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Population

Uzbekistan Population Growth: 20 Years To Use a Window of Opportunity

Uzbekistan has a limited window of opportunity to turn its rapidly growing young population into a driver of long-term economic growth, according to a new study on demographic trends and human capital development in the country. The report, produced as part of a broader regional study on Central Asia, analyzes the prospects of young people up to the age of 24, as well as the impact that a range of investments in their well-being could have on national development through 2050. Approximately 60% of Uzbekistan’s population is under the age of 30. As this generation enters the workforce, the country is expected to gain the largest labor force in its history. Researchers argue that this creates the conditions for a “demographic dividend,” a period during which a high proportion of working-age citizens can accelerate economic growth and boost productivity. However, the report warns that such an outcome is far from guaranteed. Uzbekistan’s demographic opening is also a labor-market test. UNDP has estimated that around 700,000 young people enter the country’s job market each year, while warning that many graduates still lack practical, market-relevant skills. That makes education, vocational training, and job creation central to whether population growth becomes an economic advantage or a source of pressure. “Uzbekistan risks missing the opportunity for accelerated economic growth due to underdeveloped human capital,” the authors state. One indicator of the challenge is Uzbekistan’s score of 0.6 in the World Bank’s Human Capital Index. This suggests that children born in the country today are likely to realize only 60% of their potential future productivity compared with what would be possible with full access to quality education and good health outcomes. The UN has framed the issue in similar terms, saying targeted investments in early childhood, including health, nutrition, early learning, and social protection, could help close Uzbekistan’s human-capital gap and generate additional economic returns by 2050. Uzbekistan’s population is projected to grow from approximately 38 million people in 2025 to more than 40 million by 2030 and reach around 52 million by 2050. In 2024, the country was home to 11.3 million children under the age of 15, 23.9 million working-age adults, and 2.2 million people aged 65 and older. By 2050, the working-age population is expected to exceed 33 million, while the number of elderly citizens is projected to triple to more than 6 million. Researchers note that Uzbekistan is currently in what demographers describe as the “early-dividend” phase, during which fertility rates gradually decline while the share of working-age citizens continues to rise. The average number of children per woman has fallen from more than four in the early 1990s to approximately 3.45 in 2025 and is expected to decline further to 2.55 by mid-century. The report’s authors argue that the next two decades will be critical for Uzbekistan’s future economic trajectory. They recommend increased investment in education, healthcare, nutrition, child protection, social protection, water supply, sanitation infrastructure, and labor market development. According to the study, investments in human capital during the...

Armed Forces

In the Line of Duty: Hazing, Tragedy, and Reform in Kazakhstan’s Armed Forces

Kazakhstan mandates universal military conscription for men between the ages of 18 and 27, with a standard service term of 12 months. Tens of thousands of young men are drafted into the military each year during two annual call-up periods. Evasion is illegal, yet public attitudes toward mandatory service are increasingly ambivalent. Officially, military service is presented as an honorable civic duty, with promises of educational preferences and social benefits upon completion. In practice, many young Kazakhs seek ways to avoid conscription, motivated not just by the disruption of a year out of civilian life, but by fears of hazing and abuse. ‘Hazing’ refers to a covert system of informal hierarchy in which senior conscripts intimidate and mistreat new recruits. Although the Ministry of Defense claims such practices were eradicated in the 2010s through reform and a transition to a mixed staffing model combining conscripts and contract soldiers, hazing has remained a persistent issue. According to a Demoscope survey from September 2025, 37.8% of Kazakhstanis said violence and informal power structures in the army are excessive. Among respondents aged 18–29, support for a full transition to a professional contract army was significantly higher, reflecting broader concerns about conditions and safety. For many families, a draft notice is not a matter of honor but a potential sentence. The Dark Side of the Barracks: Fatalities and Scandals Kazakhstan’s armed forces have faced a troubling number of peacetime deaths in recent years, prompting growing public concern. Between 2020 and 2022, 259 servicemen died across the armed forces and other security agencies, with at least 11 more deaths reported in early 2023. In late 2025, MP Nartay Sarsengaliyev noted that 270 soldiers had died in three years. In January 2026 alone, three incidents raised alarms: a National Guard serviceman died in Shymkent on January 6; another soldier died from a gunshot wound in Ust-Kamenogorsk on January 23; and a serviceman in the Zhambyl region died from a firearms injury on January 27. While the causes ranged from illness to the accidental mishandling of weapons, many families suspect hazing and abuse as underlying factors. Several high-profile cases from 2025 further damaged public trust. In January, 18-year-old Dastan Kurmanbek was found dead from a gunshot wound in a Saryozek unit; the military declared it a suicide, but his family alleged murder. That spring, 18-year-old Salamat Sabitov, who was drafted despite serious health issues according to his family, died of meningitis just one month into his service. In September, 19-year-old Dinmukhamed Shynarbek was found dead in a military unit in the Almaty region; officials again claimed suicide, but relatives rejected the explanation and demanded an independent investigation. Officers have also been implicated in violence. In summer 2024, a conscript in the Mangystau region was reportedly shot in the face by a superior officer. One of the most publicized cases was that of 22-year-old National Guard soldier Yerbayan Mukhtar, who suffered a severe head injury under suspicious circumstances in a barracks bathroom in December 2023. Though military doctors...

