• KGS/USD = 0.01190 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09438 0.21%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01190 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09438 0.21%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01190 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09438 0.21%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01190 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09438 0.21%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01190 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09438 0.21%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01190 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09438 0.21%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01190 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09438 0.21%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01190 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00211 0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.09438 0.21%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%

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Over a Million Ethnic Kazakhs Have Returned to Kazakhstan Since 1991

Since 1991, over 1.1 million ethnic Kazakhs have returned to live in Kazakhstan, the government has reported. Since the start of this year 7,353 ethnic Kazakhs have received the status of kanda (Kazakh repatriates). Just under half (49.4%) arrived from China, 34.4% came from Uzbekistan, followed by Turkmenistan (6.3%), Mongolia (5.4%) and Russia (3.2%). These kandas have settled in different regions of Kazakhstan, but labor-deficient regions -- the Akmola, Abay, Kostanay, Pavlodar, East, and North Kazakhstan regions -- have been promoted as potential new homes. Kandas resettling in these regions are provided state support, namely a relocation subsidy of KZT 258,400 ($560) per family. The Ministry of Labor has announced that since 2023 the pilot relocation program has implemented a "one window" mechanism for granting kandas status through Kazakhstan's embassies. This initiative allows ethnic Kazakhs to address issues related to visiting Kazakhstan, securing employment, finding housing, and obtaining official status without physically entering the country. To date, 9,569 applications from ethnic Kazakhs have been processed under this new system.

Foreign Investment in Central Asia is Following Demographic Trends

The population growth in Central Asia, combined with worsening demographic situations across the rest of the post-Soviet space, means a gradual shift in power and investment toward the regional powers of Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan. Thanks to their growing markets – unlike Belarus and Russia, where the population is slowly declining, and especially Ukraine – Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan are starting large projects with the participation of foreign investors. In particular, Russia is showing increased interest in Central Asia, with the US and the EU also keen to engage financially. Recently, Kazakhstani political scientist Marat Shibutov noted on social media that politicians have realized the benefits of investing in countries with major population growth. He argued that power dynamics across the post-Soviet space are changing in line with that. Shibutov quoted an article that he co-authored with Yuri Solozobov in May 2019: “according to statistics, in 1991 there were 20 million people in Uzbekistan and 51 million in Ukraine. Now, there are officially 32.6 million in Uzbekistan (experts say about 34 million) and 42 million in Ukraine (the real figure is unknown). But soon, everything is set to change dramatically. In fact, in 2-5 years, Uzbekistan will equal or surpass Ukraine in population – this will be a turning point in the post-Soviet space. First and foremost, Uzbekistan's investment and trade position will improve, especially in the consumer goods segment. Considering the nuclear power plant project being implemented with the help of Russia and the Ustyurt oil and gas fields, Uzbekistan will become a more promising country for foreign investors than Ukraine, whose development will be entirely about defense spending and internal political issues.” Due to the war that started in 2022, Shibutov’s forecast has materialized even faster. According to UN estimates, Ukraine's population this year is barely 37 million. No one has accurate data since the last census in this country was carried out in 2001. As of 2023, the Ministry of Social Policy of Ukraine put the figure even lower than the UN, at 36 million. Thus, after Russia (with a population of over 140 million), Uzbekistan is likely the second most populous country of the former USSR. In Kazakhstan the population is growing even faster than in Uzbekistan. Russian and Kazakh businesses are implementing 135 projects worth $26.5 billion. Additionally, 67 joint projects worth $14 billion are being planned across key economic industries, including machine building, metallurgy, and chemicals. They are expected to create 11,000 jobs. According to Russian ambassador to Kazakhstan Alexei Borodavkin, there are more than 18,000 enterprises with Russian capital in Kazakhstan and about 4,000 joint ventures with Kazakh partners. Overall, Russia and Kazakhstan have investments totaling $33.5 billion across 143 projects. In November last year, a memorandum of cooperation was signed between the countries’ ministries of energy to build three thermal power plants (TPP) in Kazakhstan – Kokshetau TPP, Semey TPP, and Ust-Kamenogorsk TPP. The combined capacity of the new coal-fired facilities will be about 1 GW (Kokshetau TPP 240 MW, Semey TPP 360 MW,...

The Geography of Labor: Where Do Central Asian Migrants Travel To?

