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Russia’s Strategic Posturing and Putin’s November Visit to Kazakhstan

On November 27, 2024, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s state visit to Kazakhstan underscored the complex geopolitical and security challenges facing the region. Hosted by Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in Astana, the visit took place amidst heightened tensions following Russia’s deployment of its Oreshnik hypersonic missile in Ukraine on November 21. This escalation has reshaped the regional security environment, compelling Kazakhstan to confront potential spillover effects of the Ukraine conflict. Energy remained a central focus during the visit. Kazakhstan remains heavily reliant on oil exports through the pipeline of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which passes through southern Russia. This cooperation benefits Kazakhstan economically but, by tying Kazakhstan further into Russian energy networks, it further complicates Astana's efforts to balance relations with Moscow and Western powers. Following periodic closures of the CPC route on various pretexts, Kazakhstan has resolved to diversify its energy export strategy. It has increased shipments by barge across the Caspian Sea to enter the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline, which terminates on Turkey's coast in the eastern Mediterranean. One should not be surprised if ideas about the old Trans-Caspian Oil Pipeline (TCOP) project are taken out of deep storage for reanimation. The TCOP is an undersea link first discussed in the late 2000s between then-Presidents Nursultan Nazarbayev of Kazakhstan and Nicolas Sarkozy of France. It was shelved at the time because it did not seem geoeconomically necessary. Since then, relations between Russia and Kazakhstan have been complicated by the periodic CPC closures that, although they are given technical justification, appear politically motivated by Moscow to squeeze Astana. Kazakhstan's short-term solution, to increase oil shipments by barge across the Caspian Sea to Baku for insertion into the BTC pipeline, simply cannot attain the volumes necessary to provide a strategic alternative to the CPC. The BTC, at present, would be able to accommodate whatever volumes Kazakhstan would be able to transit to Azerbaijan including via a prospective TCOP, for export to world markets from Ceyhan. One would suppose that bilateral discussions also covered the possible participation of Rosatom in the construction and operation of Kazakhstan’s first nuclear power plant (NPP). However, no mention of this topic was made in public statements. Kazakhstan would prefer to escape the vise-like pressure between Russia and China on this matter. That is why Tokayev has discussed participation by the French firms Orano and EDF with France's President Emmanuel Macron. It has recently been suggested that it would be technically feasible for Kazakhstan to find a group of Western companies capable of executing the project. A Western consortium would have no reason to hesitate to include Kazatomprom in an appropriate role, not excluding capacity-building. The Russia-only and China-only options for the NPP's construction would be less welcoming to such a possibility. Kazakhstan's leadership has become properly sensitive to how energy partnerships are not just economic decisions, but strategic calculations in Central Asia's volatile geopolitical landscape. Indeed, Russia’s use of the Oreshnik missile against Ukraine has created an entirely new security situation. It has raised concerns that...

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Kazakh Deputy PM Zhumangarin: Our Industries Come Before Sanctions

Kazakhstan has clarified its position on sanctions against Russia imposed as a result of Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Primarily, Kazakhstan will not support measures that could negatively impact its economy. Speaking to Russian state media outlet Tass, Deputy Prime Minister Serik Zhumangarin underscored that Kazakhstan will not act as a conduit for circumventing sanctions, as doing so could severely affect its domestic industries. However, he emphasized the nation's commitment to safeguarding its economic interests, particularly in sectors where products might fall under sanction restrictions. “We have explicitly stated that we will not impose restrictions on these goods, as behind them are large labor collectives and enterprises, often located in single-industry towns,” Zhumangarin explained. During Russian President Vladimir Putin's visit to Kazakhstan on November 27-28, he met with Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. The leaders issued a joint statement condemning unilateral sanctions, citing their detrimental effects on global trade, economic cooperation, and sustainable development. They reaffirmed their commitment to principles of open and non-discriminatory international trade. By maintaining a neutral stance on sanctions, Kazakhstan seeks to minimize economic risks while prioritizing the interests of its workforce and industries. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, Kazakhstan’s Ambassador to Russia, Dauren Abayev, noted that Kazakh companies aim to avoid secondary sanctions but will continue fostering close cooperation with Russia. In an August interview with Bloomberg, Zhumangarin reiterated that Kazakhstan would not blindly adhere to sanctions against Russia but would consider international restrictions. He highlighted that while Kazakhstan aims to protect its companies from trade bans, it cannot completely disregard sanctions due to the risk of economic isolation. Furthermore, Kazakhstan's Minister of National Economy, Nurlan Baibazarov, addressed concerns in early November regarding including Kazakh companies on UK sanctions lists. He emphasized that these cases mostly involved transient firms, asserting that Kazakhstan continues to comply with international regulations.

