BISHKEK (TCA) — The Publisher’s note: Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, Central Asia was the scene of intense geopolitical struggle and the Great Game between the British and Russian Empires, and later between the Soviet Union and the West, over Afghanistan and neighboring territories. Into the 21st century, Central Asia has become the area of a renewed geopolitical interest, dubbed the New Great Game, largely based on the region’s hydrocarbon and mineral wealth. On top of that, the region now is perhaps the most important node in the implementation of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative through which Beijing aims to get direct access to Western markets. Every week thousands of news appears in the world’s printed and online media and many of them may escape the attention of busy readers. At The Times of Central Asia, we strongly believe that more information can better contribute to peaceful development and better knowledge of this unique region. So we are presenting this Weekly Digest which compiles what other media have reported on Central Asia over the past week.

KAZAKHSTAN

Report: Hackers detect online protest-sniffing software in Kazakhstan

Restrictive government control over online space in Kazakhstan has had real-life consequences for countless internet users

Dec 21 — “Kazakhstan has reportedly adopted online software developed by Russia’s security services and designed to detect protest moods among the population. Russia-based hacking collective Digital Revolution on December 19 posted scanned documents on its website that it claimed were proof of a mechanism that systematically trawls online news resources and social media for evidence of public discontent.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/report-hackers-detect-online-protest-sniffing-software-in-kazakhstan

OUTLOOK 2019 Kazakhstan

Despite some difficulties caused by low energy prices, Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s leading economy

Dec 21 — “Kazakh GDP grew by 4.1% y/y in the first 10 months of 2018. The growth rate stood largely unchanged in comparison to the figures reported in the first nine months, first half and first quarter of 2018 – growth uniformly stood at 4%-4.1% throughout those periods. Kazakh growth rebounded to 4% in 2017, up from 1% in 2016, and the government attributed the steady growth to a weakening of inflationary pressures and high investment activity.” READ MORE: http://www.intellinews.com/outlook-2019-kazakhstan-154072/

Happy Anniversary Kazakhstan: What Will the New Year Bring?

Kazakhstan has managed in record time to become Central Asia’s leader and is making a name for itself in global affairs

Dec 25 — “The Republic of Kazakhstan celebrated its 27th independence anniversary on December 16th. This past year has brought a number of significant foreign policy-related successes for the Central Asian state. Hence, it is mandatory for those of us that work on international affairs to monitor Astana in 2019 as it approaches three decades of independence.” READ MORE: https://intpolicydigest.org/2018/12/25/happy-anniversary-kazakhstan-what-will-the-new-year-bring/

Programmes seek to attract more medical tourists to Kazakhstan

The development of medical tourism seeks to increase the capacity of healthcare organisations in Kazakhstan and to attract foreign patients

Dec 26 — “Medical tourists from 45 countries come to Kazakhstan annually, reported Deputy General Director of the National Centre for Health Development Aiman Iskakova. Ninety percent of them are citizens of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), mainly from Kyrgyzstan, Russia and Uzbekistan while other visitors come from China, Iran and Turkey. Overall, 1,604 foreign patients were registered in the first 10 months of 2018.” READ MORE: https://astanatimes.com/2018/12/programmes-seek-to-attract-more-medical-tourists-to-kazakhstan/

KYRGYZSTAN

Uzbekistan relocates production of its goods to Kyrgyzstan

Government officials and experts tell about renewed cooperation between Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan

Dec 21 — “Uzbekistan relocates the production of cars to Kyrgyzstan and opens a joint structure set up for cotton processing, textile production and tailoring in the republic. These are the first steps of the roadmap on trade, economic and investment cooperation, signed in Osh by the heads of government of the two countries, Abdulla Aripov and Muhammedkaliy Abylgaziyev.” READ MORE: http://vestnikkavkaza.net/analysis/Uzbekistan-relocates-production-of-its-goods-to-Kyrgyzstan.html

Kyrgyzstan: Commercial banks told to disclose information on customers

Kyrgyzstan’s banks refused to provide information on customers’ accounts to the State Financial Intelligence Service

