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Energy Security

Kazakhstan Expects to Double Renewable Energy Capacity by 2029

Kazakhstan expects to fully meet domestic electricity demand by early 2027 and move into a stable power surplus by 2029, partly through a planned doubling of renewable energy capacity, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said at a government meeting. Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan’s power system currently includes 254 generation facilities, including 172 renewable energy installations. Conventional energy sources still dominate the country’s power mix. Coal-fired plants account for 13.7 gigawatts (GW) of installed capacity, gas-fired plants for 7.1 GW, and large hydropower stations for 2.5 GW. Kazakhstan’s total installed generating capacity stands at 27.1 GW, while renewable energy facilities account for 3.8 GW. Kazakhstan generated a record 123.1 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity last year, while consumption reached 124.6 billion kWh. This year, output is expected to rise further to 126.5 billion kWh, the ministry said. The gap between production and consumption has been narrowing steadily, and the government plans to commission 13.3 GW of new capacity by the end of 2029, including 5.9 GW from renewable energy sources. “By 2029, 13.3 GW of new capacity will be commissioned. Of this volume, 12.56 GW will come from entirely new generation facilities, while 0.74 GW will replace existing capacity,” Akkenzhenov said. “The commissioning of new facilities will allow us to fully meet the economy’s electricity demand starting from early 2027, followed by a surplus. This additional generation will also support energy-intensive artificial intelligence infrastructure and large data centers,” he added. Under Kazakhstan’s Energy Sector Development Plan through 2035, the government also plans to introduce more than 26.3 GW of additional generating capacity. The ministry said the decision to build new facilities is based on long-term projections of rising electricity demand. Kazakhstan is also implementing a national project to expand coal-fired generation using what officials describe as cleaner coal technologies in line with environmental regulations. That program includes investment projects with a combined installed capacity of around 7.8 GW. Key projects include the construction of the Ekibastuz GRES-3 power plant, a thermal power station in Kurchatov, and three new combined heat and power plants in Kokshetau, Semey, and Ust-Kamenogorsk. In total, the national energy project includes 19 initiatives, eight new projects and 11 focused on the expansion and modernization of existing facilities. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan’s electricity deficit was projected to reach 5.7 billion kWh in January 2025, up from 2.4 billion kWh a year earlier. The country currently imports most of its shortfall from Russia and signed an agreement with Tajikistan in May 2025 to import electricity from the Rogun Hydropower Plant.

Wind power

Masdar Launches Construction of $1.4 Billion Wind Farm in Southern Kazakhstan

Construction has begun on one of Kazakhstan’s largest renewable energy projects, a 1-gigawatt wind power plant in the southern Zhambyl Region, as the country moves to address energy shortages and expand green generation capacity. The $1.4 billion project is being developed by a consortium of Kazakhstani companies and investors from the United Arab Emirates. The shareholders include Abu Dhabi-based clean energy company Masdar with a 40% stake, W Solar with 40%, Kazakhstan’s Qazaq Green Power, part of the Samruk-Kazyna fund, with 18%, and the Kazakhstan Investment Development Fund with 2%. The official groundbreaking ceremony took place on June 29 in a teleconference format, with the launch signal given from Astana by Kazakhstan’s Vice Minister of Energy Sungat Yessimkhanov, Samruk-Kazyna CEO Nurlan Zhakupov, and Masdar CEO Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi. Commercial operations are scheduled to begin in the third quarter of 2029. “Partnership with Masdar contributes to the development of renewable energy and Kazakhstan’s progress toward carbon neutrality,” Yessimkhanov said. “This project will strengthen regional energy security and bring advanced technologies into the renewable energy sector.” The project’s key technical feature is its integration of wind generation with battery energy storage. The facility will include an energy storage system with a capacity of 300 MW and storage volume of 600 MWh. Officials say the battery system will help address one of the main challenges of renewable energy by stabilizing electricity supply during fluctuating weather conditions and peak evening demand. The wind farm is expected to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 2.5 million tons annually, supporting Kazakhstan’s national climate targets. Masdar has been expanding its presence across Central Asia. In 2024, Uzbekistan signed an agreement with the UAE company to build Central Asia’s first solar power plant with battery storage in the Bukhara region. In 2022, Masdar also reached an agreement with Turkmenistan to build the country’s first utility-scale solar plant, with a planned capacity of 100 MW. The company faces growing competition from Chinese firms in the region. In May, China Energy International Group launched construction of a 500-MW wind farm in central Kazakhstan. Kazakhstan aims to generate 15% of its electricity from renewable sources by 2030 as part of its broader strategy to reduce dependence on coal and improve long-term energy security.

