Poverty - The Times Of Central Asia

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Economic Growth

Kyrgyzstan Records Double-Digit Growth as Inflation Stays Above 11%

Kyrgyzstan’s economy grew by 11.1% in the first seven months of 2026, but households also faced double-digit inflation. Annual price growth reached 11.5% in July. The latest poverty figures show that 24% of the population remained below the national poverty line in 2025. According to the latest macroeconomic review by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB), the expansion has been driven primarily by a surge in investment and strong consumer demand. Kyrgyzstan’s growth rate exceeded those reported by several Central Asian neighbors, although the figures cover different periods. Kazakhstan’s economy expanded by 4.1% in January–July. Uzbekistan and Tajikistan grew by 8.5% and 8.2%, respectively, in the first half of the year. The EDB forecasts growth of 10.2% for Kyrgyzstan over 2026 as a whole. Average real wages, adjusted for inflation, rose by 15.3% in January–June. This indicates stronger purchasing power among wage earners on average, but does not establish an improvement across all households. Investment increased by 58.8% over the first seven months. Budget financing for investment increased by about 70%, while bank financing rose to 4.3 times its previous level. Fixed-capital investment financed by foreign direct investment rose to 15.3 times its previous level. Budget revenues also increased by 48.8% in the first half of the year, while the republican budget recorded a surplus equivalent to 6.1% of GDP. Price Growth Remains in Double Digits Annual inflation reached 11.5% in July, up from 11% a month earlier. The pressure is visible in everyday purchases. In July alone, average prices for horsemeat rose by 5.4%, lamb by 4%, and beef by 3.9%, although potatoes became cheaper. Housing and utility costs were also rising rapidly, with annual inflation in that category reaching 11.2%. Fuel prices are another source of pressure. The National Bank says higher global oil prices, amid the conflict in the Middle East and concerns over petroleum supplies, have raised the cost of imported fuel. Those increases then feed into transport and production costs across the economy. By August 24, the National Bank put annual inflation at 11.7%, with prices up 7.3% since the start of the year. On the same day, it kept its policy rate at 12%. The central bank cited persistent inflationary pressure, including higher import costs and production expenses. Its inflation target range is 5%–7%. The EDB expects inflation to end 2026 at about 11.5%, still well above that range. IMF Proposes Changes to Public-Sector Pay The International Monetary Fund has also examined public-sector compensation. In a technical assistance report published on September 2, it notes pay raises of 50% for doctors and 25% for nurses in 2024. The report also records a 63% increase in remuneration for the social sector in 2026. According to the IMF, large, infrequent pay increases can add to inflationary pressures and make government spending more difficult to manage. The IMF recommends moving away from large, episodic increases toward more regular salary adjustments that account for inflation, available fiscal space, and labor market conditions. This would make wage growth and government...

Labor Market

Ashgabat Police Reportedly Crack Down on Non-Resident Workers

In Turkmenistan, police raids targeting non-resident laborers seeking short-term work in the capital are intensifying, according to Turkmen.News, placing additional pressure on citizens from regions that face chronic unemployment at home. Day Laborers Targeted Police in Ashgabat have reportedly been extorting money from non-resident day laborers, threatening them with detention and forced removal from the city. These raids are concentrated near the newly opened transport hub in the Gurtly district, which recently replaced the former central interchange near the Tekin Bazaar, a long-established site for informal employment. For many from Turkmenistan’s regions, Ashgabat offers the only opportunity to earn a daily wage of $2.50 to $3.50. But this marginal lifeline is vanishing as police expel day laborers from Gurtly and threaten to drive non-residents out of the capital entirely. The area has developed its own informal employment system. Several women operate as unofficial coordinators, posing as passengers at the bus stop. They maintain notebooks filled with phone numbers, service prices, and available workers. Locals approach them with tasks, such as moving furniture or doing basic repairs, and are promptly matched with laborers who remain discreetly nearby. Raids and Intimidation Authorities appear intent on dismantling this system. Eyewitnesses say police conduct daily patrols in Gurtly, stopping young men, checking residency documents, and confiscating their earnings. The money is allegedly pocketed by officers, with no official record kept. Victims report being insulted, intimidated, and threatened with deportation to their home provinces before being released following brief “educational conversations.” Such operations are not new. In late October, Ashgabat police issued mass fines to non-resident taxi drivers. During the summer’s UN forum in Avaza, day laborers in Turkmenbashi were reportedly detained en masse, held in temporary facilities, and then forcibly returned to their home region. These actions are part of what appears to be an ongoing, unofficial campaign of pressure against internal migrants. Erasing Poverty from the Capital’s Image Some Ashgabat residents believe the relocation of the main bus hub to the outskirts is part of a broader strategy to conceal poverty behind the capital’s polished facade. “This is an attempt to cleanse the capital of any hints of the real, unsightly side of life,” one resident remarked. Income levels outside the capital remain significantly lower. For many families, irregular work in Ashgabat is their only source of supplemental income. Yet instead of addressing inequality, observers argue that authorities are reinforcing regional discrimination, further marginalizing non-resident workers.

