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Bilateral Trade

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Aim to Boost Trade to $3 Billion by 2030

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have reaffirmed their commitment to increasing bilateral trade to $3 billion annually by 2030. This objective was emphasized during the 13th meeting of the Kazakh-Kyrgyz Intergovernmental Council, held on November 13 in Astana and co-chaired by Kazakhstan’s Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov and Adylbek Kasymaliev, Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers of Kyrgyzstan. The meeting covered a broad spectrum of cooperation, including trade, investment, water and energy management, as well as cultural and humanitarian initiatives. Kasymaliev highlighted recent progress, noting that bilateral trade reached $1.7 billion in the first nine months of 2025, a 15% increase compared to the same period in 2024. Direct investment from Kazakhstan to Kyrgyzstan totaled nearly $64 million in the first half of 2025. “This demonstrates the Kazakh business community’s trust in Kyrgyzstan and the broad opportunities for new projects,” said Kasymaliev. Key Infrastructure Projects and Trade Hubs The Council identified priority areas to strengthen cooperation. Chief among them is the construction of an industrial, trade, and logistics complex near the Karasu and Ak-Tilek road checkpoints at the border. This facility is expected to become a major regional hub for cargo consolidation, processing, and distribution, advancing industrial integration between the two economies. Another key project is the establishment of a wholesale storage and distribution center for fruits and vegetables in Kazakhstan’s Almaty region. This facility aims to secure uninterrupted agricultural trade between the two countries. Bilateral trade in agricultural products surged by 42% in the first eight months of 2025, reaching $326 million. Over 80% of that trade volume comprised exports from Kazakhstan. Energy Cooperation and Border Infrastructure The sides also discussed potential supplies of Kazakh oil and motor fuel to Kyrgyzstan. The latter consumes about 1.6 million tons of motor fuel annually, with 93% imported from Russia. Fuel prices in Kyrgyzstan have climbed since mid-2025, driven by higher wholesale costs in Russia, linked to reduced refining capacity, damage from Ukrainian drone attacks, and sanctions-related difficulties in acquiring technological equipment. Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan stressed the need to complete the ongoing reconstruction of three key border checkpoints, Kichi-Kapka-Besagash, Ak-Tilek-Karasuu and Karkyra-Kegen-which are expected to significantly facilitate cross-border trade. Tourism and Cultural Cooperation The two countries are also prioritizing mountain tourism. Plans include reviving tourist routes to Khan Tengri Peak, a destination located on the border and shared by both states, offering mutual opportunities to boost tourism-related revenues.

gasoline

Russian Gasoline Export Ban Will Not Impact Kyrgyzstan, Ministry Confirms

The temporary ban on gasoline exports introduced by the Russian government on August 27 will not affect Kyrgyzstan, the country’s Ministry of Energy has confirmed. As a member of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), Kyrgyzstan is exempt from the restriction, which applies only to non-EAEU countries. Kyrgyzstan consumes approximately 1.6 million tons of motor fuel annually, 93% of which is imported from Russia under a 2016 intergovernmental agreement on fuel trade. While the full quotas for 2025 have yet to be fulfilled, deliveries remain uninterrupted, and negotiations are ongoing regarding 2026 volumes. Despite the exemption, domestic fuel prices in Kyrgyzstan have risen since mid-2025, reflecting wholesale price hikes in Russia. The Association of Oil Traders of Kyrgyzstan anticipates further increases in retail prices if the current upward trend at Russian refineries continues. The surge in Russian wholesale prices is attributed to multiple factors, including reduced refining capacity due to both scheduled and emergency maintenance, infrastructure damage from Ukrainian drone attacks, and ongoing difficulties in procuring technological equipment amid Western sanctions. In Kyrgyzstan, the price of AI-92 gasoline, a commonly used grade, has already reached 70 soms ($0.80) per liter. Nevertheless, retail fuel prices in Kyrgyzstan remain lower than in neighboring Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, which also depend on Russian imports but do not benefit from the EAEU exemption.

