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Afghanistan

Coordination Instead of Declarations: Astana Hosts Meeting of Regional Contact Group on Afghanistan

On Monday, Astana hosted an extraordinary meeting of the Regional Contact Group of Special Representatives of Central Asian Countries on Afghanistan, with delegations from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan in attendance. The agenda focused on trade and economic cooperation with Afghanistan, including joint projects, investment protection, transit tariff policy, and the development of transport corridors through Afghan territory. The establishment of the group represents the practical implementation of agreements reached at the Sixth Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia, held in Astana in August 2024, and reflected in the Roadmap for Regional Cooperation for 2025-2027. The first meeting of the Contact Group took place on August 26 last year in Tashkent. As noted by Erkin Tukumov, Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan for Afghanistan, Astana is interested in a constructive exchange of views and in identifying practical solutions to pressing issues of cooperation with Afghanistan. In recent years, Kazakhstan has consistently kept Afghanistan among its foreign policy priorities, avoiding rhetorical declarations in favor of a measured and systematic approach. President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev has paid particular attention to Afghanistan since the change of power in Kabul in 2021. In the first weeks after the Taliban assumed control, Astana began articulating its position on international platforms. One of the key statements was Tokayev’s address at the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit in Dushanbe on September 17, 2021. He advanced a thesis that has since been reiterated in various formats: Afghanistan should be viewed not only as a source of risk but also as a potential driver of regional development, provided that stability and economic recovery are achieved. This position was further elaborated days later at the United Nations General Assembly. At that time, Kazakhstan was among the first to emphasize the need for inclusiveness in Afghanistan’s future political system, not as an abstract requirement, but as a practical condition for stability. Another significant step was the creation last year of the post of Special Representative of the President for Afghanistan, to which Tukumov was appointed. This role goes beyond that of an interdepartmental coordinator: as a direct representative of the head of state, it elevates the Afghan portfolio to the level of strategic priority. The establishment of such a position signals a transition from a situational response to a more systematic policy. The Astana meeting confirmed the intention of regional countries to deepen cooperation through a regular platform capable of coordinating actions and presenting them externally in a consolidated manner. Some external observers suggest that Central Asian countries are only now beginning to develop a common position on Afghanistan. However, that position has largely taken shape in recent years. The current task is not to formulate it, but to coordinate it more precisely. The meeting in Astana demonstrated that, for Central Asian countries, the primary concern is not the nature of the regime in Kabul, but Afghanistan’s capacity to function as a predictable economic partner and responsible participant in international relations. For the region, it is essential that...

Central Asian politics

The “Central Asia 2030” Roundtable in Astana: From External Interest to Regional Choice

Discussions about Central Asia’s long-term strategic future are increasingly shifting from a focus on external attention to one of growing regional agency. On Monday, Astana International University hosted the first roundtable in the series Central Asia 2030: Strategic Horizons and Regional Choices. Speakers included Andrew D’Anieri, Deputy Director of the Atlantic Council’s Eurasia Center; Yerkin Tukumov, Special Representative of the President of Kazakhstan; Ambassador-at-Large Zulfiya Suleimenova; and Dauren Aben, Deputy Director of the Kazakhstan Institute for Strategic Studies under the President of Kazakhstan. Pragmatism, Regional Choice, and the Logic of the “Grand Bargain” In his remarks, Andrew D’Anieri emphasized that Central Asia is increasingly viewed in the U.S. not as a peripheral zone but as an independent strategic partner. He noted that “environmental, water, and climate issues considered within a regional framework are fully supported by the U.S.” However, he added that “long-term commercial and investment projects are impossible without long-term stability, which in turn requires coordination between neighbors, engagement on sensitive issues, and pragmatic regional cooperation.” D’Anieri also pointed to Afghanistan as “an integral part of regional logic,” and described formats such as C5+1 as evidence of Central Asia’s growing subjectivity. He highlighted the first-ever C5+1 summit at the presidential level in Washington as a landmark event, especially under the administration of Donald Trump, known for its preference for bilateral over multilateral formats. Trump and the Possibility of a Visit: Only with a “Big Deal” When asked whether a visit by President Trump to Central Asia is realistic, D’Anieri offered a candid assessment: “Such a visit is only possible if there is a large, symbolically and economically significant deal.” Whether in aviation, technology, or infrastructure, these high-visibility projects are typically what draw Trump’s engagement. He added that “the region has work to do in developing a package of initiatives that could interest the U.S. president and justify a high-level visit.” Potential areas include mining, transport, and logistics. Reframing Afghanistan’s Role in the Region Special Representative Yerkin Tukumov focused on the importance of reframing the region’s relationship with Afghanistan. For too long, he said, Afghanistan has been viewed primarily “through the prism of security threats,” resulting in a narrow and often misleading approach. Tukumov argued for a broader, more pragmatic view that considers economic, humanitarian, and cross-border dimensions. He described the C5+1 format not as a replacement for bilateral diplomacy, but as “an additional level of coordination where Central Asia can speak with a more consolidated voice without losing national autonomy in foreign policy.” He stressed the need to move beyond “ideological and declarative approaches,” toward practical, interest-based mechanisms of cooperation. Ecology, Water, and the Case for a Global Water Agency Ambassador-at-Large Zulfiya Suleimenova addressed the strategic urgency of regional coordination on water and climate. She emphasized that “water issues are transboundary in nature,” and that efforts to resolve them solely within national frameworks are bound to fall short. “Regional coordination in Central Asia is not a political slogan, but a functional necessity,” she said. Suleimenova argued that jointly promoting...