Sustainable Development

Kazakhstan and China to Establish Zero-Carbon Smart Agriculture Park in Atyrau

Kazakhstan’s Atyrau Oil and Gas University (AOGU) has signed a memorandum of understanding with China’s Shanghai Aiko Solar Energy Company Limited (AIKO) to cooperate in renewable energy, artificial intelligence, agriculture, and advanced technology transfer, as part of efforts to expand sustainable technologies in western Kazakhstan. The agreement includes plans to establish the AIKO-AOGU Zero-Carbon Smart Agriculture Demonstration Park at the university’s new campus in Atyrau, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The demonstration park is expected to serve as a scientific, educational, and technological platform for testing modern agricultural solutions tailored to the arid climate and limited water resources of the Atyrau region. According to the ministry, the facility will combine renewable energy systems, digital technologies, artificial intelligence, and innovative farming practices to improve efficiency and sustainability. The project will make extensive use of solar energy, AI-powered management systems, water-saving technologies, and automated agricultural solutions. It will also explore the development of aquaculture as an additional sustainable food production option. “The project aims to address several strategic objectives simultaneously,” Utebayev University Rector Gulzada Shakulikova said. “The first stage involves the creation of solar greenhouses and demonstration agricultural plots. Smart irrigation and fertigation systems, water reuse infrastructure, solar power plants and energy storage systems, and digital management and monitoring platforms will also be implemented.” She added that the partnership will also establish a joint AIKO-AOGU exhibition, education, and research center. The initiative is expected to create new opportunities for university researchers and students, allowing them to participate in international-level scientific projects and technology development. The agreement is part of the university’s efforts to develop green technologies and position Atyrau as a regional innovation hub in Central Asia for renewable energy and sustainable development. For Kazakhstan, the project also reflects broader efforts to diversify the economy and modernize agriculture through climate-resilient technologies amid growing concerns over water scarcity and environmental sustainability.

Renewable energy

Central Asia’s Renewable Energy Boom Faces Growing Grid Challenges

Central Asia is rapidly expanding its renewable energy sector, with solar power emerging as one of the key drivers of the region’s energy transition. However, a new report by the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) warns that accelerated deployment of renewable energy, without matching investment in grid infrastructure, reserve capacity, storage systems, and market reforms, could increase systemic risks and raise overall electricity costs. The warning comes as electricity demand across Central Asia continues to grow steadily. The region’s population now exceeds 80 million, and power consumption is rising by 3% to 6% annually. According to the EDB, electricity demand could increase by nearly 40% by 2030, reaching 370 billion kilowatt-hours annually, up from approximately 270 billion kilowatt-hours today. Governments across the region have announced ambitious renewable energy targets for the coming decade. Uzbekistan plans to install more than 25 gigawatts of renewable energy capacity by 2030, including solar and wind generation. Kazakhstan aims to commission 8.4 gigawatts of renewable energy by 2035, while Kyrgyzstan plans to add 3.65 gigawatts of solar capacity and 400 megawatts of wind power over the same period. Tajikistan is targeting 2 gigawatts of solar and wind generation by 2030, while Turkmenistan has announced plans for 300 megawatts of solar power capacity. Yet the region’s transition toward cleaner energy sources presents a growing challenge: electricity demand is increasing faster than power systems are adapting to accommodate large volumes of variable renewable generation. Solar energy production peaks during daylight hours, creating fluctuations that conventional power systems must manage. In the morning, before solar panels begin generating at full capacity, electricity demand is largely met by hydropower plants and thermal generation fueled by coal or natural gas. As solar output rises during the day, conventional plants must reduce generation or temporarily shut down. After sunset, when electricity consumption remains high but solar production falls to zero, conventional generators must rapidly increase output to stabilize the system. These abrupt shifts create operational challenges and increase costs for grid operators. According to the EDB’s report, Power Sector of Central Asia: Modernization and Energy Transition, the main obstacles to integrating renewable energy are technical and institutional, not simply financial. If sudden drops in solar or wind generation caused by weather changes are not immediately offset, power systems risk instability and, in extreme cases, blackouts. As renewable capacity expands, grids require more flexible generation, larger reserve margins, energy storage systems, and more sophisticated operational management tools. The report notes that renewable generation is being introduced faster than supporting infrastructure can be developed. In many countries, transmission networks were not designed to accommodate a high share of variable energy sources. Weather forecasting systems also remain insufficiently accurate to support reliable real-time balancing of renewable output. Market reforms have lagged as well. Capacity markets, reserve markets, and tariff systems in several Central Asian countries have yet to evolve in ways that encourage investment in flexible backup generation and storage technologies. As a result, the report argues, the real system-wide cost of renewable energy may...

