Energy Security - The Times Of Central Asia

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fuel shortages

Russia’s Fuel Crisis Tests Kazakhstan’s Energy Resilience

Kazakhstan is being pulled into a new energy paradox. As Russia's fuel crisis deepens, the country is being discussed as a potential gasoline supplier to its largest neighbor. Meanwhile, Kazakhstan is tightening controls at home, building reserves around refinery maintenance, and weighing fuel imports from China to protect its own market. On June 24, Reuters reported that Russia was in talks with Kazakhstan to import about 50,000 metric tons of AI-92 gasoline, citing four industry sources. The discussions followed refinery outages and unscheduled repairs in Russia after Ukrainian drone attacks, which had led to shutdowns at several large refineries in central Russia and cut Russian gasoline output by roughly 25% year-on-year by late June. The news was striking because Russia is normally a major exporter of petroleum products. The need to consider gasoline imports, including seaborne imports and emergency market-stabilization measures, underlines the scale of disruption in Russia's refining system. Kazakhstan's Energy Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov said Astana had not received an official request from Moscow, but the question remains politically and economically sensitive for Kazakhstan: can it afford to send fuel abroad if its own margin of safety is narrowing? Officially, the domestic picture remains stable. Kazakhstan's government said on June 20 that national stocks of gasoline, diesel, and aviation fuel exceeded 1 million tons, enough to cover current demand. It said supplies were being prioritized for filling stations, agricultural producers, and domestic airlines, and that no shortage of fuels and lubricants had been observed. Yet those assurances sit alongside a more fragile structural reality. Kazakhstan's refining system depends heavily on three large refineries: Atyrau in the west, Pavlodar in the north, and Shymkent in the south. Last year, it was reported that, after modernization, the three plants had a combined annual output of about 17 million metric tons. Such a system can function efficiently when all units are operating normally, but it leaves limited room for simultaneous shocks. One of those shocks is already present. The Atyrau Oil Refinery began scheduled preventive maintenance on June 26 under a timetable approved by the Ministry of Energy. KazMunayGas said the work includes inspections of 20 reactors, 213 storage tanks, 32 columns, and 231 heat exchangers, as well as replacement of more than 335 tons of catalysts. The refinery entered maintenance with 38,000 tons of gasoline, 31,300 tons of diesel, and 6,800 tons of jet fuel. KazMunayGas said national stocks of AI-92 gasoline and diesel covered 34 and 32 days of demand, respectively, and that the phased restart of processing units was scheduled to begin on July 10. Those figures show resilience, but not abundance. Summer brings higher consumption from agriculture, passenger travel, freight, and aviation. For the government, managing this period means monitoring refinery output, shipments, inventories, and preventing fuel from leaving the country through unauthorized channels. After a June 20 meeting, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov ordered tighter border controls; the government said vehicles are restricted from crossing the state border by road more than once per day as part of...

Kazarman Hydropower Cascade

Turkish Company Launches Construction of $3 Billion Hydropower Cascade in Kyrgyzstan