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Kazakhstan Seeks to Stabilize Currency as Tenge Hits Record Low

Kazakhstan’s central bank said Monday that it has spent more than $1 billion in foreign exchange interventions since mid-November in an effort to stabilize the declining currency, which has passed the threshold of 500 tenge to the U.S. dollar and hit record lows. Kazakh officials attribute the drop to the global appreciation of the dollar, a decrease in oil prices, the tumbling Russian ruble and other factors. The National Bank said it expects to spend another $800 million or $900 million in foreign currency sales in December to cover transfers from the National Fund to the state budget. It also noted that the government on Nov. 19 reinstated a requirement that “quasi-government entities” sell 50% of foreign currency revenue as a measure to balance the FX market. “On the domestic FX market, there was an increase in demand for foreign currency from economic agents and a limited supply, partly due to the exchange rate surpassing a psychological threshold,” said the bank, referring to the 500 tenge to the dollar barrier. “Amid the deterioration of several fundamental factors, to prevent destabilizing fluctuations, smooth excessive volatility in the tenge exchange rate, and ensure the supply of foreign currency, the National Bank conducted foreign exchange interventions from November 15 to November 28. The total volume of currency sales for the month amounted to USD 1,047 million,” it said. The tenge fell to a record low of 520 to the dollar on Monday, according to financial news reports. The Bloomberg news agency said the currency went as low as 530 to the dollar on Monday afternoon, amounting to a loss of more than 13% for the year so far. A significant factor affecting the tenge is the fall in the value of the ruble, which took another hit last month after new Western sanctions were imposed on Gazprombank, a Russian state-owned bank that handles energy transactions. Kazakhstan and Russia are major trading partners. On a visit to Kazakhstan last week, Russian President Vladimir Putin highlighted growing trade between the two countries and said: “Payments were and still are a problem, but we now have over 80 percent of payments made in national currencies, which, of course, makes our work in the financial sphere easier.” Russia accounts for almost 20% of Kazakhstan's foreign trade, according to Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. He said last week that Kazakhstan remains a partner of Russia during this “difficult” time, possibly a reference to geopolitical tensions and economic challenges related to Russia’s war in Ukraine. On Monday, Nurlan Baibazarov, Kazakhstan’s deputy prime minister and minister of the national economy, appealed for calm, said finances are stable and that Kazakhstan had weathered similar exchange rate fluctuations at the beginning of the war in early 2022, according to the Orda.kz news site.

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Choking on Smog: Kazakhstan’s Ust-Kamenogorsk forced to suspend in-person schooling amid rising air pollution

The city of Ust-Kamenogorsk in eastern Kazakhstan has once again found itself at the center of an environmental scandal, with polluted air and unfavorable weather conditions causing deteriorating health among its citizens and forcing schoolchildren to move to distance learning. Smog in the city: complaints and consequences In the last week of November, unfavorable weather conditions hit Ust-Kamenogorsk, aggravating the problem of air pollution. Citizens complained of worsening health: headaches, nausea, vomiting, coughing, and fever. Children, who have to breathe polluted air on their way to school, are particularly affected. Parents have repeatedly expressed their outrage, demanding action. In response to the latest complaints, the authorities transitioned some 53,000 of the city's schoolchildren to distance learning on November 28-29. This marked the first time in the city's history that education was suspended due to the environmental situation. Weather forecasters say that the unfavorable weather conditions will continue until at least the end of November. This means that Ust-Kamenogorsk residents will continue to suffer from smog, and children will probably remain in distance learning. Environmentalists weigh in Azamat Tauyrbekov, head of the Department of Ecology for the East Kazakh region, said that environmental agencies are working hard these days, conducting air measurements throughout the city. However, inspections of enterprises are complicated by bureaucratic procedures: access to production facilities requires an official application with evidence of violation. On November 28, joint inspections took place at two large enterprises in the region: Kazzinc and an oil extraction plant. So far, the results of the inspections have not been published, but activists and citizens continue to insist on the need for more transparent controls over emissions. Citizen frustration boils over Residents of Ust-Kamenogorsk are discussing the air pollution situation on social networks, sharing their complaints and worries. In comments on the Instagram platform one can see messages such as: - "It is impossible to breathe, even at home." - "My head hurts, I feel weak, feverish, have a sore throat, watery eyes, stuffy nose." - "How is it possible to poison almost 400,000 people? We pay taxes to be destroyed?" - "There is a taste of metal and acid in my mouth." Despite the fact that the problem has become a reason for creating memes and jokes about smog, reactions such as these reveal the deep dissatisfaction and anxiety of the city's residents. People are starting to openly demand that authorities strengthen control over emissions from enterprises and take real measures to improve the environmental situation in the city.

