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Income Growth Plan

Opinion: Kazakhstan’s New Income Growth Plan – Administrative Measures Against Market Realities

Kazakhstan’s government has unveiled a Comprehensive Plan to Increase Household Incomes for 2026-2029. The Ministry of National Economy says it contains 59 measures. The stated goals include higher wages and lower inflation. The plan also aims to ease household debt. The full text of the plan has not yet been published in open access. First Vice Minister Azamat Amrin presented its main provisions at a Government press conference on June 11. The central contradiction lies in the fact that guaranteed income growth applies to only a small segment of the population. The plan creates fundamentally different conditions for the public and private sectors. It provides for mandatory salary indexation for civil servants. Their wages will be revised every three years based on accumulated inflation. According to labor market data, this category includes about 85,000 to 90,000 people less than 1% of the country’s total workforce of around 9.3 million. It is this narrow group that receives a reliable long-term mechanism of financial protection. Indexation is also planned for employees of national companies and natural monopolies. This group includes around 700,000 to 800,000 people, or 8-9% of the labor market. Employees in the social sector, teachers, doctors, and others, receive their salaries directly from the state budget. This category numbers around 1.2 million to 1.3 million people, or 13-14% of the workforce. Under Kazakhstan’s law on public service, these workers are not considered part of the state administrative apparatus. The plan does not introduce automatic three-year indexation for them; their incomes are raised through separate government decrees, usually on an annual basis depending on budgetary capacity. More than 7 million people work in the competitive private sector, small and medium-sized businesses, as well as the self-employed, accounting for more than 75% of the workforce. For this dominant category, the plan offers no direct mechanisms for income growth. Instead of financial guarantees, the document proposes using an administrative lever: officials will hold talks with private business owners to encourage them to raise wages. The only basic indicator directly affecting the incomes of low-paid private sector workers is the minimum wage. However, the government has postponed revising the minimum wage until August 2026. Private business bears the main market risks and forms the country’s tax base. It is these taxes that finance guaranteed incomes in the public sector, which in total accounts for around a quarter of the labor market, while the overwhelming majority of working citizens, about three-quarters, have no comparable protection. Economist Murat Temirkhanov, an adviser to the chairman of Halyk Finance who took part in expert discussions of the government’s plan, says this approach distorts market relations. A directive requirement to raise wages could push businesses away from formal hiring and into the shadow economy to cut costs. In his view, the plan ignores the only real source of income growth: higher labor productivity. The document devotes only one point to this factor, even though international institutions such as the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank have directly recommended...

minimum wage

Kyrgyzstan Retains Lowest Minimum Wage in the Eurasian Economic Union

Kyrgyzstan continues to have the lowest minimum wage among member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), according to Eurasian Economic Commission (EEC) data cited by local media. As of March 2026, Kyrgyzstan’s minimum monthly wage was about $38. By comparison, the minimum wage stood at $337 in Russia, $292 in Belarus, $174 in Kazakhstan, and $199 in Armenia. Analysts say Armenia’s economy is broadly comparable in scale to Kyrgyzstan’s. According to official statistics, the minimum wage in Kyrgyzstan has risen far more slowly than in other EAEU countries and remains significantly below both the country’s average salary and the official subsistence minimum. Data from Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistical Committee show that the subsistence minimum currently stands at around $105. Meanwhile, minimum wages in Russia and Belarus have nearly doubled over the past several years. Against this backdrop, the situation regarding average salaries in Kyrgyzstan appears somewhat more positive. According to the EEC, Kyrgyzstan and Belarus recorded the highest rates of average wage growth in the region. Over the past year, average wages in Kyrgyzstan increased by around 10%, while Belarus recorded growth of approximately 9%. Despite this, average wages in Kyrgyzstan remain the lowest among EAEU member states. By the end of 2025, the average monthly salary in Kyrgyzstan stood at approximately $508, compared to $783 in Armenia, $877 in Belarus, and $1,203 in Russia. No data for Kazakhstan were included in the published EEC statistics. Kyrgyzstan’s National Statistical Committee previously stated that nominal wages in the country have roughly doubled over the past five years. Per capita household spending has also increased significantly, which officials say reflects rising consumption levels and gradual improvements in living standards. At the same time, consumer spending continues to account for the largest share of household expenditures in Kyrgyzstan.

