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political parties

Tokayev Dissolves Kazakhstan Local Councils Ruling Party Merger

Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev signed a decree on October 12 terminating the powers of maslikhats, the country’s local representative assemblies. Snap elections must now be held by December 12. The move follows a decision in June 2026 to merge the Amanat party into the newly established pro-presidential Adilet party, which won August’s parliamentary elections. Most incumbent local deputies, however, were elected in 2023 under the Amanat banner, raising questions about their mandates as the party is absorbed into Adilet. Why Questions About Legitimacy Arose Tokayev first raised the prospect of early elections on September 24, speaking at the inaugural session of the Halyq Kenesi, or People’s Council of Kazakhstan. “The overwhelming majority of maslikhat deputies were elected from the Amanat party. That party no longer operates independently, having merged with the Adilet party,” Tokayev explained. He said the merger would soon raise questions about the legitimacy of much of the country’s local representative bodies once the legal procedures were completed. Under Kazakh law, deputies can lose their seats if the party through which they were elected ceases to exist. However, the decision to merge the parties did not, by itself, end their mandates. From Nur Otan to Adilet Amanat was previously known as Nur Otan and had been the main political support base of Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev. Founded in 1999, the party underwent several name changes. The most recent came in March 2022, following the January unrest, when mass protests escalated into the largest political crisis in Kazakhstan’s post-independence history. Amanat voted on June 12 to join Adilet, which approved the merger two days later. The new organization inherited its regional branches, administrative apparatus, and extensive network of activists. Adilet itself had been registered only on June 1, just weeks before the merger. Adilet was headed by Aibek Dadebay, who had previously led President Tokayev’s administration. Following the August parliamentary elections, he became chairman of the Kurultai, Kazakhstan’s new unicameral parliament. In the August 23 elections, Adilet won 71.17% of the vote and 110 of the 145 parliamentary seats. Four other parties crossed the 5% electoral threshold but secured only 35 seats between them. Maslikhats and the New Parliamentary System Maslikhats are elected at the regional, city, and district levels. They approve local budgets, review territorial development programs, and hear reports from executive officials. In cases provided for by law, deputies may initiate a vote of no confidence in an akim, the head of a local administration. Kazakhstan, however, remains a unitary state with a strong presidential chain of command. The heads of regions and major cities are appointed by the president. Following constitutional reform, the Senate and Mazhilis were replaced by the unicameral Kurultai. On October 7, its deputies voted to establish a Council for Cooperation with Maslikhats. According to deputy Amirbek Ospanbekov, local representative bodies work directly with residents, understand regional conditions, and encounter the practical consequences of laws passed by parliament. The council is expected to involve maslikhat representatives in drafting legislation and gathering information...

Kurultai Election

Kazakhstan Kurultai Election: Can a Third Party Break Through?