Construction of the Kazarman cascade of hydroelectric power plants on Kyrgyzstan’s Naryn River officially began on June 25, marking one of the country’s largest energy infrastructure projects since independence. The project, located in the Jalal-Abad region, includes three hydropower plants, Ala-Buga, Kara-Bulun-1, and Kara-Bulun-2, with a combined installed capacity of 912 megawatts and expected annual electricity generation of more than 3.75 billion kilowatt-hours. The cascade is being developed under an investment agreement with Orta Asya Investment Holding, a subsidiary of Turkey’s İhlas Holding, with total investments estimated at $3 billion. At the official launch ceremony, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov described the Kazarman cascade as one of the largest energy projects in the country’s modern history. Japarov said Kyrgyzstan is accelerating hydropower and renewable energy development to strengthen energy security and reduce dependence on electricity imports. “Without developing the electric power industry, it is impossible to ensure the country’s sustainable development,” Japarov said. He noted that Kyrgyzstan imported about 3 billion kWh of electricity during winter in 2020, a figure that has now risen to 4 billion kWh, reflecting growing domestic demand. According to Japarov, electricity consumption continues to outpace new generation capacity despite ongoing construction of small and medium-sized hydropower plants, as well as solar and wind energy facilities. The president said the increase in demand is driven by rapid industrial expansion, with hundreds of new factories and social infrastructure facilities commissioned annually in recent years. Construction of the Kazarman cascade is scheduled for completion by 2031. Japarov said that once the Kazarman cascade and the strategic Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant become operational, Kyrgyzstan expects to fully cover domestic electricity demand and begin exporting surplus energy to neighboring countries. Kambarata-1, which is being developed jointly with Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, will have an installed capacity of 1,860 MW and annual generation of 5.6 billion kWh. In addition to the Kazarman project, İhlas Holding is also involved in building a 250 MW gas-fired combined heat and power plant in Bishkek. The company is further expanding its energy footprint in Kyrgyzstan through the Suusamyr-Kokomeren hydropower cascade, for which the Eurasian Development Bank and Orta Asya Investment Holding signed a feasibility study agreement in September 2025. That project will include three hydropower plants with a combined capacity of 1,305 MW. Under the agreements, Orta Asya Investment Holding will operate the facilities for 20 years, while Kyrgyzstan guarantees the purchase of the generated electricity.

Middle East Crisis

The Fragile U.S.–Iran Truce: What Central Asia Stands to Gain and Lose

The preliminary memorandum signed in mid-June between the United States and Iran, followed by renewed talks between Washington and Tehran, has extended a U.S.–Iran truce and opened a 60-day window for negotiations on a final agreement. The nuclear terms remain unresolved, while Israel’s continued military presence in southern Lebanon, despite U.S. pressure for a withdrawal, underscores how fragile the broader regional de-escalation remains. At the end of this period, the parties may sign a final agreement, return to hostilities, or mutually agree to extend the interim arrangement. Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan, along with neighboring Azerbaijan, have welcomed efforts to de-escalate the conflict between the United States and Iran. The fighting briefly boosted demand for alternative routes through Central Asia, but prolonged instability would disrupt trade, raise transport and insurance costs, and increase security risks. The question now is what the region could gain if the pause holds. Those effects would vary across the region. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan stand to benefit most directly from safer southern rail access through Iran to the Persian Gulf and Türkiye. Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, which are less directly connected to these corridors and less exposed to oil price swings, would feel the consequences mainly through freight costs, fuel prices, and wider regional trade. For Azerbaijan, a sustained pause would reinforce its role as the Caspian link between Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and Türkiye, while renewed instability would push more freight toward Trans-Caspian alternatives. That interest is not merely theoretical. Tajik-Iranian trade reached $119.6 million in the first quarter of 2026, while Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are developing access to Iranian maritime infrastructure through Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The opportunity, however, is conditional. A truce can reduce military risk, but it does not by itself remove the banking, insurance, and compliance problems that have long complicated trade through Iran. For Central Asian exporters and logistics companies, the question is not only whether routes are physically open, but whether carriers, lenders, insurers, and buyers are prepared to use them during a temporary 60-day window. Analysts interviewed by Deutsche Welle said the framework leaves several important provisions unresolved, making a final agreement uncertain. For Central Asia, the most immediate economic variable is the Strait of Hormuz. Kazakh historian and political analyst Sultan Akimbekov identifies its reopening as the key to easing global supply fears. A durable reopening, combined with the temporary U.S. waiver allowing Iranian oil sales through August 21, could put downward pressure on global energy prices. The effects would vary across Central Asia: weaker prices could strain hydrocarbon revenues, while lower fuel, fertilizer, and freight costs could ease imported inflation in Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. For Kazakhstan, lower global oil prices would have significant implications. National Bank Governor Timur Suleimenov has said oil generates more than 50% of the country’s export revenues and over 30% of the state budget and National Fund revenues. That would reverse one of the conflict’s few short-term economic benefits for Kazakhstan. Higher crude prices had briefly improved the outlook for export revenues,...

