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A drone incident near the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal outside Novorossiysk briefly halted oil loading on September 8, again highlighting Kazakhstan’s dependence on its main export route through Russia. Astana is seeking to expand alternatives, but the difference in volumes remains enormous. According to Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry, the country exported 64.8 million tons of oil through CPC in 2025. The ministry puts shipments via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline at 1.2 million tons annually. Azerbaijan has said it is ready to receive up to 2.2 million tons of Kazakh oil through BTC annually, although KazMunayGas expects shipments of up to 1.6 million tons in 2026. Even this higher figure would be only around 3% of the volume Kazakhstan exported through CPC last year. The Caspian route allows oil from Kazakhstan to bypass Russian territory entirely. Crude is shipped to the port of Aktau, carried by tanker across the Caspian Sea to Azerbaijan, and then transported through the BTC pipeline via Georgia to the Turkish Mediterranean port of Ceyhan. However, the logistics are more complicated than direct pipeline transportation. A substantial increase in exports could require additional tanker capacity and improvements to transport infrastructure on both sides of the Caspian. Kazakhstan also exports oil eastward to China. Another alternative is the Atyrau-Samara pipeline, although it feeds crude into Russia’s pipeline system and does not reduce reliance on Russian transit. The latest incident temporarily stopped loading at two single-point moorings, the offshore facilities used to load crude onto tankers. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said inspections of the equipment and vessels found no issues affecting continued loading. It reported no environmental impact. Loading resumed, and CPC imposed no restrictions on accepting crude from Kazakh shippers. CPC operations had already been interrupted several times in 2026 following attacks in the terminal area. The disruptions have added up. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov estimated that incidents affecting CPC in January and July had caused about 3.5 million tons of lost production. He said Kazakhstan would have to lower its 2026 oil production forecast from 98 million tons to around 96 million tons. The problem for Astana is the scale of its dependence. CPC connects Kazakhstan’s largest oilfields to the Black Sea and accounted for approximately 82% of the country’s 78.7 million tons of oil exports in 2025. Even doubling or tripling shipments across the Caspian would leave CPC dominant. Kazakhstan can gradually spread its exports across several routes, but the alternatives cannot currently replace its main export channel. For more on our special coverage, click here.
South American crude oil has been delivered to Germany’s PCK refinery in Schwedt via Poland, providing an alternative supply route after Russia halted the transit of crude from Kazakhstan through the Druzhba pipeline earlier this year. Poland’s UNIMOT Group said its subsidiary, UNIMOT Paliwa, imported the seaborne cargo through the Baltic port of Gdańsk before transporting it to the Schwedt refinery using Poland’s PERN pipeline network. The shipment comes after Russia suspended the transit of crude from Kazakhstan to Germany via the Druzhba pipeline on May 1. The route had become increasingly important after Germany stopped importing Russian oil following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. Russia’s pipeline operator, Transneft, cited technical constraints as the reason for the suspension. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak later told reporters that Germany’s rejection of Russian crude suggested the country no longer required those supplies. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry subsequently confirmed that exports to Germany through Druzhba had stopped on May 1. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan shipped no crude to the PCK refinery in May through the Atyrau-Samara-Druzhba route. He said unofficial information from the Russian side linked the suspension to a lack of technical capacity, likely caused by recent attacks on Russian energy infrastructure. Kazakhstan began supplying crude to the Schwedt refinery through Druzhba in 2023 as Germany sought to replace Russian oil. Exports rose steadily, reaching 1.5 million tons in 2024 and 2.146 million tons in 2025, up 44% year on year. Shipments totaled 730,000 tons in the first quarter of 2026. Annual exports had been expected to rise to about 2.5 million tons, enough to meet roughly 30% of the refinery’s crude requirements. Reuters reported in April, citing three industry sources, that Russia planned to halt oil exports from Kazakhstan to Germany on May 1. The news agency said a complete suspension would remove about 17% of the crude processed annually by the PCK refinery, one of Germany’s largest. The loss would add uncertainty to the country’s fuel supply amid disruption in global energy markets. The PCK refinery supplies approximately 90% of the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, and heating oil consumed in Berlin and the neighboring state of Brandenburg. It also exports around 2 million tons of refined fuels annually to western Poland. German broadcaster RBB reported that the latest shipment arrived by tanker through the port of Gdańsk. According to the refinery’s works council, the crude is believed to have come from Guyana. Rosneft Deutschland, the refinery’s majority shareholder, has been under German government trusteeship since 2022. A company spokesperson confirmed the delivery, saying it would help maintain refinery operations at around 80% of capacity. UNIMOT Vice President Robert Brzozowski said the shipment represented more than a commercial transaction because Poland’s maritime and pipeline infrastructure supports fuel security on both sides of the German-Polish border. The delivery reflects Europe’s efforts to diversify crude supply routes after the disruption of crude transit from Kazakhstan through Russia. Germany is seeking alternative supplies for the PCK refinery. Kazakhstan has said the suspension will...
