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Critical Minerals

Opinion: Could Vanadium Be Kazakhstan’s Next Breakout Critical Metals Story?

Vanadium is viewed as a critical mineral by the United States, the European Union, Russia, China and many other countries because of its importance to energy storage and industrial alloys. At the Astana Metals & Metallurgy (AMM) Congress, Ferro-Alloy Resources CEO Nicholas Bridgen discussed the company’s assets, strategy, and valuation with The Times of Central Asia, noting that the company appears undervalued amid supply chain disruptions and the rising strategic importance of vanadium. The discussion highlighted vanadium’s emerging demand-supply imbalance and efforts to better align market perception with fundamentals. Of the critical metals that will define the next half-century, vanadium has perhaps the strongest claim to indispensability: it hardens the steel in our infrastructure and defense systems, and it stores the energy that our grids will increasingly depend on. Yet the market has consistently failed to price that future in, and nowhere is that mispricing more visible than in the vanadium deposits of Kazakhstan. In 1941, with the Second World War raging, Soviet geologists fanned out across Central Asia looking for strategic minerals. Around 180 kilometers east of Almaty, in the foothills of the Tian Shan mountain range along the borders with China and Kyrgyzstan, they found tungsten at the Boguty deposit. At roughly the same time, they were delineating what would become the Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty tungsten deposits. The geology was well understood, and the resource was real, but nothing happened for the better part of 75 years. The deposits sat idle not because tungsten was unimportant, but because there was no pressing reason for, first, the Soviet Union or later the West to develop them. That changed when the scale of China's dominance in critical metals became impossible to ignore. By the early 2020s, China was producing over 75% of the world’s tungsten output, alongside similarly dominant shares of rare earth elements and a range of other strategic minerals. This concentration of supply was not accidental. It was the product of decades of deliberate industrial policy, patient capital, and a willingness to operate at low margins long enough to drive out competitors. The Tungsten Lesson Chinese mining company Jiaxin International Resources Investment Ltd. moved in 2014 to acquire Boguty for an undisclosed sum, almost certainly a modest one. The deal further consolidated China’s grip on global tungsten supply. Jiaxin then spent approximately $300 million developing the deposit and listed on the Hong Kong Stock Exchange at a valuation in excess of $600 million. The investment thesis seemed straightforward enough at the time. In 2025, it looked positively prescient: China imposed export controls on tungsten, and key prices outside China more than doubled. According to the Financial Times, Jiaxin’s market capitalization stands at close to HKD 22.3 billion, equal to $2.84 billion, approximately 9.5 times the stated development expenditure. [caption id="attachment_52262" align="aligncenter" width="1432"] Image: Kaz Resources[/caption] Meanwhile, Skyline Builders Group Holding Ltd. and Cove Kaz Capital Group LLC (“Cove Kaz”) have moved to acquire the two other formerly dormant tungsten deposits in Kazakhstan, Northern Katpar and Upper Kairakty. On this...

Games of the Future

From Controllers to Courts: Kazakhstan Prepares for Games of the Future

When the basketball begins in Astana on July 29, two players from each team will sit at screens and chase 19 digital points. After that stage, they will take the score onto a real 2-on-2 court. The physical game continues until one side reaches 39, meaning a lead earned with a controller can disappear beneath the rim. That switch gives the Games of the Future its human appeal. The format asks athletes to handle screen timing, then contact and fatigue on the court. It also creates an unfamiliar training problem. A gifted basketball player can fall behind before reaching the court, while a strong gamer still has to run, defend, and rebound. Before June’s Astana qualifier, Uzbek under-23 basketball player Tolegen Ismatov explained what first drew him to the faster 3x3 game. “I was immediately drawn to the speed, the emotions, and the responsibility for every moment on the court,” he said. The main Games will run from July 29 to August 9. More than 800 competitors from over 50 nationalities are due to contest eight disciplines for a prize pool which stands above $4 million. The events will use four Astana venues, including the Barys Arena and the Qazaqstan Athletics Sports Complex. For local spectators, the event is priced more like a day out than a global championship. Standard tickets start at 4,000 tenge (about $8.50), while phygital fighting starts at 7,500 tenge. Admission to the dance competition at the 12,000-seat Barys Arena is free. The Score Carries Onto the Court Basketball opens the program on July 29. Four players make up each team, with two competing at a time. The digital stage ends when one side reaches 19 points. Play then moves to the court, where the first team to reach a combined score of 39 wins. A tie leads to a free-throw shootout. Football follows the same basic logic. Teams play two short halves in the UFL video game, then move to a five-a-side pitch. In the shooter event, clubs begin with Counter-Strike 2, then move into laser tag, where players must communicate while running through a physical space. The field mixes famous club badges with esports names. Boca Juniors and Valencia Basket are in the basketball draw. Peñarol and Los Troncos FC will meet in football. Dota 2 and PUBG each carry a $1 million prize pool, the largest shares of the total. Kazakh teams also appear throughout the draw, giving home crowds someone to follow in several arenas. GTB KZ opens its basketball campaign against qualifier champion Zagrebacki malisani NITUI. Team KZ begins the shooter competition against Mirage Team. Astana’s PBC Astana is also in the basketball field, while ACF x Allur represents the host country in football. Uzbekistan has a visible place in the regional cast. Dancer Sogdiana Abdukhalikova opens against Lala Gevorgyan on August 6. Her performance will be measured by automated scoring for timing and movement accuracy, rather than a panel holding up cards. A Smaller Event Than First Promised The Astana...

