Opinion: What Uzbekistan’s FIFA World Cup Breakthrough Tells Us About State-Building

When Uzbekistan's goalkeeper Utkir Yusupov made those crucial saves against the UAE last night, securing his country's first-ever FIFA World Cup qualification, he was putting the finishing touches to a decade-long story about how nations build capacity, and what happens when they finally get it right. Uzbekistan's journey to the 2026 World Cup is not just a sports story. Go deeper, and you'll find something more interesting: a case study in institutional development. The Numbers Don't Lie Consider what Uzbekistan has pulled off in recent years. At Rio 2016, the country won 13 Olympic medals, placing 21st globally. In Tokyo, they obtained three gold medals despite disruptions caused by the pandemic. Uzbekistan achieved its best-ever performance at the Paris Olympics, securing 13 medals (8 gold, 2 silver, and 3 bronze), placing them 13th overall in the medal standings, first among post-Soviet states, and fourth among Asian nations overall. But the real story is the systematic nature of their success. Seven of those 13 Rio medals came in boxing alone, with three golds. At the 2023 World Boxing Championships in Tashkent, Uzbek fighters received five gold medals, the tournament's best overall performance. Boxers also dominated the Paris Olympics, bringing five gold medals to the national team’s account. Uzbekistan’s youth football teams have been even more dominant: AFC U-23 champions in 2018, U-20 Asian Cup winners in 2023, and U-17 continental champions twice since 2012. This is not random. Big tournaments reward institutional capacity, not just individual talent. Success on this scale requires functional sports federations, coherent youth development systems, and the kind of long-term planning that only works when bureaucracies can actually implement policies rather than just announce them. Small Economy, Outsized Results What makes Uzbekistan's breakthrough particularly striking is the economic context. Uzbekistan is not Germany or Japan leveraging massive GDP advantages. Uzbekistan's sports budget doubled to roughly $230 million by 2025, serious money for the country, but pocket change compared to what traditional powers spend. Yet they're outperforming nations with far deeper pockets. Their junior teams dominate youth football rankings. Their boxers routinely defeat athletes from wealthier countries. That efficiency ratio, results per dollar invested, suggests something important is happening at the governance level. The government has built over a hundred new sports facilities while doubling coaches' salaries. President Mirziyoyev's Presidential Olympics program scouts talent across all regions, attracting the best prospects to national training centers. Athletes now receive meaningful incentives: houses, cars, and scholarships. This is a systematic investment with clear metrics and accountability. The Quiet Politics of Athletic Success Sports remain one of the few arenas where state effectiveness can reveal itself without the outsized intrusion of politics. You can't fake your way to consistent Olympic medals or sustained success in FIFA youth competitions. These achievements require multiple sectors - education, healthcare, and urban planning - to function in coordination. Uzbekistan's sporting surge coincides with broader signs of improved state capacity under Mirziyoyev's administration. The infrastructure investments are real. The youth development programs are producing measurable results....

Uzbekistan Qualify for the FIFA World Cup

On June 5, history was made in Uzbekistan as the national football team qualified for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. A nervy 0-0 draw against the United Arab Emirates in Abu Dhabi was enough to secure them a place at next year’s tournament in North America. It marks the first time that the 34-year-old nation will appear in the final stages of the competition. They become only the third nation from the former USSR, after Russia and Ukraine, and the first from Central Asia, to do so. A Night of Nerves The final hurdle was not an easy one. The Uzbeks faced an intimidating atmosphere even before kick-off, with long airport screening processes meaning over 100 fans were detained for between 7-9 hours at Sharjah airport. Then there was the weather, even at 8pm, the Al Nahyan Stadium in Abu Dhabi sweltered in 31-degree heat. Nevertheless, the team was helped by an Uzbek away support that did not cease all match. The away section was full well before kick-off, and the chants of “Oz-Bek-Is-Ton!”, accompanied by the pounding of drums, could be heard around the stadium. The Uzbeks, with just one loss in their nine-match qualifying campaign, have built their play around a solid defense. In six out of their nine qualifying matches, they did not concede a goal. The team’s star player, Manchester City’s Abdukodir Khusanov, has been the lynchpin of that formidable rearguard, but this is not a side of individuals. The whole team worked tenaciously for each other, and even when their protection was breached, the impressive Uktir Yusupov was on hand to make a few smart saves. Towards the end, the Uzbek fans and coaching staff were screaming at the referee to blow the final whistle after he added ten minutes of additional time. But when time was finally up, well-earned and long-awaited joy was plain to see on every face. Several players broke out sobbing. Celebrations The elation was shared not only by the players. The Uzbek media present in the stadium were seen jumping around the press box in delirium. Back home in Uzbekistan, where half the country had stayed up to watch the match, there was similar joy. “The feeling is indescribable. We’ve been waiting for this day for thirty-four years!” said Diyor Mirpolatov, a 19-year-old student from Tashkent told The Times of Central Asia. Xojiakbar Xamdamov, a graphic designer from Andijan, also could not hide his relief at finally making the tournament. “The failure had even become part of Uzbek pop culture,” he said. “It gets mentioned by standup comedians, in movies, on talk shows… now I think everything will change.” Mirpolotov says that he plans to go to the United States for the tournament: “I’m also going to apply as a volunteer for the World Cup, so I can get more access to matches.” His dream is to see his country play against Portugal. “It would be amazing for Cristiano Ronaldo to play against Uzbekistan,” he said. Xamadov is more circumspect. “Uzbekistan is one of those countries from...