World Bank Research - The Times Of Central Asia

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Labor migrants

Russia’s Crackdown Forces Central Asia to Rethink Labor Migration

The most recent World Bank study on labor migration highlighted the immense scale of the issue, describing it as "an ongoing development challenge in Europe and Central Asia, which is currently home to 100 million migrants," roughly one-third of all migrants globally. Historically, Russia has been the primary destination for Central Asia's mobile labor force. However, since March 2024, Moscow’s increasingly restrictive migration policies have forced Central Asian states to confront a dual challenge: managing displaced workers and rethinking the logistics of cross-border labor flows. As of 2023, more than 80% of labor migrants from Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan were working in Russia. Migration from Uzbekistan was more diversified, with 57% of migrants heading to Russia, 15% to Kazakhstan, and 10% to Ukraine. For millions across the region, labor migration remains a vital economic lifeline. According to the World Bank report, The Journey Ahead: Supporting Successful Migration in Europe and Central Asia, remittances in 2024 accounted for 45% of Tajikistan’s GDP, the highest ratio globally. In Kyrgyzstan, remittances made up 24% of GDP, while in Uzbekistan the figure was 14%. A 2025 update increased the figure for Tajikistan further still, noting that domestic consumption was "supported by large remittance inflows - peaking at 49% of GDP in 2024." Since the start of the war in Ukraine, rhetoric in the Russian media and among some politicians toward Central Asian migrants has increasingly shifted toward overt hostility. Following the March 2024 terrorist attack at Moscow’s Crocus City Hall, in which Tajik nationals were named among the suspects, Russia began implementing harsher measures. This included widespread street inspections of Kyrgyz, Uzbek, and Tajik citizens, alongside new, more restrictive legal frameworks. While certain steps, such as mandatory biometric data collection, were officially justified by security concerns, other policies have further complicated daily life for foreign nationals. For example, since January 2025, all foreign-owned SIM cards in Russia have been deactivated. Foreign citizens must now register with government agencies to obtain new mobile services, a policy framed as a response to telecom fraud. Another measure, introduced on June 30, requires citizens of visa-free countries to register in the “Gosuslugi RuID” app before entering Russia. They must obtain a digital code to pass border control, effectively instituting a pre-entry surveillance mechanism. Kazakhstan was the first to publicly respond, with Foreign Ministry spokesman Aibek Smadiyarov refusing to rule out reciprocal measures against Russian citizens. “We are studying this issue very carefully. It requires consultations with our government agencies,” Smadiyarov said. Yet, despite these developments, none of the Central Asian countries currently maintains a comprehensive migration strategy equipped to handle these shifting dynamics. In Kazakhstan, the issue came to the fore in 2025 with a noticeable influx of Tajik nationals, the group most affected by Russia’s new rules. At a government meeting in late July, officials noted that Kazakhstan had recorded a positive migration balance for the second consecutive year, as well as a 1.5-fold increase in the number of foreign citizens permanently residing in the country. “The importance...

Air Pollution

World Bank: Over 65,000 Premature Deaths a Year in Central Asia Linked To Air Pollution