With only weeks remaining before Kazakhstan elects its new 145-member Kurultai on August 23, three national surveys point to a commanding victory for Adilet and place Auyl in second. The less certain question is whether Ak Zhol, Respublica, or another smaller party can clear the 5% electoral threshold and join them in the new legislature. Seven political parties have been registered to contest the vote. All 145 seats will be allocated through nationwide party lists, so small changes around the threshold could have a large effect on the composition of Kazakhstan's first Kurultai. The election is the first under Kazakhstan's new constitutional framework, which replaced the former bicameral parliament with a single-chamber Kurultai. The constitutional reform represents the most significant redesign of the country's political institutions in decades and places greater weight on political parties in the legislative process. The available polls differ in timing, method, sample size, and the proportion of undecided voters. Their exact figures are therefore not directly comparable. However, they agree on the broad shape of the race: Adilet leads by a wide margin, Auyl holds second place, and several parties remain close to or below the threshold. The latest Institute of Eurasian Integration survey was conducted through face-to-face interviews with 4,000 respondents in all 17 regions, as well as Astana, Almaty, and Shymkent, from July 16 to 26. Its stated margin of error was no more than 1.54%. That poll put Adilet on 65.1% and Auyl on 5.9%. Ak Zhol stood at 4.7%, marginally ahead of Respublica on 4.6%. The Nationwide Social Democratic Party, or NSDP, received 4.2%, the People's Party of Kazakhstan 4.1%, and the Baytaq Green Party 0.5%. An earlier DATAmetrics poll, commissioned by the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies, interviewed 8,000 people face-to-face from June 13 to July 2. It gave Adilet 54.2%, Auyl 7.3%, Ak Zhol 4.6%, and Respublica 3.4%. One in five respondents had not chosen a party. A telephone survey by the Kazakhstan Institute of Public Development covered 1,200 respondents from July 8 to 20. It put Adilet on 64.8%, Auyl on 5.4%, Respublica on 4.8%, and Ak Zhol on 4.7%, with 10.9% undecided. Taken together, the surveys do not identify a clear third-place party. They do show that Ak Zhol and Respublica are the most consistent contenders for an additional place in the Kurultai. The latest Institute of Eurasian Integration poll also places the NSDP and the People's Party within striking distance, although the other surveys put both further behind. Adilet's lead is unsurprising. Although the Adilet Party was officially registered only this year, it is not starting from scratch. Amanat, formerly known as Nur Otan, merged into Adilet in June, transferring the organization and political network that dominated Kazakhstan throughout most of former President Nursultan Nazarbayev's rule. The merger also placed the former ruling party inside a new organization led by allies of President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. It completed a change of political branding while preserving a strong pro-presidential electoral machine. The sharper contest is therefore not for...

political parties

Kazakhstan’s Party System Faces Its First Kurultai Test

Kazakhstan’s shift to a unicameral, party-list Kurultai is meant to strengthen political parties. But the ruling Amanat party’s June 12 vote to join the newly created Adilet party, followed by Adilet delegates’ approval on June 14, shows the first test of the new system will show whether the new party-list model broadens competition or mainly reorganizes the pro-presidential camp before the vote. Why Parties Matter Now On July 1, 2026, Kazakhstan’s new Constitution enters into force, abolishing the bicameral parliament and replacing it with a unicameral Kurultai of 145 deputies elected exclusively through party lists for a five-year term. The new basic law was approved in a referendum on March 15, 2026. According to the Central Election Commission, it was supported by 87.15% of voters, with turnout at 73.12%. More than 80% of the text of the 1995 Constitution was rewritten. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has said elections to the new Kurultai will take place in August 2026. That makes Kazakhstan’s political parties especially important to watch: for the first time since 2004, key parliamentary players could change substantially. But the early signal is mixed: formal rules strengthen parties as electoral institutions, while the merger of pro-presidential forces consolidates the dominant camp’s organizational advantages. How the Party System Works Kazakhstan is a presidential republic in which parties operate under the Law “On Political Parties.” Until 2022, registering a party required at least 1,000 initiators and at least 20,000 members. After political reforms announced by Tokayev on March 16, 2022, the minimum number of initiators was reduced to 700, while the membership threshold was lowered to 5,000. The minimum size of regional branches was also reduced from 600 to 200 people, and the period allowed for forming branches was extended from six months to one year. In 2023, 98 deputies were elected to the Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament: 69 through party lists and 29 in single-mandate constituencies. The threshold for party lists was lowered from 7% to 5%. Under the new Constitution, single-mandate constituencies are abolished at the national level, and all 145 deputies of the Kurultai will be elected through party lists. Without single-mandate districts, independent political figures will need party access to enter national politics. Parties also take part in elections to maslikhats, local representative bodies at district, city, and regional levels. Those elections were held simultaneously with parliamentary elections on March 19, 2023. Eight Parties: The Current Landscape As of June 2026, before the Amanat-Adilet merger process is completed, Kazakhstan has eight officially registered political parties, the highest number in two decades. Six are represented in the current Mazhilis: Amanat, Auyl, Respublica, Ak Zhol, the People’s Party of Kazakhstan, and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party. The seventh, the environmental party Baitaq, was registered on November 30, 2022, as Kazakhstan’s first “green” party. It failed to clear the 5% threshold in the 2023 elections, receiving 2.30% of the vote. The eighth, Adilet, was registered by the Ministry of Justice on June 1, 2026. It is headed by Aibek...

