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Aktau Plane Crash

Kazakhstan’s High-Stakes Balancing Act in the Aktau Crash Investigation

The Aktau crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft, which killed 38 people on 25 December, was a tragic event with significant international repercussions. This devastating accident not only claimed lives but also raised critical questions about aviation safety and the handling of sensitive investigations. As investigators sought to determine its cause, Kazakhstan faced an important decision regarding the handling of the flight recorder. Ultimately, the country chose to transfer the recorder to Brazil, the manufacturer of the aircraft, rather than to the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as Russia had proposed. This decision reflected both technical and diplomatic considerations, marking a crucial moment in the unfolding investigation. By taking this decision, Kazakhstan adhered to established industry procedures for aviation safety investigations. Such a step highlights the country's commitment to transparency and global norms in aviation. The move is typical of the country's foreign policy under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, whose long diplomatic experience leads him to emphasize a rules-based approach over political considerations and to act in accord with established procedural norms. This choice ensured that the investigation would follow established international practices, thereby lending credibility to the process and reassuring global aviation stakeholders. This behavior is also in line with Kazakhstan's broader commitment to international law and a rules-based global order. Another notable example of this approach was its endorsement of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity through its refusal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or the independence of the Donbas regions. These decisions were not necessarily easy ones, given Kazakhstan’s economic and security ties with Russia, but they reinforced its commitment to global standards. While some observers might frame decisions like the Aktau recorder transfer as a “snub” to Russia, such characterizations would miss the point. Like Kazakhstan’s refusal to recognize Donbas as independent and its efforts to prevent the flow of military components in violation of Western sanctions, its actions are not meant to be about rejecting one partner in favor of another. Rather, acting in its own autonomous interests, Kazakhstan seeks to "do the right thing," because this maintains a consistent international profile with a steady foreign-policy course grounded in international law and practice. Kazakhstan’s mediation efforts extend beyond formal multilateral forums, showcasing its active engagement in regional and global diplomacy. The country provided a neutral platform for discussions between opposing factions in the conflict over Syria; and it has also worked to ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting purely bilateral consultations and thus demonstrating its capacity to engage constructively in regional conflicts without taking sides. These efforts are in line with Kazakhstan’s larger foreign-policy strategy to act as a principled and impartial intermediary on the global stage, fostering dialogue and reducing hostilities. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s leadership in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) reflects its dedication to multilateralism and peaceful conflict resolution. Kazakhstan exemplifies the rising middle-power archetype also through its significant contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation. Its foreign policy operates on...

Aktau Plane Crash

Aliyev Takes Aim at Russia in Azerbaijan Airlines Crash

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has intensified his criticism of Russia, accusing it of a “cover-up” over the Azerbaijan Airlines plane which crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25. During a televised address, Aliyev expressed Azerbaijan’s “surprise, regret, and righteous indignation” over what he described as “absurd” explanations for the crash. Departing from protocol, Aliyev delivered his address in Russian, a poignant choice that heightened the gravity of his message. “I can confidently say that the guilt for the deaths of Azerbaijani citizens in this accident lies with the representatives of the Russian Federation,” Aliyev stated. “We demand justice, we demand punishment of the guilty, we demand complete transparency and humane treatment… If the city of Grozny had taken timely measures to close Russian airspace over its territory, if all the rules of ground services had been observed, and if there had been coordination between the armed forces and civil services of the Russian Federation, then this tragedy would not have happened.” On Monday, Aliyev met with the two surviving flight attendants and the families of other crew members who perished, describing them as “heroes”. The Flight Recorders In a related development, Brazil has concluded its analysis of the black boxes from Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243. The Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA) confirmed that the findings were handed over to Kazakhstan’s Aviation Accident Investigation Department in line with international protocols for aircraft accident investigations. These results will contribute to the final report on the incident. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia (TCA), the incident led the Commission on Aviation Incident Investigation, headed by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, to decide to send the flight recorders to Brazil’s CENIPA. The investigation was conducted by three Brazilian specialists in collaboration with Azerbaijani and Russian experts. Chronology of the Crash The incident occurred on December 25, when an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near Aktau on Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast. The plane was flying between Baku, Azerbaijan, and Grozny, Russia. Of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed, and 29 were injured. The passengers included 37 Azerbaijani citizens, 6 Kazakhs, 3 Kyrgyz, and 16 Russians. On December 26, video footage showing small holes in the fuselage wreckage sparked speculation about possible external damage. Aviation and military analysts suggested the holes might have been caused by air defense systems, given reports from the Chechen authorities about the shooting down of Ukrainian drones in the area. This raised concerns about the potential for misidentification. [caption id="attachment_27352" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Chechen Pantsir Missile Launcher; image: Vitaly V. Kuzmin[/caption] When asked about the possibility of external fire, Kazakh Minister Marat Bozumbayev emphasized that conclusions would only be drawn after all available evidence had been examined. International Collaboration The Azerbaijani government rejected the idea of a Russian-led investigation, opting instead for an international team of experts, including representatives from Embraer. The black boxes were sent to CENIPA on December 29. The crash also prompted a temporary suspension...

