Shrinking Caspian Sea Raises the Cost of the Middle Corridor

The falling level of the Caspian Sea is becoming an economic problem for the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor. Kazakhstan and other countries in the region are expanding ports and counting on growing freight traffic between China and Europe, but shallower waters are already forcing vessels to reduce their loads and ports to spend tens of millions of dollars on dredging and berth reconstruction. The scale of the problem was illustrated on September 8 by Alakbar Azizli, Director of Sustainability and Emissions Management at Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company (ASCO). Speaking at Baku Climate Action Week, he said one of the company’s ferries can now carry only 80% of a full cargo load from Kazakhstan. “This means 20% less cargo is transported,” Azizli said. According to him, vessels face similar restrictions in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan’s Port of Alat. For now, the necessary depths are being maintained through dredging. But there are limits to how much dredging can be done around berths without risking damage to the structures. If the sea continues to retreat, Azizli said ports may eventually have to extend their berths so vessels can reach them at lower water levels. Vessels Are Losing Part of Their Cargo Capacity The Caspian is one of the most complex sections of the Middle Corridor. Freight from China travels by rail through Kazakhstan, is transferred to vessels at Aktau or Kuryk, crosses the sea to Azerbaijan, and is then transferred back onto rail. Every transfer adds cost and time. Falling sea levels introduce an additional restriction: vessel draft, or how deep a loaded vessel sits in the water. According to the Caspian Policy Center, some vessels on the Caspian can now be loaded to only 75–80% of capacity. At Aktau, re-berthing a grain vessel can cost around $2,200, while annual dredging expenses have been estimated at roughly $880,000. A 20% reduction in cargo load means more voyages are needed to move the same volume of goods. Fuel, crew, and port-handling costs increase, while the effective capacity of the fleet declines. The problem is emerging just as traffic along the corridor is expanding rapidly. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle Corridor has gained additional importance as a China-Europe route that bypasses Russia. Freight volumes on the TITR increased from less than 1 million tons annually at the beginning of the decade to more than 4.5 million tons in 2024. Kazakhstan plans to raise the corridor’s capacity to 10 million tons a year by 2028. In the first five months of 2026, container traffic between China and Europe along the route increased by another 30%. Growing freight volumes require new terminals, rail capacity, and vessels. At the same time, part of the investment has to be diverted simply to maintain existing fleet access to ports. Aktau and Kuryk Deepen Their Waters Large-scale dredging has already been completed at Kuryk. More than 1.7 million cubic meters of soil were removed from the port waters, turning basin, and access channel, increasing the...