Nuclear power

Central Asia’s Nuclear Push: Uzbekistan Starts Construction as Kazakhstan Plans at Least Three Plants

Uzbekistan has poured concrete for its first nuclear power plant, while Kazakhstan has signed a $16.5 billion agreement for a two-reactor facility near Lake Balkhash and approved a site for a second plant. Kazakhstan's long-term strategy calls for at least three nuclear power plants by 2050, with a fourth possible. Both governments are presenting nuclear power as a way to meet rapidly growing electricity demand and strengthen energy security. Yet the projects are advancing at different speeds and are reviving questions over water use, cross-border safety, financing, and long-term reliance on Russian technology and credit. Uzbekistan Moves Into Construction On June 4, 2026, Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Russian President Vladimir Putin launched construction by video link. Rafael Mariano Grossi, director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency, also took part. The first nuclear-grade concrete was poured overnight from June 4 to June 5 for the foundation slab of the first RITM-200N small modular reactor unit in the Forish district of the Jizzakh region. Uzatom subsequently classified the site as a nuclear power plant under construction. The facility is one plant with four planned reactor units: two large VVER-1000 units and two smaller RITM-200N units, each rated at 55 MW. Together, they would provide more than 2.1 GW of installed capacity. The present configuration is the latest version of a project that began with a 2017 peaceful-use agreement and a 2018 plan for two large reactors. In 2024, the focus shifted to six small reactors, before the design changed again in 2025 to the mixed large-and-small format now under construction. Uzbek and Russian projections put annual generation at about 17 billion kWh, or roughly 15% of future national demand. The current schedule envisages the first small unit reaching criticality in late 2029, with the large reactors expected to be commissioned in 2033 and 2035, although Uzatom has said final dates depend on outstanding contract arrangements. The project's stated base price is $9.5 billion, and Tashkent is seeking loans for most of the cost. Those financing terms, along with the final allocation of construction and operating risk, remain central to the project's viability. Water and Cross-Border Concerns The plant will stand near Lake Tuzkon in the Aydar-Arnasay lake system, about 40 kilometers from Kazakhstan's border. That proximity has made what is formally an Uzbek project a regional issue. Residents and environmental advocates in southern Kazakhstan have raised concerns about accident preparedness, radioactive waste, and possible pressure on already stressed water systems. Aiman Tleulesova, national coordinator of the Central Asian Regional Water Network, has argued that reactor cooling could require greater discharges into Lake Tuzkon and additional withdrawals linked to the Syr Darya system. In her assessment, that could intensify competition for irrigation water in Kazakhstan's Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions. These are concerns raised by specialists and campaigners, rather than established measurements of the completed plant's impact, but they require a quantified response because water scarcity is already a recurring regional problem. Uzbekistan held public hearings on the environmental impact assessment in...

EU-Kazakhstan Cooperation

Tokayev Heads to Brussels as Kazakhstan and EU Seek Progress on Trade, Minerals and Transport

President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev arrived in Brussels on June 22 seeking to advance cooperation with the European Union on critical minerals, transport connectivity, investment, and visa facilitation, as Kazakhstan and the EU move from framework agreements toward implementation. Tokayev’s official visit brings him together with the European Union's two senior institutional leaders and Belgium's prime minister. Tokayev is scheduled to meet European Council President António Costa at 7 p.m. on Monday. A joint meeting with Costa and European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen is set for Tuesday. His program also includes Belgian Prime Minister Bart De Wever and a Kazakhstan-EU roundtable with senior European business executives. The announced agenda covers the enhanced partnership, bilateral ties and international issues. The business roundtable will focus on investment, trade and joint projects. Ahead of the meetings, Tokayev set out three priorities for the next phase of relations: “strengthening resilience, expanding connectivity of all kinds, and creating new opportunities for citizens.” He linked them to energy and food security, critical raw materials, the Middle Corridor, artificial intelligence, easier travel, education and research. The visit follows a year of closer ties. The EU and the five Central Asian states raised their relationship to a strategic partnership at the Samarkand summit in April 2025. Costa then visited Astana in December. Those meetings placed critical minerals, transport, energy, digital links and easier travel at the center of cooperation. A Partnership Built on the EPCA The Enhanced Partnership and Cooperation Agreement gives the relationship its legal basis. Kazakhstan and the EU signed it in 2015, and it entered into force on March 1, 2020, making Kazakhstan the first Central Asian country to conclude such an agreement with the EU. The EPCA covers 29 policy areas, including trade, investment, energy, transport, climate, research, justice, and human rights. The broad range allows both sides to pursue commercial and political work through one framework. The agreement reached its tenth anniversary in December 2025. Before his Astana visit, Costa set a clear goal for the coming years. “The next decade must be defined by implementation: stronger value chains, modernised infrastructure, deeper technological cooperation, and tangible joint projects,” Costa said. Large Volumes, Limited Diversification The EU remained Kazakhstan's main trade and investment partner in 2025. Two-way goods trade totaled €41.4 billion, down 10.7% from 2024. EU imports from Kazakhstan reached €30.8 billion, while EU exports were €10.6 billion. The mix is less balanced. Fuel and mining products accounted for 92% of Kazakh exports to the EU. Machinery, transport equipment and chemicals led European sales to Kazakhstan. That gives the Brussels business roundtable a clear economic focus. Kazakhstan wants more European capital in processing, manufacturing, infrastructure and technology, while European companies want reliable access to energy and raw materials, along with clear investment rules. “We see great opportunities to venture in energy efficiency, critical minerals, digital technologies, and transport connectivity,” Tokayev said after meeting Costa in Astana in December. Critical Minerals Move Closer to Investment The EU and Kazakhstan signed a strategic partnership on...

