Electricity supply - The Times Of Central Asia

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Power Grid

August 14 Blackout: Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Continue to Dispute Its Cause

The blame game over Central Asia’s August 14 blackout continues. Kazakhstan’s Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov says the large-scale blackout began with the shutdown of two generating units at the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Plant (HPP) in Kyrgyzstan. Bishkek does not dispute that the failure occurred but rejects the claim that it was the direct cause of the subsequent outages across several countries. Akkenzhenov identified the events in Kyrgyzstan as the starting point of the emergency. According to him, the initial disturbance occurred on August 14 at 2:37 p.m. Kazakhstan time, or 3:37 p.m. in Kyrgyzstan, when generating units No. 1 and No. 2 at the Toktogul HPP went offline. The loss of generation altered operating conditions in Central Asia’s interconnected power system and led to a redistribution of power flows in southern Kazakhstan. A government commission in Kazakhstan is expected to make the final determination. Kazakhstan’s grid operator KEGOC had earlier provided a more detailed chronology. At 2:37 p.m., three 500 kV transmission lines tripped, separating southern Kazakhstan and the Central Asian grid from the rest of Kazakhstan’s power system. About 2,810 MW of consumer load was temporarily cut off. KEGOC later said that immediately beforehand, two generating units at the Toktogul HPP, with a combined capacity of about 600 MW, had gone offline. The resulting changes in power flows overloaded Kazakhstan’s North–East–South transmission corridor, triggering emergency protection systems. Akkenzhenov said the protection systems had worked effectively and praised KEGOC’s response. Kazakhstan’s power system was restored in approximately 2.5 hours. Kyrgyzstan acknowledges that the two units went offline. The country’s Energy Ministry described the incident as the “initial disturbance” in the interconnected power system, but stressed that the first event in an emergency sequence cannot automatically be considered the cause of all subsequent outages. According to its account, by 3:55 p.m. Kyrgyzstan time — 2:55 p.m. in Kazakhstan — the frequency in the interconnected power system had returned to the normal 50 Hz. At that point, Kyrgyzstan was also supplying neighboring power systems with about 250 MW. Bishkek maintains that the outage affecting the Almaty power hub occurred after normal frequency had already been restored. Kyrgyz energy officials therefore consider it premature to directly attribute all subsequent events to the failure at the Toktogul HPP. The disagreement, therefore, is less about what happened first than about the causal link between the initial failure and the chain of outages that followed. Why the Regional Grid Is Vulnerable The vulnerability is rooted in the architecture of the region’s power system itself. During the Soviet period, its power plants and high-voltage transmission lines were designed to operate as a single interconnected system rather than around today’s national borders. Energy ties weakened after the collapse of the Soviet Union, but in recent years the countries have again expanded parallel operation of their power systems. Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan are connected through the Integrated Power System of Central Asia. Cross-border power flows are coordinated by the Energia Coordinating Dispatch Center in Tashkent. Hydropower in Kyrgyzstan and...

