Central Asia Faces Billions in Climate Adaptation Costs, UNEP Warns

Central Asia ranks among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world and will require tens of billions of dollars to adapt to the accelerating effects of global warming, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report identifies Central Asia as one of the fastest-warming areas globally. However, current adaptation funding remains drastically insufficient to meet the growing threat. A Region Under Threat Developing countries worldwide, including those in Central Asia, will need up to $310 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change. UNEP highlights the region’s specific challenges: rapidly melting glaciers, widespread soil degradation, worsening water scarcity, and increasing aridity, all of which endanger food security and energy sustainability. “If we don't start investing in adaptation now, we will face increasing costs every year,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are particularly exposed, with more than 70% of their populations employed in agriculture, which depends heavily on mountain rivers fed by glacial runoff. According to UNEP, glacier volumes in the region have shrunk by over 30% in the past decade. The changing flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers threatens not only agriculture but also the hydropower sectors in both countries. Diminished access to water could lead to socio-economic instability in vulnerable communities. Funding Gap Widens UNEP estimates that developing countries in Europe and Central Asia need roughly $51 billion annually for adaptation. Yet, only a fraction of that figure is currently being met. Tajikistan, for example, has outlined total climate financing needs of $8 billion by 2030 and $17 billion by 2050. In Uzbekistan, the cost of modernizing irrigation and water management systems alone is expected to approach $10 billion by 2030. UNEP has urged governments in the region to accelerate the updating of national adaptation plans, many of which have not been revised in over a decade, and to enhance cooperation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Priority areas include investment in irrigation infrastructure, early warning systems, and flood control. From Glaciers to Farms In response to UNEP’s findings, international organizations have begun to fund targeted adaptation initiatives. The Green Climate Fund, for instance, has approved $250 million for the From Glaciers to Farms program, spearheaded by the Asian Development Bank. The project aims to strengthen agricultural and water resilience in glacier-dependent countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and parts of South Asia. It covers four major river basins: the Naryn and Panj in Central Asia, the Kura in the South Caucasus, and the Swat in Pakistan, benefiting approximately 13 million people. Funding will support the development of irrigation networks, reservoir construction, glacier monitoring, and early warning systems. The program also places a strong emphasis on empowering women entrepreneurs in agriculture and improving the financial sustainability of rural communities.

New UNEP Atlas Highlights Kyrgyzstan’s Climate Vulnerability

Amid intensifying climate impacts, the UN Environment Programme (UNEP) released its Atlas of Environmental Change for Kyrgyzstan on March 26, offering a comprehensive assessment of the country's growing environmental risks and response strategies. Warming at Twice the Global Rate According to the Atlas, average annual temperatures in Kyrgyzstan have increased by 1.2°C between 1960 and 2023, double the global average of 0.6°C. This accelerated warming has exacerbated water scarcity and the likelihood of natural disasters, a trend expected to intensify in the coming decades. While water availability declines, demand continues to rise, particularly in agriculture. The report stresses the urgent need for robust climate adaptation measures, including reducing irrigation losses, upgrading early warning systems, and improving pasture management. Currently, an estimated 70% of Kyrgyzstan’s pastures are degraded. Declining Water Resources Hydropower accounts for up to 93% of Kyrgyzstan’s electricity generation. But as the climate shifts, rainfall patterns, snow cover, and glaciers are changing, threatening the water inflows that power these systems. Water flow into the Toktogul Reservoir, which feeds the country’s largest hydroelectric plant, could decrease by as much as 18.8% by 2050. This poses a serious threat not only to energy security but also to regional cooperation, as Kyrgyzstan lies upstream of many major Central Asian rivers. The report underscores the importance of transboundary water management. Disasters on the Rise Natural disasters are also becoming more frequent and severe. On average, Kyrgyzstan experiences around 200 emergencies per year, 90% of which are linked to natural hazards such as floods, earthquakes, mudslides, rockfalls, and avalanches. In 2022 alone, nearly 150 lives were lost to natural disasters. Between 2012 and 2018, the average annual economic loss from such events reached $27 million. Conservation Achievements Despite the mounting risks, the Atlas also highlights Kyrgyzstan’s environmental progress. Forest cover has increased from 6.2% in 2000 to 6.9% in 2023, a significant feat given the country's mountainous terrain. Protected areas have expanded from 0.5 million hectares in 2000 to 1.5 million hectares, with plans to increase this to 10% of national territory by 2040, safeguarding up to 65% of species listed on the IUCN Red List. All forests in Kyrgyzstan are protected from commercial logging. Notably, the creation of the Khan Teniri Nature Park has expanded snow leopard habitat in the Central Tien Shan mountains by 40%. A Tool for Climate Policy The UNEP Atlas offers Kyrgyz policymakers a vital evidence base for sustainable environmental management and climate adaptation. It is designed to guide future strategies as the country faces mounting ecological and socio-economic pressures.