Economy

Kazakhstan to Slash Imports with $2.6 Billion Domestic Output Plan

Kazakhstan's Ministry of Industry and Construction (MIC) has announced plans to reduce the country’s reliance on foreign imports by replacing goods worth KZT1.4 trillion ($2.6 billion) with domestically produced alternatives by 2025. This ambitious goal is intended to be achieved through the launch of new production facilities in the automotive and household appliances sectors. According to the MIC's Industry Committee, 190 investment projects are slated for implementation in 2025, creating over 20,000 permanent jobs for Kazakhstani workers. Once fully operational, these projects are expected to generate an output of KZT2.2 trillion ($4.1 billion), with KZT0.8 trillion ($1.5 billion) designated for export. The import substitution effort is forecasted to account for KZT1.4 trillion ($2.6 billion) of this total output. “This initiative will bolster domestic production, reduce dependence on imports, and enhance the competitiveness of Kazakhstan's national economy,” stated the committee. Trade Trends and Key Import Partners Kazakhstan's import volume for January - October 2024 was $48.4 billion, as reported by the Bureau of National Statistics. During this period, imports declined by 3.3% compared to the same timeframe in 2023. The country’s key import partners include: Russia: 29.7% of total imports China: 25.5% Germany: 4.9% USA: 3.9% France: 3.2% Republic of Korea: 3.1% The largest import categories in 2024 were cars (4.1%), aircraft (3%), medicines (2.9%), cell phones (2.7%), and motor vehicle bodies (2.1%). Significant Projects on the Horizon To address these import trends, major projects in the automotive, household appliances, and metallurgy sectors are planned for 2025. These include: Almaty: Construction of a multi-brand plant by Astana Motors to produce Chinese passenger cars. The facility will have an annual production capacity of 90,000 vehicles. Kostanay Region: Establishment of the KIA Qazaqstan plant, which will produce 70,000 vehicles annually of the Korean brand. Combined, these automotive projects will create 3,700 jobs. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kazakhstan is expected to record high sales of passenger cars by the end of 2024, with approximately 70% of vehicles purchased being domestically produced. Regional Investment Distribution The Turkestan region and Almaty City lead in the number of new investment projects, with 15 and 14 initiatives, respectively. The Kostanay and Karaganda regions also stand out, particularly Karaganda, which is set to receive KZT256 billion ($486 million) for ferrous and non-ferrous metallurgy projects. Overall, Kazakhstan’s manufacturing sector is projected to attract KZT1.2 trillion (nearly $2.3 billion) in investments in 2025, further solidifying the country’s industrial base and economic resilience.