Electricity supply

Kazakhstan Targets End to Electricity Deficit by 2027

Just days after a major disruption hit power systems across Central Asia, Kazakhstan reaffirmed its plan to fully cover domestic electricity demand by the first quarter of 2027. By the end of next year, the Energy Ministry expects the country to have a surplus of about 1.3 billion kWh. That margin would still leave relatively little room for error because it is equivalent to only about 1% of the electricity Kazakhstan consumed in 2025, when demand grew by 3.8%. The August 14 outage affected parts of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Power was cut to some consumers in Almaty, Kazakhstan’s largest city, which has a population of about 2.4 million. The precise chain of events remains unclear. Kazakhstan’s national grid operator KEGOC said the disruption began when two hydrogenerators at Kyrgyzstan’s Toktogul Hydropower Plant shut down, sharply changing power flows and overloading Kazakhstan’s North-East-South transmission corridor. Kyrgyzstan’s Energy Ministry later acknowledged that the Toktogul shutdown was the initial disturbance but said it should not automatically be treated as the direct cause of the subsequent outages elsewhere in Central Asia. A special commission is investigating the incident, although public statements so far have not identified its chair. The outage exposed a risk in regional grid connections. Kazakhstan’s grid is connected to Russia and neighboring Central Asian systems. These links allow electricity to move across borders, but a sudden loss of generation or a major transmission failure can also affect several countries in quick succession. Kazakhstan has been a net electricity importer for several years. In 2025, the country generated 123.1 billion kWh and consumed 124.6 billion kWh. Electricity imports from Russia totaled 4.64 billion kWh, compared with exports of 2.16 billion kWh in the opposite direction. The net inflow from Russia fell from 3.41 billion kWh in 2024 to 2.48 billion kWh in 2025. Electricity consumption increased by 3.8% in 2025, while peak demand reached a record 17.724 GW on December 18. Kazakhstan is also seeking to attract energy-intensive industries and large data centers. Those expectations are reflected in longer-term development plans, which already include 7.8 GW of new and modernized coal-fired generation by 2030, with investment estimated at more than $15.5 billion. The authorities expect to close the remaining short-term deficit by rapidly commissioning new generating capacity. Around 2.6 GW is scheduled to come online in 2026. Four gas-fired power plants and expansion projects at two existing power stations account for part of that capacity, while ten new renewable energy facilities are also planned. The Energy Ministry says these projects should allow Kazakhstan to fully meet its electricity needs by the end of the first quarter of 2027. A further 845 MW is planned for 2027, of which 570 MW would come from renewable projects. By the end of that year, the ministry expects an electricity surplus of around 1.3 billion kWh. Renewable energy is expanding alongside Kazakhstan’s continued reliance on conventional generation. Thermal power plants accounted for 74.4% of electricity generation in 2025. Solar and wind facilities, along with biogas plants, provided 6.1%. The...

Power deficit

Kyrgyzstan to Continue Electricity Imports in 2026 to Cover Power Deficit

Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers has confirmed that the country will continue importing electricity in 2026 to compensate for a persistent shortfall in domestic power generation, Deputy Energy Minister Altynbek Rysbekov said during a meeting of a parliamentary committee. According to Rysbekov, Kyrgyzstan currently produces around 14.5 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity per year, while overall demand exceeds domestic supply by approximately 4.5 billion kilowatt-hours. To bridge the gap, the country imported about 4.3 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2025, and officials expect similar volumes will be required next year. Rysbekov said electricity imports remain necessary to meet consumption needs, particularly during periods of peak demand. Electricity is sold to households at a socially regulated tariff that does not fully reflect production and import costs, with the difference absorbed by the national power company, NENK, placing a continued strain on the utility’s finances. The deputy minister acknowledged that reliance on imported electricity reflects deeper structural challenges in Kyrgyzstan’s energy sector. The country remains heavily dependent on hydropower, with the Toktogul Hydroelectric Power Station alone supplying about 40% of the country’s electricity, leaving generation vulnerable to fluctuating water levels at major reservoirs. Reduced inflows and steadily rising domestic consumption have contributed to recurring electricity shortages in recent years. Officials said the government’s medium- and long-term strategy is aimed at reducing dependence on electricity imports by expanding domestic generation capacity and diversifying energy sources. Rysbekov noted that efforts are underway to attract investment into renewable energy projects, including wind and solar power, alongside upgrades to existing infrastructure. The Energy Ministry has previously said that increasing non-hydropower generation is essential to improving energy security and reducing seasonal risks, particularly during dry years. However, officials have cautioned that new capacity will take time to come online, making electricity imports unavoidable in the near term. Kyrgyzstan has relied on electricity imports from neighboring countries during periods of deficit for much of the past decade, a pattern authorities say will continue until long-standing imbalances between supply and demand in the energy sector are addressed.

