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druzhba pipeline

Kazakhstan Asks Russia to Reopen Druzhba Oil Route to Germany After Six-Month Halt

Kazakhstan has formally asked Russia to restore oil shipments to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline, six months after Moscow suspended the route. The request follows a drone attack on Russian infrastructure that briefly halted another Kazakh oil export route earlier this week. Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said on November 4 that he had personally delivered the request to Russian officials. Kazakhstan has the technical capacity to resume deliveries, he told reporters, and is awaiting Moscow’s response. “I personally delivered an official request in a face-to-face meeting,” Akkenzhenov said, but gave no timetable for a decision. The suspended route carried Kazakh crude through Russia, Belarus and Poland to the PCK refinery in Schwedt, northeastern Germany. Russia halted transit on May 1, citing technical restrictions, and the deliveries have remained suspended ever since. Kazakhstan shipped 2.1 million metric tons to Schwedt through Druzhba in 2025, and had planned to increase the figure to approximately 3 million tons this year. Before the suspension, it delivered 1.02 million tons between January and April, according to Interfax. A German Market, a Russian Transit Route Kazakh oil became an important replacement for Russian crude after Germany ended direct imports from Russia in 2023. The Schwedt refinery had previously depended on Russian supplies. Kazakh producers could reach it through the same Soviet-era pipeline network, and this arrangement grew quickly. In October 2025, the parties extended supplies through the end of 2026. Schwedt is central to fuel supplies around the German capital. The refinery says it supplies approximately 90% of the gasoline, diesel, jet fuel and heating oil used in Berlin and Brandenburg. Kazakh crude accounted for about 17% of its oil intake before the halt. The refinery has an unusual ownership arrangement. Russia’s Rosneft retains its majority stake through German subsidiaries, but the German government has controlled those interests since 2022. Berlin placed them under a new trusteeship in February 2026. In August, a Schwedt refinery spokesperson said crude imported through Poland’s Gdańsk port had fully replaced the missing Kazakh volumes. By October 28, the refinery was operating at more than 86% capacity, according to regional authorities. Its management said alternative supplies had kept operations stable despite the loss of Kazakh crude. The refinery also takes oil through Germany’s port of Rostock. Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak attributed the suspension to “technical capabilities” in April. He said the oil would move through other export routes. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry then allocated 260,000 tons of May shipments elsewhere, including 160,000 tons through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and 100,000 tons through Russia’s Baltic port of Ust-Luga. Both alternatives allowed exports to continue, but neither eliminated dependence on Russian transport infrastructure. [caption id="attachment_60096" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] The PCK oil refinery in Schwedt, Germany; image: Rauenstein[/caption] Another Disruption at Samara That vulnerability was apparent again this week, when drone attacks on facilities at Russia’s Samara oil transit hub forced the Atyrau–Samara pipeline to stop pumping on November 2. Kazakhstan resumed shipments the following day after technical checks. Atyrau–Samara connects Kazakhstan’s western...

