When Uzbekistan’s goalkeeper Utkir Yusupov made those crucial saves against the UAE last night, securing his country’s first-ever FIFA World Cup qualification, he was putting the finishing touches to a decade-long story about how nations build capacity, and what happens when they finally get it right.
Uzbekistan’s journey to the 2026 World Cup is not just a sports story. Go deeper, and you’ll find something more interesting: a case study in institutional development.
The Numbers Don’t Lie
Consider what Uzbekistan has pulled off in recent years. At Rio 2016, the country won 13 Olympic medals, placing 21st globally. In Tokyo, they obtained three gold medals despite disruptions caused by the pandemic. Uzbekistan achieved its best-ever performance at the Paris Olympics, securing 13 medals (8 gold, 2 silver, and 3 bronze), placing them 13th overall in the medal standings, first among post-Soviet states, and fourth among Asian nations overall.
But the real story is the systematic nature of their success.
Seven of those 13 Rio medals came in boxing alone, with three golds. At the 2023 World Boxing Championships in Tashkent, Uzbek fighters received five gold medals, the tournament’s best overall performance. Boxers also dominated the Paris Olympics, bringing five gold medals to the national team’s account.
Uzbekistan’s youth football teams have been even more dominant: AFC U-23 champions in 2018, U-20 Asian Cup winners in 2023, and U-17 continental champions twice since 2012.
This is not random. Big tournaments reward institutional capacity, not just individual talent. Success on this scale requires functional sports federations, coherent youth development systems, and the kind of long-term planning that only works when bureaucracies can actually implement policies rather than just announce them.
Small Economy, Outsized Results
What makes Uzbekistan’s breakthrough particularly striking is the economic context. Uzbekistan is not Germany or Japan leveraging massive GDP advantages. Uzbekistan’s sports budget doubled to roughly $230 million by 2025, serious money for the country, but pocket change compared to what traditional powers spend.
Yet they’re outperforming nations with far deeper pockets. Their junior teams dominate youth football rankings. Their boxers routinely defeat athletes from wealthier countries. That efficiency ratio, results per dollar invested, suggests something important is happening at the governance level.
The government has built over a hundred new sports facilities while doubling coaches’ salaries. President Mirziyoyev’s Presidential Olympics program scouts talent across all regions, attracting the best prospects to national training centers. Athletes now receive meaningful incentives: houses, cars, and scholarships. This is a systematic investment with clear metrics and accountability.
The Quiet Politics of Athletic Success
Sports remain one of the few arenas where state effectiveness can reveal itself without the outsized intrusion of politics. You can’t fake your way to consistent Olympic medals or sustained success in FIFA youth competitions. These achievements require multiple sectors – education, healthcare, and urban planning – to function in coordination.
Uzbekistan’s sporting surge coincides with broader signs of improved state capacity under Mirziyoyev’s administration. The infrastructure investments are real. The youth development programs are producing measurable results. The bureaucratic reforms that enable coaches to be paid properly and facilities to be maintained suggest a departure from the pure patronage politics that characterized the Karimov era.
What This Means Beyond the Pitch
Uzbekistan’s World Cup qualification should be understood as one data point in a larger pattern of institutional development. The same state capacity that produces Olympic champions also builds roads, improves healthcare delivery, and attracts foreign investment. The organizational competence that turned Uzbek boxing into a global powerhouse doesn’t exist in isolation from other forms of governance.
The sporting successes serve both genuine developmental purposes and political ones, bolstering the narrative of a “New Uzbekistan” under strong leadership.
When Uzbekistan takes the field at the 2026 World Cup, they’ll represent more than just 35 million people cheering from home. They’ll embody a particular model of how nations can build capacity and deliver results, even when the political architecture remains a work in progress.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the official policy or position of the publication, its affiliates, or any other organizations mentioned.