Dec 23 — “This week, the local media reported that the State Financial Intelligence Service (FIS) of Kyrgyzstan requested all commercial banks of the country to provide data on customers’ accounts and cells. On December 18, the 24.kg news agency posted a letter to commercial banks, dated December 10 and signed by FIS Chairman Gulamjan Anarbaev. The letter stated that in line with the law “On Counteracting the Financing of Terrorist Activities and Legalization (Laundering) of Criminal Proceeds”, all commercial banks should provide data on their customers’ accounts and cells. The deadline was December 17, but none of the banks has provided this information so far.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/20640-kyrgyzstan-commercial-banks-told-to-disclose-information-on-customers

OUTLOOK 2019 Kyrgyzstan

The year 2018 was marked by the ongoing feud between the incumbent President and his predecessor, as well as numerous corruption cases involving high-ranking government officials

Dec 27 — “All eyes in the Kyrgyz Republic are on where the gripping power struggle between President Sooranbai Jeenbekov and his predecessor Almazbek Atambayev goes from here. It was all supposed to be so different. Atambayev went out of his way to back the ascension of Jeenbekov to the presidency in late 2017, in what was Central Asia’s first peaceful democratic replacement of a leader. Plenty of observers were convinced that his support was merely a facade, and that Atambayev planned to rule from the shadows.” READ MORE: http://www.intellinews.com/outlook-2019-kyrgyzstan-153860/

Kyrgyzstan: Judicial reform aims to restore public confidence

It is yet to be seen whether a new wave of the judicial reform will achieve its declared goals in Kyrgyzstan, as the previous reforms have brought no result

Dec 29 — “In order to seize the property of foreign citizens and investors in Kyrgyzstan, some judges make illegal decisions in the interests of organized criminal groups. Such phenomena decrease the investment attractiveness of the state, block foreign investment and cause great damage to the country’s economy, Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov said at a meeting of the Judicial Reform Council on December 27.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/20663-kyrgyzstan-judicial-reform-aims-to-restore-public-confidence

TAJIKISTAN

Japan invests about $ 442,000 for social projects in Tajikistan

In Tajikistan, Japanese aid and investments are mainly focused on education and healthcare projects

Dec 21 — “Japan will provide Tajikistan with more than $ 441,800 of grant funds within the framework of the Government of Japan’s program of free humanitarian aid projects for the general public, the Japanese Embassy in Tajikistan reports. Earlier, the signing ceremony of documents for five new projects took place. The contracts were signed by Hajime Kitaoka, the Japanese ambassador to Tajikistan, and representatives of the beneficiary organizations.” READ MORE: https://www.azernews.az/region/143030.html

Tajik Marriages Now Need A Seal Of Approval

Getting married in Tajikistan has become a more complicated issue, as women often suffer from domestic violence in this conservative society

Dec 28 — “Tajik couples are being ordered to meet with psychologists and lawyers ahead of marriage as part of a pilot project in the capital, Dushanbe, to lower domestic violence and divorce rates. The recommendations of these professionals can block a wedding application if a couple is deemed unsuitable.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/tajikistan-wedding-psychology-tests/29669742.html

The phantom white knights that would save Tajikistan’s banking sector

Tajikistan badly needs foreign investments that would help save the country’s large and ailing bank, but finding such investors has proven to be a difficult task

Dec 28 — “It seemed like a golden opportunity: A flamboyant, rich sheikh with links to the royal family of Saudi Arabia arrived in Tajikistan in May with a handshake offer to buy a controlling stake in a severely ailing local bank. On the face of it, there was no obvious reason for an investor to buy into Tojiksodirotbank, which is weighed down by crushing liabilities.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/20660-the-phantom-white-knights-that-would-save-tajikistan-s-banking-sector

TURKMENISTAN

OUTLOOK 2019 Turkmenistan

The departing year was marked by the severe economic crisis in the gas-rich country, largely caused by decreasing export revenues from natural gas

Dec 23 — “Turkmenistan this year remained an economic basket case and will almost certainly stay that way in 2019 but in Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov at least its people have a president who regularly takes to the stage for a sing-song to cheer them up. In his public comments, Berdimuhamedov—who takes the honorific “Arkadag” (“The Protector”)—is not known for dealing with the tightly controlled, remote Central Asian nation’s economic turmoil head on, but it seems unlikely that he and his officials in Oguzkhan Palace remain entirely uninformed of the desperate circumstances now afflicting much of the population of 5.7mn.” READ MORE: http://www.intellinews.com/outlook-2019-turkmenistan-153883/