Education reform

World Bank Approves $250 Million Loan to Expand Student Financing in Uzbekistan

The World Bank has approved a $250 million loan to support Uzbekistan’s ambitious reform of its student financing system, the institution announced on December 11. The funding will back the Edulmkon Program, a three-year initiative aimed at expanding equitable access to higher and vocational education across the country. Scheduled for implementation between 2026 and 2028, the program is expected to benefit approximately 600,000 young people. Roughly 80% of the loan will be allocated to tuition loans for students from low-income families and for women, groups that continue to face significant barriers to accessing higher education. Uzbekistan, home to around 10 million people aged 14 to 30, has made educational reform a national priority in recent years. This push has led to a surge in the number of universities and vocational institutions, as well as a dramatic rise in enrollment. Between 2017 and 2024, youth participation in higher education increased from 8% to 48%. However, the rapid expansion has exposed weaknesses in the country’s student loan system, which is based on state subsidized loans issued through commercial banks. The World Bank has noted that the current model is not well aligned with labor market needs, as loans are not directed toward high demand fields such as science, technology, engineering, and mathematics (STEM), as well as information and communication technology (ICT). This misalignment has contributed to graduate underemployment, while gender disparities persist. Although women represent more than half of all university students and are the primary recipients of tuition loans, only one-third of female students are enrolled in STEM disciplines. The Edulmkon Program, to be led by the Ministry of Economy and Finance, will address these challenges through a series of reforms. These include modernizing tuition loan management, improving inter-agency coordination, and launching a centralized digital platform to streamline loan processing and improve transparency. The program will also revise eligibility and subsidy criteria to better serve vulnerable students. A cornerstone of the reform is the introduction of an income-contingent loan system, where repayments are based on a graduate’s income. This approach is designed to protect low-income borrowers and those facing temporary unemployment after graduation. By the end of 2028, students are expected to access loans through 12 participating commercial banks operating in coordination with the Ministry. The World Bank also noted that the program aims to attract approximately $30 million in private capital, reducing fiscal pressure on the state while expanding access to education financing.

Q-Pop

Q-Pop Is Back. Is Kazakhstan Ready This Time?