Oil Exports

Kazakhstan Resumes Oil Exports Through Russian Pipeline After Drone Attack

Kazakhstan resumed oil shipments through the Atyrau-Samara pipeline on November 3, a day after a drone attack on a Russian transit hub forced pumping to stop. The disruption again exposed the vulnerability of Kazakh exports to attacks on infrastructure beyond the country’s borders. The attack targeted facilities at the Samara Production and Dispatch Centre in Russia. Oil transportation stopped at 6:09 a.m. Astana time on November 2. “As of November 3, 2026, oil transportation through the Atyrau-Samara trunk pipeline is operating normally,” Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry spokesperson Assel Serikpayeva said. Pumping resumed after a technical inspection. The ministry reported no injuries. Atyrau-Samara is Kazakhstan’s second-largest oil export route by volume, after the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC). It connects western Kazakhstan to Russia’s Transneft network for onward delivery to international markets. Kazakhstan exported approximately 9.2 million metric tons through the route in 2025. Shipments totaled 7.573 million metric tons in the first nine months of 2026, according to KazTransOil data. The Samara hub had already come under attack. Ukraine’s General Staff said its forces struck the pumping complex on October 2, Bloomberg reported. Kazakhstan can divert some shipments through Atyrau-Samara when CPC operations are disrupted, but both routes rely on Russian infrastructure, meaning switching between them leaves exporters exposed to similar risks. The latest stoppage follows repeated disruptions at CPC’s Black Sea terminal near Novorossiysk. In July, Kazakhstan condemned drone attacks on tankers near the terminal, including vessels loading Kazakh crude. The summer’s attacks brought fires aboard tankers and repeated evacuations. On July 19, drones struck ASIA and NISSOS IOS while they were loading Kazakh crude at CPC’s offshore moorings. ASIA was loading Tengizchevroil oil, while NISSOS IOS carried crude from Kashagan and Maten. A fire aboard ASIA was extinguished, and loading was temporarily suspended. Further attacks prolonged the disruption, eventually forcing Kazakhstan to cut production. Kazakhstan’s Foreign Ministry called the attacks an infringement on the country’s economic interests and demanded that they stop. It also reserved the right to pursue compensation. CPC alone carried about 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports in 2025, underscoring the country’s dependence on infrastructure within Russia. The interruptions soon affected production at home. An August 7 Reuters report put July CPC loadings more than 20% below schedule, citing sources familiar with the data. Kazakhstan’s oil production fell 14% from June, the sources said. On August 25, Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov cut the annual production plan from 98 million to 96 million metric tons, attributing losses to attacks in January and the summer. Planned maintenance at Tengiz and North Caspian Operating Company fields was postponed until 2027, helping limit the reduction in the annual target. A separate drone incident near the terminal briefly halted loading on September 8. Kazakhstan has been seeking to expand other routes, although their capacity remains far below the volumes moving through CPC. In an interview published on November 2, energy strategist Umud Shokri told The Times of Central Asia that alternatives would take time to develop. “I would describe the route as a...

Energy Security

Interview with Umud Shokri: Can Kazakhstan Reduce Its Dependence on Russian Oil Export Routes?

Kazakhstan sent more than four-fifths of its oil exports in 2025 through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which crosses Russia to the Black Sea. Repeated disruptions have exposed the risks of relying so heavily on a single route. While alternative shipments across the Caspian Sea are growing, volumes remain small. Falling water levels and higher transport costs complicate efforts to expand these alternative routes, while tensions around Iran pose risks to routes farther south. These challenges extend beyond Kazakhstan. The country is Central Asia’s largest oil producer, and its export decisions affect trade and energy infrastructure across the Caspian region, the South Caucasus and Europe. Meanwhile, plans to export renewable electricity across the Caspian could create new connections between Central Asia and European energy markets. To examine the region’s options, The Times of Central Asia spoke with Dr. Umud Shokri, a Washington-based energy strategist and Visiting Senior Fellow at George Mason University. He is the author of U.S. Energy Diplomacy in the Caspian Sea Basin (Springer, 2021) and is preparing two books: Hormuz and the Geopolitics of Eurasian Energy Infrastructure (Routledge) and Iran’s Energy Transition Under Constraint: War, Sanctions, and Systemic Vulnerability (Springer). TCA: How is Central Asia’s role in Eurasian energy security changing, and where does Kazakhstan fit into this shift? Umud Shokri: I think the biggest change is that Central Asian countries are looking beyond the routes they have relied on for decades. Oil and gas still move mainly through Russia and China, but governments are also exploring connections across the Caspian and south through Iran. They want more choices and greater control over how their resources reach markets. Kazakhstan is central to this shift. It is the region's largest oil producer, and its location gives it links to Russia, China, the Caspian and the South Caucasus. However, its heavy dependence on a single major oil export route remains a significant vulnerability. There is also a growing focus on electricity. Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are working on plans for a green-energy corridor across the Caspian. Commissioning of the Central Asia–Azerbaijan link is planned to begin in 2032, while the separate Caspian–Black Sea–Europe corridor is expected to reach full capacity by 2040. These are long-term goals; neither corridor is operating yet. Kazakhstan is therefore both a major energy supplier and a country seeking to broaden its options. Its relationships with Russia, China, Europe, Türkiye and its neighbors all matter. But diplomacy alone is not enough. The region needs investment in pipelines, ports, power lines and domestic grids to turn diversification plans into reliable alternatives. TCA: Kazakhstan relies heavily on the CPC pipeline. Can the route through Azerbaijan and Türkiye become a substantial alternative? Umud Shokri: The CPC is still Kazakhstan's main oil export route. It carried 64.8 million metric tons of Kazakh oil in 2025, or about four-fifths of the country's exports. That volume cannot be shifted elsewhere quickly. But repeated disruptions have shown why Kazakhstan needs alternatives. The route through Azerbaijan and Türkiye is already operating. Kazakh oil...

