The Aktau crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft, which killed 38 people on 25 December, was a tragic event with significant international repercussions. This devastating accident not only claimed lives but also raised critical questions about aviation safety and the handling of sensitive investigations.
As investigators sought to determine its cause, Kazakhstan faced an important decision regarding the handling of the flight recorder. Ultimately, the country chose to transfer the recorder to Brazil, the manufacturer of the aircraft, rather than to the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as Russia had proposed.
This decision reflected both technical and diplomatic considerations, marking a crucial moment in the unfolding investigation. By taking this decision, Kazakhstan adhered to established industry procedures for aviation safety investigations. Such a step highlights the country’s commitment to transparency and global norms in aviation.
The move is typical of the country’s foreign policy under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, whose long diplomatic experience leads him to emphasize a rules-based approach over political considerations and to act in accord with established procedural norms. This choice ensured that the investigation would follow established international practices, thereby lending credibility to the process and reassuring global aviation stakeholders.
This behavior is also in line with Kazakhstan’s broader commitment to international law and a rules-based global order. Another notable example of this approach was its endorsement of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity through its refusal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or the independence of the Donbas regions. These decisions were not necessarily easy ones, given Kazakhstan’s economic and security ties with Russia, but they reinforced its commitment to global standards.
While some observers might frame decisions like the Aktau recorder transfer as a “snub” to Russia, such characterizations would miss the point. Like Kazakhstan’s refusal to recognize Donbas as independent and its efforts to prevent the flow of military components in violation of Western sanctions, its actions are not meant to be about rejecting one partner in favor of another. Rather, acting in its own autonomous interests, Kazakhstan seeks to “do the right thing,” because this maintains a consistent international profile with a steady foreign-policy course grounded in international law and practice.
Kazakhstan’s mediation efforts extend beyond formal multilateral forums, showcasing its active engagement in regional and global diplomacy. The country provided a neutral platform for discussions between opposing factions in the conflict over Syria; and it has also worked to ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting purely bilateral consultations and thus demonstrating its capacity to engage constructively in regional conflicts without taking sides.
These efforts are in line with Kazakhstan’s larger foreign-policy strategy to act as a principled and impartial intermediary on the global stage, fostering dialogue and reducing hostilities. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s leadership in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) reflects its dedication to multilateralism and peaceful conflict resolution.
Kazakhstan exemplifies the rising middle-power archetype also through its significant contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation. Its foreign policy operates on a multi-vector approach, managing relationships with global powers like Russia, China, and the West while mitigating over-reliance on any single actor.
A middle power is defined by its ability to exert substantial regional influence while contributing to global diplomacy through a combination of economic strength, strategic partnerships, and soft power. These states often act as mediators and bridge-builders in global conflicts, leveraging multilateral frameworks to balance relationships among larger powers.
Kazakhstan’s participation in organizations such as the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and the Organization of Turkic States complements its strategic engagement with the European Union and the United States. These actions demonstrate its ability to maintain balanced and constructive relationships across divergent international arenas.
The country’s adherence to international norms is part of its attempt to maintain a geopolitical equilibrium in its own foreign relations. By positioning itself as a bridge between competing spheres of influence, Kazakhstan seeks to promote dialogue and cooperation without alienating any major power.
This can be a difficult balancing act, particularly for Kazakhstan, given the country’s sensitive yet central geographic location. The decision about the flight recorder in Aktau, therefore, is part of a broader strategy to maintain sovereignty, bolster international credibility, and reinforce its image as a nation committed to peace and procedural integrity.
Kazakhstan’s domestic reform agenda is equally critical to sustaining its middle-power status. Under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, the government has introduced sweeping political, economic, and social reforms aimed at modernizing governance, fostering transparency, and addressing corruption and inequality.
By enhancing the rule of law and promoting economic diversification, these initiatives seek to create a stable, competitive environment for growth. The successful implementation of these reforms is vital for Kazakhstan’s ability to maintain regional leadership and expand its international influence.
Kazakhstan’s response to the Aktau crash and its broader foreign and domestic policies testify to a deliberate and nuanced strategy to solidify its position as a middle power. The country shows a pragmatic commitment to balancing geopolitical pressures through prioritizing transparency, multilateralism, and adherence to international norms.