Aktau Plane Crash

Kazakh Blogger, Jailed After Filming at Azerbaijan Airlines Crash Site, is Freed

A Kazakh blogger, who was sentenced to 10 days in prison after using a drone to film wreckage, emergency responders and bodies covered with tarps at the site of the Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crash in Kazakhstan, has been released. Azamat Sarsenbayev was convicted of disobeying a police order not to film and photograph at the Dec. 25 crash in a quickly held, late-night trial in a court in Fort-Shevchenko, more than 100 kilometers from Aktau, the Caspian Sea city where the plane hit the ground and burst into flames, killing 38 of the 67 people on board. He had disputed the charge, arguing that there were procedural violations and that, by law, he should have received a fine instead of a prison sentence. [caption id="attachment_27275" align="aligncenter" width="766"] Footage from the crash site; Azamat Sarsenbayev[/caption] The prosecution of Sarsenbayev partly shows the tension between periodic government efforts to monitor and restrict information, not just in Kazakhstan but also in other Central Asian countries, and the efforts of some bloggers, journalists and others to widen the scope for reporting, often at risk of prosecution and jail time. Regional governments sometimes warn of the threat of provocateurs spreading disinformation, though Sarsenbayev’s actions on the day of the crash appeared to be more in line with reporting the facts of a major international disaster. Drones enhance the reporting ability of some journalists, though there can be accompanying ethical, legal and security concerns about their use. The Embraer 190 plane crash is particularly sensitive because it involves criminal investigators and a delicate international backdrop. Azerbaijan says Russian ground fire hit the plane as it was trying to land at its planned destination in Russia-controlled Chechnya. Russia has apologized without directly confirming the Azerbaijani account. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation and preliminary findings are expected to be released later in January. On social media posts this weekend, Sarsenbayev provided details about his testimony to the judge during his trial, saying he had received calls from international news organizations and other outlets asking for help in covering the crash. He said he reached the scene at around 11 a.m. and deployed his drone about one kilometer away, without having any contact with police, and then approached a cordoned-off area to interview a representative from the Ministry of Emergency Situations who was giving official comments. Sarsenbayev said he told the judge that the media organizations that had contacted him did so “for paid collaboration to capture authentic, exclusive materials for their platforms” and that he had not taken any “explicit” images of crash victims, since their bodies were covered. “If there had been even the slightest hint of a breach of ´ethics´ or ´moral norms´ in my photographs, platforms like Instagram would have automatically blocked my posts, let alone news outlets that published my images. In that case, should we hold everyone accountable for photographing or filming incidents like car accidents or other similar events?” Sarsenbayev said he told the judge. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has promised more...

Aktau Plane Crash

Kazakhstan Crash: In Air and on Ground, Some Did What They Could

When an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan on Dec. 25, Junior Sgt. Nurlan Botagarin reacted quickly. He raced to the wreckage in his car and frantically pushed past debris into the fuselage to help survivors. “The rear part of the plane had overturned, and the people inside were tangled together, unable to get out,” the Kazakh military serviceman said. “At that moment, I broke through the obstructing parts and equipment of the plane and entered inside. I started rescuing the passengers.” Was Botagarin a hero for what he did, possibly risking his own life in the event of an additional explosion and fire while he was scrambling through the wreckage of Flight J2-8243? Some people say yes. He doesn’t think so. Heroes or not, some people showed courage and compassion on the day of the Embraer 190 plane crash that killed 38 people and left 29 survivors in Aktau, Kazakhstan, marking a bright spot in the fog of grief and international intrigue over how the disaster unfolded. Azerbaijan says the plane was accidentally hit by Russian ground fire before its planned landing in Russia-controlled Chechnya; President Vladimir Putin of Russia, which is at war with Ukraine, has apologized without confirming Azerbaijan’s account. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation. The human loss in such a calamity and the alleged responsibility of any perpetrators can overshadow the exemplary conduct of some of those involved in the moment. But here are some of the people who did what they could and will be remembered for it: THE FLIGHT CREW: Capt. Igor Kshnyakin, co-pilot Aleksandr Kalyaninov and flight attendant Hokuma Aliyeva died in the crash. Aviation analysts say the pilots’ struggle to steer the badly damaged aircraft hundreds of kilometers across the Caspian Sea to a landing on flat terrain near Aktau airport was critical to the survival of some of those aboard as well as the likelihood that what exactly happened will be learned in the investigation. Kazakhstan sent the plane’s flight recorders to Brazil, where Embraer aircraft are made, for assessment. The cockpit voice recordings, if they are released, will reveal more to the world about the desperate efforts of the pilots to control the plane and get their passengers to safety. “This particular aircraft is equipped with a recorder that captures two hours of crew and aircraft activity. The investigation will have a nearly complete picture of events,” said Talgat Lastaev, Kazakhstan’s vice transport minister. He was quoted by the Kazinform news agency. At a ceremony in Baku, the three crewmembers who died were awarded with the title "National Hero of Azerbaijan." Two surviving flight attendants, Zulfugar Asadov and Aydan Rahimli, also received honors. “I must specifically acknowledge the female crew members. They themselves were in a state of stress, but look how humanely they acted to calm the passengers and prevent chaos inside the plane,” Azerbaijan’s President Ilham Aliyev said. In a video taken by a passenger, a flight attendant is heard trying to assure people on the plane...

