Migration Trends - The Times Of Central Asia

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Migration

Emigration from Kazakhstan Drops to Lowest Level in a Decade

Kazakhstan is witnessing a significant decline in emigration, reaching its lowest level in more than ten years, according to a study by analysts at Ranking.kz. The analysis, based on data from the National Statistics Bureau (NSB) of the Agency for Strategic Planning and Reforms of the Republic of Kazakhstan (ASPiR RK), highlights shifting demographic and economic patterns within the country. Statistical Overview and Long-Term Trends In the first four months of 2025, just 1,700 individuals left Kazakhstan for permanent residence abroad, a figure 2.8 times lower than the same period in 2024, when 4,800 people emigrated. Immigration also declined slightly, with 8,100 people entering Kazakhstan between January and April 2025, compared to 9,900 the previous year. Despite this, the migration balance remains positive, with more people arriving than leaving. A longer-term view underscores a consistent downward trend. In 2000, some 155,700 people emigrated. By 2024, this figure had dropped to 12,700. Notable upticks occurred during periods of heightened outflow, specifically between 2006-2008 and 2013-2019. However, for the past two years, Kazakhstan has maintained a positive migration balance. In 2024, 23,900 people immigrated to the country, nearly double the number who left. Key Destinations for Emigrants Most emigrants originate from Kazakhstan's northern and eastern regions. In 2024, 47.9% of those who left came from the Kostanay, Pavlodar, Abai, North Kazakhstan, and East Kazakhstan regions. Russia continues to be the primary destination, receiving 69% of all Kazakhstani emigrants. However, that number is sharply down: from January to March 2025, only 644 citizens moved to Russia, a 75.5% decline compared to the same period in 2024. Germany is the second most popular destination. In 2024, approximately 2,000 Kazakhstani citizens relocated there, but this too marked a significant decrease of 67.9%. Emigration to nearly all traditional destinations has declined, with the exception of Kyrgyzstan. While still relatively minor in scale (about 300 people annually), migration to Kyrgyzstan is gradually increasing, particularly from Kazakhstan’s southern regions. Causes Behind the Decline The United Nations Population Fund had previously forecast a drop in emigration, attributing it to Kazakhstan’s economic development, increased labor demand, and the diminishing pool of ethnic migrants. Demographic shifts also play a role. Population growth in southern Central Asian republics is contributing to a new influx of migrants into Kazakhstan. A 2024 public opinion survey conducted by the Demoscope Express Monitoring Bureau supports these trends. Among the 1,100 respondents, 78.5% said they had no plans to emigrate within the next two to three years. Only 6.9% expressed intent to leave, and 5.6% said they would like to emigrate but were currently unable to do so. The most commonly cited reasons for emigration include the desire for higher income (24.5%), better employment opportunities (14%), and a perceived lack of prospects within Kazakhstan (23.9%). Other motivations include studying abroad (11.7%), family reunification (2.6%), and returning to ancestral homelands (0.6%).

Migration

Lithuania to Review Migration Policy Toward Central Asian Countries

Lithuania is preparing to revise its migration policy toward citizens from Central Asian nations, citing growing concerns over radicalization risks. Prime Minister Gintautas Paluckas announced the potential changes following a meeting with President Gitanas Nausėda, according to local media reports. “Unfortunately, it seems we need to recognize that people from some countries are more likely to become radicalized,” Paluckas told reporters. “We should consider adjusting our immigration policy and focus on bringing in skilled workers from countries that are closer to us culturally.” His remarks came shortly after the head of Lithuania’s State Security Department, Darius Jauniškis, revealed that approximately ten individuals from Central Asian countries had recently been denied entry over alleged ties to terrorist groups and concerns regarding radicalization. Jauniškis also warned of a broader trend, noting a rising risk of radicalization among migrants from both Central and South Asia. Paluckas added that Lithuania currently maintains numerous visa centers in countries whose cultural values may not align with those of Lithuania. “We are looking ahead and planning to update our migration policy so that it better reflects cultural closeness,” he said. Migration Trends from Central Asia Lithuania has experienced a significant increase in migration from Central Asia in recent years, prompting authorities to heighten security oversight. According to Lithuanian intelligence, the number of migrants from the region in 2024 was 14 times higher than in 2021. Despite this sharp rise, former Prime Minister Ingrida Šimonytė has urged caution in interpreting the figures, noting that the total number of migrants remains relatively small and not a cause for alarm. She attributed the increase in part to labor shortages, particularly after many Ukrainian men were conscripted for military service amid the ongoing war. As of October 2024, approximately 10,600 Uzbek nationals were residing in Lithuania, up from fewer than 1,000 in early 2022. Uzbeks now constitute the fourth-largest foreign community in the country. The number of Tajik citizens also rose significantly, from 5,700 to 7,200 in the first nine months of 2024 alone.