Europe interested in receiving Turkmen gas: CIFAL head

Turkmenistan declared its readiness to supply Europe with an annual volume of up to 30 billion cubic meters of natural gas over 30 years

Dec 24 — “Europe is interested in receiving Turkmen gas, Jurgen Krahn, director general of French company CIFAL SA, said in an interview with Turkmenportal, Trend reports. “This is an interesting project,” he said. “After the signing of the Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea, the process of ratification of this treaty is underway in all the Caspian countries.” He noted that the agreement makes it possible to talk about the Trans-Caspian Gas Pipeline.” READ MORE: https://www.azernews.az/region/143094.html

Turkmenistan, Where Social Media is Banned, Gets First Messaging App

One of the world’s most isolated regimes, Turkmenistan has blocked Western services including Twitter and Viber, along with popular Russian networks Odnoklassniki and VKontakte

Dec 26 — “The repressive central Asian nation of Turkmenistan, where the likes of Facebook and Whatsapp are banned, on Monday launched its first messaging app. The privately developed BizBarde app will “allow the exchange of messagers, files, photos and videos,” the state Yaslyk television station said.” READ MORE: https://www.news18.com/news/buzz/turkmenistan-where-social-media-is-banned-gets-first-messaging-app-1983887.html

UZBEKISTAN

Uzbekistan appoints banks for international debt market debut

Having secured a BB- credit rating from Fitch, Uzbekistan is readying a $500 million, 5-10 year bond for the first quarter of next year

Dec 21 — “Uzbekistan is making final preparations for its first foray into international debt markets, naming four international banks to lead a dollar bond deal, sources involved in the plans have told Reuters. JP Morgan has been appointed as lead adviser, and is joined by international debt houses Deutsche Bank and Citi as well state-owned Russian bank Gazprombank.” READ MORE: https://www.reuters.com/article/us-uzbekistan-bonds/exclusive-uzbekistan-appoints-banks-for-international-debt-market-debut-idUSKCN1OK1PC

Phantom foreign investors for an open new Uzbekistan

A high-profile urban development project in Tashkent is designed to showcase the country for western capital, but openDemocracy’s investigation suggests principal investors are from much closer to home

Dec 21 — “Two years after the death of Islam Karimov, Uzbekistan’s first president, the once impenetrable country has shown interest in opening up to international investors. Enthusiasts regard this as the “Uzbek spring”, a new beginning for the country under its new leader, Shavkat Mirziyoyev. Others have pointed to the sluggish and inconsistent pace of liberal reforms in the Central Asian state, which could just be used as façade to attract foreign capital.” READ MORE: https://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/opendemocracy-investigations/tashkent-city-project-uzbekistan-phantom-foreign-investors

After two years, Uzbekistan still looks wobbly on the reform tightrope

Uzbekistan has so far taken some steps towards economic and political liberalization, but much is yet to be done on the country’s way to real democracy and economic success

Dec 22 — “For its first 25 years of independence, Uzbekistan was a spiky creature. It mostly shunned multinational blocs, engaged only cautiously with large partners and was outright hostile to its neighbors. Inside the country, authorities terrified the population into submission. The death of the tyrant Islam Karimov in September 2016 marked a turning point of sorts. President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, who was formally inaugurated in December 2016, has hung an “open for business” sign on Uzbekistan’s door to the outside world and sought better relations with all neighbors.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/20639-after-two-years-uzbekistan-still-looks-wobbly-on-the-reform-tightrope

Uzbekistan President Shavkat Mirziyoyev named Asian of the Year

President Mirziyoyev has taken initiatives to focus on good neighborhood relations, deepening regional cooperation and making Uzbekistan politically liberal and economically more attractive

Dec 27 — “President of Uzbekistan Shavkat Mirziyoyev who has chartered a new course in his country’s foreign policy including pathbreaking partnership with India has been selected as ‘Asian of the Year’ for 2018 by the Asia Journalist Association (AJA), whose headquarter is based in South Korea.” READ MORE: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/uzbekistan-president-who-chartered-new-course-of-ties-with-india-named-asian-of-the-year/articleshow/67270703.cms

