Kazakhstan Business & Economy - The Times Of Central Asia

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EBRD Downgrades Kazakhstan’s 2025 GDP Forecast

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan downward, from 5.2% to 4.9%. The adjustment was published in the bank’s May regional economic outlook. According to the EBRD, the downward revision is largely due to Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in the first quarter being driven primarily by higher oil output at the Tengiz field. While this expansion has supported short-term growth, the bank questions the sustainability of oil production as a long-term driver, particularly under current OPEC+ production limits. Oil Output and Constraints Tengizchevroil (TCO), the operator of the country’s largest oil field, increased daily production at Tengiz to a record 870,000 barrels in January 2025, up 45% from the 2024 average. Output climbed further to 950,000 barrels in March, before dipping slightly to an average of 884,000 barrels per day in early April. Industry projections suggest production may eventually reach one million barrels per day. However, the EBRD cautions that such gains may be constrained by Kazakhstan’s obligations under the OPEC+ agreement. In addition to concerns about oil production, the bank notes the risk of declining demand for Kazakh oil and metals, key exports, especially from China, one of Kazakhstan’s main trading partners. Inflation and Domestic Demand Rising inflation presents another significant challenge. Consumer prices rose 8.9% in January, 9.4% in February, and hit 10% in March, the highest level since November 2023. In April, inflation climbed further to 10.7%, raising concerns about the erosion of domestic purchasing power. Broader Economic Indicators Despite the EBRD’s revised forecast, the Ministry of National Economy reported on May 12 that Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 6% in the first four months of 2025. For the January-March period, growth was recorded at 5.8%, supported by a range of sectors: transport (22.4%), trade (7%), agriculture (3.9%), and communications (2.6%). Growth in the transport sector was driven by an increase in freight volumes via rail and pipeline, accounting for 20.5% and 19.6% of sectoral output, respectively. Wholesale trade expanded by 7.4%, and retail trade by 6.1%. Outlook As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, several analysts view ongoing volatility in global markets as indicative of a looming “perfect storm” for Kazakhstan’s economy. This sentiment is echoed in the EBRD’s cautious outlook, highlighting a convergence of external and internal pressures on the country's economic stability.

The Abu Dhabi-Kazakhstan Connection

Crown Prince of Abu Dhabi Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan led a delegation of officials and businessmen from the United Arab Emirates on a visit to Kazakhstan to attend the Kazakhstan-UAE Business Forum on May 12. During the visit, Kazakhstan and the UAE signed deals worth some $5 billion and not surprisingly, three of the nine agreements were with Abu Dhabi Ports Group. Building a new trade route to the south Abu Dhabi Ports Group (AD Ports Group) has been leading the way in connecting Kazakhstan to the Middle East, and in turn, the UAE company is looking to take advantage of Kazakhstan’s key position along the Middle Corridor trade route. In early August 2023, Davud Tafti, the head of AD Ports Group subsidiary Simatech Shipping & Forwarding, met with Kazakhstan’s Minister of Trade Serik Zhumangarin to discuss the shortest direct route for shipping “Kazakh export cargo the markets of the Persian Gulf, the Middle East, Pakistan, India and the coast of East Africa.” The route goes from Kazakhstan’s Caspian port of Kuryk to the Iranian Caspian port at Amirabad. From there goods are shipped to the Iranian Persian Gulf port at Bandar Abbas and loaded onto ships heading to UAE ports at Khalifa and Fujairah. The total time from Kuryk to Bandar Abbas is three days. By the time Tafti and Zhumangarin met, AD Ports Group had already purchased four ships with a capacity of 7.500 tons each for transportation of bulk, container, and general cargo along Caspian Sea routes. Tafti said there were plans to buy ten more similar vessels with Amirabad being used as their home port. Simatech Shipping & Forwarding also bought two barges, each capable of transporting 350 trucks, with plans to purchase 1,000 trucks for shipping goods between Amirabad and Bandar Abbas. AD Ports Group signed a strategic partnership agreement with state oil and gas company KazMunaiGas (KMG) in January 2023 aimed at developing Kazakhstan’s tanker fleet in the Caspian and Black seas. The parties formed a joint venture called Caspian Integrated Maritime Solutions (CIMS). CIMS announced in December 2023 that working with KMG subsidiary KazMorTransFlot, Kazakhstan’s national shipping company, it had acquired two oil tankers for use in the Caspian Sea. AD Ports Group reached an agreement in January 2024 to construct a facility on Kazakhstan’s Caspian coast for building and repairing ships. Work started in early 2025 on two container vessels, each with the capacity to carry more than 500 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEU) and built especially for use on the Caspian Sea. AD Ports Group also formed a joint venture with state railway company Kazakhstan Temir Zholy in December 2023 with the aim of improving logistics operations for transferring goods using rail and maritime routes. At the moment, the CIMS route is by far the fastest way for Kazakhstan to trade with the Middle East. In May 2025, Kazakhstan Temir Zholy sent the first shipment of wheat via Turkmenistan and Iran to Bandar Abbas, and from there by sea...

