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Opinion: Kazakhstan’s Tax Reform May Come as an Unpleasant Surprise

Kazakhstan's tax reform has reached a critical juncture. This week, the Mazhilis, the lower house of parliament, approved the draft of the new Tax Code in its first reading. The sweeping document, comprising 822 articles, proposes the repeal of the current Tax Code along with the accompanying implementation law. While the reform fulfils directives issued by President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev in his 2022 and 2023 state-of-the-nation addresses, skepticism abounds. Experts and business leaders have voiced concerns, and lawmakers themselves have offered mixed reviews, with many adopting a critical stance. Concerns About Scope and Timing Though tax professionals broadly agree on the need for tax reform, some warn that the current version may be the most stringent in over two decades. Critics argue that without addressing structural inefficiencies in government spending, raising taxes alone will not yield the desired outcomes. They emphasize the need for a balanced approach that supports both fiscal sustainability and economic resilience. Adding to the unease is the timing. Kazakhstan, like many economies, faces mounting global pressures. The threat of a financial downturn, exacerbated by falling energy prices and international tariff disputes, has prompted urgent consultations at the highest level. Tokayev recently convened a closed-door meeting with the prime minister and the head of the National Bank, instructing them to finalize a government action plan to mitigate potential economic fallout and maintain investment flows. A Mixed Bag of Reactions Some analysts acknowledge that the existing Tax Code, adopted in 2008, is outdated. They argue that reforms are essential to address digitalization, evolving business models, and new global challenges. Calls for improved tax administration, especially the simplification of procedures and adoption of risk-based oversight, aim to ease pressure on law-abiding businesses while better targeting the informal sector. The draft law also seeks to limit inefficient tax exemptions and make incentives more focused and transparent. These changes are framed as part of Tokayev's broader economic transformation agenda, which prioritizes fair taxation, industrial processing, and innovation. Nonetheless, many entrepreneurs remain uneasy. Economic instability, lingering post-pandemic effects, geopolitical risks, and sanctions-related supply disruptions have left businesses vulnerable. Critics worry that introducing a more demanding tax regime now may fuel uncertainty and discourage investment. Additional concerns center on governance. Persistent issues of corruption, selective enforcement, and administrative overreach have eroded public trust. Without parallel reforms in public administration, experts argue that changes to tax policy alone may fall short. Divided Political Reception The draft Tax Code’s passage through its first reading does not guarantee smooth sailing. Even the ruling Amanat party, while supporting the bill, has voiced reservations. Its members have called for safeguarding small and medium-sized enterprises and enhancing investment incentives. The opposition Ak Zhol party has been the most vocal critic. Its leader, Azat Peruashev, characterized the proposal as a fiscal crackdown rather than genuine reform. The faction demands greater transparency, public consultations, and a reconsideration of proposed VAT hikes and lower registration thresholds. Meanwhile, the pro-business Respublica party supports the reform in principle but insists on greater simplification in business-tax...

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Ruling Party Urges Government to Revise VAT Reform Plans