AFGHANISTAN

U.S. troop drawdown in Afghanistan raises big questions

Analyst answers three questions about how the US troop drawdown may affect the situation in Afghanistan

Dec 23 — “The 17-year-old U.S. war in Afghanistan took a new turn this week when President Trump ordered the withdrawal of 7,000 American troops from the country. Trump has long questioned the utility of U.S. involvement in Afghanistan, seeing it as a wasteful expense — and a conflict without a clear victory strategy. The White House decision was followed by the resignationof Defense Secretary Jim Mattis, who had pushed for continued U.S. engagement in Afghanistan.” READ MORE: https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/monkey-cage/wp/2018/12/23/u-s-troop-drawdown-in-afghanistan-raises-big-questions/?noredirect=on&utm_term=.b27bb8bf8d64

Why Pakistan passionately desires peace in Afghanistan

Pakistan is perhaps the first country wishing for peace in neighboring Afghanistan

Dec 26 — “Being a neighbor of Afghanistan, Pakistan has suffered a lot as a result of events in that country. Whether it was the Soviet invasion or power struggles of various factions of the Taliban or the US intervention after September 11, 2001, Pakistan had to pay a very high cost.” READ MORE: http://www.atimes.com/why-pakistan-passionately-desires-peace-in-afghanistan/

Afghanistan economic policy amplifies drawdown chorus

Afghanistan jumped 15 spots on the World Bank’s Doing Business rankings, but remains at the bottom of the anti-corruption Transparency International list

Dec 26 — “US President Donald Trump’s unilateral decision to halve the American troop presence in Afghanistan, reportedly due more to political and pocketbook than strategic military considerations, came against ambivalent outside reviews of economic policy and performance, as Kabul also grapples with sanctions and austerity fallout in trade partners Iran and Pakistan.” READ MORE: http://www.atimes.com/afghanistan-economic-policy-amplifies-drawdown-chorus/

What’s next for the United States in Afghanistan?

The US president has given the Taliban what they’ve long demanded — a commitment to withdraw troops — and they didn’t need to give up anything in return

Dec 28 — “Zalmay Khalilzad is likely not a happy man right now. Khalilzad, the US special envoy for Afghanistan reconciliation, had been on an urgent mission: Launch a peace process with the Taliban, and launch it soon. With US President Donald Trumpeager to wind down the war, Washington has been eager to get a deal to give the president cover for a withdrawal.” READ MORE: https://www.aljazeera.com/indepth/opinion/united-states-withdrawal-afghanistan-181227010746519.html

WORLD

Chabahar port critical to Delhi’s Eurasia strategy & connectivity initiatives in Indo-Pacific region

The Indian government maintains that once functional, the Chabahar Port in Iran will serve as a “growth engine” to India, Iran, Afghanistan and Central Asian countries

Dec 26 — “It was culmination of years of efforts when India Ports Global Limited Company on Monday opened its office in Chabahar and took over the operations at the Shaheed Behesti port at the Iranian city, a step that would take Delhi closer to effective connectivity link to Afghanistan, Central Asia and parts of Russia.” READ MORE: https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/defence/chabahar-critical-to-delhis-eurasia-strategy-connectivity-initiatives-in-indo-pacific-region/articleshow/67262754.cms

Viewpoint: The logic of nuclear power for Central Asia

Many observers were surprised this year when Uzbekistan announced its decision to build Central Asia’s first nuclear power plant, writes Jurabek Mirzakhmudov, director general of UzAtom, Uzbekistan’s state nuclear agency which was established in July

Dec 27 — “Why, we were asked, would a leading gas producer opt to go nuclear when we could easily increase our gas-fired electricity production? We are doing so largely because of growth. Uzbekistan, Central Asia’s most populous nation, has one of the fastest growing economies in the world. The World Bank is forecasting GDP growth of about 5% this year and next, and 5.5% in 2020. Current projections indicate that, to match these trends and consumer demand, we will need to double electricity output by 2030.” READ MORE: http://world-nuclear-news.org/Articles/Viewpoint-The-logic-of-nuclear-power-for-Central-A

BISHKEK (TCA) — In order to seize the property of foreign citizens and investors in Kyrgyzstan, some judges make illegal decisions in the interests of organized criminal groups. Such phenomena decrease the investment attractiveness of the state, block foreign investment and cause great damage to the country’s economy, Kyrgyz President Sooronbai Jeenbekov said at a meeting of the Judicial Reform Council on December 27.