political parties

Kazakhstan’s Party Landscape Enters a Decisive Week

Kazakhstan’s party system may be approaching one of its most consequential turning points in years. With Amanat scheduled to hold a party congress on June 12 and the newly registered Adilet party planning its own gathering on June 14, speculation is growing that the country’s dominant political organization could be reshaped, merged, or rebranded ahead of elections to the new unicameral Kurultai. The immediate question is whether Amanat, the successor to the party originally created around Kazakhstan’s first president, Nursultan Nazarbayev, will remain the major pro-presidential force or whether its extensive organizational resources will be drawn into Adilet, a new party aligned with President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s political agenda and reform program. For now, no merger has been officially announced, but the timing of the two congresses has made the possibility central to Kazakhstan’s political debate. Adilet held its founding congress on May 7, and was officially registered by the Ministry of Justice on June 1. It is led by Aibek Dadebay, the former head of Tokayev’s administration, and presents itself as a pro-presidential force built around the language of justice, responsibility, and reform. Its emergence adds an eighth officially registered party to Kazakhstan’s system, but its political importance lies less in the number of parties than in the possibility that it could become the new vehicle for the president’s loyalist coalition. That makes Adilet’s appearance significant in a regional context. For many years, Kyrgyzstan was often regarded as Central Asia’s most advanced state in terms of party development and political pluralism. Today, however, Kazakhstan has become a more influential reference point for party-building, one that is attracting attention in Tashkent and Dushanbe, while Kyrgyzstan has largely moved away from party-centered politics. Kazakhstan has developed a multi-party model in which several major political organizations are represented in parliament. The system seeks to balance the interests of the state with those of various social groups and constituencies. Individual elements of this model can be adjusted or transformed as political demands evolve. For example, as public nostalgia for communism began to fade, the Communist People’s Party of Kazakhstan quietly dropped the word “Communist” from its public identity. Ironically, when the party was originally established, the word “People’s” had been added to distinguish it from the Communist Party of Kazakhstan, from which many of its founders had emerged. Through such splits, mergers, and rebrandings, Kazakhstan has gradually constructed a party system that encompasses organizations representing a broad spectrum of society, from state officials and business interests to rural communities. In both Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, five political parties are officially registered. Their political spectrum broadly mirrors that of Kazakhstan: a dominant ruling party, a socialist or communist party, and organizations positioning themselves as democratic, people’s, agrarian, or environmental movements. Kyrgyzstan, by contrast, has taken a markedly different path. In 2025, the country completed its transition from a party-centered political system to one in which parties play a secondary role. Elections to the Jogorku Kenesh are now conducted primarily through a majoritarian model that emphasizes individual...

parliamentary elections

Kazakhstan’s August Elections: Who Will Enter the New Parliament?

