Kazakhstan Faces Record Power Deficit as Electricity Shortfall Hits 2.4 Billion kWh

Kazakhstan has experienced its most significant electricity imbalance in recent years. According to data from Energyprom.kz, the gap between electricity production and consumption reached 2.4 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) in 2024, an increase of 200 million kWh from 2023, when the shortfall stood at 2.2 billion kWh. While the country’s total generation amounted to 117.9 billion kWh, domestic consumption exceeded 120.4 billion kWh. Imports Offset Domestic Shortfalls To address this growing energy deficit, Kazakhstan primarily imports electricity from Russia. Smaller volumes are supplied by Kyrgyzstan, although these are typically part of Russian transit deliveries to Kyrgyz consumers. Despite these imports, domestic electricity generation continues to grow at a modest pace. In 2024, total generation rose by 4.2%, with a 3% year-on-year increase recorded in the first two months of 2025. Nevertheless, the production boost has not been sufficient to meet demand, necessitating continued reliance on external suppliers. Decline in Coal Dependence One notable trend is the gradual reduction in Kazakhstan’s dependence on coal-fired thermal power plants (TPPs), traditionally among the most polluting energy sources. In 2024, the share of coal-fired generation declined from 77.4% to 74.9%, equivalent to approximately 88.4 billion kWh of total output. In contrast, the share of alternative power sources increased. Hydroelectric power plants (HPPs) contributed 9.5% of total generation, up 1.8 percentage points year-on-year, while gas turbine power plants (GTPPs) accounted for 10.1%, a 0.3-point increase. Renewable energy sources, including wind, solar, and biogas, produced 6.4 billion kWh, representing 5.4% of total electricity output. Revised Forecasts and Growing Challenges The Ministry of Energy of the Republic of Kazakhstan has updated its projections to reflect the sector’s challenges. As of early 2025, officials estimate the country’s electricity deficit could grow to 5.7 billion kWh by year-end. This revision stems from downgraded forecasts for generation volumes, which are now projected at 117.1 billion kWh, down from an earlier estimate of 121.8 billion kWh. Expectations for the commissioning of new generation capacity have also been lowered, further exacerbating the shortfall. Nonetheless, government planners remain cautiously optimistic. If several large-scale energy projects move forward on schedule, the deficit could shrink to 2.6 billion kWh by the end of 2026. A full build-out of planned capacity could even lead to a surplus. New Capacity and Long-Term Plans The government has outlined plans to construct 59 new energy facilities with a combined capacity of 26.4 gigawatts (GW). These include both new builds and upgrades to existing plants. Major initiatives involve constructing a nuclear power plant (2.4 GW) and a third state district power station (GRES-3) with 2.6 GW of capacity. Additionally, 11 regional centers are set to receive combined-cycle gas turbines with a total capacity of 4.5 GW. Renewable energy is also a key focus. By 2029, Kazakhstan aims to commission four large wind power plants equipped with energy storage systems, totaling 3.8 GW in capacity. These projects are being developed through intergovernmental agreements with investors from the United Arab Emirates, France, and China.

Kyrgyzstan Turns to Alternative Energy to Address Power Deficit

Expanding the use of alternative energy sources is key to overcoming Kyrgyzstan’s persistent electricity shortages, Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Bakyt Torobayev said during a meeting at the Ministry of Energy on March 27. Torobayev acknowledged the country’s chronic power deficit and underscored the need for investment in renewable energy development. “Increasing power generation is today’s top priority,” he stated. In response to the ongoing energy crisis, the Kyrgyz government declared a state of emergency in the energy sector from August 1, 2023, to December 31, 2026. The move was intended to accelerate emergency measures to counter the impacts of climate change, reduced water flows in the Naryn River, a major source of hydropower, rising energy demand, and limited generating capacity. Power Imports Fill the Gap Although Kyrgyzstan has the potential to generate 142 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) annually, current production stands at just 14 billion kWh, approximately 10% of its hydropower capacity. According to Energy Minister Taalaibek Ibrayev, the country currently generates 3,450 megawatts of electricity, while demand has risen to 3,600 megawatts. In 2024, Kyrgyzstan consumed 18.3 billion kWh, an increase of 1.1 billion kWh over the previous year. Hydropower plants accounted for 12.77 billion kWh, while coal-fired thermal plants produced 1.76 billion kWh. Small private hydropower plants added 156.2 million kWh, and solar installations contributed 0.17 million kWh. To close the gap, Kyrgyzstan imported 3.63 billion kWh of electricity in 2024, an increase of 141.7 million kWh from 2023. Expanding Generation Capacity To alleviate the crisis, the government has launched several major hydropower construction projects. The Ministry of Energy announced ongoing work to install a second hydroelectric unit at the Kambarata-2 Hydropower Plant (HPP). The plant is designed for three units with a combined capacity of 360 megawatts (120 MW each). Currently, only the first unit is operational. The addition of the second unit will significantly enhance the plant’s output. Meanwhile, construction has also begun on the much larger Kambarata-1 HPP on the Naryn River. When completed, it will become Kyrgyzstan’s largest hydropower facility, with a projected capacity of 1,860 megawatts and an expected annual output of 5.6 billion kWh, enough to substantially address the country’s energy shortfall. Embracing Solar and Wind As part of its energy diversification strategy, Kyrgyzstan has also initiated solar and wind energy projects. In 2024, the country began building a 400-megawatt solar power plant and a 100-megawatt wind farm, marking significant steps toward reducing reliance on imported electricity and fossil fuels.