Tokayev

Tokayev on Kazakhstan’s Future: Reforms, Diplomacy, and Global Leadership

In an interview with the Kazakh newspaper Ana Tili, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev discussed pressing domestic and international policy issues shaping Kazakhstan's development. Tokayev highlighted Kazakhstan’s role as a stabilizing force in the international arena during a time of heightened geopolitical tensions. “My main goal is to strengthen the economic potential, sovereignty, and international position of our state. From the very beginning of my presidency, I have taken full responsibility for the decisions I make and their consequences. I cannot and do not want to work any other way,” Tokayev stated. [caption id="attachment_27253" align="aligncenter" width="750"] Image: Akorda[/caption] Reflecting on Qantar - Building a Just Kazakhstan Tokayev addressed the January 2022 unrest - Qantar - describing the upheaval as a consequence of deep-rooted social injustice and political stagnation. “Three years after Qantar, most of our citizens understand that the unprecedented unrest was driven by social inequality, political stagnation, and the self-serving ambitions of the conspirators,” Tokayev said, warning against the spread of misinformation surrounding the events and emphasized that decisive action was necessary to preserve Kazakhstan’s sovereignty. Tokayev reiterated his commitment to creating a fairer Kazakhstan where all citizens are equal before the law. “Justice is not universal equalization. My course on the fair distribution of national wealth does not mean total expropriation or redistribution of property and assets. Such a policy would lead to degradation and chaos. Instead, we aim to eliminate illegal privileges and return unlawfully acquired assets to the state as part of our modernization strategy,” the president said. Relations with Nazarbayev While acknowledging the achievements of Nursultan Nazarbayev, Kazakhstan’s first president, Tokayev also critiqued certain aspects of his leadership. “After resigning but remaining chairman of the Security Council, he often held meetings with key officials, creating confusion and sparking rumors of dual power. This situation led some to claim that the Elbasy Institute should supersede presidential authority,” Tokayev noted. He further revealed that Nazarbayev had considered returning to power in 2021, citing his strong ties to Moscow. Advancing Political Reforms and International Relations Tokayev pointed to the successful implementation of key political reforms, emphasizing greater openness and the activation of public participation. “The concept of ‘Strong President, Influential Parliament, Accountable Government’ best suits Kazakhstan’s political system. However, achieving this fully requires sustained effort,” Tokayev explained, reaffirming his belief that a presidential system remains the optimal governance model for Kazakhstan. Tokayev also elaborated on relations with major powers, including Russia, China, and the United States, underscoring the importance of Kazakhstan’s partnership with Russia, highlighting their shared border and deep economic ties. “President Putin is an experienced statesman who values Kazakhstan’s strategic importance as Central Asia’s largest economy. Our constant communication fosters stability in Eurasia,” Tokayev said. He described Kazakhstan’s cooperation with China as dynamic and multifaceted, elevating their relationship to the level of an "eternal strategic partnership." Tokayev also mentioned his conversation with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, noting Trump’s positive view of Kazakhstan as a strategic partner. Nuclear Power Plans, Middle Powers and Global Stability On nuclear energy, Tokayev...