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Aging Population

By 2050, Nearly One-Fifth of Kazakhstan’s Population Will Be Over 60

Kazakhstan is on the cusp of a significant demographic transition. A recent report by the Unified Accumulative Pension Fund (UAPF), the agency overseeing the country’s pension system, projects that by 2050, 19% of Kazakhstan’s population will be of retirement or pre-retirement age. The study, published on the UAPF website, reveals that as of January 1, 2025, Kazakhstan's population had surpassed 20.3 million. Of this total, 42.8% — approximately 8.7 million people — were under the age of 25. Another 48% (around 9.7 million) were between 25 and 65, while 9.2%, or about 1.9 million people, were over 65 and currently classified as pensioners. Overall, individuals aged 60 and older now make up 13.9% of the total population. According to UAPF forecasts, the national population is expected to grow to 26.3 million by the end of 2050. However, this growth will be accompanied by an aging trend. “This means that by 2050, on average, one in five Kazakhs will be aged 60 or older,” the report notes. This shift mirrors a broader global pattern of aging populations and declining birth rates. Life expectancy in Kazakhstan, which had declined during the COVID-19 pandemic, has rebounded significantly. It rose from 70.23 years in 2021 to 75.44 years in 2024. At the same time, the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) has decreased from 3.32 children per woman in 2021 to 2.80 in 2024, with projections indicating a further drop to 2.42 by 2050. “With the gradual decline in birth rates and increased life expectancy, fewer people are entering the labor market, and the imbalance between pensioners and the working-age population continues to grow,” UAPF analysts stated. The report also predicts a neutral migration balance by 2050, meaning the number of people emigrating will roughly equal those immigrating for permanent residence. This marks a shift from earlier decades of net inward migration. Since 1991, over 1.15 million ethnic Kazakhs born abroad have moved to Kazakhstan permanently, according to data previously reported by The Times of Central Asia. As Kazakhstan confronts these demographic realities, policymakers will need to consider long-term strategies to ensure the sustainability of its pension system and the vitality of its labor force.

Health

Maternal Mortality Continues to Decline in Kazakhstan

Kazakhstan has ranked among the top 10 countries globally in terms of reducing maternal mortality rates, according to the World Health Organization. Over the past decade, Kazakhstan's maternal mortality rate has dropped significantly, reaching 10.1 deaths per 100,000 live births in 2024. This progress comes despite a temporary spike in maternal deaths during the COVID-19 pandemic. Three regions -- Pavlodar (northeast), Mangistau (west), and North Kazakhstan -- reported zero maternal deaths in 2024. Additionally, 99.9% of births across the country were attended by qualified medical personnel, reflecting widespread access to professional maternal healthcare. Steady Progress with Regional Disparities The Ministry of Health reported the following annual maternal mortality figures: 2020: 200 cases 2021: 70 cases 2022: 45 cases 2024: 37 cases Despite the national downward trend, 10 regions have seen a slight rise in maternal deaths over the past six years. In 2024, 54% of maternal deaths occurred in urban areas, with 46% in rural settings. A troubling development is the rise in mortality among women with four or more children, which left 97 children orphaned last year. Nonetheless, the current maternal mortality rate is the lowest recorded in Kazakhstan's post-Soviet history. In 1992, the rate stood at 76.8 deaths per 100,000 live births. Regional Leadership in Maternal Health As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is actively sharing its expertise in maternal and child health with neighboring countries, contributing to broader regional health development efforts.