Kazakhstan's ruling Amanat party has called on the government to revise its proposed tax reforms, particularly those affecting the value-added tax (VAT). The party is pushing to double the planned threshold for mandatory VAT registration, warning that the current proposal could harm small and medium-sized businesses. Under current law, businesses must register for VAT if their annual turnover exceeds 78.6 million KZT (approximately $152,000). The government's draft reform proposes to lower this threshold to 15 million KZT (around $29,000). It also includes raising the basic VAT rate from 12% to 16%, introducing a zero rate for agricultural producers, a 10% rate for selected industries, and gradually applying VAT to the healthcare sector. The reform also proposes eliminating 128 tax exemptions worth more than 1.3 trillion KZT. A progressive personal income tax is also under discussion. With a base rate of 10%, the government suggests introducing a 15% rate for annual incomes exceeding 8,500 MRP (monthly calculation index), equivalent to over 33.5 million KZT. For 2025, the MRP in Kazakhstan is set at 3,900 KZT (about $7.50). The draft Tax Code is scheduled for a first reading in the Mazhilis, Kazakhstan’s lower house of parliament, on Wednesday, April 9. On the eve of the session, government officials presented the proposals at an expanded meeting with Amanat’s parliamentary faction, which holds 62 of the 98 Mazhilis seats. Amanat deputies voiced strong opposition to the proposed reduction in the VAT registration threshold, warning it could drive businesses into the informal economy. Instead, they urged the government to raise the threshold to at least 30 million KZT (approximately $58,000). The party also proposed exempting 19 socially important food items from VAT to ease the financial burden on citizens. These items include flour, bread, pasta, eggs, buckwheat, rice, sugar, vegetable oils, various meats (such as beef and chicken), dairy products (milk, kefir, cottage cheese), staple vegetables (potatoes, carrots, onions, cabbage), and salt. “Particular concern was expressed over proposals to apply VAT to healthcare and to tax financial services,” the party said in a statement. “Such measures would drive up prices and impose additional costs on the population, which is unacceptable under current conditions”. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the government initially considered raising the VAT rate to 20%, but President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev rejected that proposal in favor of a more moderate increase.

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Opinion – Storm Clouds Over Kazakhstan: Oil Slump and Global Risks Threaten Economic Stability

The persistent decline in Brent crude prices is the latest sign of a looming 'perfect storm' for Kazakhstan’s economy, the largest in Central Asia. With the mining sector comprising nearly half of its GDP and oil as a cornerstone resource, the nation’s economic stability is facing a cascade of potential shocks. Oil Prices and Budget Vulnerability Kazakhstan is grappling with significant economic headwinds amid forecasts of a global recession and declining energy prices. In April 2025, OPEC+, including Kazakhstan, unexpectedly agreed to raise oil production by 411,000 barrels per day, pushing prices below $65 per barrel. Given the country's reliance on hydrocarbon exports, such price drops jeopardize state revenues. Analysts say Kazakhstan needs oil prices to remain above $42.30 per barrel in 2025 to maintain fiscal stability. However, the threat extends beyond oil. As energy journalist Oleg Chervinsky noted on his Telegram channel, global commodity prices across the board are falling, a signal that recession is imminent. “The bad news for Kazakhstan is that prices are dropping not only for oil but for all raw materials,” Chervinsky wrote. “JP Morgan estimates the global recession probability at 60%. Even though oil and gas are exempt from Donald Trump’s new tariffs, the broader protectionist policies could fuel inflation, curb growth, and escalate trade tensions”. Trump's Trade War and Kazakhstan President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs are designed to limit low-cost imports and incentivize domestic production. Kazakhstan has been hit with a 27% tariff, the highest among the Central Asian nations. Its strategic location within China’s Belt and Road Initiative positions it as a potential re-export hub, prompting higher trade scrutiny. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Trade and Integration has downplayed the immediate economic impact, noting that U.S.-bound exports account for less than 5% of total trade, and the country still holds a $1 billion trade surplus with the U.S. While the direct fallout may be limited, the broader implications of a global trade war could severely strain Kazakhstan’s economy. If a global recession takes hold, demand for Kazakhstan’s key exports, oil, uranium, and metals, will drop, dragging prices down further. Currency Pressures and Investor Retreat With shrinking export revenues, the tenge faces devaluation, leading to inflation, rising import costs, and weakened consumer purchasing power. In addition, recessions typically dampen foreign direct investment, especially in emerging markets like Kazakhstan, where perceived risk grows amid uncertainty. The China Factor The U.S.-China trade conflict is another critical variable. Trump’s strategy aims to undercut Beijing’s economic strength, but for Kazakhstan, China is its largest trading partner, representing over 15% of foreign trade. A slowdown in China would reduce demand for Kazakhstani raw materials and transit services. Such a downturn could also jeopardize President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s ambition to establish Kazakhstan as a vital trade corridor between China and Europe. While the Belt and Road Initiative is unlikely to collapse, reduced cargo flows would strain state revenues. China is also the primary buyer of Kazakhstan’s copper, aluminum, and ferroalloys. Any industrial slowdown there immediately impacts Kazakhstan's export volumes. Converging Risks Taken...

