• KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
  • KGS/USD = 0.01144 0%
  • KZT/USD = 0.00194 -0%
  • TJS/USD = 0.10844 -0.46%
  • UZS/USD = 0.00008 0%
  • TMT/USD = 0.28571 0.28%
09 December 2025

Weekly Digest of Central Asia

BISHKEK (TCA) — The Publisher’s note: Throughout the 19th and 20th centuries, Central Asia was the scene of intense geopolitical struggle and the Great Game between the British and Russian Empires, and later between the Soviet Union and the West, over Afghanistan and neighboring territories. Into the 21st century, Central Asia has become the area of a renewed geopolitical interest, dubbed the New Great Game, largely based on the region’s hydrocarbon and mineral wealth. On top of that, the region now is perhaps the most important node in the implementation of China’s One Belt, One Road initiative through which Beijing aims to get direct access to Western markets. Every week thousands of news appears in the world’s printed and online media and many of them may escape the attention of busy readers. At The Times of Central Asia, we strongly believe that more information can better contribute to peaceful development and better knowledge of this unique region. So we are presenting this Weekly Digest which compiles what other media have reported on Central Asia over the past week.

KAZAKHSTAN

Is Kazakhstan’s political opposition creeping back?

As President Nazarbayev will turn 78 this year, the power succession issue is becoming even more relevant in Kazakhstan, prompting a re-emergence of the country’s opposition on the political scene

May 28 — “After a long hibernation, organized political opposition is making a comeback in Kazakhstan. For over five years, the country’s political scene has been utterly moribund. The parties that are allowed to exist sing from the same hymn sheet as the authorities. Dissenters have either found their organizations banned or have withered away into insignificance.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/19800-is-kazakhstan-s-political-opposition-creeping-back

Minister: Developing digital economy is matter of national security for Kazakhstan

In an interview, Kazakh Minister of Information and Communication tells about the Digital Kazakhstan programme and the country’s plan to join the world’s digital giants

May 29 — “Kazakhstan is developing its digital technologies in many fields, such as the economy, agriculture or administration, and the Central Asian country also wants to become a pioneer in digital innovation, with the creation of technology hubs and parks.” READ MORE: https://www.euractiv.com/section/central-asia/news/minister-developing-digital-economy-is-matter-of-national-security-for-kazakhstan/

Kazakhstan: Russian military to leave Baikonur base?

The civilian status of Baikonur would make it possible to attract more private-sector interest in the cosmodrome

May 30 — “A senior official in Kazakhstan has confirmed that the government is considering options for Russia to end its military presence at Baikonur cosmodrome, which is currently leased to Russia. Speaking on May 30, Defense and Aerospace Industry Minister Beibut Atamkulov said, however, that a definitive decision on the issue has yet to be made.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/kazakhstan-russian-military-to-leave-baikonur-base

Copied Free Birds: Plagiarism Allegations Hit Kazakhstan’s Government Again

The subject of the matter is the bird-shaped logo of a state program aimed at the modernization of society. The concept, shape, and colors of the logo are suspiciously similar to the one used by L’Aigle de Patmos, a French theater company, in 2009

May 30 — “Kazakhstan’s government has come under fire on social media once again for the alleged plagiarism of the logo of one of the most visible public initiatives in the country, fueling public disappointment.” READ MORE: https://thediplomat.com/2018/05/copied-free-birds-plagiarism-allegations-hit-kazakhstans-government-again/

KYRGYZSTAN

Kyrgyzstan: green activists sound alarm over air pollution in Bishkek

Kyrgyzstan is an agrarian country, but even the development of agriculture leads to a deterioration of the ecological situation in the country

May 29 — “Environmentalists are asking the President of Kyrgyzstan to declare 2019 the year of ecology. This was announced at the recent roundtable on air pollution problems in the capital Bishkek. Parliament members, representatives of the Achyk Asman (Clean Air) youth environmental movement, civil society, and the media took part in the discussions.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/19805-kyrgyzstan-green-activists-sound-alarm-over-air-pollution-in-bishkek