Around 2015, Kazakhstan saw the rise of Q-pop, led by the boy band Ninety One. A decade on, the cultural tension remains: while youth artists enjoy greater visibility, many observers argue that freedom of expression is still shaped by a silent boundary — ‘you can make music, but not stir too much controversy. A little over a decade ago, five young men in earrings and pastel clothes released “Aıyptama!” (“Don’t blame me”) - a slick, catchy track in Kazakh, with a video that looked like it came straight out of Seoul. The group, Ninety One, was born out of a reality TV show modeled on the K-pop system. At the time, Kazakh-language pop had little presence on mainstream radio or TV, where Russian-language and Western hits dominated. Much of the Kazakh-language music most people heard came from weddings and folk performances rather than commercial pop charts. Occidental pop, rock and Russian-language hip hop ruled the charts. So, when Azamat Zenkaev (AZ), Dulat Mukhamedkaliev (Zaq), Daniyar Kulumshin (Bala), Batyrkhan Malikov (Alem), and Azamat Ashmakyn (Ace) debuted as a group, they looked and sounded like nothing the local music scene had ever seen. Their appearance sparked outrage. In Karaganda, a 2016 concert was canceled after protests. “We are against them because they dye their hair and wear earrings!” a demonstrator shouted, captured in the 2021 documentary Men Sen Emes (Sing Your Own Songs) by Katerina Suvorova. “No parent would want their son to look like a woman,” a conservative activist added. Even their producer, Yerbolat Bedelkhan, noted, “They shook up Kazakh show business with their unusual looks.” And yet, their rise was unstoppable. Despite boycotts and online abuse, Ninety One topped national charts. Each video release became an event. Over time, their success helped make gender-fluid aesthetics more visible in Kazakhstan’s pop scene — and made singing in Kazakh fashionable again among young audiences. But their aesthetics stood in sharp contrast to the state-promoted model of Kazakh masculinity. [caption id="attachment_37776" align="aligncenter" width="770"] Ninety One; image: JUZ Entertainment[/caption] Revival and Restriction: The State’s Masculine Ideal In 2017, then-President Nursultan Nazarbayev launched Rukhani Zhangyru – a sweeping state program for “spiritual renewal.” Its goal was to forge a unified Kazakh national identity after decades of Soviet domination, largely by reigniting traditional values. Streets were renamed after historical khans, a National Dombra Day was established, and the country began shifting from Cyrillic to the Latin alphabet. But the cultural revival came with a gender script. School textbooks were rewritten, according to a 2021 Rutgers University study, to cast masculinity as a blend of strength, rationality, and emotional restraint. The ideal Kazakh man - the Batyr - was reimagined as a stoic warrior of the steppes. In this context, Ninety One’s aesthetics didn’t fit in. “Many thought Q-pop artists didn’t act like ‘real Kazakhs’,” Merey Otan, a musician and PhD candidate at Nazarbayev University told The Times of Central Asia. “Wearing makeup, earrings, or bright clothes, expressing emotions or sexuality – these all clashed with a...

Entrepreneurship

Kazakhstan’s Youth Face Barriers to Entrepreneurship

A recent analysis by the analytical portal Ranking.kz reveals a concerning stagnation in youth entrepreneurship in Kazakhstan. Despite government rhetoric promoting innovation and small business, the number of young individual entrepreneurs has remained nearly flat over the past two years. Youth Entrepreneurship by the Numbers As of the end of Q1 2025, Kazakhstan recorded 736,100 individual entrepreneurs (IE) under the age of 35. Of these, 698,900 are active. The growth rate over two years is just 0.2%, signaling stagnation rather than progress. The decline in young entrepreneurs' share of the total business landscape underscores this trend. In 2023, they made up 50.9% of all active IEs; by 2025, that figure dropped to 47.3%. According to the National Statistics Bureau, today’s young entrepreneur in Kazakhstan is more likely to be a woman (55.4%) than a man (44.6%). Urban residents dominate the demographic, comprising about 75.3% of the total, while rural entrepreneurs represent only 24.7%. Sectoral Growth and Decline Trade remains the leading sector for young entrepreneurs, employing 303,300 individuals, though it saw no growth over the past year. The most significant expansion occurred in transportation and logistics, which grew by 90.1% to 49,700 entrepreneurs. Construction also showed positive movement, with a 10.7% increase, totaling 21,000 entrepreneurs. In contrast, other sectors experienced contraction: agriculture dropped by 25.1%, manufacturing by 11.9%, and real estate by 2.8%. These declines suggest a shift away from traditionally accessible sectors for new entrepreneurs. Geographically, growth was concentrated in major urban centers. Almaty leads with 121,200 active young entrepreneurs, followed by Astana (89,500) and Shymkent (62,100). Modest gains were also observed in the Almaty, Kostanay, Pavlodar, and North Kazakhstan regions. The Ulytau region registered the lowest number, with just 6,700 young individual entrepreneurs. Barriers to Growth The Atameken National Chamber of Entrepreneurs' 2024 "Business Climate" rating provides insight into regional variations in the ease of doing business. Entrepreneurs in Shymkent, Kyzylorda, and Ulytau reported the most favorable conditions. Conversely, Astana, Pavlodar, and North Kazakhstan ranked lowest. Key challenges cited by entrepreneurs include: High tax burdens (44% of respondents) Excessive bureaucracy and a complex licensing system (43.1%) Frequent inspections by regulatory authorities (42.4%) Corruption, especially in land allocation and public procurement These issues are reflected in the National Bank's 2025 Q1 business sentiment survey, where 31.4% of respondents cited taxes as the primary obstacle, while 30% pointed to broader economic conditions and high competition. Despite a vibrant and youthful potential workforce, Kazakhstan’s business environment continues to present structural challenges that deter innovation and sustainable growth. Addressing these barriers will be critical if the country is to harness its demographic dividend and support the next generation of entrepreneurs.