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A New Great Game: Multipolar Competition in Central Asia

At a time when the European Union, China, and Turkey are seeking to strengthen their presence in Central Asia, the United States administration is consumed with bilaterally implementing a seismic shift in its trade policy with the entire world. Although this region of post-Soviet space is widely seen as a new front of rivalry between Washington and Beijing, in many aspects, American influence in Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan lags far behind that of other actors. Culture (soft power) has always played an important role in the foreign policy of every great power. The Soviet Union was no exception. As a result, even today, Russian, rather than English, is still the lingua franca in Central Asia, although Moscow, following its invasion of Ukraine, has had a hard time preserving remnants of its former dominance in the region. Russian cinema, however, maintains a notable presence in most, if not all, Central Asian states. While Hollywood movies have a strong global presence, Russian films in Central Asia often act as a link between Western content and the region's cultural traditions. Millions of Central Asian migrants working in Russia also serve as a bridge between their nations and the Russian Federation, facilitating cultural exchange, economic ties, and the spread of the Russian language. However, Russia’s fiasco in Ukraine has created space for the EU to assert its influence in a region that has traditionally been in Moscow’s geopolitical orbit. Nevertheless, although Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, are Tajikistan are members of the Russian-led Collective Security Treaty Organization, they have remained neutral in the Ukraine conflict. For Central Asian nations, the EU serves as a counterweight they can use to balance their relations with Moscow. The EU, however, faces strong economic competition from China. With a trade volume of $94.8 billion with Central Asian states, Beijing is positioning itself as the major economic power operating in the five regional nations. Although the European Union’s influence in Central Asia is expected to continue to grow in the coming years, if investment trends from recent years persist, the balance in the region will likely tilt towards China, which will increase its presence and influence at the expense of Russia. But where does the United States fit into this dynamic? Even though the U.S. is the largest economy in the world, with which almost everyone wants to engage, American bilateral trade with the region has never been particularly strong, with the exception of Kazakhstan. Interestingly enough, it is Astana that is expected to suffer the most among Central Asian actors due to U.S. President Donald Trump’s decision to impose tariffs – 27% on Kazakhstan compared to 10% on all other nations in the region. Exceptions may be made for Kazakhstan’s critical minerals, however, which are now the third largest in the world based on a recent discovery, with reports suggesting that some goods, including “certain minerals that are not available in the United States,” as well as energy, will not be subject to the tariffs. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry...

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Future Nostalgia: Alexander Ugay’s Parisian Debut at NIKA Projects

Have you ever had that feeling of “Future Nostalgia” - as Dua Lipa would put it – when looking at old sci-fi movies that were imagining a future that never came to pass? The fact that this future didn’t materialise might be as might be seen as both a blessing and a disappointment, as artist Alexander Ugay has us reflecting upon with his Parisian debut. Born in Kazakhstan to a Korean family deported under Stalin’s regime, Ugay’s work is heavily inspired by his own experience and is layered with echoes of ancestral trauma, the faded promise of Soviet modernity, and the flickering ghost of a future once imagined but that never fully came to fruition. A child of engineers and inventors, Ugay grew up among circuits and cyanotypes, and in his art, he uses materials such as 8mm film and VHS tape. With this vintage spirit, his body of work looks at the past to speak of the present, and posits a critique of the techno-utopianism of the Soviet 1970s, as much as today's AI-driven image culture. In his new show, More than Dreams, Less than Things, at NIKA Projects in Paris, Ugay looks at the origins of image-making both literally and philosophically. Inspired by Ibn al-Haytham’s Book of Optics, the artist reanimates the ancient camera obscura, letting light seep through the book’s pages to birth abstract images: faded records of a presence. The exhibition, which opened on March 16, explores the tension between technological progress and the way this can be disrupted by the power of imagination and poetry - eminently human things - by looking at the intersection of photography, technology, and diasporic memory. His show, curated by Elena Sorokina, situates an emergence of Central Asian narratives coming more and more to the forefront of the international art and cultural world of Europe. Through the lens of Soviet futurism, Ugay explores a broader vision of seeing in an age where so much remains invisible. TCA spoke with Ugay about the way he approaches his art, his sources, and how he conceives images not as finished objects but as processes — mutable, unstable, and deeply human. [caption id="attachment_30561" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] 03_Alexander Ugay, More than Dreams, Less than Things. Courtesy of the artist[/caption] TCA: Where does the title for your new show, More than Dreams, Less than Things, come from? The title came about after reading Henri Bergson's book, Matter and Memory. I really liked the idea that an image is not only the relationship between absence and presence but also intensity and density. This idea made up for my dissatisfaction with the notion of resolution in photography. The title, in this case, is not just a definition of the image but a key to understanding its substantive basis. The image is the surface of the ‘grand contract’ between necessity and freedom, memory and matter, entropy and being. TCA: In More than Dreams, Less than Things, you use the camera obscura technique. How does this historical process relate to your...

