Caspian Pipeline Consortium - The Times Of Central Asia

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Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Black Sea Risks Elevate Azerbaijan and Turkey in Kazakhstan’s Export Strategy

Bloomberg reported on August 8 that the Turkish authorities were withholding or delaying transit permission for some vessels bound through the Dardanelles for Novorossiysk. Some applicants were reportedly told that permits were not being issued, while others faced additional review. The practice appeared selective: vessels bound for some other Black Sea destinations continued to transit, while some Ukraine-bound vessels were also reportedly affected. On August 9, however, Turkish officials told Reuters that shipping through the Turkish Straits was proceeding smoothly and described the actions as temporary security measures rather than an ongoing restriction. The reported restrictions followed a sharp increase in attacks on commercial shipping around the Black Sea, including Turkish-linked vessels near Novorossiysk. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry expressed concern after attacks on the Turkish-owned Yaşar and Nadezhda and called on Russia and Ukraine to ensure navigational safety. Novorossiysk is especially important for Kazakhstan, because the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) terminal there handles the overwhelming majority of its oil exports. Although the CPC pipeline itself remains operational, the episode showed how quickly traffic serving Kazakhstan’s principal oil-export outlet could face an additional constraint. The events shed light on an export strategy Kazakhstan began developing several years before the current problems. Tokayev’s July 2022 instructions addressed both oil-export diversification through the Trans-Caspian route and alternative transport chains for other cargo. In particular, he called for greater use of Kazakhstan’s Caspian ports and the development of alternative railway routes. Later that year, KazMunayGas (KMG) and SOCAR established a framework for moving Kazakhstani oil from Aktau across the Caspian Sea and onward through the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline, initially for up to 1.5 million tons annually. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey also adopted a 2022–2027 roadmap to remove bottlenecks along the Middle Corridor. Kazakhstan continued to develop transport links with Russia and China as it expanded Trans-Caspian routes through Azerbaijan, Georgia, and Turkey. The strategy extended Kazakhstan’s longstanding geopolitical multi-vector policy, which balances relations with partners in multiple directions, into the geoeconomic sphere. Tokayev made the combination explicit in his 2023 State of the Nation address. Relations with Turkey had meanwhile been elevated to an enhanced strategic partnership in May 2022, including transport cooperation and the Baku–Tbilisi–Kars railway. Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan deepened their strategic and allied cooperation later that year, likewise emphasizing transport and logistics. Closer ties with Azerbaijan and Turkey widened Kazakhstan’s options without displacing established routes through Russia. The CPC pipeline remains so dominant in Kazakhstan’s oil exports that no other existing route approaches its present scale. Of the 78.7 million tons of oil that Kazakhstan exported in 2025, the Energy Ministry reported the volume moving through the CPC pipeline at 64.8 million tons (the CPC itself reported about 63 million tons), meaning that more than four-fifths of Kazakhstan’s exported oil depended on the CPC system. Kazakhstan moved only about 1.4 million tons through the Aktau–Baku–Ceyhan (ABC) route in 2024, and about 1.3 million tons in 2025. Diversification cannot at present mean replacing CPC. The Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline gives Kazakhstani oil a westbound egress...