Labor Market

Kazakhstan’s Young Workforce Grows, But Sectoral Gaps Persist

The youth labor market in Kazakhstan remains a vital topic amid the country’s ongoing economic transformation. According to analysts from Finprom.kz, approximately 1.8 million young people aged 15 to 28 were employed across the country in 2024, an increase of 0.6% compared to the previous year. Regional Distribution of Youth Employment The highest concentration of young workers is in Almaty, where 243,200 young people are employed, up 5% from 2023. Almaty is followed by the Turkestan region. In contrast, the Ulytau, North Kazakhstan, and Zhetysu regions recorded the lowest figures for youth employment. Of the total number of employed youth, 1.4 million (77.7%) work as salaried employees. Additionally, the country is home to 331,900 young individual entrepreneurs, 58,300 self-employed workers, 2,700 founders or participants in economic partnerships, joint-stock companies, or cooperatives, and 2,400 engaged in private practice. Sectoral Breakdown Among all employed young people, the largest group, 424,400 individuals, are professionals, although this marks a 1.3% decrease from the previous year. They are followed by service and sales workers (291,700), unskilled laborers (281,700), technical and support staff (195,100), and industrial, construction, and transport workers (142,600). In terms of industry sectors, youth are primarily employed in wholesale and retail trade, automotive repair, education, and agriculture, including forestry and fishing. The lowest youth employment is seen in utilities (water and electricity supply) and real estate. Youth Unemployment: A Gradual Decline Youth unemployment is on the decline. In 2024, the number of unemployed individuals aged 15 to 28 dropped to 62,000, a 6.7% decrease from 2023. The unemployment rate stood at 3.7% among 16 to 24-year-olds and 3% among those aged 25 to 28. For comparison, the overall unemployment rate for the working-age population in Kazakhstan reached 4.7%. Almaty recorded the highest number of unemployed youth (11,100), followed by Astana (7,800) and the Almaty region (7,700). Ulytau, Pavlodar, and North Kazakhstan regions reported the lowest youth unemployment figures. As for the length of time spent job hunting in 2024, 18,200 young people searched for one to three months, 16,200 for three to six months, and 16,000 for less than a month. A smaller share, 7,500, searched for more than six months, and 4,000 had been looking for work for over a year. Broader Context and Causes of Unemployment Nationwide, 448,200 Kazakhstani citizens were unemployed in the fourth quarter of 2024. The unemployment rate was 4.2% among men (211,100) and 5.1% among women (237,100). The most affected age groups were 35 to 54 (256,900 people) and 55 to 64 (69,700). The most frequently cited reasons for unemployment included family responsibilities (61,400), layoffs or company closures (50,300), and difficulty finding suitable jobs (112,500). Other contributing factors were domestic duties (44,200), health issues (17,500), and challenges securing employment post-graduation (16,600). Policy Implications Experts highlight the importance of developing flexible employment policies tailored to the evolving labor market. Enhancing conditions for self-employment and youth entrepreneurship is seen as a potential key strategy for reducing youth unemployment in the long term.

Migration

Russia Remains Top Destination for 600,000 Kyrgyz Migrant Workers

A total of 600,000 Kyrgyz citizens are currently living abroad, with Russia remaining the primary destination for Kyrgyz labor migrants, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Minister of Labor, Social Security, and Migration, Bakyt Darmankul uulu, said at a press conference last week, citing data from the Russian Ministry of Internal Affairs. As of the end of 2024, 379,949 Kyrgyz nationals were registered with Russian migration authorities. According to the Kyrgyz Ministry of Labor, the distribution of Kyrgyz migrants in other countries is as follows: Kazakhstan - approximately 70,000 Turkey - around 32,000 United States - about 40,000 South Korea - more than 17,000 Germany - about 15,000 United Arab Emirates (UAE) - more than 10,000 The Role of Remittances in Kyrgyzstan’s Economy Labor migration remains a vital source of income for many Kyrgyz households, with remittances playing a crucial role in the country’s economic development. According to a recent World Bank report analyzing migration trends in Europe and Central Asia, remittances from labor migrants accounted for 24% of Kyrgyzstan’s GDP in 2024. The report also highlights that the poverty rate among Kyrgyz households with an international migrant is currently below 10% but would exceed 50% without remittances. Shifting Migration Trends In recent years, many Kyrgyz and other Central Asian migrants have left Russia, due to the country’s economic downturn, stricter regulations, and rising anti-immigrant sentiment. As a result, an increasing number of migrants from Central Asia are opting for alternative destinations such as Turkey, South Korea, and various European countries.

