Ukrainian Ambassador to Kazakhstan: “The War Will End This Year. I Truly Believe In That.”

As the war between Russia and Ukraine approaches its fifth year, diplomatic efforts to reshape trade routes, energy flows, and regional partnerships are intensifying far beyond the battlefield. For Ukraine, Central Asia has emerged as an increasingly important economic and logistical partner, particularly as Kyiv seeks alternatives to disrupted transport corridors and supply chains. The Times of Central Asia spoke with Viсtor Mayko, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Kazakhstan, about the prospects for deeper economic cooperation with Central Asia, the role of the Middle Corridor, energy transit challenges in the Caspian region, Kyiv’s expectations for international support, and a possible path toward ending the war. Trade and Economic Prospects in Central Asia TCA: Mr. Ambassador, what are the prospects for deepening trade and economic partnerships between Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and wider Central Asia? Which sectors offer the greatest potential for cooperation? Ambassador Mayko: Deepening trade and economic ties between Ukraine, Kazakhstan, and other Central Asian countries is not merely a prospect; it is a necessity dictated by global economic trends. Kazakhstan leads the region economically, with a GDP exceeding $300 billion. It is on a trajectory to join the G20 within 5 to 10 years. The United States, recognizing this potential, has invited Kazakhstan to the upcoming G20 meeting in the U.S., demonstrating Kazakhstan’s rising global significance. Ukraine and Kazakhstan’s economies are complementary. Ukraine brings experience in agricultural technology, mechanical engineering, IT, and processing, while Kazakhstan contributes resource strength, industrial capacity, and logistics. Promising areas for cooperation include agro-industrial development, from crop production to digitalized processing; industrial cooperation through equipment supply and joint production; logistics and infrastructure aimed at strengthening transport corridors; and energy and IT projects focused on efficiency and network modernization. We are already transitioning from theory to action. A major business delegation from Ukraine will visit Kazakhstan this year. We also anticipate another meeting of the Joint Ukrainian-Kazakh Intergovernmental Commission on Economic Cooperation, which is crucial for removing barriers and initiating new projects. Ukraine’s presence in Kazakhstan’s economy has historically been significant. If not for the war and resulting transport disruptions, I believe our mutual trade could have reached $10 billion. Ukrainian machinery still accounts for a substantial portion of Kazakhstan’s industrial base, especially in regions such as Karaganda, Aktau, and Pavlodar, though much of this equipment now requires modernization. Another promising area is mineral resource development. Ukraine has the scientific and practical base to contribute meaningfully to this sector. Turkmenistan’s earlier collaboration with Ukrainian firms in revitalizing depleted wells illustrates our potential. Wells deemed exhausted by older technologies yielded hundreds of thousands of tons of oil under Ukrainian management. This successful model can be applied in Kazakhstan, one of the EU’s top three oil suppliers. Transport Infrastructure and the Middle Corridor TCA: How is cooperation in the transport sector developing, especially regarding the Middle Corridor? Are there any potential plans for joint infrastructure projects? Ambassador Mayko: Russia’s full-scale aggression disrupted Ukraine’s previous logistics routes. Today, we prioritize alternatives like the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route, the “Middle Corridor”, as a...

Kazakhstan and China Launch Project to Double Capacity of Shymkent Oil Refinery

Kazakhstan and China have agreed on the basic parameters of a major expansion project at the Shymkent oil refinery, which will double its processing capacity from over 6 million to 12 million tons of oil per year. According to national oil company KazMunayGas, the Shymkent refinery became Kazakhstan’s leading facility in 2025 in terms of processing volume, handling 6.23 million tons of oil. By comparison, the Pavlodar Petrochemical Plant processed 5.76 million tons, and the Atyrau Oil Refinery 5.47 million tons. Shymkent also topped production output, delivering over 2.28 million tons of gasoline and more than 2.1 million tons of diesel fuel. The refinery is jointly owned by KazMunayGas JSC and China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC). The two partners plan to expand the plant’s production capacity by constructing new processing infrastructure. A delegation from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Energy, led by Daulet Arykbayev, Director of the Oil Transportation and Refining Department, participated in a strategic meeting in Qingdao, China, to prepare a feasibility study for the expansion. Following the meeting, both sides approved the project’s basic framework. A central decision was the adoption of the “6+6” configuration: two processing lines, each with a 6-million-ton annual capacity, fully integrated into the refinery’s existing operations. Officials stressed the importance of meeting project deadlines, with the core feasibility work scheduled for completion by 2032 under the framework agreement. The Ministry of Energy also noted that, under Kazakhstan’s broader refinery modernization program, the goal is to increase total national processing capacity from 18 million to 39 million tons of oil per year. Simultaneously, the government is seeking investors for the construction of a new refinery with an annual capacity of up to 10 million tons. The Times of Central Asia previously reported on state plans to attract foreign investment for a proposed fourth major refinery. Government estimates suggest that expanding the three existing refineries to 39 million tons will require investments of $15-19 billion. In March 2025, the Agency for the Protection and Development of Competition recommended partial privatization of the Pavlodar and Atyrau plants to boost efficiency and attract private capital. However, in December, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov stated that KazMunayGas currently has no plans to privatize these assets.