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President Tokayev: Kazakhstan Charts Its Own Course

In a rare, candid interview with Al Jazeera, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev of Kazakhstan projected a steady, pragmatic vision for his country’s future, portraying it as a stabilizing force amid turbulent global currents. Tokayev explained how his government is navigating complex pressures at home and abroad, from economic modernization and digital transformation to balancing ties with Russia, China, Europe, and the United States. The message was one of controlled ambition: Kazakhstan will not be rushed, but rather steer a measured course of reform and integration, balancing domestic stability with global engagement. Tokayev opened the interview by acknowledging the obstacles facing Kazakhstan’s domestic reforms, notably the global pandemic and the war in Ukraine. These external shocks, he explained, have tested the country’s resilience and delayed the delivery of the “New Kazakhstan” that he promised three years ago. Yet he remained firm in his commitment to a gradual but determined path forward. “We must be frank, we must be pragmatic, but at the same time we need to be very much bold,” he said. Domestically, Tokayev defended his record on political reform, including the legalization of opposition parties and the introduction of a one-term presidency of seven years. “I have already announced that I will step down” in 2029, he said, adding that this was “a demand of my people.” This latter move is unprecedented in the region. Tokayev characterized Kazakhstan’s laws as “quite democratic,” dismissing criticisms from organizations like the Organisation for Security and Co-operation in Europe and Human Rights Watch as biased and detached from the country’s political and historical context. "I don't believe that we should follow recommendations of human rights organizations nowadays," he said, also mentioning foreign funders behind certain NGOs, which he left unnamed. Acknowledging the need for further reforms, particularly in media freedom and civil liberties, Tokayev made clear that stability remains the overriding priority. “Without stability, there will be no reforms, no modernization, no transformation of our society,” he said. Tokayev emphasized Kazakhstan's commitment to a “law and order” strategy to promote greater stability, where the laws fully comply with international standards. Tokayev's remarks on measured progress typify his leadership style, which admits the complexity of transformation while setting pragmatic goals. His program of a “fair and just Kazakhstan” reflects his awareness of domestic discontent with wealth disparities that simmer beneath the surface of economic expansion. The country's economy remains dominated by hydrocarbon fuels, which account for over half of exports. Tokayev’s vision of transforming Kazakhstan into a “non-hydrocarbon country” by 2060 strikes a pragmatic note. “Coal in our domestic energy balance accounts for 73%. We cannot give up coal just overnight,” he said, signaling both realism and the limits of immediate energy transition. The diversification of transport routes — including the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (the Middle Corridor) and the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline — aligns with his goal of mitigating overdependence on Russia and ensuring economic security amid global uncertainty. Tokayev’s foreign policy strikes a careful balance between continuity and adaptation. While acknowledging Kazakhstan’s reliance on...

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Can Kazakhstan Lead Small and Middle Powers in Reforming the UN?