Trade

Kazakhstan Bans Export of Gasoline and Diesel Fuel

Kazakhstan has officially banned the export of gasoline and diesel fuel by road and rail, according to a government decision that came into effect on January 29, 2025. The restriction is outlined in amendments to the joint order “On Some Issues of Export of Oil Products from the Territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan,” which were approved by the Minister of Energy, the Chairman of the National Security Committee (KNB), and the Ministers of Finance and Internal Affairs. Scope of the Ban and Exceptions Under the new regulations, the export of petroleum products - including to member states of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) - is prohibited via road transportation. "Introduce a ban on the export of gasoline, diesel fuel, and certain types of petroleum products from the territory of the Republic of Kazakhstan, including to the EAEU member states, by road transport," the official statement reads. However, the government has outlined several exceptions: Lubricating oils may still be exported. Fuel contained in vehicle gasoline tanks is permitted for export, provided it meets factory specifications. Aviation fuel may be exported for scientific research, additive testing, laboratory studies, and industrial production, subject to government approval. Petroleum products designated for humanitarian aid are exempt from the ban during the period from September 29, 2024, to March 29, 2025. In addition to road transport, railway exports are also restricted, with limited exceptions. Gasoline exports within the framework of state-approved plans, as well as fuel deliveries for humanitarian aid and disaster relief efforts, will be permitted between February 1 and March 29. Government’s Rationale for the Ban The Ministry of Energy stated that the new restrictions aim to prevent fuel shortages in the domestic market. The move comes amid discussions about phasing out state regulation of fuel prices. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the Kazakh government is considering a gradual liberalization of gasoline and diesel fuel prices to reduce price disparities with neighboring countries and curb the illegal export of fuel and lubricants.

Economic Reforms

Kazakhstan Plans to End State Regulation of Fuel Prices

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Energy is considering the phased liberalization of gasoline and diesel fuel prices as part of a broader reform aimed at addressing price disparities with neighboring countries and curbing illegal fuel exports. The proposed changes have been outlined in a draft document published on the Open NAP portal. The reform would gradually shift fuel pricing from state regulation to a market-based system. Since May 2024, Kazakhstan has implemented a differentiated pricing mechanism, but the Ministry of Energy acknowledges that state regulation has made Kazakhstan the country with the lowest fuel prices in the region. This disparity has incentivized “gray” fuel exports - illegal cross-border sales - and contributed to domestic shortages of petroleum products. Currently, a liter of AI-92 gasoline in Kazakhstan costs 205 KZT ($0.39), significantly cheaper than in neighboring countries: Russia: 288 KZT ($0.54) Kyrgyzstan: 385 KZT ($0.72) Uzbekistan: 489 KZT ($0.92) The price gap is similarly wide for diesel fuel: Kazakhstan: 295 KZT ($0.56) Russia: 355 KZT ($0.67) Kyrgyzstan: 427 KZT ($0.80) Uzbekistan: 528 KZT ($0.90) Price differences for gasoline range from 40% to 138%, while for diesel fuel the gap is between 20% and 79%. The Ministry of Energy emphasizes that this price liberalization is crucial for addressing the challenges caused by these discrepancies. According to the Ministry, the reform will help: Prevent illegal fuel exports. Ensure the economic viability of oil production projects. Enable expansion of refinery capacity from 18 million to 28 million tons per year. The modernization of the oil refining sector, spurred by market-based pricing, would also create new jobs and provide additional funding for government programs. “Phased liberalization of prices with priority support for socially vulnerable segments of the population is necessary. It will create a sustainable system for supplying the domestic market and ensure economic feasibility,” the Ministry’s explanatory note states. The Ministry has assured the public that the transition to market pricing will be gradual and carefully managed to avoid sharp or sudden price increases. Authorities also promise strengthened oversight of the fuel and lubricants market to ensure uninterrupted supply and compliance with legal standards. Agricultural producers, a key sector reliant on affordable fuel, will retain access to subsidized pricing under transparent mechanisms. Additionally, the government has pledged to implement social support measures to protect low-income and vulnerable populations from the financial impact of rising fuel prices. “Liberalization will ensure predictability of changes and create conditions for modernization of the industry. Social support will be prioritized, and agricultural producers will continue to benefit from structured access to fuel,” the Ministry emphasized. Kazakhstan’s plan to phase out state regulation of fuel prices marks a significant shift in the country’s energy policy. By transitioning to market pricing, the government aims to address long-standing challenges, including illegal exports and underinvestment in refinery modernization, while also ensuring social protections for vulnerable groups. The success of this reform will depend on how effectively the government balances economic modernization with public concerns over rising fuel costs.