Kyrgyzstan: Former PM charged with corruption over power plant project

The corruption case concerning the Bishkek power plant modernization by a Chinese company is playing out against the backdrop of a behind-the-scenes battle for political influence between President Sooronbai Jeenbekov and his predecessor, Almazbek Atambayev

May 29 — “Security services in Kyrgyzstan said on May 29 that they are charging the recently fired prime minister on corruption offenses — a bold move that will raise the stakes in a deepening political standoff.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/kyrgyzstan-former-pm-charged-with-corruption-over-power-plant-project

Kyrgyz Bride Kidnapping Ends In Brutal Stabbing, Prompting Outrage

Bride kidnapping has been illegal for years in Kyrgyzstan but its prosecutions have been rare, as police and prosecutors often try to force the two sides to resolve the matter peacefully between themselves

May 29 — “Kyrgyz authorities are investigating the brutal stabbing death of a 20-year-old woman by a man who had abducted her hours earlier near Bishkek as part of a longstanding but illegal Kyrgyz practice known as “bride kidnapping.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/kyrgyz-bride-kidnapping-ends-in-brutal-stabbing-prompting-outrage/29257873.html

How Kyrgyzstan’s new president turned on his mentor

The recent developments in Kyrgyzstan have shown that the power succession scheme designed by former President Atambayev has proven to be his mistake

June 1 — “It was just half a year ago that Kyrgyzstan made history with its first peaceful handover of power from one elected president to another. Before ending his single permitted six-year term, Almazbek Atambayev looked around for a friendly successor to anoint. The choice fell on Sooronbai Jeenbekov, a long-time associate. His loyal then-prime minister would surely be a dependable and even a malleable head of state as he continued to operate in the background, he must have thought.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/19820-how-kyrgyzstan-s-new-president-turned-on-his-mentor

TAJIKISTAN

ADB considered Tajikistan’s main international donor

The economy of Tajikistan is heavily dependent on borrowed funds — mainly coming from China and international financial organizations

May 30 — “About 82 percent of financing approved by international development banks in the first quarter of this year for Tajikistan falls on the Asian Development Bank (ADB). “In Tajikistan, the bulk of investments are accounted for the ADB’s $90 million loan in the transport sector,” according to the international development banks’ investment review for the first quarter of 2018 published by the Eurasian Development Bank.” READ MORE: https://www.azernews.az/region/132764.html

Seminar Held On Pakistan-Tajikistan Tourism, Opportunities

Tour operators, tourism promoters and hotel management officials from both countries are set to boost tourism between the two nations

May 31 — “Pakistan Tourism Development Corportation (PTDC) in collaboration with Embassy of TajikistanThursday organized a one day seminar on Tajikistan “the land of opportunities for Tourism Industry Pakistan”. READ MORE: https://www.urdupoint.com/en/pakistan/seminar-held-on-pakistan-tajikistan-tourism-358754.html

Russia, Tajikistan talk over strategic co-op

Russia remains an important strategic partner for Tajikistan, as hundreds of thousands of Tajik labor migrants make their living in Russia and altogether send millions of dollars back home

May 31 — “Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev invited President of Tajikistan Emomali Rahmon to “discuss the whole complex of strategic cooperation” between Moscow and Dushanbe. The president of Tajikistan assured that the development of relations with Russia is a priority in the country’s foreign policy, TASS reported.” READ MORE: https://en.trend.az/casia/tajikistan/2910907.html

TURKMENISTAN

Hunger And Eviction: Money Woes Send Turkmen Students Abroad Scrambling

In recent months Turkmen citizens abroad have been complaining about their debit-card problems

May 26 — “A Russian ATM machine’s repeated rejection of his efforts to withdraw cash from his Turkmen bank led one student to cut up his bank card and try to cook it for a meal. Video of the culinary first (he did add salt) that was sent to RFE/RL’s Turkmen Service was a humorous attempt to express the utter frustration felt by many of the thousands of Turkmen students studying around the world who are unable to get money from their bank accounts back home.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/turkmenistan-debit-cards-financial-cutoff-students-hunger-eviction/29252238.html