Green Energy

Tajikistan Links Green Energy Push to Regional Power Exports

Tajikistan is positioning renewable energy and regional electricity trade as central to its long-term economic strategy, as Dushanbe seeks to build on its hydropower base while reducing exposure to climate- and seasonal-supply risks. The message was delivered by Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources Sharif Makhmadzoda during a ministerial dialogue on the renewable energy transition in Central Asia. The session, titled International Cooperation for a Sustainable and Diversified Energy Future, was held as part of the Baku Energy Forum. According to Makhmadzoda, the energy transition has become one of Tajikistan’s key long-term development priorities. He said the shift toward renewable energy is not only about meeting international climate commitments, but also about strengthening energy security, supporting industrial development, and improving living standards. Tajikistan continues to place hydropower at the center of its energy strategy. Makhmadzoda noted that approximately 95% of the country’s electricity is generated by hydroelectric power plants, making the republic one of the world’s leading producers of green energy. Makhmadzoda also stressed the need to diversify the country’s energy mix, citing climate change, glacier melt, seasonal changes in river flows, and rising domestic electricity demand. Against this backdrop, the government sees modernization of the energy sector and the expansion of other renewable energy sources as increasingly important. Particular attention is being paid to the development of solar and wind power generation. Regional cooperation was another key theme of Makhmadzoda’s remarks. According to the deputy minister, Tajikistan’s renewed participation in the Central Asian Unified Energy System could play an important role in creating a regional market for clean electricity. CASA-1000 is designed to carry up to 1,300 megawatts of surplus electricity from Central Asia to high-demand markets in South Asia, linking Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan with Afghanistan and Pakistan. The comments underline a wider challenge for Tajikistan. Hydropower gives the country one of the region’s cleanest power systems, but it also leaves the energy sector heavily exposed to water availability, climate pressures, and seasonal demand peaks.

Alatau City

Kazakhstan Plans to Power New Alatau City With Gas and Renewable Energy

Kazakhstan plans to power the future megacity of Alatau City near Almaty through a combination of gas-fired generation and renewable sources, as authorities seek to address chronic electricity shortages in the country’s south while creating a low-carbon “smart city” model. Deputy Prime Minister Kanat Bozumbayev outlined the government’s energy strategy for the project during a briefing in Astana. According to him, Alatau City’s population could reach between 2.8 million and 3 million people by 2050, roughly equivalent to the current population of Almaty. “We expect that Alatau City will rely primarily on gas generation, given the area’s relatively low population density, along with renewable energy facilities,” Bozumbayev said. The new city is being developed on the site of the village of Zhetygen, approximately 50 kilometers from Almaty. The project will also encompass the settlements of Enbek, Zhanaarna and Kuigan, as well as parts of Konaev and the Talgar district in the Almaty Region. Authorities envision Alatau City as a future hub for technology companies, logistics and export-oriented industry. Under the current concept, the city will be divided into four functional districts: the financial and business-oriented Gate District, the educational and medical Golden District, the industrial Growing District, and the entertainment-focused Green District. The government expects rapid growth in both population and industrial activity to drive a sharp increase in electricity consumption. According to official estimates, electricity demand in Alatau City could reach 1.45 gigawatts by 2030 and rise further to 1.7 gigawatts by 2040. For comparison, Almaty’s electricity consumption in 2024 stood at approximately 982 megawatts. During the initial phase over the next three years, the city is expected to require around 50-100 megawatts of electricity. However, once industrial facilities become operational, demand could rise to between 500 and 1,000 megawatts, Bozumbayev said. Authorities have already prepared an infrastructure plan that includes the construction of transmission lines, substations, and new generating facilities. The government’s emphasis on gas-fired power generation is aimed at reducing southern Kazakhstan’s dependence on electricity transfers from northern Kazakhstan and neighboring countries. According to Bozumbayev, the launch of new power plants in Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and other southern regions should eventually create an electricity surplus in southern Kazakhstan, which currently remains energy deficient. The development of Alatau City is also part of Kazakhstan’s effort to modernize its power system and gradually increase the share of renewable energy in the national mix. In recent years, the country has expanded solar and wind power projects while remaining heavily dependent on coal-fired generation. Alongside energy infrastructure, authorities are promoting Alatau City as a testing ground for advanced transportation technologies. Bozumbayev said preliminary estimates suggest that air taxi rides in the city could cost around $1 per kilometer. “As competition develops in the market, prices could decrease,” the deputy prime minister said. He added that the testing of the air taxi system is expected to be completed by 2026, with commercial services potentially launching in 2027. However, Almaty Region Governor Marat Sultangaziev previously stated that full commercial operation of air taxi services...