UAE Investor to Inject $1.1 Billion into Astana Aerotropolis Project

The Ministry of Transport of Kazakhstan has signed a long-term investment agreement with Terminals Astana Airport Limited, a subsidiary of UAE-based Terminals Holding, to transform Astana International Airport into a world-class Aerotropolis. The deal, valued at $1.1 billion, was formalized on May 12 during the official visit of Crown Prince Sheikh Khalid bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan of Abu Dhabi to Kazakhstan. Strategic Infrastructure Development The agreement outlines a comprehensive development plan, including the construction of a second runway, a third passenger terminal, and a dedicated cargo terminal at Astana International Airport. According to the Ministry of Transport, the investor also aims to build a multifunctional Aerotropolis complex, encompassing an industrial and logistics zone, a business cluster, hotels, retail space, and logistics terminals. An Aerotropolis is a modern urban model that integrates aviation, logistics, and commercial infrastructure to create a self-sustaining hub catering to both passengers and businesses. The concept is designed to provide short-term accommodation and consumer services in proximity to the airport, effectively transforming it into a small city. Operational Modernization In addition to physical infrastructure, the project includes plans to modernize the airport's operational systems. Terminals Astana Airport Limited will upgrade the fleet of specialized airport equipment, introduce digital solutions and automation, and implement phased training and retraining programs for airport staff. Following the restoration of municipal control over the airport in January, Astana’s local authorities extended the trust management agreement, with Terminals Astana Airport Management continuing in its role as the airport operator. Both Terminals Astana Airport Limited and the current operator are subsidiaries of Terminals Holding. In 2024, Astana International Airport served 8.315 million passengers, an 11% increase from the previous year. Broader Investment Context As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan continues to attract foreign investment in its aviation infrastructure. Earlier this year, Vietnam’s Sovico Group, which owns Kazakh airline Qazaq Air, was offered the opportunity to manage an airport in the Kyzylorda region.

Slippery Slope: How Volatile Oil Prices Threaten Kazakhstan’s Energy Giant

With global oil markets in flux and prices dipping below $70 per barrel, Kazakhstan’s state oil company faces mounting financial strain. If KazMunayGas (KMG) fails to adapt, it risks edging toward a fiscal cliff. Yet, political constraints, exacerbated by the ongoing specter of potential social unrest, have hindered the company’s ability to implement reforms. OPEC+ Fuels Market Uncertainty The global oil market is entering a new period of turbulence reminiscent of the pandemic era. Despite prolonged efforts by OPEC+ to manage output and stabilize prices, the alliance’s fragile consensus unraveled this April, when Saudi Arabia and Russia led an unexpected increase in production, undermining earlier commitments and tipping the market into oversupply. Meanwhile, U.S. shale producers have continued to expand their output and export aggressively, squeezing traditional suppliers out of lucrative Asian markets. A decelerating Chinese economy, the world’s largest oil importer, adds further downward pressure. As a result, Brent crude fell below $70 per barrel in early May and briefly traded under $65. For Kazakhstan, where oil exports are a key source of budgetary and foreign exchange income, this trend spells trouble, and KMG is particularly exposed. The “Black Hole” in KMG’s Finances Public data shows that KMG’s production costs vary from $40 to $70 per barrel, depending on the field. However, factoring in transportation, taxes, and social obligations, the real breakeven point nears $90 per barrel. Aging infrastructure in the Mangistau region, reliant on constant technical upkeep and subsidies, only adds to the burden. KMG’s debt load compounds the challenge. At the end of 2024, its total debt exceeded 4 trillion tenge ($7.87 billion). With export revenues dwindling, debt servicing is becoming untenable. Even short-term dips to $60-65 per barrel could have systemic consequences, stalling new investments, triggering layoffs, and slashing social spending. A key drain is OzenMunayGas (OMG), KMG’s subsidiary in Zhanaozen, where production costs reportedly hit $90 per barrel. “OzenMunayGas exemplifies how populism, inflated promises, and stagnant reforms can turn a major asset into a financial sinkhole,” Arman Bataev, a former internal auditor at KMG has stated. On his Telegram channel, Finmentor.kz, Bataev warned that a $90 production cost versus Brent at $59 is “not a temporary hardship but a dead end.” OMG required 30 billion KZT in financial aid last year, and Bataev predicts it may require 60-70 billion KZT in 2025. KMG Downplays Risks KazMunayGas officials maintain that the company is “prepared for all scenarios” and holds “sufficient reserves.” At a May press briefing, Deputy Chairman Aset Magauov emphasized that 70% of KMG’s output is sold domestically, insulating it somewhat from global price volatility. “Analysts expect prices to average $65 per barrel this year, but forecasts are inherently uncertain,” Magauov said. “We have contingency plans and cost-optimization measures ready. We are equipped to handle price fluctuations.” Magauov also noted that domestic oil prices are lower than export prices, and products like gasoline and diesel, refined at KMG’s three facilities, are now sold at market rates following the end of state price controls. He added...