Central Asia + Japan

Patient Capital, Fast Deals: Japan and South Korea Take Different Paths into Central Asia

Japan and South Korea have reached the same strategic conclusion: Central Asia matters to their economic security. Yet they are pursuing that goal through markedly different playbooks. In December 2025, Tokyo hosted the first leaders' summit of the "Central Asia plus Japan" Dialogue, 21 years after the format was launched. All five Central Asian presidents attended. Japan set a target of three trillion yen in business projects across the region over five years - roughly $19 billion at the time - while placing critical-mineral supply chains among the summit's priority areas. The bilateral announcements were equally significant. Uzbekistan presented a proposed project portfolio worth more than $12 billion and called for a joint investment platform to advance it. Kazakhstan and Japan announced a package of public- and private-sector agreements worth $3.7 billion. These included a long-term uranium contract and an offtake agreement under which Kazakhstan's Eurasian Resources Group would supply gallium to Mitsubishi Corporation RTM Japan. The timing was no accident. By May 2026, Chinese shipments to Japan of dysprosium and terbium remained close to zero, while exports of finished rare earth magnets to Japan fell 35% from the previous month. These materials are essential to high-performance magnets. For Tokyo, diversifying critical mineral supply is no longer a distant policy objective; it is an immediate industrial requirement. South Korea has been moving toward the same destination by a different route. During then-President Yoon Suk Yeol's state visit to Kazakhstan in 2024, the two countries signed a critical minerals memorandum allowing Korean companies to participate in the exploration and development of lithium, chromium, uranium, and rare earths. Seoul is now preparing to host the first Korea-Central Asia summit on September 16-17, 2026, elevating years of bilateral and multilateral engagement to the leaders' level. [caption id="attachment_52351" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: Japan Cabinet Public Affairs Office[/caption] Why Central Asia Counts Both Japan and South Korea are resource-poor manufacturing powers whose leading industries depend on secure supplies of imported minerals. South Korea imports more than 95% of the critical minerals it consumes. Japan received its own warning in 2010, when Chinese rare earth shipments were disrupted during a territorial dispute, and the pressure has returned in a sharper form in 2026. Central Asia cannot replace China in the short term, but it offers Tokyo and Seoul a credible route toward diversification. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan combine substantial mineral potential with governments eager to attract investment, technology, and new export markets. Kazakhstan is already a major producer of uranium and chromium, and has significant copper, titanium, and rare earth prospects. In April 2025, Kazakhstan announced the possible discovery of a rare earth deposit containing more than 20 million metric tons of resources. If further exploration confirms that estimate, the country could possess one of the world's largest rare earth resource bases. However, the distinction between a resource estimate and a usable supply chain is crucial. A discovery is not a producing mine, and a mine is not a processing industry. Exploration, environmental approvals, infrastructure, separation, refining, and...