Since February 2022, international observers have been predicting changes in labor migration in Central Asia. It is no secret that for 30 years Russia was the main attraction for labor resources in the region, and in the "noughties," Kazakhstan joined as a viable alternative. Over the past two years, the geography of labor migration from Central Asia has expanded somewhat, but still not to the extent that one could say that the region is slipping away from Moscow's economic influence. In Russia itself, despite growing anti-migrant sentiment after the terrorist attack at the Crocus City concert hall, the country's leadership has no intention of refusing to accept migrants from Central Asia. The current phase of Russia's economic development requires a constant inflow of labor resources, so Moscow is even talking about expanding the geography of sources of labor on an industrial scale, particularly to African countries. However, the movement of labor resources from Central Asia to the outside world is a process that benefits both the countries of origin of migrants and those who receive them. The region's countries shed their excess population, thus avoiding possible social explosions, while the receiving countries get workers willing to do low-paid and low-skilled labor. This is true for three of the five Central Asian countries. We do not consider Turkmenistan -- a republic closed to the outside world -- but labor migration from Kazakhstan is more like a "brain drain," which puts it on a par with Russia, which is experiencing similar problems. In the Central Asian republics, the topic of labor migration is still victimized, and the pejorative term "gastarbeiters" remains in common use. Thus, research on these processes is not permanent, which makes it difficult to work with statistical data. And since the largest receiving country is Russia, where chaos reigns regarding labor migration, we can only operate with approximate data. Uzbekistan Let us start with Uzbekistan, the most populous republic in Central Asia. Uzbekistan does not have the same opportunities as Kazakhstan with mineral resources, primarily oil. In Uzbekistan, the rate of labor migration abroad remains the fastest; only the pandemic has been able to affect it. Before the pandemic, in 2019, according to official data, more than 2.5 million Uzbek citizens were listed as labor migrants. In 2021, this number dropped to 1.67 million people, but now, the number of those who left for work has recovered. The main labor migration flows come from Russia - 71%, Kazakhstan - 12%, South Korea - 4% and Turkey - 3%. In the first quarter of 2024, cross-border remittances to Uzbekistan increased from $2.3 billion to $2.5 billion. Russia's share dropped to 68% (78-87% in previous years). Kyrgyzstan Russia, Turkey, and Kazakhstan are also the main destinations for migrants from Kyrgyzstan. South Korea and the UK have been added to the list recently. According to open-source data, in 2022, 1.2 million labor migrants from Kyrgyzstan were registered in Russia, with about 30,000 in Turkey and Kazakhstan. In Kyrgyzstan, labor migration has become important...

Central Asia as an Emerging Economic Region

Central Asia, spanning an area from the Caspian Sea in the west to China in the east and from Afghanistan in the south to Russia in the north, is rapidly emerging as a significant economic block. Comprising five post-Soviet states — Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan — this region is distinguished by its rich natural resources and strategic geographic position, as well as its natural beauty and cultural heritage. With a combined population of around 75 million people, Central Asia has emerged as a dynamically developing market that is increasingly attracting global interest. The transformation unfolding in Central Asia holds both promise and significant challenges for its residents and foreign investors alike. This shift is driven by increasing calls for political reform, the dynamism of a youthful population, and an imperative for sustainable development alongside the pressing need to diversify economic bases.   Structural changes following independence in 1991 set the stage for robust growth from 2000s onward Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Central Asian countries faced the challenge of transitioning from centrally-planned to market-oriented economies. This period was marked by significant economic difficulties across the region including negative GDP growth and hyperinflation, compounded by the complexities of privatization, legal reforms, and both social and political instability. The nations responded with different development strategies aimed at market liberalization, infrastructure improvement, and the utilization of natural resources. By 2000, Central Asia experienced a noticeable economic resurgence, marking a striking contrast to the conditions in 1991. In that year, Uzbekistan's GDP growth was at -0.5%, Kyrgyzstan at -7.9%, and Kazakhstan at -11%. A decade later, these countries reported positive growth rates of 4.2%, 5.3%, and 13.5%, respectively. This remarkable turnaround can be attributed to the "low base effect," where the initially low economic indicators set the stage for significant improvements over time. The total GDP of Central Asian countries has grown seven times since the beginning of the 2000s. In comparison with the global economic growth rate of +2.6% annually, the Central Asian region grew by an average of 6.2% between 2000 and 2023 according to IMF data. All Central Asian states are forecasted to outpace the IMF’s projected growth rate for emerging markets and developing economies 2024 which stands at 4.2%; however, actual growth will depend on reforms and foreign investment. Kazakhstan has set the highest growth goal with a five-year target GDP increase to $450 billion, which would require an achievable but challenging 6% annual growth. As illustrated below, Kazakhstan stands out as the economic powerhouse of Central Asia with a GDP almost 1.5 times that of all the other countries combined.     Labor markets: Optimal demographics for growth and innovation According to United Nations data, approximately 75 million people live in Central Asia, representing 1% of the world’s population. Relative to the global median age, all of Central Asia boasts a young population. A youthful population fuels economic growth by replenishing the workforce, driving innovation, and expanding consumer markets. It supports older demographics...

Uzbekistan’s Population Rises to Almost 37 Million

According to data produced by the Statistics Agency of Uzbekistan, the country's permanent population reached 36,963,262 on 1 April this year; an increase of 2.1% or 163,500 residents, compared to the beginning of 2023. Remarkably, records indicate that from January to April, an additional 54,500 people were either born or settled in the country each month and the number of permanent residents is increasing by 1,800 people per day. Amongst the growing population, 56.3% are citizens of working age and as recorded on 1 January, men outnumber women by 250,266.