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

U.S. Reportedly Secures Ukrainian Pledge to Avoid Strikes on CPC Infrastructure

Turkey has begun restricting some commercial vessels from entering the Black Sea on voyages to Novorossiysk, adding a potential new obstacle to Kazakhstan’s oil exports through the Caspian Pipeline Consortium amid reports that Ukraine has agreed to spare CPC infrastructure and qualifying non-Russian tankers from attack. Turkey’s Directorate-General of Coastal Safety has told multiple ships bound for Novorossiysk that it is not currently issuing transit permits for those voyages or needs more time to review applications through the Dardanelles. The authorities have not publicly explained the measure. Some vessels were told the restriction also applied to ships heading to Ukraine, while traffic bound for Bulgarian and Turkish ports continued. There is no confirmation that any tanker scheduled to load Kazakh crude at the CPC terminal has been denied passage. The measure nevertheless comes at a difficult point for CPC, where repeated attacks and stoppages have already made some shipowners reluctant to accept voyages to the terminal near Novorossiysk. On August 7, Reuters reported that CPC loadings fell more than 20% behind schedule in July, to around 1.2 million to 1.3 million barrels per day. That removed about 400,000 barrels a day of CPC Blend from the international market. Loadings averaged roughly 1.1 million to 1.2 million barrels per day in the first week of August, while Kazakhstan’s oil production has fallen 14% from June. CPC normally handles around 1.5 million to 1.7 million barrels per day and carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports. Four tankers completed loading after the July 30 attacks, but operations remained intermittent as tanker availability and security concerns continued to limit the recovery. The Turkish restrictions emerged on the same day as a potentially important change in the security picture around CPC. According to an unnamed U.S. government official cited by Bloomberg, Ukraine has agreed not to target CPC infrastructure or qualifying non-Russian vessels bound for the terminal, provided they are not under Ukrainian sanctions, are not carrying Russian cargo, and are not owned by Russian individuals or entities. Ukraine has also established points of contact through which commercial shippers can provide vessel information and seek safe passage. The arrangement follows months of U.S. pressure over the exposure of Kazakhstan-origin crude and Western commercial interests at CPC. During a July 29 call, U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Yermek Kosherbayev discussed the need for “reliable and uninterrupted” exports of Kazakhstan-origin oil through the system. The commitment could reduce one source of risk for ships serving CPC, but it does not immediately resolve the commercial disruption. Previous attempts by companies to identify vessels that should not be targeted did not prevent all attacks, while war-risk insurance and charter costs have risen sharply. Ankara has become increasingly vocal as attacks spread across the Black Sea. Turkey’s Foreign Ministry said the Turkish-owned civilian vessels Yaşar and Nadezhda were attacked by drones on August 3 after leaving Novorossiysk, injuring crew members including Turkish citizens. It warned that further escalation could have broader consequences, including...

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Shipowners Pull Back from CPC as Export Recovery Falters

The Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea export operations have become intermittent once again following a brief restart. Eight trading sources told Reuters that CPC repeatedly suspended operations this week and was closed again on August 5, as safety concerns made shipowners reluctant to accept CPC voyages. Four tankers completed loading after the July 30 attacks, and two had left the terminal area by early this week. Those departures confirmed that cargo could still move, but they did not show that the terminal had returned to normal. Russian transport group FESCO suspended operations in the area on August 4, while one CPC Blend seller needed several attempts to secure a vessel for a recent cargo. CPC declined to comment. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry had said on August 1 that a complete shutdown was not under consideration and the situation was under control. A Brief Restart The latest disruption followed two attacks near the terminal on July 30. NISSOS SIFNOS was struck while loading Tengizchevroil crude at single-point mooring SPM-3. MARATHI was hit while waiting about six nautical miles offshore. Both crews were unharmed, fires were extinguished, and no pollution was reported. Chevron told The Times of Central Asia at the time that it was “aware of reports of an incident involving a vessel loading at Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) facilities near Novorossiysk. The safety of personnel, the protection of the environment and integrity of assets are our top priorities.” CPC stopped oil loading after the event, but said its pipeline facilities were operating normally. On July 31, Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said that oil was flowing and tankers were loading. By August 3, four tankers had completed loading at the terminal; two had departed, while at least three more remained nearby. Exports had resumed briefly, but the restart proved fragile. The Energy Ministry said CPC was receiving 100,000 metric tons of crude a day on August 1, equal to about 730,000 barrels per day. “The CPC continues to receive oil from shippers, while storage tanks are being filled,” the ministry said. It added that higher intake depended on tankers arriving on time. The 1,511-kilometer pipeline can continue moving crude into terminal storage while maritime exports slow or stop. If the tanks fill, CPC may have to restrict intake, forcing producers in Kazakhstan to cut output. Freight costs reflected the risk. The daily charter rate for a tanker calling at CPC reached $338,000 by the end of last week, almost double the level from a month earlier. August-loading CPC Blend cargoes were offered this week at nearly $4 a barrel below Brent. The grade had traded at a premium only a few weeks earlier. War-risk insurance for calls at Black Sea terminals has risen to as much as 2% of a vessel’s value, from around 1% two weeks earlier, according to insurance sources. Production Damage Spreads Preliminary operational data put Kazakhstan’s crude oil and gas condensate production for July at 7.6 million metric tons, or about 1.85 million barrels per day. That was...