Social Spending

Kazakhstan Government to Cut Social Spending

The Kazakh government plans to reduce budgetary spending on social support. Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov told parliament that only citizens who are objectively unable to work will continue receiving state assistance. According to the Cabinet of Ministers, approximately $16.9 billion was allocated to the social sector in 2024, representing 37.3% of total budget expenditures. Of that amount, $10.2 billion went toward social security and direct assistance to the population. In 2025, social spending is projected to rise to $18.4 billion, or 37.2% of the overall budget, with social payments continuing to represent a significant portion. “The social sector places a very heavy burden on the budget: benefits, payments, and various support measures account for about 60% of the total budget. For many years, these expenditures exceeded 40% of the republican budget. When forming the budget for the next three years, we reduced them to 38%,” Bektenov said during his remarks in parliament. He added that the government will continue its optimization efforts. Only citizens who are unable to work for objective reasons will qualify for state support, while those capable of working are expected to support themselves. According to the Ministry of Labor and Social Protection, as of October 1, 2025, targeted social assistance (TSA) was being provided to 274,400 individuals from 51,000 families. The total amount disbursed thus far in 2025 was $47 million, out of a planned $190 million for the full year. TSA is distributed quarterly to low-income families, with employable recipients required to participate in state employment programs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin stated that the government would revisit the issue of increasing the minimum wage no earlier than 2027.

Economy

Kazakh Government to Reconsider Minimum Wage Increase No Earlier Than 2027

The Kazakh Cabinet of Ministers does not plan to revisit the issue of raising the minimum wage before 2027-2028, according to Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin. Earlier this year, in June, Minister of Labor and Social Protection Svetlana Zhakupova had announced plans to raise the minimum wage from January 1, 2026. At the time, the minimum wage stood at approximately $163, and Finance Minister Madi Takiev indicated that an increase to just over $172 was under consideration. However, in August, Zhumangarin announced that the minimum wage would remain frozen at its current level. Speaking at a government meeting this week, Zhumangarin confirmed that a review of the minimum wage is not scheduled in the near term. “In 2027-2028, the issue of raising the minimum wage will be considered,” he said, presenting a draft program of joint actions by the government, the National Bank, and the Agency for Regulation and Development of the Financial Market (ARDFM) aimed at macroeconomic stabilization and improving the population’s well-being from 2026 to 2028. Under the program, more than 100 investment projects in the manufacturing and agro-industrial sectors are to be launched annually to support employment. “The program’s priority is to increase real incomes by promoting high-quality, sustainable economic growth and reducing inflation. To this end, a set of tools has been developed across key areas of economic policy,” Zhumangarin stated. To curb inflation, the government plans to saturate the domestic market with local goods, strengthen pricing oversight, and tackle monopolistic practices. Zhumangarin also outlined plans to enhance transparency on e-commerce platforms. This includes requiring disclosure of commission fees included in the cost of goods, as well as optimizing commission structures for trading platforms and intermediaries. To protect consumers, dual pricing will be introduced, listing prices both with and without installment plans. A separate priority will focus on boosting long-term economic productivity through improvements in labor efficiency, effective employment, and capital modernization. These efforts aim to reduce the persistent gap between GDP growth and wage growth. Between 2026 and 2028, the government expects real income to grow by at least 2-3% annually. “At the end of the first nine months, nominal wage growth stood at 10%, but real growth was negative due to inflation,” Zhumangarin said at a briefing. “Our task is to ensure that inflation does not erode incomes. If we aim for real income growth of 2-3%, this means nominal growth must exceed inflation by that margin in the coming years.” As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, inflation has significantly eroded household income this year, driven by Kazakhstan’s reliance on imports, rising utility rates, and an increased tax burden.

