison employees were killed after several prisoners staged a revolt in the remote IK-19 Surovikino penal colony in the southwestern Volgograd region of Russia. Special forces stormed the facility and “neutralized” the attackers, whom the Russian media named as Temur Khusinov, 29, and Ramzidin Toshev, 28, from Uzbekistan, and Nazirchon Toshov, 28, and Rustamchon Navruzi, 23, from Tajikistan. In a mobile phone video released by the perpetrators, the attackers identified themselves as members of Islamic State, claiming their actions were fueled by a desire to avenge the mistreatment of Muslims. The footage starkly depicted prison officials lying in pools of blood, while other clips showed the attackers moving freely through the prison courtyard. With the twentieth anniversary of the Beslan school massacre - perpetrated by members of a Chechen separatist group called the Riyad as-Saliheen Martyrs’ Brigade - drawing near, tensions in Russia are running high, with the perceived threat from extremism leading to a wave of xenophobia. The Crocus City Hall attack, which allegedly involved Tajiks, served to stoke ethnic tensions in Russia, leading to backlash by nationalists. Faced with such conditions and prejudice, an exodus of migrant workers during a time of war has left Russia with a dearth of human capital. Through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), Russia is working with the C5 to detect and combat violent extremists, some of whom are illegally entering Central Asia before traveling to Russia. The Central Asian states, which are secular, are meanwhile trying to balance rights to religious freedom with blocking the malinfluence of oppressive and potentially violent ideologies. Three Central Asian countries border Afghanistan, and both the U.S. and the UNODC are working with Tajikistan to counter terrorism and violent extremism. While some extremist groups see Central Asia as a fertile recruiting ground, a UN report from 2023 noted that “Regional Member States estimated current ISIL-K strength at between 1,000 and 3,000 fighters, of whom approximately 200 were of Central Asian origin.” Despite these low numbers, however, the fact that some observers continue to link Islamic State Khorasan Province to the countries of Central Asia - even though the terrorist organization has purely Afghan roots - means that Central Asia once again finds itself at the center of a nexus of international security challenges.

Islamic State Khorasan Province as Part of the Struggle for Central Asia

Following the high-profile terrorist attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall in March and reports that eight Tajik immigrants were arrested in the U.S., the media spotlight has once again fallen on Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP), also known as "Wilayat Khorasan", and the "Khorasan Project.” Many observers link ISKP to the countries of Central Asia, even though the terrorist organization, as it has been designated for a long time, has purely Afghanistani roots. In addition, there is a lot of talk about its geopolitical ambitions for “recreating” the state of “Khorasan.” Where this region’s boundaries lie is the subject of debate. The most expansive definitions include northeastern Iran, western and northern Afghanistan, eastern Turkmenistan, and parts of Tajikistan and Uzbekistan. It is important to understand, however, that clear boundaries have never existed, and neither has a state with that name. In modern times, the term “Khorasan” has only historical and cultural connotations, with no political meaning attached to it. ISKP has suffered a clear military defeat in the borderlands of Afghanistan and Pakistan, and faces significant opposition there. Still, weakening and even destroying the Taliban remains an important goal for the organization. It continues to fight in several regions of Afghamistan, which has prompted the Taliban to intensify their counter-terrorism efforts. [caption id="attachment_19644" align="alignnone" width="1920"] Sanaullah Ghafari, Emir of ISIS-K has a U$10 million bounty on his head; image: rewardsforjustice.net[/caption] The countries of Central Asia, having emerged out of the Soviet Union, are attractive for ISKP ideologists in the sense that they share a common historical and cultural past, while there are even linguistic similarities with Afghanistan (between the Persian languages). The Russian internet portal and analytical agency, TAdviser, points out that ISKP, through its online propaganda publication, announced the start of a new campaign against the countries of the post-Soviet space in April 2022. In June of that year, the ISKP publication, written in the Uzbek language, declared that the countries of Central and South Asia would be united under the flag of the “Islamic Caliphate.” TAdviser highlights that Turkmenistan has a special place in ISKP propaganda because according to the group a large part of what is now Turkmenistan was previously part of “Greater Khorasan,” while the foreign policy of the Turkmen authorities of actively cooperating with the Taliban is wholly at odds with the core goals of ISKP. The Lapis Lazuli corridor linking Afghanistan to Turkey, along with the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India gas pipeline (TAPI) which is being developed, are identified as priority targets for ISKP. But what in fact is ISKP? As previously noted by The Times of Central Asia, the answer to this question is known by only a very narrow circle. Indeed, no one can provide objective data on the qualitative and quantitative composition of ISKP. Nevertheless, the group is taking on real dimensions in the media. The threat to Central Asia from ISKP looks more virtual than real at this point. Any small group of terrorists can declare themselves part of ISKP, and, without any...