Gender Equality

Gender Inequality in Marriage: The Role of the Kelin in Kyrgyzstan

Gender inequality in marriage remains a significant issue in Kyrgyzstan, particularly with regard to the role of the kelin - the daughter-in-law - who is traditionally expected to shoulder numerous household responsibilities. In this patriarchal society, women often face pressure from their husbands' families, limited career opportunities, and an unequal division of domestic labor. According to recent data, 12.9% of women in Kyrgyzstan marry before the age of 18. This figure nearly doubles in rural areas compared to urban ones, reflecting stark regional disparities. Many families continue to uphold traditional expectations for women, especially the kelin, who is considered responsible for caring for her husband, his parents, the children, and the household. The Kelin: Between Tradition and Change Kyrgyz women have varying attitudes toward their role in the family. While some accept these expectations as part of their cultural heritage, others see them as a problem requiring change. Personal Stories Aizhan, 24, Osh (name changed): "After marriage, I was expected to leave my job and devote myself fully to the household. Although my husband supports my career aspirations, there is pressure from both his parents and mine. In the early years of our marriage, I had to prove that I was a good wife - cooking, cleaning, and pleasing my mother-in-law - even though I had the opportunity to build a career. My parents also insisted that I focus on household duties to avoid being ridiculed by others. This frustrates me, but my husband stands by me." Nuria, 25, Naryn (name changed): "In our social circle, it is rare for young couples to strive for equality in marriage. Traditional expectations remain strong, and sometimes compromises are necessary to maintain peace in the family. Early in my marriage, I didn’t feel much pressure, but after the birth of my child, I was often reminded that my primary role was now to be a mother and the keeper of the hearth." Ainura, 23, Bishkek (name changed): "In the capital, it's easier to be independent. More people here support the idea of equal rights. However, even in Bishkek, many girls face the expectation of becoming perfect kelins. This pressure usually comes from parents who cling to traditional values." Societal Expectations Beyond Marriage For many young women, gendered expectations begin long before they marry. From an early age, girls are taught to prioritize marriage and family above personal ambitions. Saule, 22, Bishkek: "I’m 20 and don’t want to get married yet, but my relatives constantly hint that ‘the clock is ticking’ and that I should start looking for a groom. They don’t understand that I have other plans. Sometimes they introduce me to potential suitors, which is awkward and frustrating." In some families, restrictions are imposed on daughters to preserve their "marriage prospects." Kamilla, 23, Bishkek: "I was often told to be modest, avoid friendships with boys, and dress conservatively because ‘I had to get married.’ Many girls like me missed out on a full teenage experience. However, I’ve noticed that the younger generation...