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Four Tankers Load at CPC as Tengizchevroil Plans Larger Batumi Shipments

Four tankers have completed loading Kazakh crude at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium’s Black Sea terminal following the July 30 attacks, providing vessel-tracking confirmation that shipments restarted. Two have left the terminal area, while at least three more were waiting nearby, Bloomberg reported. Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said on July 31 that the pipeline was flowing and ships were being loaded. CPC has not issued a detailed notice covering the restart, but the completed cargoes confirm that tanker loading resumed, though throughput remains below normal. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said CPC was receiving 100,000 metric tons of crude a day as of August 1, equivalent to about 730,000 barrels per day, after temporarily suspending its pipeline system on July 31. “The CPC continues to receive oil from shippers, while storage tanks are being filled,” the ministry said. It added that further increases would depend on tankers arriving on time for loading at the marine terminal. The offshore facility is technically capable of handling the volumes recorded before the attacks, but exports still depend on vessel availability and weather conditions. The daily charter rate for a tanker calling at the terminal reached $338,000 by the end of last week, nearly double its level a month earlier, according to Baltic Exchange data. Some shipowners were avoiding the terminal after repeated attacks on vessels loading or waiting nearby. An industry source familiar with operational data told Reuters that national oil and gas condensate output averaged about 1.85 million barrels per day in July, down 14% from 2.16 million barrels per day in June. Tengiz output fell 18% month on month, while Kashagan declined 25% and Karachaganak fell 18%, the source said. Tengiz was producing about 454,000 barrels per day on July 31, compared with a June average of 961,000 barrels per day. The Energy Ministry and the field operators had not confirmed those preliminary figures. CPC carries more than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports and handles most production from Tengiz, Kashagan, and Karachaganak. The pipeline runs about 1,510 kilometers from western Kazakhstan through Russia to the terminal near Novorossiysk. Russia holds 31% of the consortium, while Kazakhstan holds 20.75%. Chevron owns 15%, and ExxonMobil holds 7.5%. Tengizchevroil is also expanding a smaller alternative route. The Chevron-led venture plans to send about 100,000 metric tons of Tengiz crude by rail to Georgia’s Batumi oil port terminal in August, Reuters reported, citing two industry sources. About 20,000 tons had moved through Batumi from the start of July, marking the first shipments on the route since March. The planned volume for August is equivalent to roughly 24,000 barrels per day, five times the July total, but small beside Tengiz’s normal output and the volumes CPC can carry. Batumi cannot replace the pipeline, though it provides an additional outlet if security problems again slow tanker arrivals near Novorossiysk. On August 3, the cargo ship Nadezhda was hit by a drone about 20 nautical miles from Novorossiysk, seriously injuring three crew members. The vessel was not reported to be carrying...