Electricity supply

Rahmon Outlines Measures to Address Tajikistan’s Winter Power Shortages

President Emomali Rahmon has acknowledged that Tajikistan’s population continues to endure severe electricity rationing during the winter months, and has outlined steps the government is taking to alleviate the crisis. “We are fully aware of the challenges faced by the people of Tajikistan during the period of temporary restrictions on electricity supply,” Rahmon said in his annual address to parliament on December 16, adding that authorities are implementing all necessary measures to address the issue. Rahmon attributed the shortages primarily to rapid population growth and the expansion of industrial production, both of which have significantly increased domestic electricity consumption. He also cited unfavorable weather conditions, including below-average rainfall last autumn, which reduced water inflows into reservoirs that supply the country’s hydropower plants. He noted that since independence, 1.3 million new homes have been built to accommodate over 8.4 million people. In the past seven years alone, 2,600 new industrial enterprises have begun operations, further raising electricity demand. Despite these pressures, Tajikistan has steadily increased electricity production. Over the past decade, annual generation has risen by 7 billion kilowatt-hours, from 17.2 billion in 2015 to 24.2 billion in 2025, an increase of approximately 40%. However, domestic demand is projected to grow by an additional 31% by 2030 compared to 2025 levels. Over the past ten years, investments in the energy sector have added 1,017 megawatts to the country’s installed capacity. A further 200 megawatts were gained through the rehabilitation and modernization of existing plants. One of the most recent projects was the modernization of the Kairakkum Hydroelectric Power Plant, completed in November 2025, which increased its capacity from 114 megawatts to 174 megawatts. While Tajikistan possesses vast hydropower potential, it has long struggled with chronic energy shortages. In response, the government has prioritized large-scale hydropower projects, particularly the Rogun Dam and Hydropower Plant, which is expected to be central to achieving domestic energy security and establishing Tajikistan as a regional electricity exporter. Rahmon announced that the third generating unit of the Rogun plant is scheduled for commissioning in September 2027, marking a key milestone on the path to full energy independence. In parallel, construction has begun on two large solar power plants, each with a capacity of 250 megawatts, in the Sughd and Khatlon regions. Both facilities are expected to be operational by August 2026. He also emphasized the importance of improving energy efficiency alongside expanding generation capacity. Electricity losses remain high, exceeding 3 billion kilowatt-hours annually. Rahmon called for accelerating the rollout of a nationwide digital billing system, which he said has already reduced losses. The introduction of modern digital billing and payment technologies revealed that 30% to 40% of households were previously not paying for electricity. Since the system’s implementation, losses have declined. In the first 11 months of 2025, total electricity losses stood at approximately 3 billion kilowatt-hours, 500 million kilowatt-hours less than during the same period the previous year.

Electricity supply

Uzbekistan Announces New Electricity Rationing Amid Power Shortages

Uzbekistan has announced a new electricity rationing schedule as power shortages strain the national grid. The Ministry of Energy said temporary evening outages would help stabilize supply while repairs and emergency measures continue. The outages, which began this week, are concentrated during peak hours between 5:00 p.m. and 9:00 p.m. and are expected to last until mid-January. Causes of the Shortfall The crisis stems from a major failure at the Syrdarya thermal power plant, one of the country’s largest. A newly installed Mitsubishi gas turbine suffered a mechanical fault in late November, forcing the station to shut down part of its capacity. A replacement 114-ton rotor was delivered by air on December 8, and engineers expect to finish installation and testing in four weeks. Seasonal factors have also reduced the available power supply. With winter’s shorter daylight hours, output from solar stations has dropped significantly, increasing the load on the grid. An unexpected gas supply disruption has further strained generation: Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamakhmudov revealed that an accident in a neighboring country’s network cut Uzbekistan’s gas intake by about 6 million cubic meters per day. Natural gas fuels a large share of the country’s power plants, so this drop in fuel supply, combined with cloudy weather, has constrained electricity production. “Because of rain, there was neither wind nor sun,” Mirzamakhmudov said. These factors combined have left the grid struggling to meet peak demand in early December. Peak-Hour Outages to Balance Demand Officials have emphasized that rolling blackouts will be kept brief and targeted; each outage is not expected to last more than about two hours, and consumers will be notified in advance whenever possible. By shedding some load at peak times, the grid can avoid more dangerous unplanned breakdowns and ensure critical facilities remain powered. Residents have also been urged to use electricity sparingly and to monitor official announcements, rather than panic if an interruption occurs. The Energy Ministry has stressed that rumors of any nationwide “blackout” are unfounded, and any power cuts will be localized and limited in scope, not a return to the wide-ranging outages seen in the past. Citizens have been cautioned against spreading unverified information on social media and encouraged to rely on updates from authorities. Winter Energy Challenges and Reforms Winter months have historically tested Uzbekistan’s energy infrastructure. In previous years, electricity deficits forced scheduled outages – commonly known as rolling blackouts – across the country. However, officials note that the situation has improved markedly due to new power projects and efficiency measures. According to Energy Ministry data, the volume of electricity consumption that had to be curtailed through such restrictions fell from about 4 billion kWh in 2013 to just 357 million kWh in 2024. Even during the Central Asian energy crisis of winter 2022, Uzbekistan’s forced power cuts totaled around 2 billion kWh, a figure that has since sharply declined as new capacity comes online. Uzbekistan has been racing to expand its electricity generation to meet growing demand and reduce chronic winter shortages....