Turkmenistan’s Natural Gas Dilemma

Ashgabat risks to get involved in a regional Saudi-Iranian standoff, which may negatively affect the implementation of the TAPI gas pipeline project through Afghanistan and leave Turkmenistan without much-needed gas-export revenues

May 29 — “Amid much (obligatory) fanfare, Turkmenistan has intensified its spin campaign on TAPI, the long-delayed pipe dream of President Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov which is supposed to supply Afghanistan, Pakistan and India with Turkmen natural gas. Turkmenistan claims it is on the brink of securing the $8 billion it needs for the construction financing, stating it is a mere matter of several months until they attain that point and that negotiations have been proceeding with numerous counterparties.” READ MORE: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Turkmenistans-Natural-Gas-Dilemma.html

Turkmenistan: Cotton bans and whitewashes

In its ‘Akhal-Teke: A Turkmenistan Bulletin’, Eurasianet reviews the main news and events in the Central Asian country for the previous week

May 29 — “It is not often that you hear about cotton from Turkmenistan, although you may unknowingly be wearing it. Following a successful campaign by the Washington-based advocacy group International Labor Rights Forum, or ILRF, the crop may earn a higher profile while less of it will be exported.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/turkmenistan-cotton-bans-and-whitewashes

Speakers urge protection of agro-economy while laying TAPI Gas Pipeline

Pakistan has concerns about the environmental and social impacts of its section of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) gas pipeline

June 1 — “Over 400 kilometres section of Turkmenistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan-India (TAPI) Gas Pipeline, which will pass through the Punjab province, should fully conserve and protect agro-economy of the province, especially sugarcane and mango farms of the districts that will come across the proposed route of the pipeline.” READ MORE: https://tribune.com.pk/story/1724543/1-speakers-urge-protection-agro-economy-laying-tapi-gas-pipeline/

UZBEKISTAN

Uzbekistan assailed by cataclysmic sand and salt storm

The Aral Sea disaster continues taking its toll on the agriculture and health of people in Central Asia

May 30 — “Remote western regions of the Uzbekistan have for several days been assailed by a cataclysmic sand and salt storm. Meteorological authorities have been cited by local media as saying that the content of sand and salt in the air in the near-Aral region has exceeded the norm by almost sixfold.” READ MORE: https://eurasianet.org/s/uzbekistan-assailed-by-cataclysmic-sand-and-salt-storm

PROJECT EXILE: UZBEKISTAN CONTINUES BAN ON EXILED JOURNALIST

Exiled Uzbek journalist on the state of human rights in Uzbekistan today

May 30 — “Hamid Ismailov deserves an apology. Or at the very least, an explanation. It has been 26 years since the events that led Uzbek journalist Ismailov to leave his home country of Uzbekistan and flee to the United Kingdom. In the 1990s, Ismailov was working with a BBC television crew to make a film about Uzbekistan. The repressive regime in power under Islam Karimov opened a criminal case against Ismailov. The authorities said Ismailov was trying to overthrow the government.” READ MORE: https://globaljournalist.org/2018/05/project-exile-uzbekistan-continues-ban-on-exiled-journalist/

Uzbekistan to receive Japanese machinery worth $7.3 mln for free

Uzbekistan is taking efforts to build new motor roads and repair the existing ones

May 31 — “Japan will donate to Uzbekistan a lot of road construction equipment worth 800 million Japanese yens or about $7.3 million. This is provided for by exchange notes, which were signed by representatives of Uzbekistan and Japan in Tashkent on May 30.” READ MORE: https://www.azernews.az/region/132827.html

Uzbekistan to buy out GM stake in car factory – report

Along with Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan is a leading manufacturer and exporter of cars in Central Asia

May 31 — “Uzbekistan plans to buy GM’s remaining 10 percent stake in the U.S. carmaker’s plant in the country this year, Uzbek news website Gazeta.uz quoted state auto company chief Umidjan Salimov as saying on Thursday.” READ MORE: https://www.reuters.com/article/uzbekistan-gm/update-1-uzbekistan-to-buy-out-gm-stake-in-car-factory-report-idUSL5N1T254Z

AFGHANISTAN

U.S. Attacks Taliban’s Source of Funds in Afghanistan

US military now hit Afghanistan’s illegal poppy and narcotics industry — the main source of finance for the Taliban

