Will Direct Flights from Kazakhstan to the U.S. Become a Reality?

Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan spent the first thirty years of independence embroiled in rivalries rooted in the Soviet-era. However, the two countries have since moved towards cooperation, and both Tashkent and Astana have tasted success. One area in which Uzbekistan has far surpassed Kazakhstan in direct air routes to key countries. From Tashkent, one can even fly to New York, which is still a dream for Kazakhstanis who want to reach the U.S. via direct flights. As previously reported by TCA, however, at the end of July, the authorities in Kazakhstan stated that the first B787 “Dreamliner” will be delivered in late 2025, bringing Astana’s long-held goal of direct flights to the United States by the end of 2025 a step closer. But will this dream become a reality? In January 2022, the Parliament of Kazakhstan adopted the draft law "On ratification of the agreement between the Government of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Government of the United States of America on Air Transport". The agreement itself was signed back on December 30, 2019,  when it referenced the flight route Nur-Sultan - New York. Then Minister of Industry and Infrastructure Development (MIID), Kairbek Uskenbayev said that a joint commission of representatives of American airlines had reviewed the airports of the capital and Almaty, and concluded that they met international standards. Earlier, the MIID had specified that under the "Open Skies" regime, the fifth freedom of the air would allow Kazakhstan's airlines to bring passengers to the United States, then pick up passengers there and transport them to a third country, that is, to fly in transit through the United States. Concerning cargo, the agreement provided a seventh degree of freedom, which also allows a Kazakh airline to transport cargo from the U.S. to Canada or the United Kingdom without additional authorization. U.S. companies in Kazakhstan would have similar rights. At a meeting held in 2022, which was attended by the Director General of the Aviation Administration, Catalin Radu, and the Minister of Industry and Infrastructural Development of Kazakhstan, Kairbek Uskenbayev, it was stated that work has been underway since the beginning of 2022 to increase technical capacity in preparation for the upcoming FAA International Aviation Safety Assessment (IASA) into launching direct flights between Kazakhstan and the United States. According to Talgat Lastayev, the Civil Aviation Committee Chairman, Kazakhstan had raised its flight safety assurance level to 84%, 15% above the global average. Plans for the capital's airport changed, however. On the sidelines of a government event in May 2023, when asked by journalists when flights to New York was expected to commence, Peter Foster, head of Air Astana, Kazakhstan's largest airline, responded stating, "Flights are planned to begin by 2025. There is a small correction to be made; the flights will be from Almaty. The Almaty - New York route will at the initial stage be three times a week, with a further increase to 5 flights a week, and if there is good performance, daily flights. There will be no...