The Council discussed the implementation of the President’s decree on measures taken as part of the ongoing judicial reform and new bills in this area.

From January 1, 2019, five new codes and two laws will come into force in Kyrgyzstan. The new codes provide for the introduction of new institutions such as the Unified Register, the investigating judge, the digitization of the investigative offices and courtrooms, and probation. Successful judicial and legal reform will directly depend on the work of these institutions.

“People’s confidence in the judiciary will be restored,” the President said. He explained the peculiarities of the current reform. Earlier, the judicial and legal reforms were carried out separately while they will be implemented together from 2019. It is impossible to consider them separately, Jeenbekov added.

Old-fashioned thinking

On the President’s initiative, an expert working group was established to monitor the activities of the judicial and legal reform in May.

“According to the WG, this work is still hampered by our old-fashioned thinking. Law enforcement and supervisory authorities do not want to abandon the old repressive laws, and some government agencies lack the political will to carry out the reform,” the President said.

The Government and Parliament are late in adopting certain very relevant laws. The reform’s preparatory stage has been completed, and the time has come to work in the new legal space from January 1, 2019, he added.

The reform should change the population’s attitude to the authorities, including the judiciary.

“Our people waited for this reform for a long time. The revolutions of 2005 and 2010 occurred due to the lack of such reforms and because of corruption and injustice,” Jeenbekov said.

Minor crimes

When the codes come into force, the courts and investigators will have much more work. Not very serious crimes have been removed from the Criminal Code and transferred to the Code of Misdemeanors. They are not considered crimes now. The new code does not provide for the imprisonment of those who have committed minor crimes, the President explained.

“For instance, the Сode imposes fines and correctional works for those who had stolen a bicycle, TV set, or a chicken. Sentences for certain types of crimes will be reduced. The society should educate criminals, but not just punish them,” he said.

There is no practice of applying the new laws in the country. Therefore, law enforcement, control and judicial authorities, together with the monitoring working group, should analyze the practice of applying new laws, travel to all regions of the country and hold meetings.

Unfair decisions

People often complaint about the work of judicial and law enforcement bodies.

“Our citizens are mostly dissatisfied with court decisions and the behavior of judges. Unfair decisions of judges excite the public and cause dissatisfaction of citizens,” Jeenbekov said.

Citizens also began to complain more about the Supreme Court judges, saying they unreasonably cancel the decisions of local courts and return them for reconsideration. The unreasonable delay in trials cause great criticism, said the head of state citing several cases.

The President told about the civil case of a person who appealed to him. The simplest, ordinary civil case has been delayed since 2013 until now. The Supreme Court considered it four times and did not make decision, sending it for reconsideration. In addition, the Chui Regional Court made the wrong decision in this case, making mistakes. Then the court spent time correcting them. As a result, the case has lasted five years.

Focus on human rights

The current judicial and legal reform has positive differences from the previous attempts, said Gulmira Mamatkerimova, a Judicial and Legal Reform Council member.
The reform is focused on human rights and the rule of law. If it is implemented in the coming years, there will be no more powerlessness and judicial and police arbitrariness that occur now.

In 2019, a working group will be established to draft new amendments to the codes. Reform task groups should be created in the relevant state bodies to train specialists in the regions.

Business involvement

The International Business Council based in Bishkek developed a package of proposals to improve the judicial system and ensure the rule of law in Kyrgyzstan and submitted it to the Government. Several proposals were included in the draft Action Plan for the implementation of the Judicial System Development Program of the Kyrgyz Republic for 2018-2022.

IBC Executive Director Askar Sydykov voiced the opinion of the business community on this issue at the meeting of President Jeenbekov with the business community on September 17. In June 2018, the Government opened a special account for financial proceeds from the fight against corruption.

“Now the account is being actively replenished but we would not want this to turn into extortion of money from the business,” Sydykov said.

There is a rule according to which a certain percentage of funds recovered in favor of the State as a result of judicial acts in criminal cases initiated by law enforcement and supervisory authorities should be transferred in favor of such a body. To get such money, security bodies initiated and submitted to the judicial bodies cases on business issues without sufficient legal grounds.