Migration

Kazakhstan’s Migration Trends: Growth in Skilled Labor, No Signs of Chinese Influx

A positive migration trend is emerging in Kazakhstan, with new data indicating a significant increase in net migration. In 2024, the country recorded a migration balance of 17,200 people, an 85% increase from the previous year. The gap between arrivals and departures expanded 2.3 times, with 30,000 people moving to Kazakhstan compared to 12,800 leaving the country. Experts from the Institute of Public Policy highlighted that Kazakhstan’s emigration rate has reached a historic low in contrast to outflows observed in other countries. In 2024, net migration losses were significantly higher in Georgia (-39,200), Israel (-18,200), Uzbekistan (-14,300), and Bulgaria (-9,200). Kazakhstan has seen a significant reduction in emigration. In the early 2000s, the annual outflow was around 289,000 people, but by 2024, this number had dropped to the aforementioned 12,800. Meanwhile, the inflow of migrants continues to rise. Last year, 12,200 people arrived from Uzbekistan, 8,100 from Russia, 2,000 from China, 1,400 from Mongolia, and 1,100 from Turkmenistan. Additionally, several hundred people from Turkey, Germany, Georgia, the United States, and South Korea also relocated to Kazakhstan. Currently, 13,000 foreign specialists are employed in Kazakhstan’s economy, including 5,300 in construction, 2,600 in industry, and 700 in agriculture. The country is also attracting international students, some of whom choose to stay after graduation, suggesting that Kazakhstan is on track to become a leading destination for skilled professionals in Central Asia and the CIS. In November 2023, Kazakhstan and China implemented a visa-free regime, allowing short-term travel between the two countries. However, this agreement does not grant Chinese citizens the right to work, study, or engage in missionary activities in Kazakhstan. Despite this, social media was flooded with concerns that millions of Chinese citizens would move to Kazakhstan, take jobs, and even claim territory. Experts dismissed these fears as unfounded, arguing that the visa-free regime was primarily designed to boost trade and tourism rather than encourage large-scale migration. More than a year and a half has passed since the agreement came into effect, and no such wave of migration has occurred. Political scientist Marat Shibutov criticized the initial panic, stating: “Those who spread fear about mass Chinese migration should look in the mirror because nothing has happened. The Chinese do not need to come here.” According to Shibutov, young and ambitious Chinese migrants prefer destinations such as Singapore, the United States, Europe, Canada, and Australia. Official data further debunks fears of Chinese migration. According to the Bureau of National Statistics, the number of Chinese citizens moving to Kazakhstan permanently has been steadily decreasing since 2017. Most of those who do relocate are ethnic Kazakhs returning to their ancestral homeland, a process actively encouraged by the Kazakh government through state programs for repatriates, known as Kandas. The figures speak for themselves. In 2017, 3,000 Chinese citizens moved to Kazakhstan. By 2023, this number had dropped to just 416, of whom 398 were ethnic Kazakhs and only four were ethnic Chinese. Additionally, the vast majority of repatriated ethnic Kazakhs, 63.5%, came from Uzbekistan, while fewer than...

Migration

World Bank Report Examines Migration Trends in Central Asia

The World Bank has released a report titled The Way Forward: Supporting Successful Migration in the Europe and Central Asia Region, which analyzes migration trends and their impact on countries in the region, including Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Migration remains a significant issue in Europe and Central Asia, a region home to 100 million migrants, one-third of the world’s total migrant population. People move across borders in search of better job opportunities, as well as in response to changing demographics, climate change, and conflicts. This trend is expected to continue. According to the report, most migrants from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan head to Russia, with over 80% of migration from these countries directed there in 2023. Migration from Uzbekistan is more diverse, with 57% of Uzbek migrants residing in Russia, 15% in Kazakhstan, and 10% in Ukraine. The Economic Role of Labor Migration Labor migration plays a crucial role in the economies of Central Asian nations. In 2024, remittances accounted for: 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP 24% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP 14% of Uzbekistan’s GDP Many households rely heavily on money sent home by migrants. The report highlights that without remittances, the poverty rate among Kyrgyz households with migrant family members would rise from 10% to 50%, while in Uzbekistan, it would increase from 9.6% to 16.8%. The total volume of remittances sent to Uzbekistan in 2024 reached a record $14.8 billion. Recommendations for Better Migration Management The report underscores the need for improved migration policies, as its full potential remains underutilized. If managed effectively, migration can help address economic and demographic challenges. The World Bank recommends several measures to enhance migration management: Developing tailored strategies for skilled and unskilled workers. Integrating labor migration into national economic planning to support growth. Implementing policies to mitigate "brain drain" and encourage skilled workers to return home. Improving migrant registration and formalizing agreements with destination countries. Providing migrants with accurate job information to ensure safer and more organized migration processes. The report concludes that with the right policies in place, migration has the potential to serve as a powerful tool for economic development in Central Asia.