Qosh Tepa canal - The Times Of Central Asia

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Afghanistan’s Qosh Tepa Canal Sparks Water Security Concerns in Central Asia

Afghanistan is rapidly advancing construction of the Qosh Tepa Canal, a large-scale water infrastructure project in the north of the country that could have far-reaching consequences for its Central Asian neighbors, according to Euronews. The 285-kilometer canal aims to divert an estimated 25-30% of the Amu Darya River’s flow to irrigate more than 500,000 hectares of farmland. The Amu Darya is one of Central Asia’s principal water sources, flowing through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan. Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, both downstream countries, depend heavily on the river for agriculture and hydroelectric power. Experts warn the canal could reduce Uzbekistan’s water intake by 15% and Turkmenistan’s by as much as 80%, with potential consequences including reduced crop yields, job losses, deepened poverty, and even cross-border tensions or migration. Although Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan are not directly linked to the Amu Darya, the ripple effects could still reach them. Azamatkhan Amirtayev, leader of Kazakhstan’s Baytaq party, cautioned that Uzbekistan may compensate by drawing more water from the Syr Darya River, thereby reducing Kazakhstan’s water supply by up to 40%. Environmental concerns are also mounting. The Aral Sea, already severely degraded by decades of mismanagement, may face further deterioration. “This project could be the last nail in the coffin for the Aral Sea,” said regional water expert Bulat Yessekin. He urged Central Asian countries to engage Afghanistan through offers of shared energy and food in exchange for coordinated water management. The canal’s implications were a key topic at the recent Water Security and Transboundary Water Use conference, where participants warned that it threatens to reverse years of regional cooperation aimed at restoring the Aral Sea. While Central Asian countries participate in international water-sharing frameworks, Afghanistan does not. Its Taliban-led government remains unrecognized internationally and is not bound by existing treaties. However, diplomatic ties are evolving. Uzbekistan has opened channels of cooperation with Kabul, and both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have removed the Taliban from their lists of banned organizations. Afghanistan’s Deputy Foreign Minister Mohammad Naeem Wardak expressed openness to dialogue. “The Qosh Tepa canal will not be to the detriment of anyone,” he stated. Kazakhstan, which chairs the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea in 2025, has proposed using the platform to initiate talks. The country’s Ministry of Water Resources emphasized that any solution must involve regional cooperation and the adoption of water-saving technologies to reduce wastage.

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Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal Could Impact Kazakhstan’s Water Security

The construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal in Afghanistan and its potential implications for Central Asia’s water security were central topics at the recent international conference, Water Security and Transboundary Water Use: Challenges and Solutions, held in Astana. Delegates from Turkey, Israel, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Afghanistan, and Turkmenistan convened to address the canal’s possible repercussions and broader issues of regional water distribution. Potential Threats to the Syr Darya Kazakhstan’s Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation, Aslan Abdraimov, warned that the Qosh-Tepa Canal could significantly reduce the flow of the Syr Darya River, with direct consequences for the already depleted Aral Sea. While Kazakhstan does not share a border with Afghanistan, the canal's impact is expected to ripple across the region. “No sharp fluctuations in water resources are expected in the near term, but in the long term, a reduction in the Syr Darya’s flow is inevitable,” Abdraimov stated. He emphasized that this would further strain the fragile water balance in the Aral Sea basin. The Aral Sea’s degradation has been ongoing for decades, largely due to the diversion of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers for agricultural use, primarily for irrigating cotton and wheat fields. These diversions have contributed heavily to the sea’s dramatic shrinkage. Azamatkhan Amirtayev, chairman of Kazakhstan’s Baytak Party, expressed concern that the Qosh-Tepa Canal could divert 25-30% of the Amu Darya’s flow. “This means that Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan will receive less water. Consequently, Uzbekistan may draw more from the Syr Darya, leading to reduced water availability for Kazakhstan, potentially by 30-40%,” Amirtayev said. He urged for regional cooperation and scientifically informed policymaking to mitigate water losses. The Qosh-Tepa Canal and Its Regional Consequences The Qosh-Tepa Canal, under construction in northern Afghanistan, is designed to stretch 285 kilometers and span approximately 100 meters in width. Once operational, it is expected to irrigate over 500,000 hectares of farmland by diverting up to 10 cubic kilometers of water annually from the Amu Darya, roughly a quarter of the river’s average flow. Such a significant withdrawal could disrupt the hydrological balance across Central Asia. Reduced flows in the Syr Darya may accelerate the desiccation of the Aral Sea and exacerbate ecological degradation in Kazakhstan’s downstream regions. Experts at the conference underscored the urgency of strengthening regional water diplomacy and establishing new cooperative frameworks to ensure sustainable water usage and prevent environmental disasters. Hope for Dialogue Afghan representatives have previously signaled a willingness to engage in dialogue on water resource management. Observers suggest that joint initiatives in water management could play a key role in easing regional tensions and improving environmental outcomes. As the region faces mounting water stress due to climate change, population growth, and infrastructure development, coordinated action among Central Asian states and Afghanistan is increasingly seen as essential for long-term water security.