May 30 — “The U.S. has retooled its aerial bombing campaign in Afghanistan to target the Taliban’s sources of money, not just its fighters. Since the strategic bombing campaign began in November, U.S. aircraft have conducted 113 strikes aimed at cutting off revenue the Taliban allegedly receive from opium poppies and roadside taxes, a major shift in war strategy intended to drive the insurgents to the negotiating table.” READ MORE: https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-afghanistan-u-s-attacks-talibans-source-of-funds-1527672601

Lessons learned from the U.S. experience in Afghanistan

Remarks that John F. Sopko, Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, delivered on May 24, 2018

May 30 — “The fourth lessons-learned report from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (or SIGAR), entitled “Stabilization: Lessons from the U.S. Experience in Afghanistan,” is the culmination of two years of work and examines the U.S. stabilization effort in Afghanistan. It details how USAID, the State Department, and the Defense Department tried to support and legitimize the Afghan government in contested districts in Afghanistan from 2002 through 2017.” READ MORE: https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2018/05/30/lessons-learned-from-the-u-s-experience-in-afghanistan/

THE TALIBAN IS HOLDING SECRET NEGOTIATIONS WITH GOVERNMENT AS AFGHANISTAN VIOLENCE ESCALATES, MILITARY COMMANDER REVEALS

Analysts say the increase in violence by the Taliban has given the insurgent group more leverage and forced the government in Kabul to pursue talks more aggressively

May 31 — “As violence in Afghanistan continues to mount, the Taliban is secretly holding a meeting with the government in Kabul, U.S. military officials revealed. The Afghan government had first offered to meet with Taliban leaders in February, but their overtures were ignored, according to reports at the time. Now, top U.S. military officials say talks are taking placebehind the scenes, and that international organizations and other foreign governments are also participating in the negotiations” READ MORE: http://www.newsweek.com/taliban-holding-secret-negotiations-government-afghanistan-violence-escalates-951170

The Tashkent conference on Afghanistan: too much diplomacy, too little solution

Achieving peace in Afghanistan requires the resolve and joint efforts of many players inside the war-torn country, in the Central Asia region and beyond — but the interests of those players still differ

May 31 — “On March 26-27, 2018, the unprecedented international conference on Afghanistan, “Peace process, security cooperation and regional interactions,” took place in Uzbekistan’s capital Tashkent. Diplomatic representatives of 21 states, the UN and the EU participated in the conference and signed its final Tashkent Declaration.” READ MORE: https://timesca.com/index.php/news/26-opinion-head/19815-the-tashkent-conference-on-afghanistan-too-much-diplomacy-too-little-solution

WORLD

Geopolitics and Conflict Potential in Central Asia and South Caucasus

Analyst believes that geography determines not only the political but also the economic orientations of Central Asia

May 25 — “Two post-Soviet Caspian Sea sub-regions – Central Asia and the South Caucasus – have experienced different conflict scenarios. The South Caucasus has been embroiled in protracted, large-scale armed conflicts, while Central Asians have managed to avert a serious armed conflict, remaining largely peaceful in spite of local, short-term, small-scale clashes, and the existence of factors that may have led – and still may potentially lead – to a serious military conflict.” READ MORE: https://www.geopoliticalmonitor.com/geopolitics-and-conflict-potential-in-central-asia-and-south-caucasus/

Are Central Asia’s Militants Already Coming Home From The Middle East?

Hundreds of natives of post-Soviet republics of Central Asia who fought in the ranks of the Islamic State in Syria and Iraq may pose a serious threat when they return to their home countries

May 25 — “Kyrgyzstan appears to be waging a major battle on its own soil against alleged members of “international terrorist organizations.” In less than 12 months, there have been at least 28 security operations that resulted in apprehending suspects who Kyrgyz authorities say were connected to terrorist groups in Syria and Iraq.” READ MORE: https://www.rferl.org/a/qishloq-ovozo-kyrgyzstan-militants-coming-home-central-asia-middle-east-/29251178.html

How Kyrgyzstan’s new president turned on his mentor

BISHKEK (TCA) — The recent developments in Kyrgyzstan have shown that the power succession scheme designed by former President Atambayev has proven to be his mistake. We are republishing this article on the issue, written by Nurjamal Djanibekova, originally published by Eurasianet:

It was just half a year ago that Kyrgyzstan made history with its first peaceful handover of power from one elected president to another.