Digital Infrastructure

Kazakhstan and China Sign Deals Worth Over $15 Billion During Tokayev’s Shanghai Visit

Kazakhstan and China signed more than 70 commercial agreements worth over $15 billion during President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev’s working visit to Shanghai on July 16. The package covers artificial intelligence, digital infrastructure, transport, finance, agriculture, vehicle production, and other high-technology industries. The documents were exchanged after a roundtable with Chinese executives. Akorda did not publish a full project-by-project valuation, and the package includes both agreements and memoranda. The headline figure represents the announced value of the documents rather than money already invested or spent. AI and Industrial Projects Among the main documents was a strategic partnership agreement between Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Artificial Intelligence and Digital Development and Huawei Technologies. The Samruk-Kazyna sovereign wealth fund signed a separate agreement to acquire Huawei technology and equipment. Samruk-Kazyna, Freedom Holding, the Astana city administration, and Geely Auto Group also signed a memorandum on electric-vehicle infrastructure and the use of artificial intelligence in Kazakhstan’s automotive industry. Kazakhtelecom and China’s HV & Submarine Hengtong Group agreed on the basic principles for developing the Data Center Valley project in Ekibastuz. The planned one-gigawatt cluster is intended to combine data centers, cloud services, supercomputing facilities, AI laboratories, research institutions, training programs, and technology startups. Further agreements covered robotics and research. Qazbot Technologies signed a strategic cooperation agreement with Agibot PTE, while the Almaty city administration, NERO Group, and UBTECH Robotics agreed to develop artificial intelligence and robotics in the city. Qazaq AI Research University and the Shanghai Innovation Institute signed a cooperation memorandum. The industrial package includes an agreement between Allur Group and Li Auto to produce Li Auto vehicles in Kazakhstan. Astana Group and Chery Holding signed a technology licensing agreement for OMODA and JAECOO production at the Astana Motors Manufacturing Kazakhstan plant. Qarmet, the Development Bank of Kazakhstan, and a Chinese engineering company also agreed to cooperate on new coke oven batteries and a gas purification system. Transport and Logistics An investment agreement was signed for the first phase of a multifunctional terminal at the Port of Kuryk. Another document covers cooperation on two logistics parks at Khorgos-Eastern Gate, while Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Industry and Construction and NUCTECH agreed to work on inspection systems at border checkpoints and expand local production. Tokayev said around 85% of rail freight between China and Europe passes through Kazakhstan and that the country has invested more than $35 billion in transport and logistics infrastructure over the past 15 years. He also promoted the Smart Cargo platform, which is designed to combine customs, logistics, and commercial services in one digital system. The president also invited Chinese companies to invest in the extraction and deeper processing of critical minerals, agricultural technology, and the development of Alatau City. The government wants the new city to become a regional center for digital finance, asset tokenization, artificial intelligence, and advanced telecommunications. Tokayev said bilateral trade reached a record $49 billion in 2025, cumulative Chinese investment in Kazakhstan exceeded $30 billion, and more than 8,500 companies with Chinese participation operate in the country. Existing joint projects...

Kashagan

Kashagan Operator Faces July 20 Deadline to Pay $4.9 Billion Environmental Fine

Kazakhstan says it will begin compulsory collection proceedings against the North Caspian Operating Company (NCOC), operator of the giant Kashagan oil field, if it does not pay a 2.3 trillion tenge ($4.9 billion) environmental fine by July 20. The deadline follows a domestic court ruling that has entered into legal force, even as the project’s foreign shareholders pursue international arbitration over the penalty. Deputy Minister of Justice Daniyel Vaisov announced the deadline on July 14. “Foreign companies currently have an obligation to pay 2.3 trillion tenge. If they fail to pay the fine by July 20, the Republic of Kazakhstan will proceed in accordance with the law, including enforcement proceedings and compulsory collection measures,” Vaisov said. However, in a statement to The Times of Central Asia, NCOC said a tribunal in parallel UNCITRAL arbitration proceedings had issued a restraining order prohibiting Kazakhstan from taking any measures to enforce the fine while the arbitration is pending. The company said the UNCITRAL proceedings had been initiated by Kazakhstan itself. NCOC and the contracting companies said they reject both the fine and the allegations underlying it and are contesting them through the UNCITRAL proceedings as well as the ICSID arbitration. They called on Kazakhstan to comply with the restraining order. The dispute stems from a 2022 inspection of Kashagan’s onshore processing facilities in the Atyrau Region. Environmental authorities said the operator had exceeded its permitted sulfur-storage limits, and the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources imposed the 2.3 trillion-tenge penalty in 2023. NCOC said it had obtained and maintained all required permits and had always conducted its sulfur management in full compliance with the law. The case has passed through several rounds of domestic litigation. On August 1, 2025, the Administrative Chamber of Astana City Court annulled the original penalty order because of procedural violations, without ruling on the substance of the environmental allegations. The ministry subsequently corrected the procedural defects and reissued the penalty later that month. An Astana court left the reissued fine in force on April 8, 2026. Vaisov said on July 14 that the ruling had entered into legal force. NCOC brings together Kazakhstan’s state-owned KazMunayGas and six foreign partners: Shell, TotalEnergies, Eni, ExxonMobil, CNPC, and Inpex. NCOC and the project’s six foreign shareholders have initiated treaty arbitration through the Washington-based International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), arguing that Kazakhstan’s conduct breaches protections owed to investors. Vaisov said the parties were finalizing the composition of the ICSID tribunal, which is expected to be completed by the end of July. “We believe the Republic’s actions regarding the alleged sulfur-storage permit violations are inconsistent with its obligations under international investment treaties, including its obligation to provide fair and equitable treatment to investors,” NCOC said. The Kazakh authorities maintain that the sulfur was stored in breach of environmental rules. The mechanics of compulsory collection may prove difficult. Nurlan Zhumagulov, executive director of the Energy Monitor Foundation, said that NCOC acts as the project’s operator while each shareholder markets its own...