On July 1, Kazakhstan’s new Constitution will come into force, triggering the dissolution of the current bicameral parliament. According to political observers, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is expected to sign a decree in early July calling elections to a new unicameral legislature, to be known as the Kurultai. No date has yet been formally announced, but analysts expect the vote to take place in the second half of August, most likely on either August 16 or August 23. On June 1, Kazakhstan officially registered a new political party, Adilet, meaning “Justice,” led by Aybek Dadebay, the former head of Tokayev’s presidential administration. As a result, eight political parties are now officially registered ahead of the election campaign, six of which are currently represented in the lower house of parliament. So far, however, none of the parties has shown significant signs of gearing up for the campaign. “Kazakhstan’s political parties know perfectly well that parliamentary elections will take place in the second half of August, that they will be conducted under a proportional representation system, and that skipping the election is not advisable because it could affect party financing,” political analyst Gaziz Abishev wrote on his Telegram channel. “They could already be actively working to revive their party brands and promote the public figures who will become the faces of the campaign. Yet the passivity is obvious.” In his view, internal party, inter-party, and broader elite-level processes are currently underway, suggesting that some form of political transformation is taking place behind the scenes. The emergence of Adilet appears to have influenced the calculations of Kazakhstan’s political class. The arrival of a second openly pro-presidential party introduces a significant element of uncertainty into a system long dominated by Amanat. Amanat traces its roots to former President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s political machine. Originally known as Otan, or “Fatherland,” it became Nur Otan in 2006 before being rebranded as Amanat following the January 2022 unrest. Former presidential candidate Amirzhan Kosanov believes the creation of Adilet reflects Tokayev’s desire to create political competition within the ruling elite while presenting it internationally as evidence of political pluralism. “Given the executive branch’s influence over election commissions and the largely artificial nature of the party system, the campaign beginning in July will most likely resemble a controlled competition between two principal actors: the ruling Amanat party and the new Adilet party,” Kosanov argued. For critics of the system, the upcoming elections increasingly resemble a contest between two pro-presidential forces. Organizationally, Amanat remains a formidable political machine. It inherited from the Nur Otan era an extensive nationwide network of regional branches and primary organizations embedded in large workplaces and institutions. Adilet, meanwhile, has already secured backing from a wide range of business associations, professional groups, technology organizations, creative-industry bodies, and civic initiatives. Its political council also includes senior executives from some of Kazakhstan’s largest companies, including Qarmet, Kazakhtelecom, and Allur Auto. Despite this, few analysts believe Kazakhstan is moving toward an American-style two-party system. Amanat and Adilet share broadly similar political...

parliamentary elections

How Kazakhstan Is Preparing for Parliamentary Elections

Kazakhstan is preparing for a major political reset centered on the introduction of a unicameral parliament, the Kurultai. Until now, legislative power in the country has been exercised by two chambers, the Mazhilis and the Senate. On April 10, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced that elections would take place in August 2026. According to Tokayev, political parties will have a clear planning horizon and enough time to prepare for the campaign and voter outreach. A Stage Already Passed In 2023, Kazakhstan introduced significant changes to its political system. For the first time in 19 years, a mixed electoral model was used in elections to the lower chamber, the Mazhilis. Under this system, 69 deputies were elected via party lists, while 29 were chosen in single-member constituencies, allowing candidates to run independently of party affiliation. This option has now been removed, although the reasons remain unclear. These reforms were presented as part of a broader democratization effort. In the 2023 parliamentary elections, six parties passed the 5% threshold. Amanat, formerly Nur Otan, won 53.9% of the vote, followed by Auyl with 10.9%, Respublica with 8.59%, Aq Jol with 8.41%, the People’s Party of Kazakhstan with 6.8%, and the Nationwide Social Democratic Party (OSDP) with 5.2%. The Baytaq party received 2.3% and did not enter parliament. In practice, however, Amanat has remained the most active force in the Mazhilis. Some initiatives from Aq Jol, traditionally focused on business interests, have also stood out, while other parties have been less visible to voters. Amanat has advantages not available to other parties, including the presence of many senior officials in its ranks. The Auyl party was expected to represent agrarian and conservative interests, but its initiatives have not been clearly articulated. The OSDP, which has long positioned itself as an opposition party, previously claimed it was excluded from parliament. However, once represented in the Mazhilis, its initiatives have largely focused on narrow issues and have had limited impact on the broader political agenda. The People’s Party of Kazakhstan, once known for raising sharp issues, has been less active in the current parliament. Against this backdrop, Aq Jol has been comparatively stronger, showing a greater ability to shape the agenda and articulate clear positions. Baytaq has occupied an environmental niche, but despite the country’s significant ecological challenges, its voice has remained faint, making its prospects of entering the Kurultai uncertain. Respublica, a new party founded by young entrepreneurs, has also struggled to produce notable results. A potential eighth party, Adilet, may soon join the seven officially registered parties. The party has announced its launch and begun the registration process, though it has yet to name a formal leader. Some political analysts have described Adilet as a pro-government party. Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev noted that the concept of multiple pro-government parties is not new in Kazakhstan and suggested that some deputies could shift to Adilet by July. Systemic Criticism Political parties represented in parliament are regularly criticized by analysts for holding positions that closely align with Amanat...