Energy Security

Central Asia Electricity Demand Expected to Rise 27% by 2030, EDB Says

Electricity demand across Central Asia is expected to increase by 27% by 2030, putting additional pressure on the region’s power grids, according to the Eurasian Development Bank. Arman Akhunbayev, head of the bank’s Center for Sectoral Analysis, announced the projection during an October 29 presentation of its report, Energy Without Borders: The Architecture of Power Connectivity in Central Asia. “To prevent energy shortages from becoming an obstacle to economic growth, generation capacity and power grids must be prepared now for new factories and expanding cities,” Akhunbayev said. The bank stressed that building additional power plants alone would not be enough. With countries in the region planning to add more than 35 gigawatts of new solar and wind capacity by 2035, it called for grid upgrades and investment in energy storage and backup generating capacity. The report noted that during peak demand on December 10, 2024, around 6.6 gigawatts of generating capacity in Central Asia’s interconnected power system was unavailable or restricted because of technical and resource constraints. In a separate report published in March, the bank had projected that electricity consumption could reach 370 billion kilowatt-hours annually by 2030, up nearly 40% from around 270 billion in 2024. The October presentation does not specify the baseline for its 27% forecast.

Energy Security

Bishkek Turns On the Heat as Soviet-Era System Faces Winter Test

For hundreds of thousands of Bishkek residents, winter heating begins with an order from city hall. On October 28, the authorities began supplying heat through the capital's district network after temperatures dropped sharply. The decision came as Kyrgyzstan recorded an autumn electricity consumption record, and lawmakers questioned the condition of the city's main heating plant. The system does not follow a fixed calendar. Under municipal rules, heating starts when the average outdoor temperature stays at 8°C or lower for five consecutive days. The heating season ends after five consecutive days above that threshold. In comments reported on October 26, Mayor Aibek Dzhunushaliev said the preceding five-day average was 6.5°C, and that the heating network would take three days to become fully operational. The seasonal switch controls building supply, not electricity generation. Residents can face several cold days before the heating comes on. In 2021, the season began on October 5. In 2024, it started on October 22, while the 2025 opening fell on November 3. An analysis of records since 2004 by Kaktus.media put the average season at around 150 days. The Legacy of a Centralized System Bishkek's heating network traces its origins to the Soviet period. The combined heat and power plant opened in 1961, when the capital was still known as Frunze. As the city grew, pipelines carried heat from the plant to new apartment buildings. The municipal heat-network company says roughly 400 smaller, inefficient boilers were phased out as centralized heating expanded. Now, the authorities are also upgrading neighborhood heating facilities to reduce reliance on the central system. On October 28, the mayor launched new gas boilers with a combined capacity of 45 megawatts. The equipment was installed in the 10th microdistrict and at the Rotor facility in Jal. The new gas boilers serve individual neighborhoods, while much of Bishkek still relies on the main combined heat and power plant. The immediate pressure is also falling on the electricity grid. On October 27, national consumption reached 64.318 million kilowatt-hours, according to the National Electric Grid of Kyrgyzstan. That was 34.4% above the figure from October 27, 2025, when consumption stood at 47.869 million kilowatt-hours. The operator called it an autumn record, close to December’s typical daily consumption of at least 66 million kilowatt-hours. The operator attributed the surge mainly to electric heaters and warned about increased pressure on transformers. City officials said bringing the heating on earlier would help reduce reliance on electric heaters in homes and public buildings. [caption id="attachment_59552" align="aligncenter" width="1774"] Residential buildings in Bishkek, where falling temperatures have increased demand for heating and electricity; image: TCA/Stephen M. Bland[/caption] The Aging Plant and Its History of Failures On October 27, parliamentarian Mahabat Mavlyanova warned that worn equipment at Bishkek's combined heat and power plant could interrupt heating. Deputy Mayor Nasipbek Kerimov acknowledged that machinery in its older section had been operating for about 65 years. Mavlyanova called for an independent technical assessment involving foreign specialists and proposed funding it in the city's 2027 budget. Plant...

