Kazakhstan’s August Elections: Who Will Enter the New Parliament?

On July 1, Kazakhstan’s new Constitution will come into force, triggering the dissolution of the current bicameral parliament. According to political observers, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev is expected to sign a decree in early July calling elections to a new unicameral legislature, to be known as the Kurultai. No date has yet been formally announced, but analysts expect the vote to take place in the second half of August, most likely on either August 16 or August 23. On June 1, Kazakhstan officially registered a new political party, Adilet, meaning “Justice,” led by Aybek Dadebay, the former head of Tokayev’s presidential administration. As a result, eight political parties are now officially registered ahead of the election campaign, six of which are currently represented in the lower house of parliament. So far, however, none of the parties has shown significant signs of gearing up for the campaign. “Kazakhstan’s political parties know perfectly well that parliamentary elections will take place in the second half of August, that they will be conducted under a proportional representation system, and that skipping the election is not advisable because it could affect party financing,” political analyst Gaziz Abishev wrote on his Telegram channel. “They could already be actively working to revive their party brands and promote the public figures who will become the faces of the campaign. Yet the passivity is obvious.” In his view, internal party, inter-party, and broader elite-level processes are currently underway, suggesting that some form of political transformation is taking place behind the scenes. The emergence of Adilet appears to have influenced the calculations of Kazakhstan’s political class. The arrival of a second openly pro-presidential party introduces a significant element of uncertainty into a system long dominated by Amanat. Amanat traces its roots to former President Nursultan Nazarbayev’s political machine. Originally known as Otan, or “Fatherland,” it became Nur Otan in 2006 before being rebranded as Amanat following the January 2022 unrest. Former presidential candidate Amirzhan Kosanov believes the creation of Adilet reflects Tokayev’s desire to create political competition within the ruling elite while presenting it internationally as evidence of political pluralism. “Given the executive branch’s influence over election commissions and the largely artificial nature of the party system, the campaign beginning in July will most likely resemble a controlled competition between two principal actors: the ruling Amanat party and the new Adilet party,” Kosanov argued. For critics of the system, the upcoming elections increasingly resemble a contest between two pro-presidential forces. Organizationally, Amanat remains a formidable political machine. It inherited from the Nur Otan era an extensive nationwide network of regional branches and primary organizations embedded in large workplaces and institutions. Adilet, meanwhile, has already secured backing from a wide range of business associations, professional groups, technology organizations, creative-industry bodies, and civic initiatives. Its political council also includes senior executives from some of Kazakhstan’s largest companies, including Qarmet, Kazakhtelecom, and Allur Auto. Despite this, few analysts believe Kazakhstan is moving toward an American-style two-party system. Amanat and Adilet share broadly similar political...

Kazakhstan: Calls for Investigation into Rare Earth Metals Exports

Azat Peruashev, head of the Ak Zhol parliamentary faction, has urged authorities to investigate subsoil users over alleged uncontrolled exports of rare earth metals. Parliamentary Inquiry Peruashev outlined his concerns in a parliamentary request addressed to Kazakhstan’s Anti-Corruption Service chief Askhat Zhumagali and Minister of Industry Ersaiyn Nagaspayev. "Social media posts by former Kazakhmys laboratory assistant Bakyt Adilova allege that the corporation exports ore and copper concentrate without conducting chemical analysis, concealing the presence of valuable and rare earth metals. She claims the company artificially devalues exported resources, harming the national economy to benefit oligarchs," Peruashev stated. He also cited an interview with geologist Bakyt Muratov on Elmedia, in which the expert criticized the absence of laboratory analysis in ore and concentrate exports. Muratov noted that for decades, major mining companies have shipped raw materials abroad for processing, leaving Kazakhstan unaware of the true value of its exports. "We still do not know exactly what we are selling. Complex ores are being exported without proper analysis. No one knows the vast sums of money that have left the country and returned as finished products," Muratov said. The Ak Zhol parliamentary faction is demanding official confirmation or denial of these claims. Lawmakers insist that authorities either prosecute those spreading false information or launch an anti-corruption investigation. Additionally, the party is calling for tighter government oversight of mineral exports. "Kazakhstan holds significant reserves of rare earth metals, including lanthanum, cerium, and yttrium, strategic elements crucial for high-tech industries. Rare earth metals are emerging as the 'new oil' in the global economy, with their availability increasingly influencing global power dynamics. Experts estimate that demand for some of these metals could grow up to 40-fold in the coming years," Peruashev concluded. Response from Kazakhmys In response, Kazakhmys Corporation stated that it does not engage in targeted mining of rare earth metals. However, the company acknowledged that small amounts of rare metals are recovered during acid washing processes. The corporation explained that production waste is processed at Zhezkazganredmet, a state-owned enterprise specializing in the separation and refining of rare metals. Waste from precious metal production is handled by Kazakhmys Progress LLP, which is responsible for refining. “All company operations are strictly regulated by the relevant authorities. We fully support stronger state oversight of mineral exports and are open to dialogue with government agencies. Allegations of concealing rare earth metals or artificially lowering the value of exported raw materials are baseless and do not reflect reality,” Kazakhmys said in a statement. Kazakhmys and the Broader Rare Earth Metals Landscape Kazakhmys was established as a joint stock company in August 1997 and re-registered as a limited liability partnership in January 2005. The company specializes in mining and processing copper ore into cathodes and rods, refining and selling precious metals, and managing by-products from copper production. Kazakhmys ranks as the world’s 20th largest producer of copper in concentrate (271 ktpa) and 12th largest producer of blister and cathode copper (377 ktpa and 365 ktpa, respectively). Its operations include...