Poverty

Poverty in Central Asia: Who Is Living and Who Is Just Surviving

A new analysis by Ranking.kz reveals that Kazakhstan currently has the most favorable poverty indicators among Central Asian countries, while Tajikistan records the highest levels of deprivation. The findings also reflect significant shifts in global poverty estimates following a revision of the World Bank’s methodology. According to Our World in Data, by 2024, the global number of people living in extreme poverty had risen to 817 million, an increase of 125 million compared to previous figures. However, this jump does not signal worsening global conditions. Instead, it stems from a change in measurement criteria. In June 2024, the World Bank raised the international poverty line from $2.15 to $3 per day in purchasing power parity (PPP), based on 2021 prices. This methodological update expanded the scope of people counted as poor, even as real incomes among the poorest rose by approximately 16%. Sub-Saharan Africa continues to bear the brunt of global poverty. Of the 30 countries with the highest poverty rates, 24 are located on the continent. In Central Asia, Tajikistan ranks as the region’s poorest nation, with 61.3% of its population living on less than $3 per day. In contrast, the poverty rate stands at just 2.74% in Kyrgyzstan, 2.72% in Uzbekistan, and 1.93% in Armenia. Kazakhstan reports the region’s lowest rate of extreme poverty; just 0.04% of the population lives below the international threshold. Data for Turkmenistan is not available. According to Kazakhstan’s National Statistics Bureau, the share of citizens earning less than the cost of the basic food basket declined from 0.2% in 2023 to 0.1% in 2024. For the first time, the gap between urban and rural poverty disappeared; previously, rural areas had higher rates. In absolute terms, 16,500 people lived below the food minimum in the first quarter of 2025. The proportion of the population earning less than the national subsistence minimum also decreased, falling from 5.2% in 2023 to 5% in 2024. The breakdown shows 3.8% in cities and 6.9% in villages. The total number of people below the subsistence minimum dropped to 1 million. As of early 2025, the figure had improved further to 4.5%, with the minimum raised to 52,500 tenge (approximately $98) per capita. In terms of daily consumption, Kazakhstani citizens spent an average of $7 per day in 2024. Based on World Bank data, the international dollar was equivalent to 160.93 tenge, reflecting the amount needed in Kazakhstan to purchase a comparable basket of goods and services to that of $1 in the United States.

Cost of Living

High Praise, Empty Pockets: Turkmenistan May Scrap Benefit Hikes

It seems that average Turkmen citizens will again have to find ways to ration their spending in 2026, and beyond, thanks to a proposal from a member of the country’s Council of Elders. At a session of the Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) on September 19, Elders’ Council member Yazmyrat Atamyradov, who, in fairness, probably drew the short straw before the session started, said that socio-economic conditions in Turkmenistan have reached such a high level that there is no longer a need for cost-of-living increases for salaries, pensions, stipends, and other benefits. "You are bestowing such blessings upon our people, Hero Arkadag!” Atamyradov said in his address. “Our sons and daughters, grandchildren, and great-grandchildren go to school and work without a care in the world. A peaceful, carefree life itself is a priceless treasure and a great asset.” Most of Turkmenistan’s people likely would not agree with Atamyradov’s suggestion, but his words were meant for only one person, Halk Maslahaty Chairman Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov, who was in attendance and thanked Atamyradov for the recommendation. Most of the effusive praise for Turkmenistan’s alleged astounding socio-economic achievements was also directed at Berdimuhamedov, who served as Turkmenistan’s president from late 2006 until March 2022, when he stepped down and his son Serdar took the helm. Changes to Turkmenistan’s constitution in early 2023 made the Halk Maslahaty chairman the highest post in the country. A Deteriorating Economy There is no basis for Atamyratov’s assertion that living conditions are improving in Turkmenistan. The suggestion to cut annual payment increases more likely means the authorities can no longer afford to continue funding cost-of-living increases. Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world, and in the early years after independence, in late 1991, then-President Saparmurat Niyazov forecast the country would soon become a second Kuwait and everyone would be driving Mercedes. It has not worked out like that at all. Turkmenistan has a lot of gas, but only a few customers. The steep drop in gas prices in 2015 devastated Turkmenistan’s economy, which is about 80% dependent on revenue from gas sales, and has never recovered. The first food shortages independent Turkmenistan had ever seen started in 2016. Flour, cooking oil, sugar, eggs, and other basic goods were often not available at state stores where goods are sold at a subsidized price, but have always been available at privately-owned stores and at bazaars, where the price is two or three times more expensive. Eventually, rationing was introduced on bread. Customers were limited to two and sometimes only one churek (flat, round bread) per person. In some areas, police were tasked with monitoring sales to ensure no one bought more than their allotment. Often, there were more customers than bread, and in many places, including the capital, Ashgabat, lines started forming outside state stores before the sun came up. The authorities responded by telling people to line up behind the store so they could not be seen from the street. Fast forward to 2025, where in...