Economy

Tajikistan Raises Minimum Monthly Wage to $110 Amid Broad Income Hikes

Effective September 1, Tajikistan has implemented a nationwide increase in salaries, pensions, and scholarships, ranging from 10% to 30% across various sectors. The country’s minimum wage is now officially set at 1,000 Tajikistani somoni (TJS) per month, approximately $110. This marks a 25% increase from the previous rate of 800 TJS ($88). “This means that from September 1, 2025, the monthly salary of employees of all institutions, organizations, and enterprises, regardless of ownership, must not be less than 1,000 TJS,” the official decree states. The salary hikes apply broadly. Employees of kindergartens and general education schools will see a 30% increase. Teachers at universities and research institutions will receive a 20% raise, matching the increase granted to doctors, chief physicians, nurses, and other healthcare personnel. The same 20% boost also extends to social workers, including staff at elderly care homes and facilities for people with disabilities, as well as to cultural sector employees, such as those working in theaters, libraries, museums, media, and public broadcasting. Civil servants at all levels of government have also received a 20% salary increase. In parallel, insurance, labor, and social pensions have been increased by 10%. Scholarships, including presidential scholarships and other academic grants, have also been raised, with the exception of stipends for cadets in military universities and the Academy of the Ministry of Internal Affairs. The 2025 state budget includes provisions to finance these increases. Funding sources include surplus revenue collections, local taxes, free budget balances, the Social Insurance and Pension Fund, and reallocation of reserve and discretionary funds. Total budget revenues are projected at TJS 49.6 billion (approximately $5.45 billion), with around 65% expected to come from tax revenues. The government forecasts a 20.8% increase in tax collections compared to 2024. Spending on public sector wages, pensions, and scholarships now accounts for more than 35% of the national budget. In 2025, the total wage fund has reached nearly TJS 13 billion ($1.43 billion), marking a 35.7% rise year-on-year. Pension allocations total TJS 5.1 billion ($561 million), while benefits and scholarships are funded at TJS 350 million ($38.5 million) and TJS 280 million ($30.8 million), respectively, each reflecting a 25% to 26% increase over last year. Despite the official wage growth, low salaries remain a persistent issue for many Tajik citizens. As consumer prices continue to rise, the increases are widely viewed as a form of income indexation rather than a substantial improvement in living standards.

minimum wage

Kazakhstan to Freeze Minimum Wage in 2026 Despite Earlier Promises

Kazakhstan will maintain its current minimum wage of 85,000 KZT per month (approximately $157) in 2026, Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of National Economy Serik Zhumangarin confirmed at a recent press conference. This announcement contradicts earlier statements made in June by Minister of Labor and Social Protection Svetlana Zhakupova, who indicated that the government intended to raise the minimum wage from January 1, 2026. Finance Minister Madi Takiev had even suggested a possible increase to just over 90,000 KZT ($166). However, Zhumangarin stated that the proposed adjustment has been scrapped. “We currently have no plans to increase the minimum wage. As of today, it remains at 85,000 KZT, and we are not considering an increase at this time,” he said. Zhumangarin noted that while pensions and benefits are indexed annually to inflation, the government has allocated 800 billion KZT ($1.4 billion) in the 2026 budget to cover these costs. Takiev added that while calculations had been made for a potential increase, “given the current situation,” the decision was made to leave the wage unchanged. The minimum wage was last raised in January 2024, from 70,000 KZT ($135 at the time) to its current level. Some members of parliament have called for a broader review of the minimum wage, the minimum subsistence level, and the structure of the official food basket. In response to a reporter’s question, Zhumangarin acknowledged that he himself could not live on 85,000 KZT per month under current market conditions but stressed that the issue must be approached cautiously. According to the Ministry of Labor, approximately 170,000 people in Kazakhstan currently earn the minimum wage, while another 160,000 earn around 100,000 KZT monthly. As of the first quarter of 2025, the total number of employed individuals in the country stood at 9.3 million. Over the summer, AMANAT parliamentary faction leader Yelnur Beisenbayev criticized government statistics, particularly the official average salary figure of 423,000 KZT ($830). “In our country, three million people earn around 200,000 KZT, of whom 1.8 million live on the minimum wage of 85,000 KZT. So the question arises: who earns 423,000? I believe the government calculates it like this: if Asan earns 1 million KZT, and Yessen and Usen earn 100,000 each, then the average among them is 400,000,” he remarked.