The IBC proposed to consider alternative methods of encouraging the work of law enforcement agencies without collecting money from private business entities.

Transparency of courts

To ensure the independence of judges, the business association proposed to limit the intervention of state bodies in the activities of courts.

Fearing to be dismissed or prosecuted, judges have currently to follow the instructions of higher courts and other state bodies. When considering tax disputes that may lead to a substantial replenishment of the state budget, judges, fearing of dissatisfaction of state bodies, make decisions in favor of the State, often in the absence of legal grounds.

According to surveys, about 90 percent of tax disputes in courts were decided in favor of the state, which undermines public confidence.

To increase the transparency of the courts, IBC proposed to oblige judges to post electronic version of all materials on economic cases decided or under consideration, including evidence, copies of contracts and other documents not containing secrets protected by the law.

The IBC also proposed to conduct audio recording of court sessions along with paper protocols using audio recording media (voice recorder, mobile phone, etc.). The introduction of audio recordings does not entail significant financial costs and is an effective way of recording court proceedings to avoid errors and inaccuracies in written protocols. Audio recordings should be attached to written protocols and posted on the websites of the courts.

At the Judicial Reform Council meeting, President Jeenbekov stressed the need to complete the work on equipping all courtrooms with audio and video equipment for recording protocols as soon as possible.

ASTANA (TCA) — Minister of Culture and Sports Arystanbek Mukhamediuly spoke about the ongoing work on the development of the tourism industry in Kazakhstan at a press conference on December 28, the official website of the Prime Minister of Kazakhstan reported.

According to the minister, in 2019 the State Program for the Development of Tourism will be adopted, which will allow Kazakhstan to fully realize the potential for attracting foreign tourists.

Three main objectives of the program are to increase the flow of mass international tourists; develop the market and create new jobs to increase the number of people employed in the tourism industry; and increase the investment attractiveness of the tourism industry and the share of tourism in the total GDP of Kazakhstan to 8% by 2025.

The core of the state program is the Map of Kazakhstan’s touristization. Top 10 destinations of the national level and 50 regional ones have been determined. The successful implementation of the Top 10 project will allow to increase the tourist flow fourfold by 2025, and to create up to 64 thousand new jobs.

Top 10 destinations of the national level are:

1) Astana — with a potential of 1,000,000 tourists per year;

2) Burabai resort zone — with a potential of 2,000,000 tourists per year (current flow is 750,000);

3) Lake Alakol — with a potential of 2,500,000 tourists per year (the current flow is 772,000 tourists per year);

4) Mountain cluster of the Almaty region — with a potential of 2,500,000 tourists per year (current flow — 500,000);

5) Bayanaul resort area — with a potential of 450,000 tourists per year (the current flow is 200,000);

6) Imantau-Shalkar resort area — with a potential of 400,000 tourists per year (current flow is 130,000);

7) Lake Balkhash — with a potential of 400,000 tourists per year (the current flow is 130,000);

8) Turkestan city — with a potential of 1,500,000 tourists per year (current flow is 500,000);

9) Baikonur space complex;

10) Mangystau — with a potential of 750,000 tourists per year.

BISHKEK (TCA) — Kyrgyzstan’s former customs chief has been extradited from Azerbaijan to Bishkek, where he is wanted on charges of abuse of office, RFE/RL’s Kyrgyz Service reported.

Continue reading

DUSHANBE (TCA) — Tajikistan badly needs foreign investments that would help save the country’s large and ailing bank, but finding such investors has proven to be a difficult task. We are republishing this article on the issue, originally published by Eurasianet:

It seemed like a golden opportunity: A flamboyant, rich sheikh with links to the royal family of Saudi Arabia arrived in Tajikistan in May with a handshake offer to buy a controlling stake in a severely ailing local bank.

On the face of it, there was no obvious reason for an investor to buy into Tojiksodirotbank, which is weighed down by crushing liabilities. But the Saudis have been proudly boasting of their efforts to squeeze Iran out of Tajikistan in recent years. So this proposed acquisition appeared like a piece of that broader strategic vision.