ASTANA – The United Nations, envisioned as a pillar of global cooperation, has often struggled to rise to the challenges it was created to address. Its inability to bridge cultural divides hampers meaningful solutions to regional issues, while structural weaknesses and the exclusion of diverse regional voices from the Security Council deepen its shortcomings. Compounding these flaws is the frequent deadlock among permanent members, whose competing agendas stifle consensus and action. These inefficiencies cast doubt on the organization's ability to hear and respond to regional voices, grievances, and expectations in a rapidly changing world. Amid these persistent challenges within the United Nations, Kazakhstan's proactive stance on global issues highlights its potential to lead efforts toward fostering peace and addressing critical gaps in international cooperation. For example, although Kazakhstan prioritizes nuclear energy in its national strategy, it simultaneously remains committed to advocating for the non-proliferation of nuclear and biological weapons. Such an approach, combined with its balanced foreign policy, enables the largest Central Asian nation to seek to position itself as a leading advocate for global peace. But how realistic is that in the current geopolitical climate? As conflicts and wars continue to rage around the world, leaders from several countries have gathered in Kazakhstan’s capital, Astana, for the Astana International Forum (AIF) to discuss key global challenges ranging from energy security and geopolitical cooperation to international trade and sustainable development. For Kazakhstan’s leadership, the event serves as an ideal opportunity to reaffirm its aspiration to position the country as a middle power. According to the Central Asian state’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, it is middle powers that should be prepared to take on greater multilateral responsibilities. “We all should strongly remain adherent to the United Nations Charter with no biased and selective approaches to its principles,” Tokayev said on May 29 in calling for the expansion of the United Nations Security Council that, in his view, should include broader regional representation. This idea was firmly supported by President Gordana Siljanovska-Davkova of North Macedonia, who numbered among the major guests in Astana. She argues that small countries, along with middle powers, should be "the greatest advocates of effective multilateralism," as they stand to gain the most from institutions like the United Nations. “The Security Council should be expanded, reformed and democratized to make it more accountable and more responsible in maintaining international peace and security,” Siljanovska-Davkova stressed, adding that the international institution “should take its rightful place as a principal representative body, not only for debate and deliberative democracy but also for policymaking.” The problem, however, is that major global powers, as permanent members of the UN Security Council, are unlikely to voluntarily relinquish their positions within the organization. Small and middle powers will, therefore, undoubtedly have to work hard to achieve their ambitious geopolitical goals. In the meantime, they are expected to continue developing bilateral relations. “The task before us is clear – to preserve cooperation where it still exists and to restore it where it has broken down. We must widen this...

International Diplomacy Middle Powers Astana International Forum Multi-vector Foreign Policy

Kazakhstan’s Diplomatic Dance: Securing Power in Turbulent Times

For Kazakhstan, strengthening ties with neighboring Central Asian states – as well as with Russia, China, and the West – is a top foreign policy priority. That, however, does not mean that the energy-rich nation is not also seeking to build stronger relations with other actors on the international stage. The largest regional country views itself as an aspiring middle power. As such, it intends to continue pursuing what Roman Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Foreign Ministry, describes as a “balanced, constructive and pragmatic foreign policy.” Yet, in an increasingly turbulent world, this approach comes with its own sets of challenges. One of them is undoubtedly the construction of the nation’s first nuclear power plant. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has repeatedly stated that an international consortium with participation by companies from China, France, Russia, and South Korea should be responsible for that. But how realistic is that under the current geopolitical circumstances? “No decision of the composition of the consortium has been made yet, although we are actively negotiating with the companies interested in the construction,” Vassilenko told The Times of Central Asia, emphasizing that Tokayev has stressed that Kazakhstan will need more than one nuclear power plant. That is why, in Vassilenko’s view, there will likely be different types of consortiums building different types of nuclear plants. Such an approach perfectly illustrates the Central Asian nation’s “multi-vector” foreign policy. “As the ninth largest country in the world, with only 20 million people, and neighboring such superpowers as Russia and China, we can naturally depend only on the best diplomacy we can deploy,” Vassilenko stressed. For that reason, Kazakhstan has initiated the Astana International Forum (AIF) – an event that reflects today’s interconnected global challenges, ranging from energy security and the climate crisis to technological innovation, sustainable development, and geopolitical cooperation. This year, the AIF – taking place in the Kazakh capital on May 29-30 – will host leaders from nations such as Rwanda, Qatar, Albania, Croatia, and North Macedonia, among others. The fact that Astana will host leaders from several Balkan countries clearly suggests that Kazakhstan plans to strengthen ties with this part of Europe. According to Vassilenko, Kazakhstan’s policymakers view the Balkans as a “promising market” which is why the Central Asian nation plans to establish direct flights to Serbia later this year. “We already have direct flights to Montenegro, and we aim to connect Kazakhstan with other European countries as well,” Vassilenko said, adding that his nation has recently opened embassies in Albania and North Macedonia. This approach demonstrates that Astana sees not only the European Union but also the EU candidate countries as potential partners. Still, for Kazakhstan – a major oil and gas producer – energy plays an important role in its foreign policy strategy. Given that the Central Asian state supplies large quantities of crude oil and petroleum products to Europe via Croatia, it’s no surprise that the Prime Minister of the former Yugoslav Republic, Andrej Plenkovic, is among the major speakers at the Astana International...