Regional integration

Central Asian Leaders Welcome Azerbaijan’s Accession at Tashkent Summit

The leaders of Central Asia convened in Tashkent on November 16 for a high-level Consultative Meeting, marking a significant step toward deeper regional integration. The summit welcomed Azerbaijan as a full participant and endorsed a roadmap to formalize cooperation in trade, infrastructure, security, and water management. Hosted by Uzbekistan’s President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, the summit brought together the presidents of Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, alongside a United Nations representative. Ahead of the meeting, Tashkent’s central streets were adorned with national flags and floral installations, underscoring the political and symbolic significance the Uzbek government placed on the event. Mirziyoyev hailed Azerbaijan’s accession as “a truly historic day,” as the country became a full member of the Consultative Meeting of the Heads of State of Central Asia. He proposed forming a “Community of Central Asia,” establishing a rotating Secretariat, appointing special presidential envoys for coordination, and creating a Council of Elders to promote cultural and humanitarian dialogue. [caption id="attachment_39410" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: president.uz[/caption] Regional Economic and Connectivity Agenda Economic cooperation dominated the multilateral agenda. Leaders agreed to develop a Comprehensive Regional Program for Trade and Economic Cooperation through 2035 and to draft a Declaration on a Common Investment Space. “In essence, we will build a strong bridge between Central Asia and the South Caucasus and pave the way for the formation of a single space of cooperation, which will undoubtedly strengthen the strategic interconnectedness and stability of both regions,” said Mirziyoyev. Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev also highlighted deepening bilateral ties with Uzbekistan. Trade between the two countries has reached $4 billion in 2025, with plans to increase it to $10 billion through expanded industrial cooperation and import substitution. Over 6,500 joint enterprises now operate between the two countries, with new projects worth more than $8 billion under development. Several initiatives, such as the Silkway Central Asia logistics center, new industrial facilities, and cultural programs, were launched in Tashkent during the visit. [caption id="attachment_39411" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Image: president.uz[/caption] Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon met with Mirziyoyev on the sidelines of the summit. The two leaders noted the steady growth in political dialogue and agreed to expand cooperation in energy, industry, agriculture, and innovation. Bilateral trade surpassed $440 million in the first nine months of 2025. They also discussed regional security, including collaboration against terrorism, extremism, cybercrime, and drug trafficking. Security, Water, and Cultural Cooperation To advance regional integration, Tashkent also hosted the first meeting of the Council of Ministers of Trade and Investment of Central Asian countries and Azerbaijan on November 13. Ministers discussed boosting trade, investment, and industrial cooperation, with the goal of increasing regional trade turnover to $20 billion. Plans were also made to develop joint production platforms under a “Made in Central Asia” label. Uzbekistan’s trade with Central Asian partners rose from $3.2 billion in 2017 to $6.9 billion in 2024, while trade with Azerbaijan has grown by 13% this year. Connectivity remained a focal point. Participants reaffirmed their commitment to the China-Kyrgyzstan-Uzbekistan railway and the Trans-Afghan corridor. Azerbaijan’s President...