smuggling

Underground Smuggling Tunnel Uncovered on Uzbek-Kazakh Border

Under the coordination of Kazakhstan’s Turkestan Region Prosecutor’s Office and in cooperation with Uzbek law enforcement, authorities dismantled a criminal group and shut down a tunnel used for smuggling petroleum products. One tunnel, stretching 450 meters between the two countries, was used to smuggle 5–7 tons of fuel and lubricants daily. The smuggling operation had been active for two months before being brought to an end. Investigations revealed that a well-organized transnational criminal group was behind the tunnel, using it to facilitate the illicit transfer of goods and funds between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Meanwhile, Uzbekistan’s State Security Service (DXX) uncovered another illegal underground tunnel on the Tashkent-Kazakhstan border. Working in coordination with the Tashkent-Aero customs complex, border troops, and military personnel, the DXX exposed a cross-border smuggling operation involving large quantities of substandard drugs imported from India into Uzbekistan via Kazakhstan. In a related case, a similar underground passage was discovered in April in Kyrgyzstan’s Jalal-Abad region. This tunnel was being used to smuggle people and contraband goods into Uzbekistan.

Oil refinery

Kazakhstan Needs a Fourth Oil Refinery to Meet Its Growing Demand for Motor Fuel

Speaking in parliament on November 25, Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Almasadam Satkaliyev announced that the country anticipates a shortage of motor fuel by 2036. To address this, he emphasized the need to design a new oil refinery with a capacity of 10 million tons per year by 2030, with construction slated to begin in 2032. According to Satkaliyev, the proposed refinery will ensure Kazakhstan’s fuel demands are met from 2040 to 2050 while also enabling exports to rapidly developing markets in Central, South, and Southwest Asia. Currently, Kazakhstan operates three oil refineries - located in Shymkent, Pavlodar, and Atyrau - which are sufficient to meet domestic demand for gasoline and diesel fuel. However, during seasonal shortages, Kazakhstan imports additional fuel from Russia. Satkaliyev provided details on the country’s fuel production and import figures for 2024. Kazakhstan plans to produce 10.9 million tons of fuel this year, including 5.1 million tons of gasoline, 0.6 million tons of aviation fuel, and 5.2 million tons of diesel. In addition, approximately 1 million tons of fuel will be imported from Russia, comprising 0.285 million tons of gasoline, 0.3 million tons of aviation fuel, and 0.45 million tons of diesel. By 2032, Kazakhstan’s annual fuel production is expected to reach 19 million tons, including 8.2 million tons of gasoline, 1.5 million tons of aviation fuel, and 9.3 million tons of diesel. This increase will not only eliminate the need for imports but also enable the country to export surplus fuel. Satkaliyev also addressed the domestic supply of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), which is the most affordable and widely used automobile fuel in Kazakhstan. From January to October 2024, Kazakhstan produced 2.5 million tons of LPG, compared to 2.4 million tons in 2023. The Energy Ministry has set the planned production volume for 2024 at 2.9 million tons. To stabilize the LPG market, the ministry has banned its exports since November 2023. The domestic market requires 164,000 tons of LPG monthly, while the ministry distributes 130,000-140,000 tons. Looking ahead, the government aims to meet rising LPG consumption by introducing new production capacities, with plans to increase annual LPG production to 4.2 million tons by 2032.