Food Security

Melon Pyramids and Empty Pantries: Tajik and Turkmen Feasts Amid Everyday Shortages

Pyramids of various kinds of melons, fruits laid across the ground to form intricate, traditional patterns, as well as an abundance of fruit, dried fruit, nuts, and bread overflowing from tables, and even fountains, surrounding the edible ground arrangement, and grapes hanging from poles. As an advertisement for national products, a background for international events, or a gift for an ally, Tajikistan is gaining fame for elaborate displays of fruit. It is an amazing sight, with fruits and nuts arranged in patterns that cover large areas of the pavilions and gardens where foreign guests are being entertained. However, as good as these lavish presentations look and taste, these cornucopias are being exhibited in some of Central Asia’s poorest countries, and, unsurprisingly, there has been some discontent and some scandals. For Sale On August 16-17, there was an exhibition of Tajikistan’s products and crafts in the Kazakh capital, Astana, with melon pyramids taking center stage in an exhibition that also featured “over a thousand tons of products: fresh fruits and vegetables, nuts, [and] dried fruits.“It was a return performance for the Tajik “masters” who arrange the exhibitions. Astana hosted a fair of Tajik products in August 2023 that drew a big crowd, some of whom were overly anxious to get their hands on the goods. Dozens of people started taking melons and grapes from the pyramids, breaking shelves and decorations in the process. [caption id="attachment_35359" align="aligncenter" width="1597"] Tajik fair in Astana, 2023; image: public domain[/caption] Impress the Guests One of the most memorable grand displays of fruit occurred when Tajikistan hosted the summit of leaders from the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) on September 27, 2018. On the eve of the summit, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon walked his guests through a garden flanked by enough food to feed a small town for a month. It was the first time such a spread had been laid out for guests at an international gathering, with Rahmon seeming to appreciate having an agricultural background when hosting a diplomatic event. In July 2019, Rahmon met with then-Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov in the northern Tajik town of Isfara. Conflicts along the Kyrgyz-Tajik border were becoming increasingly deadly, and the two presidents met to discuss ways to ease tensions and resolve the festering problems along the frontier. While the two presidents talked, Rahmon guided Jeenbekov through “6 pyramids… of watermelons and melons, as well as almost 20 types of national breads.“ [caption id="attachment_35360" align="aligncenter" width="960"] Sooronbay Jeenbekov and Emomali Rahmon in Isfara; image: press service of the President of the Republic of Tajikistan[/caption] When Dushanbe hosted the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) summit in September 2021, the feast on the eve of the summit was every bit the equal of the CIS summit in 2018 and featured “huge pyramids of fragrant melons and watermelons, carpets of fresh fruit, grapes cascading like a waterfall, and even fountains of melons.” Rahmon brought his fruit feast to St. Petersburg in October 2022 when CIS leaders gathered for an informal CIS summit...

Poverty

Central Asia Cuts Hunger Fivefold in Two Decades, FAO Reports

The number of people facing hunger in Central Asia has fallen sharply over the past two decades, according to a new report from the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). The share of the population suffering from undernourishment dropped from 13.1% in 2005 to just 2.8% in 2024, equivalent to a decline from 7.8 million people to 2.3 million. Much of this progress was achieved before 2019. The COVID-19 pandemic temporarily disrupted that trend: between 2020 and 2021, undernourishment rose to 2.5 million. However, with the introduction of stronger food security policies and an economic rebound, the region has since regained positive momentum. The FAO report notes that a healthy diet in Central Asia now costs an average of $3.78 per person per day. While this is below the global average of $4.46, it remains unaffordable for many low-income households, particularly in rural Tajikistan. In 2024, FAO estimates that approximately 14% of the region’s population, roughly 11.5 million people, still could not afford a balanced diet. Child health indicators have also improved. The prevalence of stunting among children under five has halved since 2012, falling from 14.8% to 7.4%. Rates of acute malnutrition have also declined, and childhood obesity rates have decreased slightly. Nonetheless, persistent challenges remain: anemia affects about one-third of women of reproductive age, and adult obesity is on the rise, increasing from 18.8% to 25.1% over the past decade. In 2024, Tajikistan remained the most food-insecure country in the former Soviet Union. According to the Global Hunger Index published by the International Food Policy Research Institute, 8.7% of its population faces food shortages, placing the country 65th out of 127 worldwide. In a sign of regional engagement, Uzbekistan officially joined the Global Alliance to Combat Hunger and Poverty in December 2024, reinforcing its commitment to the Sustainable Development Goals and to global cooperation on food security.