domestic development

Central Asia and Regional Integration: Logistics, Water, Energy

Central Asia is undergoing a profound transformation, where questions of domestic development and the region’s ability to act in a coordinated way are coming to the forefront. For many years, Central Asian states were viewed as fragmented, each pursuing separate strategies that often put them in competition. Today, however, shared challenges and growing interdependence are making gradual convergence increasingly likely. The region now confronts common pressures such as water scarcity, energy imbalances, environmental degradation, and the fallout of instability in Afghanistan -- issues that no single country can effectively address in isolation. Increasingly, regional platforms such as the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) are being leveraged to mediate water-energy tradeoffs, while joint initiatives in transport, transit, and energy infrastructure foster new integration. Moreover, leading actors like Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan are pushing coordinated strategies -- modernizing rail and aviation links, coordinating transboundary water allocations, and exploring nuclear cooperation -- that point toward a more interconnected regional future. Shared Challenges and Points of Convergence The region faces problems that no country can solve alone. These include water shortages, energy imbalances, environmental risks, and instability in Afghanistan. Such challenges can be seen as both threats and opportunities, since they also represent areas of overlapping interest. Joint action in these fields can deliver more than fragmented national strategies. Water is particularly important, remaining one of the most sensitive issues in interstate relations. Yet it also offers opportunities for coordinated action through existing regional platforms, such as the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination of Central Asia. The “water for energy” model is increasingly seen as a practical tool, already under discussion and applied in bilateral and multilateral projects. Environmental issues are similarly shared. The disappearance of the Aral Sea, land degradation, air pollution, and glacier melt create threats that transcend national borders. Joint monitoring, data exchange, and coordinated adaptation measures, particularly within the United Nations Regional Centre for the Sustainable Development Goals for Central Asia and Afghanistan, opened in August 2025 in Almaty, could become a new direction for regional cooperation. Afghanistan remains another risk factor that affects the security of the entire region. At the same time, transportation and energy projects linking Central Asia with South Asia through Afghan territory can turn a challenge into an opportunity. Reducing instability and integrating Afghanistan into regional trade and transit networks serves the interests of all Central Asian states. Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan as leading forces To understand how closer integration might work in practice, it is useful to examine the strategies of the region’s two key players: Astana and Tashkent. The major agreements concluded by Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan with the United States in transport and aviation should be viewed not as isolated deals, but as evidence of the complementary strengths of the two largest economies in Central Asia. Kazakhstan signed its largest locomotive contract to date with U.S. company Wabtec, a $4.2 billion agreement for 300 TE33A freight locomotives to be assembled at the Wabtec Kazakhstan plant in Astana, along with servicing support. This will modernize...