Before ending his single permitted six-year term, Almazbek Atambayev looked around for a friendly successor to anoint. The choice fell on Sooronbai Jeenbekov, a long-time associate. His loyal then-prime minister would surely be a dependable and even a malleable head of state as he continued to operate in the background, he must have thought.

After Jeenbekov made it through a scrappy election in one round in October, it all went sour. All thought of sharing power has gone straight out of the window. Since coming to office, Jeenbekov has fired all Atambayev’s top allies and prosecutors are now filing criminal cases against some of them.

How it all began

In the early days after the succession operation was successfully executed, Atambayev disappeared from the public eye. That interlude ended on March 31, when he embarked on a pugnacious return to the political arena at a congress of the ruling Social Democratic Party of Kyrgyzstan, or SDPK. He had formally severed links to the party while president, as required by law. But as Atambayev made clear after being reappointed leader by the SDPK nomenklatura, his return had been prompted by unhappiness over how Jeenbekov had been running the shop.

Atambayev grumbled in trademark manner about Jeenbekov’s criticism of anti-corruption reforms undertaken during his presidency. He then implied Jeenbekov was laying the grounds for clan rule by declining to pressure his brother, Asylbek, a former speaker of parliament and sitting MP, into giving up his seat.

Asylbek Jeenbekov is actually also a high-ranking member of the SDPK, so it did not go unnoticed that he was not invited to the party congress.

President Jeenbekov took the high road and disdained to respond publicly to Atambayev’s inferences. His answer came in the days and weeks that followed.

From ally to opponent

One by one, all Atambayev’s allies have been kicked out of office. On April 7, the deputy head of the State Committee for National Security, or GKNB, Bolot Suyumbayev, lost his job, becoming the first victim of a systematic purge.

Next came GKNB chief Abdil Segizbayev. And then General Prosecutor Indira Joldubayeva. And then the head of the customs service Kubanychbek Kulmatov. And most dramatic of all, former Prime Minister Sapar Isakov.

Isakov had to be squeezed out by a vote in parliament, which should on paper not have been easy. Atambayev’s SDPK, after all, holds the largest bloc in the 120-seat parliament, although more than 20 MPs short of an outright majority.

All the same, several SDPK MPs turned on Isakov. It was the first time in Kyrgyzstan’s history that the prime minister lost his job through a vote of no-confidence. On paper, Isakov does not even hold the nominal title of ex-prime minister. That should have been the ultimate humiliation, but worse was to come.

But how could a party whose leading membership had only recently backed Atambayev as its leader have so swiftly turned on the former president’s protégé and top holdover trump card?

Feliks Kulov, a former premier and member of parliament, said he believes the growing rift between Atambayev and Jeenbekov has created a schism within the party too. The former president has been dealing with strictly organizational party affairs, while Jeenbekov has managed to capture the SDPK’s parliamentary wing.

“You can see it clearly that the majority of the faction in parliament is supporting the new president, although with some issues they are having to grin and bear it. It has to be said that the center of decision-making now lies with Jeenbekov,” Kulov told Eurasianet.

Criminal probes

Things have in recent days taken an even more serious turn as investigators have begun pursuing criminal probes against a couple of top Atambayev allies over major projects that were touted as the ex-president’s pride and joy.

Isakov is feeling the brunt of it. On May 29, the GKNB revealed it is charging him with using his position as a senior presidential administration adviser, in 2013, to sway the process through which a Chinese company was granted a $386 million contract to modernize a power plant in the capital, Bishkek. The security services say the deal was doled out without a tender, in large part through Isakov’s connivance, and that project costs were artificially inflated.

The normally unflappable Isakov, who has been ordered to refrain from travel pending investigations, appeared stunned by the charges.