State of the Nation

Tokayev Unveils $14 Billion Construction Plan in Kazakhstan State of the Nation Address

Kazakhstan plans to spend 6.5 trillion tenge (about $14.3 billion) from its National Fund on infrastructure projects by 2029 and eliminate its electricity shortage in the same period, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev announced in his annual State of the Nation Address on October 28. The president also outlined plans to accelerate nuclear power plant construction, expand transport routes between China and Europe, and establish a separate court for investors in the new city of Alatau. $14 Billion for Infrastructure Tokayev proposed declaring 2027 a year of large-scale construction and launching a nationwide program covering roads, airports, railway stations, and public facilities. The government is expected to allocate approximately 6.5 trillion tenge from the National Fund by the end of 2029, including 1.5 trillion tenge ($3.3 billion) for social projects in the remaining months of 2026 and the first two months of 2027. The program envisages building around 70 healthcare facilities and approximately 50 education, sports, and cultural facilities. Plans also include extending gas supplies and clean drinking water to underserved communities. Tokayev said public funding should help attract private investment rather than finance the entire program. The spending plans raise questions about the use of Kazakhstan's accumulated oil revenues. The National Fund was established in part to protect the economy from fluctuations in commodity prices, but its resources are regularly used to meet budgetary needs. Tokayev said Kazakhstan must balance preserving financial reserves for future generations with investing in modern infrastructure. He argued that public spending should deliver economic and social returns. Kazakhstan Aims to Eliminate Electricity Deficit Tokayev acknowledged that Kazakhstan's electricity production is insufficient to meet the needs of its growing economy, particularly as the country seeks to expand industry and build data centers. According to the national grid operator KEGOC, Kazakhstan generated 123.1 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity in 2025, while consuming 124.6 billion. The shortfall of approximately 1.5 billion kilowatt-hours was covered by net imports. The president set a target of achieving a sustained surplus of electricity production over domestic consumption by 2029. Tokayev criticized the longstanding practice of purchasing expensive electricity from neighboring countries during winter peaks in demand and subsequently returning electricity in summer at substantially lower prices. "That's quite a simple little 'business,' and it's been going on for decades," Tokayev remarked. He also pointed to delays in bringing new generating capacity online in Turkestan, Kyzylorda, Almaty, and Ekibastuz, as well as a shortage of qualified energy specialists. To meet the 2029 target, Kazakhstan will need to build new power stations and modernize existing facilities. Tokayev called for further development of coal-fired generation alongside renewable energy, particularly solar power. Nuclear Power Plans Tokayev said construction of the Balkhash nuclear power plant could begin in 2027. He also proposed accelerating preparations for an agreement on the Moyynkum nuclear power plant. Russia's state nuclear corporation Rosatom is leading the Balkhash project, while China National Nuclear Corporation has been selected as the main contractor for the second plant. However, the first reactor at Balkhash is not expected to...