OPEC

Kazakhstan OPEC+ Oil Production Target Rises After Output Agreement

Kazakhstan's OPEC+ crude oil production target will rise by 10,000 barrels per day in September to 1.628 million barrels per day after seven producers agreed to increase their combined target by 188,000 barrels per day. The decision completes the gradual restoration of 1.65 million barrels per day of production withheld under voluntary cuts announced in April 2023. Following a virtual meeting on August 2, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman agreed to the latest adjustment. The United Arab Emirates was part of the original group implementing the voluntary cuts but left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, reducing the group making the monthly decisions from eight countries to seven. OPEC's rounded country allocations raise the targets of Saudi Arabia and Russia by 62,000 barrels per day each, Iraq by 26,000, Kuwait by 16,000, Kazakhstan by 10,000, Algeria by 6,000, and Oman by 5,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ said the adjustment would allow participating countries to accelerate compensation for previous overproduction. It does not cancel Kazakhstan's obligation to offset all excess volumes produced since January 2024 by producing below its applicable targets in future months. Kazakhstan has faced sustained pressure within OPEC+ after repeatedly producing above its agreed limits. The expansion of the Tengiz oilfield has pushed national output to record levels, while Astana has repeatedly said it intends to meet its compensation commitments. Reuters reported that successive OPEC+ increases this year have remained largely on paper because export disruptions have constrained supply from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Sources had indicated that the group could pause further increases in the fourth quarter, although the August 2 statement made no commitment on production policy for the final three months of 2026. Recent disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium provide an immediate limit on what Kazakhstan's higher target may mean. The Times of Central Asia reported on August 3 that tankers were loading and Kazakhstan had restored crude intake after attacks near CPC's Black Sea terminal, but the available statements did not establish a full return to planned export volumes. CPC handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan's crude exports, so renewed loading restrictions could again force producers to cut output regardless of the higher quota. OPEC+ is also reviewing members' production capacity before setting the baselines that will apply in 2027. The seven producers will meet again on September 6 to assess market conditions and decide whether to make further changes.

Caspian Pipeline Consortium

Chevron Says CPC Is Loading Tankers as Kazakhstan Restores Oil Intake

Chevron CEO Mike Wirth said that oil was flowing through the CPC pipeline and tankers were being loaded on July 31, one day after two vessels were attacked near its Black Sea terminal. Kazakhstan’s Energy Ministry said intake reached 100,000 metric tons a day from August 1 and rejected reports of a complete shutdown. “The pipeline is flowing. We’ve been loading ships this week,” Wirth said during Chevron’s second-quarter earnings call. He said two of CPC’s three single-point moorings were in service. The third was undergoing refurbishment and was expected to return during the third quarter. The ministry said CPC temporarily suspended pipeline system operations on July 31 but continued receiving crude and filling storage tanks. A complete shutdown “is not being considered,” it said. Further increases would depend on tankers arriving for loading near Novorossiysk. The two statements indicate that loadings restarted quickly after the July 30 attacks, but do not establish a full return to planned export volumes. CPC can receive crude while storage space remains available, but if tanker loadings fall behind, storage fills and producers must cut output as they did in late July. On August 2, OPEC+ raised Kazakhstan’s September target by 10,000 barrels per day to 1.628 million barrels. The increase formed part of a combined 188,000-barrel-per-day rise for Kazakhstan and six other producers. The group said countries that had exceeded their quotas since January 2024 would make up for the excess by producing less in future months. A separate OPEC+ monitoring committee, which includes Kazakhstan, stressed the “critical importance” of safeguarding international maritime routes and expressed concern about attacks on energy infrastructure. Its statement did not name CPC or the Black Sea incidents. For Kazakhstan, the higher quota may have little immediate effect if export flows remain constrained. Reuters has reported that OPEC+ may pause further increases after September while it reviews production capacity for quota baselines which will apply in 2027. The immediate risk is a repeat of late July, when disrupted loadings filled storage and forced sharp production cuts at Tengiz and other major fields. CPC loadings had resumed on July 27 after a week-long suspension. Three days later, two more tankers were attacked near the terminal. NISSOS SIFNOS was struck while loading Tengizchevroil crude at the SPM-3 offshore mooring, while MARATHI was hit while waiting for a berth about six nautical miles offshore. Both fires were extinguished, and no injuries to the crews or pollution were reported. Neither CPC nor Kazakhstan publicly identified an attacker. Ukraine’s drone forces later said they had struck four Russian tankers in the Black and Azov seas, but did not name the vessels or locations. The earlier stoppage had already demonstrated how swiftly export disruption can reach Kazakhstan’s oilfields. National oil and gas condensate production fell to about one million barrels per day on July 26, less than half the June average of 2.16 million barrels per day. CPC runs for about 1,510 kilometers from western Kazakhstan through Russia to the Black Sea. It handles...