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Putin in Kazakhstan: Language Diplomacy, Treaty Fine Print and a Hack

Geopolitical tensions, finding common ground on oil and gas transportation and deliveries and Russia’s hopes of beating out rivals to build Kazakhstan´s first nuclear power plant. These were some of the big ticket themes framing Russian President Vladimir Putin’s trip to the Central Asian nation last week. The Times of Central Asia looks at a few other things that happened on the sidelines: A Tale of Two Languages “Kazakhstan is practically a Russian-speaking country, which you have probably had a chance to see for yourself.” Putin was extolling close ties between Russia and Kazakhstan when he made that remark to journalists in Astana last week. But the comment also drew attention to how Kazakhstan uses the Kazakh language to express national identity and independence from a past controlled by Moscow. In November 2023, during an earlier visit by Putin to Astana, Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev spoke in Kazakh rather than Russian, causing senior Russian officials to reach somewhat hurriedly for their earpieces to get the translation. While Russia and Kazakhstan share a long land border and are bound by deep economic and security ties, Tokayev’s semantic switch seemed to be a reminder that Kazakhstan, a former Soviet republic and Russian imperial territory, would follow its own path. Last week, both leaders went out of their way to emphasize linguistic harmony, even if tensions sometimes emerge over Kazakhstan’s increasing promotion of the Kazakh language. There is a significant ethnic Russian minority living in Kazakhstan. “One third of schoolchildren in our country are educated in Russian. We attach special importance to this issue. It is for this reason that I proposed the creation of the International Russian Language Organization,” Tokayev said. Putin thanked Tokayev for backing the use of the Russian language, “widely and freely,” in Kazakhstan. He said there are plans to open three Russian language schools in Kazakhstan, with Russian government support. Some social media posts claimed there was a diplomatic dustup between the two leaders, showing video of Putin´s “Russian-speaking country” remark followed by Tokayev speaking in Kazakh in an apparent pushback. However, the video appears to be spliced from different events. Putin is shown standing; Tokayev is seated. Furthermore, the Kremlin transcript shows that Putin made the remark at a solo news conference. That’s What It Says, But… The treaty of a regional security group that includes Russia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Belarus and Armenia says members must provide military and other help to any member subjected to “aggression by any state or group of states.” Does that mean members of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, or CSTO, should get behind Russia in its war against Western-backed Ukraine? After all, Putin says Russia is a target of Ukrainian and Western aggression, even if some dispute the assertion because he launched a full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022. Putin was asked the question on Thursday after a state visit to Kazakhstan and a meeting of the regional security group in Astana. Each security group member “stands ready to act in accordance with...

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CSTO Leaders Tackle Regional Security, Nuclear Energy, and Afghan Border Concerns

Astana hosted a summit of the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO), gathering heads of member states to discuss pressing regional and international issues. Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev chaired the session of the CSTO Collective Security Council. Attendees included Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov, Russian President Vladimir Putin, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon, and CSTO Secretary-General Imangali Tasmagambetov. In his address, President Tokayev highlighted the CSTO’s pivotal role in maintaining peace and stability in Eurasia. “Amid modern challenges, the CSTO consistently demonstrates its relevance as a guarantor of security for all member states. Our coordinated actions, mutual trust, and support strengthen our collective ability to tackle complex and large-scale tasks. The CSTO is not merely a military partnership but a unique mechanism that unites our efforts and resources to safeguard sovereignty and territorial integrity,” Tokayev stated. CSTO’s Response to Kazakhstan’s 2022 Crisis Tokayev reflected on the CSTO’s rapid deployment in January 2022, when Kazakhstan faced unrest over rising gas prices, which escalated into violent confrontations. Within 24 hours, CSTO forces were deployed to stabilize the situation. Russian troops secured strategic facilities in Almaty, while Kazakh forces restored order, marking a critical demonstration of the organization’s operational capability. Putin Unveils "Oreshnik" Missile System Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed ongoing tensions with Ukraine, signaling the potential use of the Oreshnik medium-range ballistic missile system in response to Western-supplied long-range missiles targeting Russian territory. According to Putin, the Oreshnik has the destructive power of nuclear weapons, and can penetrate heavily fortified targets. “The temperature of the striking elements reaches 4,000 degrees. At the explosion's epicenter, everything is reduced to elementary particles, essentially turning to dust,” he explained. Putin also announced that serial production of the missile had begun, with several units ready for deployment. Kazakhstan’s Nuclear Power Project Discussions also turned to Kazakhstan’s plans to build its first nuclear power plant. Tokayev has proposed an international consortium, and Putin expressed Russia's willingness to participate through Rosatom, emphasizing its extensive experience with international collaborations. “Rosatom is ready to work with specialists from other countries,” Putin remarked, leaving the door open for multilateral cooperation. Armenia’s Absence and CSTO’s Future Noticeably absent from the summit was Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, following Armenia’s decision to freeze its CSTO membership earlier this year. Yerevan cited concerns over its sovereignty as the reason for the suspension. Secretary-General Tasmagambetov remained optimistic about Armenia’s return, calling it a valued ally. “This is the decision of an independent and sovereign state, which no country or organization can influence. Nevertheless, we view Armenia as an ally and hope it will return to full participation in the CSTO in the foreseeable future,” Tasmagambetov stated. Key Summit Outcomes During the session, the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) also reflected on Kazakhstan's presidency in 2024, highlighting significant milestones achieved under its leadership. President Tokayev reported that approximately 60 activities were conducted within the CSTO's statutory areas of cooperation during Kazakhstan’s presidency. This included advancing coordinated approaches to key international issues in collaboration with member...