Economy

Kazakhstan Leads Central Asia in Average Salaries

Kazakhstan continues to hold the top position in terms of average wages among Central Asian countries, according to a study conducted by analysts at Ranking.kz. Wage Comparisons Across Central Asia Data from the Interstate Statistical Committee of the CIS reveals that as of September 2024, Kazakhstan's average nominal monthly salary stood at $817.20. This figure is nearly twice as high as in Uzbekistan ($437.80) and Kyrgyzstan ($411.20). Tajikistan trails significantly behind, with an average salary of just $242.80 - 3.4 times lower than Kazakhstan’s. Notably, the wage gap between Kazakhstan and Tajikistan would have been even greater if not for a significant increase in Tajik wages. Over the past year, nominal salaries in Tajikistan rose by 24.9%, while real wages increased by 21.1% - the highest growth rate in the region. In comparison, wage growth in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan was more moderate. Data on salaries in Turkmenistan remains unavailable as the country has not updated its wage statistics since 2023. Minimum Wage Comparison Kazakhstan also leads the region in terms of minimum wages. In 2024, the minimum wage in Kazakhstan is 85,000 KZT ($181.10). By contrast: In Uzbekistan, the minimum wage is $89.40. In Tajikistan, it is $54.90. In Kyrgyzstan, it is just $28.30. In Turkmenistan, the official minimum wage is reported as $402.90, based on the fixed exchange rate of 3.5 TMT per dollar. However, due to the country’s reliance on a "black market" exchange rate (approximately 19 TMT per dollar), the actual minimum wage is estimated to be much lower, around $74.20. Sectoral Analysis When analyzing nominal salaries by economic sector, the highest wages in the region are found in finance and insurance. In Kazakhstan, the average salary in this sector exceeds $1,700 - three times higher than in Tajikistan ($561.90). Workers in Kazakhstan's mining industry also enjoy high incomes. In Uzbekistan and Kyrgyzstan, the financial sector and IT industry offer the highest salaries. Meanwhile, in Tajikistan, relatively high wages are reported in the manufacturing and service sectors. Inflation and Its Impact Inflation remains a key factor affecting the real purchasing power of wages across Central Asia. According to the CIS Interstate Statistical Committee, the most significant price increases in 2024 occurred in the economically developed countries of the region - Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Uzbekistan: Inflation reached 7.7% in October 2024. Kazakhstan: Inflation stood at 6.6%. Kyrgyzstan: Inflation was lower at 4.2%. Tajikistan: The region’s lowest inflation rate was recorded at 3.2%. These inflation rates directly influence the population's purchasing power, even in countries with higher nominal salaries like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Kazakhstan’s leadership in wages and minimum income underscores its position as the most economically advanced country in Central Asia. However, inflation and significant disparities in income distribution between sectors and regions remain challenges. While countries like Tajikistan are showing progress in wage growth, the overall gap in earnings between Central Asian nations continues to highlight economic inequalities within the region.

Foreign trade turnover

Uzbekistan’s Foreign Trade Turnover Grows by 3.8% in 2024

Uzbekistan’s foreign trade turnover (FTT) reached $65.9 billion in 2024, reflecting an increase of $2.4 billion, or 3.8%, compared to the previous year, according to the Statistics Agency under the President of the Republic of Uzbekistan. Exports totaled $26.95 billion, an 8.4% increase year-on-year, while imports amounted to $38.99 billion, representing a modest rise of 0.8%. China and Russia remain Uzbekistan’s top trading partners, with Kazakhstan emerging as a key partner in third place. Uzbekistan conducts trade with 198 countries, with China accounting for 18.9% of its FTT, followed by Russia (17.6%), Kazakhstan (6.5%), Turkey (4.5%), and South Korea (3.0%). Trade with state members of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) reached $17.5 billion in 2024. Of this, $5.83 billion came from exports, while imports amounted to $11.66 billion. In 2024, natural gas trade played a significant role in Uzbekistan’s foreign trade activities. The country exported $628 million worth of gas but imported $1.68 billion worth, more than 2.5 times the value of its exports. Gas imports rose sharply, increasing 2.4 times compared to 2023. Purchases of natural gas from Turkmenistan and Russia surged from $694.9 million in 2023 to $1.68 billion in 2024.