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Astana International Forum: Not Just Another Davos

Kazakhstan’s Astana International Forum (AIF) has quietly entered a new phase in its development. Set to convene again this month, it began in 2008 as a targeted economic forum. Over time it has gradually evolved into a broader diplomatic platform aspiring to serve the so-called “Global South” as a whole. The AIF seeks to offer a deliberately open space for structured yet flexible dialogue across economic, political, and security domains, in a world full of international gatherings either overdetermined by legacy institutions or narrowly focused on crisis response. The AIF does not model itself on any existing institution. It is meant neither to replicate global summits nor to impose consensus, nor to replace regional blocs or legacy mechanisms. Rather, it reflects Kazakhstan’s own diplomatic philosophy — what President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev calls “multi-vector foreign policy” — seeking to extend this philosophy outward through a forum that prioritizes engagement over alignment and dialogue over doctrine. The AIF’s early period, from 2008 through roughly 2015, was defined by foundational work. Then called the Astana Economic Forum, it brought together central bankers, financial policymakers, and development agencies. The scope was technocratic, focusing on macroeconomic modernization and public-sector reform. Even in this limited format, however, the initiative revealed Kazakhstan's national aspiration to connect with wider global trends in institutional development and governance. Those formative years correspond to what, in terms of complex-systems theory, might be called the Forum’s phase of “emergence”: a period of assembling functions, testing formats, and learning the rhythms of international convening. These years were not marked by geopolitical ambition, but they did set in motion a process of institutional self-recognition. Kazakhstan was not just hosting events; it was experimenting with a type of global presence that would grow more distinct in later years. From 2015 to 2022, the Forum entered a more self-defining stage. It retained its core economic focus, but it increasingly attracted participants from beyond financial and development sectors. This broadened its scope to include questions of connectivity, regional stability, and sustainable development. The shift was not an accident. It accompanied Kazakhstan’s growing involvement in regional diplomacy and its active participation in a range of other multilateral structures. During this second period, the Forum took on the character of an institution with internal momentum. (This is what complex-systems theorists might term “autopoiesis,” i.e., the ability of a system to reproduce and maintain itself.) By adapting to a wider field of participants and issues, the AIF began to articulate a mission no longer limited to showcasing Kazakhstan’s domestic reforms but extending toward the creation of new transnational linkages. The rebranding of the old Astana Economic Forum as the Astana International Forum affirmed this shift in mandate, scope, and ambition. That rebranding marked the beginning of what now appears to be a critical inflection point. The cancellation of the 2024 edition due to catastrophic flooding created a rupture; but the organizers, rather than rush a replacement, deferred the Forum and used the intervening time to clarify its structure and message. The...

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Victory Day Diplomacy: Central Asia’s Balancing Act and Putin’s Diminished Spotlight