“They are creating a hype around this person and making him out to be a criminal,” he told reporters, referring to himself in the third person. “My lawyers and I will now work closely on proving my innocence. I am in shock.”

Isakov is exasperated by the accusations being laid at his feet. He said that the power plant contract was handed to TBEA, the Chinese company, as a specific condition for China granting the credit with which to do the work in the first place. It was, essentially, TBEA or nothing, he argues.

Undeterred by such protestations, investigators are now identifying Isakov as the moving force behind the increasingly scandal-ridden $22 million reconstruction of the State History Museum in Bishkek and the building of a $20 million hippodrome for the upcoming Nomad Games. Both projects were started without clear plans and costs are getting out of hand, according to investigators.

Previously, on May 21, the GKNB announced it was charging Kulmatov, the former customs chief, with corruption while serving as mayor of Bishkek, an office he held for two years, up to February 2016. He is accused of redirecting $2 million that had been provided as part of the Chinese power plant loan onto the accounts of the mayor’s office. His office is then said to have used the money to grant a construction contract for a school in a shanty neighborhood on the fringes of Bishkek without going through the process of a tender.

Kulmatov has mocked the idea that building a school could constitute criminal conduct.

“You don’t even need to look for a subtext here. The matter is clear and it seems that I was not to the pleasing [of the new government],” he told reporters.

Kulov, the former premier, meanwhile, allows that these probes may be more about finally tackling high-level corruption than a political witch-hunt as such.

“The public is raising these issues and Jeenbekov is simply not covering up the doings of Atambayev’s associates. And at the same time, he is not using Atambayev’s methods. He is not artificially ratcheting up tension, he is not manipulating public broadcasters to pour dirt on people. In this respect, he is behaving himself quite civilly,” he said.

Atambayev next?

For the time being, Atambayev is protected by the status of immunity afforded to ex-heads of state. But that may not last long.

Emboldened by the change of background music, parliamentarians on May 17 made initial moves toward revoking that immunity. Iskhak Masaliyev, the MP who first made the proposal, said he was motivated by irritation at the fact that Atambayev cannot even be questioned as a witness in the ongoing investigation over the power plant project. In a vote that must have startled the former president, 87 MPs present in parliament voted to approve the motion to discuss stripping his immunity. Only 14 opposed. Many of the supporters of the initiative were from the SDPK.

Political analyst Marat Kazakpayev told Eurasianet that he believes this situation will force Atambayev to succumb to negotiations with Jeenbekov.

“Now there are two centers of decision-making. One is in the hands of the president, who holds the reins of power, say what you might. The other is under Atambayev, who still has a few cadres in the power structures. But if it continues like this, Atambayev will lose. He needs to take the initiative and reach an agreement with the president,” Kazakpayev said.

The right to party

Atambayev’s other potential get-out strategy is to return to more active politicking by mobilizing that section of the SDPK that is still loyal to him for the 2020 parliamentary elections.

The north-south dimension of Kyrgyz politics, however, poses problems on that front. The master stroke of Atambayev’s time in office was that he avoided the mistake made by two deposed ex-presidents, of consolidating too much influence in their regional base. Kurmanbek Bakiyev, for example, who was overthrown in a bloody uprising in April 2010, was opposed by a northern alliance bent on displacing his clannish, southerner-based rule.

Atambayev is a northerner and Jeenbekov a southerner. Their appeal to those respective electorates and informal power groups situated in those respective regions made their front relatively unassailable. But Atambayev will no longer be able to count on the certainty of southern support for the SDPK. The party’s point-man for the south is Asylbek Jeenbekov, the president’s younger brother and the very person frozen out of the SDPK congress in March.

“[The younger Jeenbekov] has all the moral and political right to create his own party. He didn’t leave the SDPK, he was pushed out, and with no justification,” said Kulov. “And [he] did a pretty good job as speaker. There were no MPs who had anything against him. He was straight with everybody and they respected him for that.”

The emerging consensus among the commentariat is that Atambayev seriously misjudged his hand in returning to politics.

“He thought his political influence would remain intact, but that was not going to be possible without having any levers of influence. He should have just left with his conscience intact and not returned to politics,” Kazakpayev said.