Closer scrutiny revealed some odd inconsistencies, however. And this was not the only time Tojiksodirotbank’s claims to have found a white knight proved unconvincing. The accounts of tens of thousands of customers hang in the balance. Unless Tojiksodirotbank is able to find a savior soon, countless families face the prospect of their savings definitively going up in smoke.

So who exactly is Al Waleed Al Dahash Al Tuwaijri? The name is indeed vaguely similar to that of some members of the sprawling Saudi ruling family. But the man himself has little online presence other than his social media accounts. Multiple people in the Saudi business community queried by Eurasianet professed never to have heard of him.

And what of his company, Saudi Investment Group? The name appears designed to mislead for its similarity to the Saudi Investment Company, a Geneva-headquartered entity that represents the vast Saudi Binladin Group conglomerate. Company details included in the Panama Papers leaks reveal the existence of something called Saudi Investment Group Ltd., although there does not seem to be any link.

A source in the Saudi Embassy in Tajikistan told Eurasianet their mission was not involved in al Waleed’s visit. The same source also professed to have no knowledge of Saudi Investment Group.

The man going by the name of Al Waleed Al Dahash Al Tuwaijri does exist though, as his voluminous social media activity attests. A flurry of photos posted to Instagram in May show him being given the red-carpet treatment by Tajik financial officials. Elsewhere on Instagram, al Waleed regularly intersperses photos of himself traveling the world among those of senior members of the Saudi royal family. He is never shown in images actually alongside figures of the Saudi elite, however, which raises suspicions that the ties may not be real.

A Eurasianet correspondent reached out to al Waleed on several of his social media accounts and received no response for days. Finally, somebody responded.

“This Dr.Ali From The PR Time Of H.e.sheikh AlWaleed,” read the message, delivered through Twitter on December 14. “I Have To Check With H.E Office And Com Back to You”.

After that, silence.

Tojiksodirotbank failed to respond to phone and written queries for clarifications about al Waleed and about whether the businessman was intending to follow through on his purported promise to buy a 51 percent stake in the Dushanbe-based lender.

The tale of the mysterious Al Waleed might have been but a curious blip on the radar screen if executives at Tojiksodirotbank had not claimed subsequently to have attracted Chinese interest from something called the Junan Railroad Corporation. A source at the lender told Asia-Plus news website that this company might invest up to $200 million.

The name of the Junan Railroad Corporation is similar to Shandong-based China Railway Jinan Group, or CR Jinan, but these two entities are not known to be related. Junan Railroad Corporation, in fact, offers even fewer online breadcrumbs than Saudi Investment Group.

In the same industry newsletter interview in which a Tojiksodirotbank executive claimed his bank was object of courtship from the Junan Railroad Corporation, he said management was also engaged in investment talks with other banks, like Russia’s VTB and Sberbank, Kazakhstan’s Kazkommertsbank and companies from Hong Kong, Slovakia and Malaysia.

Getting to the bottom of how real all these negotiations actually are is difficult given how uncommunicative Tojiksodirotbank’s press office has been.

What is clear is that time is running out for the bank and its long-suffering customers.

At the start of 2017, the government pumped in 2.25 billion somoni (around $285 million at the time) worth of liquidity to keep the bank afloat. In exchange, the Finance Ministry acquired an 85 percent stake in Tojiksodirotbank. A condition for this bailout was that the bank should lure foreign investment to fund an incremental five-year buyback operation.

According to the National Bank, Tojiksodirotbank has to date paid back $12.6 million or so, thereby reacquiring a 5 percent stake – as required by the terms of the bailout. The schedule envisions a 20 percent buyback in 2019, which implies a transaction worth more than $50 million.

The money that Tojiksodirotbank has scrabbled together so far has come in part from selling off assets, such as regional branches, computer equipment, payment terminals and ATMs.

Only a foreign investor is likely to have the heft to enable the continuation of the buyback exercise. But the only foreign investors to have offered that vital role may not actually exist.

Failure to receive an imminent injection of cash may lead to the government pulling Tojiksodirotbank’s license in the coming days and weeks. Once that happens, the fate of savings accounts on its books will likely be grim.

That is despite assurances from President Emomali Rahmon in December 2016 that the government would do everything possible to make sure savers would get their money.

“Tell account-holders not to worry,” Rahmon advised banks.

They may need to start worrying now.