AZAL Plane Crash - The Times Of Central Asia

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AZAL Plane Crash

In Azerbaijan, Anger Toward Russia Simmers After Plane Crash Report

Commentators in Azerbaijan have reacted to a preliminary report on the Dec. 25 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines plane with another round of scathing criticism of Russia, which Azerbaijan accuses of accidentally firing on the aircraft from the ground. The report that was released on Tuesday by Kazakhstan, where the passenger plane crashed after diverting from a planned landing in Russia, did not clear up whether Russia had fired on the plane, saying only that objects that were not part of the plane had struck it and caused significant damage. While a full report is in the works, that could take many more months, during which time tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia are likely to stew or escalate unless Azerbaijan gets the full apology and accountability that it demands. Some analysts in Azerbaijan are already fuming about what they characterize as an evasive statement by Russian civil aviation authority Rosaviatsiya about the preliminary report on the crash that killed 38 out of the 67 people on the plane. The Russian statement on Telegram noted that the report “does not contain conclusions about the causes of the incident” and acknowledged that the plane was damaged by external impacts. “However, the report does not indicate that the Kazakh side identified foreign objects inside the aircraft, while the Russian Federation has not yet had the opportunity to examine these elements, as they have not been handed over for expert analysis,” Rosaviatsiya said. The statement also notes that the crew of the Azerbaijan Airlines plane on the Baku-Grozny route “independently” decided to divert to Aktau, Kazakhstan, even though Russian air traffic controllers had proposed other Russian airports for landing. Lastly, it says the pilots of the Embraer 190 aircraft told Russian air traffic controllers that there had been a bird strike and an oxygen cylinder explosion on the plane, theories that have been widely attributed to the pilots’ confusion at the time and have since been almost entirely discredited. “This means that the Russian side is still clinging to the crew's assumptions as a lifeline. While Baku does not accuse Moscow of deliberately downing the aircraft, it is strongly urging Russia to take responsibility,” Samir Veliyev wrote in an analysis on Caliber, a Baku-based news organization. “The situation as it stands today clearly shows that it is becoming increasingly difficult for the Russian side to deny its involvement in the incident. So why drag this out? Baku will not back down from its already stated position, which is based on irrefutable facts,” Veliyev wrote. Another news outlet in Azerbaijan, aze.media, said Russia knew about the investigation results in advance and could have acknowledged its alleged role. “But instead, the Kremlin, as always, chose the ‘we know nothing’ tactic and decided to simply ignore the obvious,” aze.media said in an opinion piece. Numerous aviation and security specialists have said damage to the plane’s fuselage is consistent with shrapnel marks. Russian President Vladimir Putin has apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, in a phone conversation. However, the...

AZAL Plane Crash

“Mayday! Mayday!” Kazakhstan Releases Report on AZAL Plane Crash

A preliminary report on the Dec. 25 crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane in Kazakhstan contains details that could be consistent with widespread assertions that the aircraft was damaged by ground fire during an earlier attempt to land as planned in Russia. But the report, released on Tuesday by Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport, leaves many questions unanswered about the crash that killed 38 out of the 67 people on board the plane and sharpened tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia. [caption id="attachment_28337" align="aligncenter" width="923"] Image: Department for Investigation of Accidents and Incidents in Transport preliminary report[/caption] An investigation is ongoing and a final report will be prepared on the disaster just outside the Kazakh city of Aktau, meaning that more information could emerge on Russia’s alleged culpability in the case. While the preliminary report helps to fill out a picture of the chaos and confusion that unfolded on the Embraer 190 plane on the Baku-Grozny route, it is unlikely to satisfy Azerbaijan, which accused Russia of a coverup and demanded accountability. The report on the politically sensitive case says its purpose is to focus on aviation safety and not to establish anyone’s guilt. Assigning blame could come in criminal cases that were opened by Azerbaijani and Kazakh prosecutors, though holding those responsible to account, especially if they are in Russia, will be a challenge. [caption id="attachment_28338" align="aligncenter" width="851"] Image: Department for Investigation of Accidents and Incidents in Transport preliminary report[/caption] The report says parts of the plane were hit by objects from outside the plane and photos show portions of the fuselage riddled with holes, but the analysis doesn’t confirm that they were the result of missile shrapnel as some security and aviation analysts have said. “The initial inspection of the surviving fragments revealed numerous through and non-through damages of various sizes and shapes in the tail section of the fuselage, vertical stabilizer and stabilizer, elevator and rudder. Similar damages were found on the left engine and left wing of the aircraft, as well as on the units and components of the aircraft. In some places, the damages have a regular rectangular shape,” the report said. Russian President Vladimir Putin has apologized to his Azerbaijani counterpart, Ilham Aliyev, in a phone conversation. However, the Russian leader did not acknowledge that the aircraft had been accidentally hit by Russian fire before diverting to Aktau. Russia has said the area was under attack by Ukrainian drones at the time. Kazakhstan has led the investigation, which includes representatives from Azerbaijan, Russia and Brazil. The Canada-based International Civil Aviation Organization, a United Nations agency that oversees aviation safety, is also involved. The preliminary report provides a picture of the flight and subsequent crash that is consistent with past accounts of survivors and other sources of information, though it also offers gripping detail from the data and cockpit voice recorders that were recovered and analyzed in Brazil, where the plane model is made. At one point, the sound of a boom is recorded. Citing the...

AZAL Plane Crash

Kazakhstan to Release Preliminary Report on Aktau Plane Crash in Coming Days

Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, has announced that a preliminary report on the investigation into the crash of an Azerbaijan Airlines (AZAL) aircraft near Aktau will be published in the coming days. On December 25, 2024, an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by AZAL crashed approximately three kilometers from Aktau airport while attempting an emergency landing. The flight, en route from Baku to the Russian city of Grozny, was carrying 62 passengers and five crew members. Thirty-eight people were killed in the crash. Footage from the crash site shows significant damage to the fuselage, with some reports suggesting a pattern consistent with air defense missile fragment impacts. The aircraft had initially requested permission to land at Grozny airport before abruptly changing course toward Aktau. Among the possible causes under investigation are a missile strike, and electronic system malfunctions due to radio signal suppression in Grozny linked to Russian efforts to repel Ukrainian drone attacks. Initially, the possibility of a bird strike was also mooted. Kazakhstan is leading the investigation under the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO) Convention, as the crash occurred within its territory. Specialists from Azerbaijan, Russia, and Brazil, along with international aviation experts and representatives from Embraer, are involved in the inquiry. “The specialists need time to complete their work, and we will not provide comments until the preliminary report is published. However, I promise that the report will be released in the coming days,” Karabayev said at a press conference in Astana on Tuesday. The investigation is in its final stages, he added, noting that experts from Azerbaijan, Russia, Brazil’s Center for Investigation and Prevention of Aviation Accidents (CENIPA), and ICAO have all contributed. “I hope that in the near future, we will publish a preliminary report on our website,” the minister stated. Karabayev specified that the report will be made available on the website of the Civil Aviation Committee, which operates under the Ministry of Transport. The Brazilian CENIPA has completed its analysis of the aircraft’s black boxes, and the decoded data has been sent to Kazakh authorities. “The conclusions drawn from this analysis, and those published in the final crash report, are the sole responsibility of Kazakhstan’s investigative body,” CENIPA stated. According to ICAO regulations, a preliminary report should be issued within 30 days of an incident. In late January, Kazakhstan’s Deputy Prime Minister, Kanat Bozumbayev, expressed hope that the initial findings would be released by the end of the month, but no report has yet been published. “Specialists need time to complete the work. It is a very complex and meticulous process,” Karabayev reiterated in response to questions about the delay. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, the plane crash has contributed to tensions between Azerbaijan and Russia.

AZAL Plane Crash

Two Weeks After Crash, Russia Closes City Airspace and Azerbaijan Cancels Flight

Azerbaijan Airlines canceled a flight to the southwest Russian city of Kazan on Wednesday after the airspace over the city was closed as a security precaution, Azerbaijan’s state media reported. The cancellation of the Baku-Kazan-Baku flight came two weeks after an Azerbaijan Airlines passenger plane crashed in Kazakhstan after, according to Azerbaijan, the aircraft was accidentally hit by Russian ground fire and diverted from a planned landing in Grozny, Chechnya. Russian President Vladimir Putin has not confirmed the Azerbaijani account, though he apologized and said Russian air defenses were repelling Ukrainian drones over Grozny and two other Russian areas at the time. Azertac, an Azerbaijani state news agency, said the cancellation of the Kazan-bound flight came after Russia’s announcement of its so-called “Kovyor,” or “carpet,” operation, in which airspace over an area is closed temporarily because of a perceived threat. Kazan has previously been targeted by long-range Ukrainian drones. The Kovyor protocol came under scrutiny after an Azerbaijani airliner crashed on Dec. 25 in Aktau, Kazakhstan, killing 38 people and leaving 29 survivors. Without naming Putin, President Ilham Aliyev has harshly criticized Russian officials for alleged attempts to cover up what happened by floating false theories about the cause of the crash and said the Kovyor plan was activated after the plane was shot at, indicating criminal liability. “If there was a threat to Russian airspace, the captain of the plane should have been informed about it immediately. The airspace should have been closed immediately and the plane should have turned back,” Aliyev said, according to APA, another Azerbaijani government news agency. “I should also note that about 10 days before the accident, a similar incident occurred near the city of Grozny. An AZAL plane was turned back halfway. Why was the crew not warned about it this time? Naturally, the investigation will show this.” Kazakhstan is leading the investigation team, which includes officials from Azerbaijan and Russia as well as input from Brazilian technicians who have examined the flight data and cockpit voice recorders from the Brazil-produced Embraer 190 plane. Kazakhstan has said a preliminary report is expected within 30 days of the crash. Azerbaijan Airlines suspended flights to some Russian cities after the crash.

Aktau Plane Crash

Kazakhstan’s High-Stakes Balancing Act in the Aktau Crash Investigation

The Aktau crash of the Azerbaijan Airlines Embraer 190 aircraft, which killed 38 people on 25 December, was a tragic event with significant international repercussions. This devastating accident not only claimed lives but also raised critical questions about aviation safety and the handling of sensitive investigations. As investigators sought to determine its cause, Kazakhstan faced an important decision regarding the handling of the flight recorder. Ultimately, the country chose to transfer the recorder to Brazil, the manufacturer of the aircraft, rather than to the Interstate Aviation Committee (IAC) of the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), as Russia had proposed. This decision reflected both technical and diplomatic considerations, marking a crucial moment in the unfolding investigation. By taking this decision, Kazakhstan adhered to established industry procedures for aviation safety investigations. Such a step highlights the country's commitment to transparency and global norms in aviation. The move is typical of the country's foreign policy under President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, whose long diplomatic experience leads him to emphasize a rules-based approach over political considerations and to act in accord with established procedural norms. This choice ensured that the investigation would follow established international practices, thereby lending credibility to the process and reassuring global aviation stakeholders. This behavior is also in line with Kazakhstan's broader commitment to international law and a rules-based global order. Another notable example of this approach was its endorsement of the principles of sovereignty and territorial integrity through its refusal to recognize Russia’s annexation of Crimea or the independence of the Donbas regions. These decisions were not necessarily easy ones, given Kazakhstan’s economic and security ties with Russia, but they reinforced its commitment to global standards. While some observers might frame decisions like the Aktau recorder transfer as a “snub” to Russia, such characterizations would miss the point. Like Kazakhstan’s refusal to recognize Donbas as independent and its efforts to prevent the flow of military components in violation of Western sanctions, its actions are not meant to be about rejecting one partner in favor of another. Rather, acting in its own autonomous interests, Kazakhstan seeks to "do the right thing," because this maintains a consistent international profile with a steady foreign-policy course grounded in international law and practice. Kazakhstan’s mediation efforts extend beyond formal multilateral forums, showcasing its active engagement in regional and global diplomacy. The country provided a neutral platform for discussions between opposing factions in the conflict over Syria; and it has also worked to ease tensions between Armenia and Azerbaijan, hosting purely bilateral consultations and thus demonstrating its capacity to engage constructively in regional conflicts without taking sides. These efforts are in line with Kazakhstan’s larger foreign-policy strategy to act as a principled and impartial intermediary on the global stage, fostering dialogue and reducing hostilities. Similarly, Kazakhstan’s leadership in the Conference on Interaction and Confidence-Building Measures in Asia (CICA) reflects its dedication to multilateralism and peaceful conflict resolution. Kazakhstan exemplifies the rising middle-power archetype also through its significant contributions to global nuclear non-proliferation. Its foreign policy operates on...

Aktau Plane Crash

Aliyev Takes Aim at Russia in Azerbaijan Airlines Crash

Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev has intensified his criticism of Russia, accusing it of a “cover-up” over the Azerbaijan Airlines plane which crashed near the Kazakh city of Aktau on December 25. During a televised address, Aliyev expressed Azerbaijan’s “surprise, regret, and righteous indignation” over what he described as “absurd” explanations for the crash. Departing from protocol, Aliyev delivered his address in Russian, a poignant choice that heightened the gravity of his message. “I can confidently say that the guilt for the deaths of Azerbaijani citizens in this accident lies with the representatives of the Russian Federation,” Aliyev stated. “We demand justice, we demand punishment of the guilty, we demand complete transparency and humane treatment… If the city of Grozny had taken timely measures to close Russian airspace over its territory, if all the rules of ground services had been observed, and if there had been coordination between the armed forces and civil services of the Russian Federation, then this tragedy would not have happened.” On Monday, Aliyev met with the two surviving flight attendants and the families of other crew members who perished, describing them as “heroes”. The Flight Recorders In a related development, Brazil has concluded its analysis of the black boxes from Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243. The Aeronautical Accidents Investigation and Prevention Center (CENIPA) confirmed that the findings were handed over to Kazakhstan’s Aviation Accident Investigation Department in line with international protocols for aircraft accident investigations. These results will contribute to the final report on the incident. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia (TCA), the incident led the Commission on Aviation Incident Investigation, headed by Kazakhstan’s Minister of Transport, Marat Karabayev, to decide to send the flight recorders to Brazil’s CENIPA. The investigation was conducted by three Brazilian specialists in collaboration with Azerbaijani and Russian experts. Chronology of the Crash The incident occurred on December 25, when an Embraer 190 aircraft operated by Azerbaijan Airlines crashed near Aktau on Kazakhstan’s Caspian Sea coast. The plane was flying between Baku, Azerbaijan, and Grozny, Russia. Of the 67 people on board, 38 were killed, and 29 were injured. The passengers included 37 Azerbaijani citizens, 6 Kazakhs, 3 Kyrgyz, and 16 Russians. On December 26, video footage showing small holes in the fuselage wreckage sparked speculation about possible external damage. Aviation and military analysts suggested the holes might have been caused by air defense systems, given reports from the Chechen authorities about the shooting down of Ukrainian drones in the area. This raised concerns about the potential for misidentification. [caption id="attachment_27352" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Chechen Pantsir Missile Launcher; image: Vitaly V. Kuzmin[/caption] When asked about the possibility of external fire, Kazakh Minister Marat Bozumbayev emphasized that conclusions would only be drawn after all available evidence had been examined. International Collaboration The Azerbaijani government rejected the idea of a Russian-led investigation, opting instead for an international team of experts, including representatives from Embraer. The black boxes were sent to CENIPA on December 29. The crash also prompted a temporary suspension...