Every year, Moscow’s Red Square transforms into a stage for one of Russia's most celebrated traditions: Victory Day, an event which marks the Soviet Union’s triumph over Nazi Germany in World War II. Yet, as tanks roll through the cobblestone streets and military bands echo under the Kremlin walls, the occasion feels more heavily laden with geopolitical undertones than historical reminiscence these days. Against the backdrop of ongoing conflicts and shifting alliances, the presence of Central Asian leaders at this year’s event speaks to the region’s delicate relationship with the Russian Federation. But the question remains: amidst the pomp and circumstance, is there much for Vladimir Putin to celebrate? Central Asia’s Careful Balancing Act The attendance of Central Asian leaders at the Victory Day parade is a striking show of diplomatic choreography. On the surface, their presence will underscore the shared historical legacy of the Soviet era, when the sacrifices of the Central Asian republics contributed to the Allied victory in the Second World War. However, a more pragmatic lens reveals a balancing act that defines the region’s foreign policy. The region finds itself at the crossroads of global powers vying for influence in Central Asia. While Moscow leans on historical ties and cultural commonalities to retain its sway, Beijing’s economic clout continues to reshape the region’s trade networks and infrastructure projects. Meanwhile, as the inaugural EU-Central Asia Summit attests to, the European Union is eager to expand its reach, whilst hungry for Rare Earth Elements in which the region is rich, the U.S. is waiting in the wings. For Central Asian leaders, participating in Victory Day celebrations signals a nod to Russia’s historic role but also keeps the door open for economic and security cooperation. Amidst the shifting architecture of global politics, their diplomatic strategy remains one of pragmatism, seeking benefits from multiple partners while avoiding any over-alignment. What Does Russia Gain from the Optics? The presence of 29 leaders from across the globe – including Chinese President Xi Jinping - offers Moscow valuable optics at a time when its international relationships face significant strain. Last year, only nine attended. Isolated by Western sanctions over the invasion of Ukraine and with much of the world’s media painting Russia as cut off from the global stage, the impression of a united front with Central Asia helps the Kremlin portray the opposite. Victory Day, therefore, becomes a geopolitical tool, with the attendance of Central Asian leaders enabling Putin to send a message of shared unity within Russia’s historical sphere of influence. It tells both domestic and international audiences that Moscow retains significant allies, reinforcing the image of resilience despite ongoing challenges. How Much Does Moscow Truly Celebrate? The Victory Day parade is an event that is watched by an estimated three-quarters of the Russian public, drumming up patriotism as the state seeks to become the custodian of collective memory. Behind the spectacle, however, signs of disquiet are proving hard to ignore. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted trade and migration flows...

Central Asia-EU Summit EU Middle Powers U.S. Astana International Forum Multi-vector Foreign Policy Middle Corridor China Russia

How Tokayev’s Kazakhstan Bridges Global Powers

Amid the ongoing reshaping of the global order, Kazakhstan is seeking to enhance its role as an emerging middle power. Preserving strong relations with all key geopolitical actors, strengthening its position as a de facto leader in Central Asia, and developing closer ties with other influential states on the world stage appear to be Astana’s top foreign policy priorities. The largest Central Asian state is one of the few countries that maintains good relations with geopolitical rivals such as China and the United States, as well as Russia and the European Union. At the same time, Astana is actively developing closer ties with the Turkey-led Organization of Turkic States, while firmly upholding its longstanding commitment to international law. It is, therefore, no surprise that, during the recently held EU- Central Asia summit in Samarkand, Kazakhstan, along with Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, backed two UN resolution from the 1980s that reject the unilaterally-declared independence of the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus and deem all secessionist actions there legally invalid. Such a policy perfectly aligns with Kazakhstan President’s Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s 2022 statement, in which he affirmed Astana’s non-recognition of Taiwan, Kosovo, South Ossetia, or Abkhazia, and the entities he described as quasi-states, namely Luhansk and Donetsk. “In general, it has been calculated that if the right of nations to self-determination is actually realized throughout the globe, then instead of the 193 states that are now members of the UN, more than 500 or 600 states will emerge on Earth. Of course, it will be chaos,” Tokayev stressed. In other words, Kazakhstan upholds the principle of territorial integrity for all UN-member states, a stance similar to China’s policy. Despite their history of often supporting the right to self-determination over the principle of territorial integrity, Russia and the West do not seem to oppose Tokayev’s approach. As a result, the President of Kazakhstan remains one of the few world leaders who can attend the May 9 Victory Day parade in Moscow, regularly meet with EU officials, and participate in China-led initiatives. As the first Central Asian leader to speak with newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump in December 2024, Tokayev is also signaling his intention to deepen relations with the United States. All these actions demonstrate that, for Kazakhstan under Tokayev, the well-known multi-vector foreign policy remains without an alternative at this point. Although it is Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president, who initiated this approach, it is Tokayev who has been actively implementing it since he came to power in 2019. That, however, does not mean that "multivectorism" has become Astana’s official ideology. It is rather a tool the energy-rich nation’s policymakers are using to improve their country’s position in the international arena. Nowhere is that more obvious than at the Astana International Forum – an annual summit taking place in Kazakhstan’s capital – where leaders from diverse countries, often with differing goals and values, come together to discuss global challenges, foster dialogue, and seek common ground. The fact that this year Astana will host...