Middle Corridor Debate Shifts From Geopolitics to Commercial Viability

For several years, interest in the Middle Corridor has risen sharply amid the war in Ukraine, tensions around Iran, sanctions, instability on maritime routes, and governments’ efforts to diversify supply chains. The route runs through Central Asia, the Caspian Sea, and the South Caucasus. The way the issue is framed is now changing. The debate over whether this route is needed is moving into the background. A more important question is whether the Middle Corridor can develop from a politically attractive alternative into a sustainable transport and economic system that businesses will use not because of geopolitical circumstances, but because it is competitive. In this context, the 7th Caspian Business Forum, held in New York on September 22 and organized by the Caspian Policy Center (CPC), provided a useful snapshot of this shift. Representatives of the United States, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Turkey, and major businesses took part. The discussions focused on the Middle Corridor, the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), energy, critical minerals, and attracting private capital. Freight volumes on the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route rose from 0.8 million tons to 4.5 million tons in the seven years to 2025, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Transport. The route carried about 77,000 twenty-foot equivalent units of containerized cargo in 2025, and Kazakhstan aims to raise that total to 300,000 by 2029. These volumes are substantial, but they show the limits of the Middle Corridor’s current capacity. It has not yet become a replacement for all traditional overland routes between China and Europe. The World Bank has noted that the Middle Corridor is more than a transit bridge between China and the European Union (EU). Growth in trade among the countries along the route, as well as their trade with Europe, could be equally important. With the necessary investment and organizational reforms, it estimates, trade flows could triple and transport times could roughly halve by 2030. The route passes through several countries, crosses the Caspian Sea, requires transfers between different modes of transport, and depends on coordination among railway operators, ports, customs services, and tariff policies. A study of transport connectivity between Europe and Central Asia by the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development, at the request of the European Commission, identified 33 priority investment needs in physical infrastructure and seven soft-connectivity measures, ranging from the digitalization of transport documents to the harmonization of tariffs, customs, and border procedures. The CPC forum addressed these issues as well. CPC President Efgan Nifti put it this way: “For the Corridor to reach its full potential, it must increasingly function as one integrated system – with harmonized border procedures, coordinated ports and railways, and digitalized documentation.” Kazakhstan’s position reflects this approach. The country’s presidential representative for negotiations with the United States, Erzhan Kazykhan, called the Middle Corridor a “strategic investment in the future” connecting Kazakhstan with the South Caucasus, Turkey, and Europe. He said Astana views TRIPP as a logical extension of the system that could shorten the route to European markets...

Shrinking Caspian Sea Raises the Cost of the Middle Corridor

The falling level of the Caspian Sea is becoming an economic problem for the Trans-Caspian International Transport Route (TITR), or Middle Corridor. Kazakhstan and other countries in the region are expanding ports and counting on growing freight traffic between China and Europe, but shallower waters are already forcing vessels to reduce their loads and ports to spend tens of millions of dollars on dredging and berth reconstruction. The scale of the problem was illustrated on September 8 by Alakbar Azizli, Director of Sustainability and Emissions Management at Azerbaijan Caspian Shipping Company (ASCO). Speaking at Baku Climate Action Week, he said one of the company’s ferries can now carry only 80% of a full cargo load from Kazakhstan. “This means 20% less cargo is transported,” Azizli said. According to him, vessels face similar restrictions in Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan’s Port of Alat. For now, the necessary depths are being maintained through dredging. But there are limits to how much dredging can be done around berths without risking damage to the structures. If the sea continues to retreat, Azizli said ports may eventually have to extend their berths so vessels can reach them at lower water levels. Vessels Are Losing Part of Their Cargo Capacity The Caspian is one of the most complex sections of the Middle Corridor. Freight from China travels by rail through Kazakhstan, is transferred to vessels at Aktau or Kuryk, crosses the sea to Azerbaijan, and is then transferred back onto rail. Every transfer adds cost and time. Falling sea levels introduce an additional restriction: vessel draft, or how deep a loaded vessel sits in the water. According to the Caspian Policy Center, some vessels on the Caspian can now be loaded to only 75–80% of capacity. At Aktau, re-berthing a grain vessel can cost around $2,200, while annual dredging expenses have been estimated at roughly $880,000. A 20% reduction in cargo load means more voyages are needed to move the same volume of goods. Fuel, crew, and port-handling costs increase, while the effective capacity of the fleet declines. The problem is emerging just as traffic along the corridor is expanding rapidly. Since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the Middle Corridor has gained additional importance as a China-Europe route that bypasses Russia. Freight volumes on the TITR increased from less than 1 million tons annually at the beginning of the decade to more than 4.5 million tons in 2024. Kazakhstan plans to raise the corridor’s capacity to 10 million tons a year by 2028. In the first five months of 2026, container traffic between China and Europe along the route increased by another 30%. Growing freight volumes require new terminals, rail capacity, and vessels. At the same time, part of the investment has to be diverted simply to maintain existing fleet access to ports. Aktau and Kuryk Deepen Their Waters Large-scale dredging has already been completed at Kuryk. More than 1.7 million cubic meters of soil were removed from the port waters, turning basin, and access channel, increasing the...