Mining

S&P Global Energy Executive Says Kazakhstan Can Move Toward Mining’s Top Tier

Wesley Monteiro, Global Market Engagement Lead at S&P Global Energy/Platts, said Kazakhstan has one of the strongest chances among mining jurisdictions to move from tier-two toward tier-one, speaking to The Times of Central Asia on June 12 on the sidelines of the Astana Mining & Metallurgy Congress in Astana. “This is the country with a big chance to move from tier-two to tier-one,” Monteiro said. He developed that argument around five factors: mineral breadth, scalable copper production, uranium, legacy mining waste, and Kazakhstan’s diplomatic architecture. “Actually, this is the only country in the world that has this combination,” he said. Monteiro used Canada and Australia as reference points for established first-tier mining countries. Kazakhstan is not yet in that category, he said, but the combination he described gives the country a credible path toward it. Monteiro was speaking from the S&P Global Energy/Platts side of the company, which provides market information, price benchmarks, supply-demand analysis, and commodity-sector intelligence, rather than from S&P Global Ratings. Kazakhstan, in his view, is being reassessed as part of a new global commodity framework shaped by energy security and flexibility, and materials security and flexibility. In that environment, Kazakhstan’s position could help reduce investor risk perception and support new or increased investment in the region. “We can see in the short to medium term a reduction in the risk perception that can trigger new investments or can increase the investments in the region,” Monteiro said. He then expanded on each of the five factors. Mineral Breadth The first pillar was mineral breadth. Monteiro pointed to copper, aluminum, zinc, uranium, and other minerals. He described this range as “mineral breadth” or “mineral range,” distinguishing Kazakhstan from mining jurisdictions built around a single resource. For Monteiro, that range was the starting point for the tier-one argument. Scalable Copper Production Within that mineral breadth, Monteiro singled out copper as the second pillar. Copper is central to the infrastructure behind electrification, power grids, data centers, and AI computing, and Monteiro said the demand is not distant or theoretical. “Now everyone needs copper, not 15 years from now — yesterday, actually,” he said. For Monteiro, Kazakhstan’s copper position is therefore not only about reserves. He distinguished between having the resource, having the capacity to produce it, and being able to develop it quickly. “One thing is to have,” he said. “Another thing is the capacity to have the production. The third thing is how fast you can develop this.” Uranium Uranium was the third pillar in Monteiro’s account of Kazakhstan’s mining position. He framed it through the renewed global debate over nuclear power, saying the sector has returned to strategic relevance after years in which some governments moved away from it following the Fukushima accident in 2011. Germany, he said, became the clearest example of that retreat, while France maintained a large nuclear base and, in his view, emerged in a stronger position. “Nuclear is back in the game,” Monteiro said. He said the renewed interest in nuclear power is...