Renewable energy

Kyrgyzstan’s Renewable Pivot and the Strategic Weight of China’s Rising Role

China’s energy engagement in Central Asia has undergone a quiet but decisive transformation since 2018. What was once a relationship built almost entirely on pipelines, hydrocarbons, and state-backed fossil fuel projects is now expanding into a much more diversified portfolio in which renewable energy plays an increasingly central role. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan were the first to attract large-scale Chinese commitments in solar and wind power, yet Kyrgyzstan is quickly emerging as the newest frontier in this shift. Recent agreements demonstrate how Bishkek is rapidly positioning itself within China’s clean energy expansion. In 2022, Kyrgyzstan signed an agreement with Chinese investors to build a 1-gigawatt solar plant in Issyk-Kul. Furthermore, the government concluded another agreement with Shenzhen Energy Group for the construction of two additional power plants, one solar and one wind. The Energy Ministry has also reached an investment deal with States Technology Co. and San Energy Co. for a 250-megawatt solar facility in Batken. These projects indicate that Chinese capital is not only filling Kyrgyzstan’s immediate energy gaps, but is also beginning to reshape the country’s long-term energy structure. This push toward solar and wind arrives at a critical moment. Kyrgyzstan remains overwhelmingly dependent on hydropower, which generates more than 90% of the country’s electricity. Yet this climate-sensitive resource is now far less stable than in the past. Shifts in water levels driven by changing weather patterns have introduced new uncertainties into the country’s ability to meet domestic demand. At the same time, electricity consumption has surged at an unprecedented rate, rising by nearly one billion kilowatt hours in a single year due to newly launched industrial enterprises and rapid residential construction. The combination of climate volatility and soaring consumption has placed the energy system under severe strain. The government has declared a three-year energy emergency and introduced consumption restrictions designed to save approximately 40 kilowatt hours per month. Under these conditions, diversifying away from near-total reliance on hydropower is no longer optional but an urgent strategic necessity. Solar and wind investments offer a viable path forward. Expanding renewable capacity will give Kyrgyzstan a more predictable and resilient energy base, enabling the country to better manage seasonal shortages and climate-driven disruptions. Kyrgyzstan also imports all of its fossil fuels. As renewable capacity expands and the use of electric vehicles increases, the country could gradually reduce its dependence on oil imports from Russia, easing both financial pressures and geopolitical exposure. For this reason, cooperation with China represents more than a set of commercial transactions. It is evolving into a strategic pillar of Kyrgyzstan’s broader effort to strengthen energy security and modernize its power system. Chinese companies bring financing, technology, and implementation speed, all of which are essential for a country facing immediate and long-term energy risks. The benefits may extend beyond the domestic market. With sufficient renewable capacity, Kyrgyzstan could eventually re-enter regional electricity trade as an exporter. Some estimates suggest that cross-border energy sales could generate up to 220 million dollars annually in foreign currency earnings, providing a significant...