Air pollution remains one of the most pressing environmental and public health challenges in Central Asia, with significant consequences for human life and regional economies. A new World Bank assessment highlights the scale of the crisis, linking poor air quality to more than 65,000 premature deaths in 2021 across the region. The report identifies pollution from fossil fuel combustion, especially for heating and transportation, as a major contributor to declining air quality in both urban and rural areas. Transboundary sand and dust storms are compounding the problem, affecting multiple countries simultaneously. In many Central Asian cities, concentrations of fine particulate matter (PM2.5) exceed safe limits by a wide margin. During the winter, levels can spike to six to twelve times higher than the World Health Organization’s recommended thresholds. The economic burden is also staggering: the annual health costs associated with air pollution are estimated at $15-21 billion, representing 3-5% of the region’s GDP in 2022. Human-Caused Emissions Dominate According to experts, 50-80% of PM2.5 exposure is due to human activity, primarily the burning of solid fuels for heating in households and small businesses. While natural dust is a contributing factor in some areas, anthropogenic sources remain the dominant driver. The World Bank argues that this crisis can be mitigated with the right policy interventions. Effective strategies include reducing emissions from household heating, traffic, and industrial operations, as well as expanding urban green spaces. To better coordinate efforts, the Bank advocates for an “airshed approach”, a governance model that promotes joint responsibility between national and local authorities to improve air quality. Additional recommendations include strengthening air quality laws and monitoring systems, updating standards, raising public awareness, and enhancing cross-border cooperation among Central Asian states. Impact on Children A separate report by UNICEF underscores the disproportionate toll air pollution takes on children. In 2021, approximately 6,441 children and teenagers across Europe and Central Asia died from air pollution-related causes, 85% of them under the age of one. UNICEF stressed that these deaths were entirely preventable. Experts maintain that improving air quality could yield wide-ranging benefits, including increased productivity, reduced healthcare costs, and enhanced quality of life. They urge governments to integrate air quality management into climate and development plans to unlock additional financial and technical assistance.

Education

Expanding Preschool Education Boosts Women’s Employment in Uzbekistan

Expanding access to preschool education has emerged as a key factor in increasing women’s employment in Uzbekistan, according to a recent study by World Bank economists Chiyu Niu and Avralt-Od Purevjav, along with Central European University researcher Dilnovaz Abdurazzokova. Covering the years 2018 to 2022, the study examines how public investment in early childhood education has influenced female labor force participation. In regions with the most substantial growth in preschool availability, women’s employment rose by 12%, equivalent to a 3.3 percentage point increase. From Reform to Results In 2017, less than 30% of Uzbek children aged 3 to 7 were enrolled in preschool, one of the lowest rates globally. In response, the government launched sweeping reforms: within four years, the number of kindergartens tripled, significantly expanding access in both urban and rural areas. The researchers analyzed data from the "Listening to the Citizens of Uzbekistan" survey, which samples approximately 1,500 households monthly, alongside official labor market and education statistics. Not Just Childcare, But an Investment In many Uzbek households, childcare is traditionally provided by extended family members such as grandmothers, aunts, and older siblings. However, the study found that access to formal preschool services offers a more sustainable and consistent impact on women’s employment. One striking finding was a cultural shift in how kindergartens are perceived: once seen primarily as childcare, they are now increasingly viewed as investments in a child's development. Despite preschool costs ranging from 25% to 200% of a woman’s monthly income, many families are willing to pay, recognizing the long-term value. “The expansion of kindergartens motivates families to work, it’s not just about time, but about purpose,” the researchers noted. Many women return to work not only because they have more time, but also to help cover the cost of preschool. A Multigenerational Effect The study also observed a broader labor market ripple effect: once children are enrolled in preschool, not only mothers but also grandmothers and aunts often seek employment. This illustrates a critical dynamic, when childcare responsibilities are shared more evenly, the overall economic participation of women increases. Yet, access to preschool alone cannot close all gender gaps. In 2021, Uzbekistan's gender gap in labor force participation stood at 28 percentage points. Youth unemployment among women was 15.5%, compared to 10% for men, and 42% of young women (ages 15-24) were not in employment, education, or training (NEET), compared to just 8.8% of young men. Women also earned 34% less than men on average, well above the global average gender wage gap of 20%. These figures highlight that while childcare reform is foundational, it must be accompanied by broader efforts to create meaningful employment opportunities for women. A Model for Conservative Societies Uzbekistan’s experience offers valuable lessons for other nations with strong family traditions. It demonstrates that investing in childcare infrastructure can lead to measurable improvements in economic participation, even in traditionally conservative societies. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, this topic was also discussed at the IV International Legal Forum “Tashkent...