Qosh Tepa canal Bilateral Trade Bilateral Relations Taliban Afghanistan

Uzbekistan Sees Opportunities in Afghanistan

Uzbekistan’s business relations with neighboring Afghanistan are booming. In 2024, Uzbek-Afghan trade came to some $1.1 billion, and more than $1 billion of that was Uzbek exports to Afghanistan. It seems after the February 22-23 visit of Taliban acting Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Abdul Ghani Baradar to Uzbekistan, that figure is likely to continue climbing. Baradar met with Uzbek Prime Minister Abdullo Aripov and Deputy Prime Minister Jamshid Khojayev to discuss trade and investment, which is essentially the basis of Uzbekistan’s relations with Taliban-ruled Afghanistan. The immediate results of these talks were modest, but projects due to start in the near future offer substantial profits for both Uzbekistan and Afghanistan. Uzbekistan agreed to lift restrictions on imports of Afghan agricultural goods, which facilitated another agreement establishing a free economic zone in Uzbekistan’s border area that would have factories for processing pine nuts and cotton from Afghanistan. Agricultural goods are the bulk of Afghanistan’s exports to Uzbekistan, which is not surprising since more than 40 years of war have prevented Afghanistan from building many plants and factories for producing finished goods. A report from November 2024 said in the first ten months of the year, Uzbekistan’s exports to Afghanistan came to some $855.9 million, while Afghan exports to Uzbekistan amounted to only some $28.3 million. Power On Uzbekistan is the leading exporter of electricity to Afghanistan, supplying nearly 60% of Afghanistan’s electricity imports, and that amount could increase soon. Baradar’s delegation discussed progress on the 500 kV transmission line from Uzbekistan’s Surkhan region to Dashti-Alvan, near the Baghlan provincial capital Pul-e-Khumri, which will increase Uzbekistan’s electricity exports to Afghanistan by some 70%. Construction of the 260-kilometer transmission line started in 2018 and has been repeatedly delayed. Baradar said Uzbek officials agreed to cut the cost of building the transmission line from $252 million to $222 million. Turkmenistan is also considering building a 500 kV transmission line to Dashti-Alvan. Uzbek Deputy Prime Minister Khojayev and Baradar reviewed progress at Afghanistan’s Toti-Mardan gas field, just south of the border with Turkmenistan, which is believed to contain vast reserves of natural gas. In November 2024, Uzbekistan signed a ten-year contract to develop the gas field, pledging to invest $100 million in the project each year. According to reports about Baradar’s recent visit, drilling at the site is expected to begin soon. Prime Minister Aripov said Uzbek investors were already preparing to start construction of a cement plant in Afghanistan’s Samangan Province. Taliban officials have been offering Uzbek companies opportunities in Afghanistan’s mining sector for months. The Taliban acting minister of mines and petroleum, Hidayatullah Badri, was part of Baradar’s delegation and he met with Uzbek officials to discuss cooperation in developing Afghanistan’s mineral resources. The Afghan delegation again proposed Uzbek participation in developing mining sites, but there was no word in reports on any agreements. Aripov mentioned Uzbekistan was interested in the exploration and extraction of oil and gas, both of which Uzbekistan needs for domestic consumption, but did not mention mining....

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Turkmenistan and Afghanistan Discuss Collaborative Projects

On March 4th, a large Afghan delegation led by Nooruddin Azizi, Minister of Industry and Trade of Afghanistan, participated in a Turkmen-Afghan business forum and exhibition of Afghan goods in Ashgabat. Issues discussed included Turkmen-Afghan partnerships in trade, industry, agriculture, transport, communications, and electricity supply. Also on the agenda were oil and gas which alongside textiles, comprise Turkmenistan’s main exports to Afghanistan. As reported by the Turkmen Foreign Ministry, special attention was paid to the construction of the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline and the Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan (TAP) high-voltage power transmission line. The group also focused on the establishment of transport routes and in particular, railways from Turkmenistan to Afghanistan. Azizi emphasized the desire of the Afghan business sector to further increase trade with Turkmenistan, develop Afghanistan’s infrastructure, and exploit the transit potential of both countries. Afghan TOLOnews, quoting Mergen Gurdov, head of the Chamber of Commerce and Industry of Turkmenistan, reported that in 2023, trade between Turkmenistan and Afghanistan generated $457 million and this January alone, $46 million. The agro-industrial sector was cited as a promising field for Turkmen-Afghan cooperation, with the Turkmen Foreign Ministry raising the issue of transboundary water resources. Turkmenistan insists that the use of water involves cooperation with neighboring countries, conducted in accordance with international law, and based on principles of mutual respect and in the spirit of traditional good neighborliness. Afghan Minister Azizi pledged that regarding the use of transboundary water resources and construction of water facilities to further the prosperity of his people, Kabul will honour principles of mutual consent and respect for neighboring countries, especially Turkmenistan, with whom Afghanistan has long maintained an amicable relationship. The issue came to the fore last month following Afghanistan’s announcement that construction has begun on the second phase of the Qosh Tepa Canal; a project prioritized by the Taliban- led government since early 2022. By diverting water from the Amu Darya River, the canal will convert 550,000 hectares of desert into farmland in northern Afghanistan, but could also have an adverse effect on agriculture in downstream Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan.