The United States, China, Russia, and Europe are pursuing different models of space strategy, ranging from institutional leadership to technological autonomy. At the same time, the number of middle powers that view space as a tool for economic development and the strengthening of sovereignty is growing. In this context, a multi-level system is emerging in which the architecture of near-Earth space is becoming an element of the global balance of power. For Kazakhstan, these changes are of direct importance. The country possesses a unique infrastructure asset, the Baikonur Cosmodrome, and is gradually developing its own satellite and manufacturing capabilities. However, amid the fragmentation of the global space order, the question of strategic choice is becoming increasingly pressing. Will Kazakhstan remain primarily an infrastructure hub, or will it build a sustainable national model for participation in the evolving space architecture? Models of Space Strategies The United States remains the world’s leading space power in terms of funding and launch frequency. Total government space spending, including allocations for NASA, the U.S. Space Force, and intelligence programmes, reached a record $79.7 billion in 2024 out of approximately $135 billion in global government space spending. A defining feature of the U.S. model is the close integration between government institutions and the private sector. Companies such as SpaceX and Blue Origin have become integral to national strategy, helping to reduce launch costs and accelerate innovation. A central component of the current phase is the Artemis lunar programme. The Artemis II mission is planned to conduct a crewed flyby of the Moon, while Artemis III is intended to return humans to the lunar surface using a landing system being developed by SpaceX. China’s space strategy is built on the concept of long-term technological sovereignty and the phased expansion of its presence in space. Deployment began in 2021, and the three-module Tiangong space station was completed in 2022. Chinese astronauts now conduct scientific experiments and test technologies for long-duration missions in low Earth orbit. In lunar exploration, China is implementing a step-by-step research programme that includes returning soil samples and advancing plans for an international lunar research station. The Tianwen-1 Mars mission, which included the landing of the Zhurong rover, demonstrated the country’s capacity to carry out complex interplanetary operations independently. Amid sanctions pressure and reduced international cooperation, Russia’s space strategy is focused on ensuring independent access to space, maintaining orbital infrastructure, and preserving key capabilities in human spaceflight. Despite ongoing uncertainty over its long-term involvement, Russia continues to participate in the International Space Station programme, conducting regular crewed launches and sending Progress cargo spacecraft. At the same time, work is underway on the planned Russian Orbital Station (ROS), with initial deployment planned for the late 2020s. The project is viewed as an important step in preparing for future missions, including potential lunar initiatives. Europe’s space strategy emphasises strategic autonomy alongside broad international cooperation. In addition to traditional Ariane and Vega launch vehicles, European countries are investing in commercial startups such as Isar Aerospace and Orbex, which...