Middle Corridor

Daines’s Tour Signals an Emerging U.S. Caspian Corridor Strategy

Senator Steve Daines’s July 7–9 visit to Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan brought three bilateral relationships into a single, compressed Caspian itinerary. In Baku, he met President Ilham Aliyev and senior economic and foreign-policy officials; in Astana, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev and representatives of government and business; and in Ashgabat, President Serdar Berdimuhamedov, Foreign Minister Rashid Meredov, and Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov. Although official accounts treated each stop separately, the sequence suggests a regional pattern whose significance exceeds any single announcement. Daines had already supplied the clearest public articulation of the governing logic in his June 11 speech to the Caspian Policy Center’s Trans-Caspian Forum. There he joined Central Asia and the South Caucasus in a discussion about westward connectivity, investment, and supply-chain diversification. Daines identified critical minerals, energy, telecommunications, and physical and digital infrastructure as fields for public and private investment, while calling for TRIPP, a Caspian gas interconnector, and a continuous route from Central Asia to Western markets that avoids Russia and Iran. Together, these sectors give the proposed route both commercial and strategic content, though not the form of a single named program. Read against the June speech, Daines’s itinerary marks an emerging corridor-centered effort aligned with the Trump administration’s broader Caspian engagement, even without a formal declaration of purpose. Azerbaijan Anchors the Corridor’s Western Connections Baku gives the corridor logic its strongest institutional and bilateral footing. Aliyev and Daines discussed Azerbaijan’s geopolitical role, regional peace, and TRIPP’s importance for transport connectivity. Separate meetings with Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov and Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov extended the agenda to economic cooperation. With SOCAR President Rovshan Najaf, Jabbarov and Daines took up the Middle Corridor, energy, transport, digital development, and critical-mineral extraction and processing. Across the meetings, political, commercial, and technical portfolios converged around Azerbaijan’s place at the corridor’s western Caspian egress. The U.S.–Azerbaijan Strategic Partnership Charter, signed in February, places the Middle Corridor alongside energy, trade, transit, digital connectivity, and critical-mineral movement. It identifies Azerbaijan as an energy, transport, trade, and logistics hub for the Caspian region. Working groups regularize cooperation on trade, energy, connectivity, digital development, and security. The charter also calls for project lists and implementation roadmaps within three months of signing and for meetings at least once a year. In June, the first Azerbaijan-U.S. Economic Dialogue began translating that direction into an operational agenda. Government, financial institutions, and private-sector participants met on regional connectivity and transit, energy security, investment, artificial intelligence, and digital infrastructure. The agenda connected the Middle Corridor and TRIPP with logistics, the Southern Gas Corridor, critical mineral supply chains, transport and energy investment, and the Alat Free Economic Zone. Closing documents covered digital infrastructure, technology transfer, and industrial solutions. The workstreams are clear, but the consolidated project portfolio and its financing have yet to take public form. Azerbaijan’s role also rests on physical infrastructure already in use. The established Middle Corridor crosses Kazakhstan and the Caspian before passing through Azerbaijan and Georgia, then onward toward Türkiye or Europe via the Black Sea. At Alat, 70 kilometers...