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Balancing Secularism and Belief: Central Asia Grapples with Rising Islamization

Although the Central Asian republics officially uphold secular governance, they may be experiencing a subtle, creeping Islamization beneath the surface. While state-controlled media across the region maintain that religious movements are well-managed, occasional incidents suggest a growing divergence between official narratives and societal realities. One such incident recently drew attention in Kazakhstan, where a photo circulated online showing girls in burkas holding a Kazakh flag inscribed with Arabic script. The image prompted Mazhilis Deputy Yermurat Bapi to call on the government to intensify efforts against radical religious movements. “Our attention was drawn to the fact that the inscriptions on the flag in Arabic script were produced with a special printing tool. This is not just hooliganism or inappropriate behavior. It is a direct challenge to our society, our statehood, and our national traditions,” Bapi said. Citing "national interests, traditions, and culture," Bapi has previously campaigned for a ban on religious clothing, specifically hijabs and niqabs, in public places. On social media, proponents of a Central Asian caliphate have railed against national traditions, denouncing Nauryz, criticizing local costumes and instruments, and rejecting pre-Islamic cultural heritage. Since President Shavkat Mirziyoyev took office in 2016, Uzbekistan has cautiously liberalized its religious policy. However, strict state control persists. Imams must be approved by the Muftiate, unregistered religious groups are banned, and mosque inspections are routine. The state endorses the Hanafi madhhab as the “national form of Islam” and recognizes Naqshbandi Sufism as part of its cultural heritage. Salafi and extremist movements are actively suppressed, and while former “black lists” of suspected extremists are being revised, some religious prisoners are being rehabilitated. Islamic education is expanding through madrasas, Islamic colleges, and the Islamic Academy of Uzbekistan. Tajikistan has pursued an aggressive campaign to secularize public life. The Islamic Renaissance Party, once a legal political force, was banned in 2015 as “extremist.” The state restricts youth access to mosques, prohibits the hijab in schools and public offices, and has shuttered over 1,500 mosques since 2011. As previously reported by TCA, a 2024 law bans “foreign clothing” - widely interpreted as targeting Arabic attire, including the hijab - to promote national dress. Islam is framed as a cultural element within state ideology, with the Committee on Religious Affairs closely monitoring clerics. Kyrgyzstan is widely viewed as the most religiously open state in the region. Post-Soviet liberalization allowed Islam to grow organically, with little initial oversight. Today, numerous Islamic groups, including Salafis, operate within the country. Rural communities and youth increasingly identify with Islam. Private madrasas and Islamic NGOs are flourishing, and hijab adoption is on the rise. Though the government has begun tightening oversight following incidents of radicalization, Salafi influence continues to grow. By 2023, there were 130 Islamic educational institutions, including 34 madrasas for girls. In Turkmenistan, one of the world’s most closed societies, religious freedom is strictly curtailed. All religious activity is monitored, and Islamic institutions are intertwined with nationalist and presidential cult rhetoric, often referred to as “Turkmen Islam.” Unregulated Islamic movements and foreign...