Reshuffle

Japarov and Tokayev’s High-Level Reshuffles Usher in a New Political Season

Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan recently witnessed high-level political developments that drew attention beyond their borders. In Kyrgyzstan, the national parliament self-dissolved, while Kazakhstan underwent a series of administrative reshuffles. Though both events were driven by reform-oriented policies, observers have offered sharply contrasting interpretations. In Kyrgyzstan, the initiative to dissolve the Jogorku Kenesh (parliament) was led by a group of 32 deputies headed by Speaker Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu. They cited logistical and financial concerns over the proximity of the next parliamentary and presidential elections, scheduled for November 2026 and January 2027, respectively. Holding two major elections in such a short span, they argued, would pose political and economic challenges. As a result, early parliamentary elections will now take place on November 30, under revised electoral rules. The new system divides the country into 30 constituencies, each electing three deputies. Political parties may nominate only one candidate per district, and the overall number of deputies will remain at 90. However, the majority of seats are now expected to go to independents, reducing the dominance of political parties in the electoral process. Some Kazakh observers, long accustomed to viewing Kyrgyzstan as a “democratic island” in the region, interpreted these changes as a move toward greater political openness. Former diplomat and public figure Kazbek Beysembayev contrasted Kyrgyzstan’s reforms with Kazakhstan’s political trajectory, where authorities are reportedly planning to eliminate single-mandate districts in favor of a fully party-based electoral system. He warned this would further consolidate the ruling party’s dominance. “Such a move might be acceptable if laws on political party registration had first been liberalized. But that hasn’t happened,” Beysembayev argued. However, not all analysts share this optimistic view. Central Asia expert Arkady Dubnov sees the Kyrgyz move as a calculated maneuver by the ruling elite. He argues that a political duumvirate, composed of President Sadyr Japarov and State Committee for National Security (SCNS) chief Kamchybek Tashiev, has increasingly consolidated control. According to Dubnov, the early elections are designed to cement this grip on power. “By extending the gap between the parliamentary and presidential elections to 14 months, the authorities are creating space for a politically engineered campaign,” Dubnov explained. “This may pave the way for General Tashiev’s eventual rise to the presidency. His image as the real power broker, from resolving the border conflict with Tajikistan to renaming his hometown Jalal-Abad to Manas, has been solidified. President Japarov would likely retain influence within a reconfigured leadership structure.” In Kazakhstan, meanwhile, administrative reshuffles have continued, drawing significant attention, particularly the replacement of Foreign Minister Murat Nurtleu with seasoned diplomat Yermek Kosherbayev. The change followed speculation in early September that Nurtleu had been detained by the National Security Committee, a claim that proved false but nevertheless added intrigue to his removal from the Foreign Ministry. He has since been appointed presidential aide for international investment and trade cooperation. Political analyst Daniyar Ashimbayev acknowledged that this role is technically a demotion but argued it still reflects political trust. “Tokayev doesn’t typically reappoint officials who have committed serious...

Politics

From Reform to Deals: Central Asia Steps Onto the Global Stage at UNGA-80

Ecology, global instability, and the need for UN reform dominated the speeches of all five Central Asian presidents at the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. Presenting a united front while emphasizing national priorities, the leaders made clear that Central Asia intends to play a pivotal role in shaping the global future. UN Reform Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev was the first among the CIS leaders to address the assembly, speaking of a growing crisis of trust in multilateral institutions and calling for sweeping reforms. Tokayev emphasized the need to expand the UN Security Council, arguing that major powers from Asia, Africa, and Latin America must receive rotational representation, and that the influence of middle powers should be strengthened. “We need to create a new group of like-minded states that will professionally and decisively advance concrete proposals for reforming the UN so that it better responds to today’s challenges and tomorrow’s tasks,” he said, proposing Kazakhstan as a platform for these discussions. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev echoed these concerns, highlighting the weakening of international institutions and the proliferation of global conflicts. He endorsed UN Secretary-General António Guterres’ UN-80 initiative and voiced support for the Pact for the Future, which sets out commitments to strengthen multilateral cooperation and address global challenges through 2045, the UN’s centenary. Mirziyoyev also advocated for an expanded Security Council to better represent developing countries. In his address, Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov called for a more just and representative Security Council, underscoring Africa’s right to greater participation. He also announced Kyrgyzstan’s candidacy for a non-permanent seat on the Security Council for 2027-2028, noting that his country has never before held such a position. Tajik President Emomali Rahmon warned of growing instability, uncertainty, and complexity in world affairs. Rahmon stressed the UN’s role as a platform for dialogue and cooperation and called for equal partnerships between large and small states to restore adherence to international law. Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov argued that the current global situation requires a "decisive shift toward coordinated interaction among states and international organizations to maintain peace and security.” He proposed declaring 2028 the Year of International Law to strengthen the legal foundations of global cooperation. Ecology and Finance On environmental issues, the Central Asian leaders focused on national and regional concerns. Tokayev addressed the ongoing shallowing of the Caspian Sea, while both he and Mirziyoyev raised the issue of the Aral Sea crisis, often described as "one of the world’s worst environmental disasters." Rahmon highlighted the rapid disappearance of glaciers, a point supported by Japarov, given the critical dependence of Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan on mountain water resources. Berdimuhamedov, meanwhile, proposed establishing a regional center for combating desertification in Central Asia. Other initiatives included the proposed Caspian Environmental Forum in 2026 and continued advancement of the Caspian Environmental Initiative, originally introduced by Ashgabat. Financial concerns were also prominent. Rahmon called for reforms to international financial mechanisms, citing the continued suffering of vulnerable developing countries from the impacts of economic crises, poverty, disease, natural disasters,...