Kazakhstan and the UAE Elevate Strategic and Economic Partnership

Kazakhstan and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) are taking their long-standing partnership to new heights. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev hosted Abu Dhabi Crown Prince Sheikh Khalid bin Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan at the Akorda presidential residence, underscoring the deepening ties between the two nations. A Key Middle Eastern Partner Sheikh Khalid’s official visit was marked by a ceremonial welcome and substantive high-level talks. President Tokayev emphasized the growing breadth of the Kazakh-Emirati relationship, which now extends well beyond economics into sectors such as energy, transport, digital technologies, and education. “The UAE is among Kazakhstan’s top ten foreign investors,” Tokayev noted, citing a more than twofold increase in Emirati direct investment in 2024, a record high. During the Crown Prince’s visit, over 20 commercial agreements were signed, totaling approximately $5 billion. These projects are expected to further catalyze bilateral cooperation and open new avenues for mutual investment. Strategic Agreements Following the talks, an official document exchange ceremony was held. Key agreements included: Transport Cooperation - A memorandum between the Kazakh Ministry of Transport and the UAE Ministry of Energy and Infrastructure; Judicial Cooperation - A memorandum between the respective Ministries of Justice; Energy Infrastructure - An agreement between Samruk-Kazyna JSC and Masdar for continuous power supply (up to 500 MW) and energy storage (up to 2,000 MW); Digital Transformation - Agreements between Samruk-Kazyna JSC and AIQ, and QazaqGaz and AIQ, focusing on oil and gas sector digitalization; Financial Collaboration - A memorandum between Samruk-Kazyna JSC and Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank; High-Performance Computing - An agreement to establish a supercomputer cluster with Pre-sight; Maritime Expansion - A protocol between KazMunayGas and Abu Dhabi Ports Group on developing Kazakhstan’s merchant fleet; Healthcare Investment - A memorandum on financing and constructing a maternity hospital in Turkestan; Aviation Infrastructure - An agreement on investing in the Nursultan Nazarbayev International Airport and its surroundings; Green Energy - Announcement of the ratified agreement for a major wind power project. Expanding Cooperation Horizons President Tokayev and Sheikh Khalid also participated in the Kazakhstan-UAE Business Forum, where Tokayev reiterated the significance of expanding trade, economic, and investment ties. He highlighted the UAE’s role as Kazakhstan’s top partner in the Gulf, with cumulative Emirati investment exceeding $4.3 billion. Tokayev underscored his administration’s economic reforms aimed at fostering a more attractive investment climate, including the establishment of the Investment Promotion Council to support foreign businesses. He identified energy, logistics, finance, high technology, and agriculture as priority areas for future cooperation. Institutional and Cultural Engagement During the visit, the leaders toured the Astana International Financial Centre (AIFC), where they were briefed on the operations of the Financial Services Regulatory Committee, the stock exchange, and the International Arbitration Center. Currently, 46 UAE companies are registered residents at the AIFC. The delegation also visited the Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed Al Nahyan Lyceum No. 84, where they observed students’ progress in Arabic language studies. Later, they attended the Ethnoaul exhibition, showcasing Kazakh cultural heritage. The visit highlighted the shared commitment of Kazakhstan and the UAE...

Kazakhstan Launches Dredging Project to Expand Aktau Port on Key Trans-Caspian Corridor

Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport has initiated dredging works at the Caspian Sea port of Aktau, aiming to enhance the capacity and navigational safety of a critical hub on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), also known as the Middle Corridor. The Aktau port, located in the Mangistau region, is being deepened by 1.5 to 2 meters using specialized dredging equipment supplied by European contractor Jan De Nul. Mobilization of the equipment is set to be completed in May, with full dredging operations scheduled for completion by the fourth quarter of 2025. The project is expected to significantly increase the port's terminal capacity. Currently, Aktau handles approximately 15 million tons of cargo annually, including up to 140,000 twenty-foot equivalent units (TEUs). This infrastructure enhancement forms part of Kazakhstan’s broader strategy to develop the TITR, a key transit corridor linking China to Europe through Central Asia and the Caucasus. According to the Ministry of Transport, container traffic via the TITR through Kazakhstan surged by 3.5 times in the first quarter of 2025, reaching 25,000 TEUs, up from 7,200 TEUs during the same period in 2024. In a related development, Kazakhstan completed dredging works at another major Caspian port, Kuryk, in November 2024. That project, also executed by Jan De Nul Kazakhstan LLP, was finished in just four months. The water depth at Kuryk was increased to 7-8 meters, substantially enhancing its handling capacity and reinforcing its strategic importance on the Trans-Caspian route.