Climate Change - The Times Of Central Asia

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Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

Climate Change

Central Asia’s Climate Risks Could Cost Up to 130% of GDP by 2080

By 2080, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the economies of Central Asian countries, with potential losses ranging from 20% to 130% of GDP. The most severe effects are projected for mountainous nations. These estimates were presented at a CAREC technology forum by Iskandar Abdullaev, a senior research fellow at the International Water Management Institute in Uzbekistan. According to Abdullaev, climate change is no longer solely an environmental issue but an increasingly significant economic factor. Key risks include droughts and water scarcity, floods, heatwaves, and glacier melt. The projected economic impact varies across the region. Tajikistan could face losses of between 80% and 130% of GDP, Kyrgyzstan 70% to 120%, Kazakhstan 40% to 80%, Uzbekistan 30% to 45%, and Turkmenistan 20% to 60%. Abdullaev emphasized that mountainous countries – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – are particularly vulnerable, as climate change directly affects water resources. Glacier melt reduces river flows, creating challenges for both energy production and water supply. Droughts and extreme heat are already placing pressure on agriculture, with declining crop yields and reduced pasture productivity. Without adaptation measures, the region’s long-term sustainability could be at risk. Experts stress that mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to reduce these risks. These include modernizing irrigation systems, adopting climate-resilient agricultural technologies, and expanding renewable energy capacity. This is not the only warning. According to the World Bank, natural disasters are already causing significant economic damage in Central Asia. Losses from extreme events, including floods and earthquakes, can reach up to 6% of GDP, with earthquakes alone accounting for up to $2 billion in damages. At the same time, countries in the region face substantial financing gaps following major disasters. In Tajikistan, this gap could reach up to $1.5 billion. Experts warn that climate change is likely to intensify these risks, further increasing the economic burden on the region.

Climate Change

Melting Glaciers Becoming an Increasing Threat to Central Asia’s Resources

Glacier melt in Central Asia is becoming increasingly critical, posing risks to water resources, economic stability, and regional security. In response, countries in the region are strengthening coordination and launching new scientific and policy initiatives. According to the UN, glaciers in the world’s mountainous regions are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. Rising temperatures are leading to a longer warm season and a shorter winter, accelerating the process of degradation. Glaciers remain a key element of the global water system: they account for about 70% of freshwater reserves, and nearly two billion people depend directly on these resources. In addition, they perform an important climatic function by reflecting solar radiation and limiting the warming of the Earth’s surface. Central Asia is already facing the consequences of climate change. The region is under increasing pressure from rising temperatures, droughts, and dust storms. Tajikistan remains particularly vulnerable. According to President Emomali Rahmon, of the approximately 14,000 glaciers that the country once had, more than 1,000 have already disappeared, and their total volume has shrunk by nearly a third. Yet it is these glaciers that account for over 60% of the region’s water resources. In Kyrgyzstan, the area of glaciers has decreased by approximately 16% over the past 50-70 years. President Sadyr Japarov previously warned that, if current trends continue, a significant portion of them could disappear by the end of the 21st century, posing a threat to millions of residents in the region. In response to the growing crisis, at Tajikistan’s initiative, the UN General Assembly declared 2025 the International Year of Glacier Conservation. The official launch took place on March 21 in New York and coincided with the first World Glacier Day. At an international conference in Dushanbe, the Dushanbe Declaration was adopted, expressing concern over the accelerated loss of glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost. The document highlights the potentially “irreversible consequences” for ecosystems and the economy. The five countries of Central Asia are also developing joint adaptation mechanisms. Key measures include monitoring the condition of glaciers, creating a unified regional registry, and coordinating water policy.

Desertification

Environmental Pressures Affect Up to 80% of Irrigated Land in Turkmenistan

Environmental pressures in Turkmenistan are intensifying, with desertification, water scarcity, and ecological degradation posing increasing risks to agriculture and public health, according to a recent analysis cited by News-Asia. The study was prepared by experts from the Central Asia Climate Foundation (CACF)’s climate change and green energy project office ahead of a regional environmental summit scheduled for April 22–24 in Astana. Researchers warn that desertification has reached critical levels across large parts of the country. The expansion of the Karakum and Kyzylkum deserts is described as among the fastest globally, threatening farmland, infrastructure, and living standards. Land degradation is being exacerbated by overgrazing, soil salinization and inefficient water use. As a result, up to 80% of irrigated land is affected by elevated groundwater salinity, reducing soil productivity. Water scarcity remains another major challenge. Turkmenistan relies heavily on transboundary rivers, particularly the Amu Darya, leaving it vulnerable to upstream water management decisions. Climate change is also contributing to reduced flows in rivers such as the Atrek, Murgab, and Tejen. Much of the irrigation infrastructure dates back to the Soviet era and suffers from significant losses, while agriculture accounts for around 90% of total water consumption. The analysis highlights the continuing regional impact of the Aral Sea crisis. The drying of the sea has increased the frequency of salt and dust storms carrying harmful substances across Central Asia. In northern regions, including Dashoguz, medical specialists have reported rising rates of respiratory illness and other health problems linked to deteriorating air quality. Environmental risks are also growing along the Caspian Sea coast. According to the report, pollution from hydrocarbon extraction combined with declining water levels is affecting biodiversity and undermining fisheries. At the same time, the government has taken steps to address environmental challenges through national climate programs and reforestation initiatives. Turkmenistan is also participating in international projects, including a regional effort launched earlier this year to combat marine litter in the Caspian Sea with support from the United Nations Development Programme and the United Nations Environment Programme. The upcoming summit in Astana is expected to bring together around 1,500 participants, including government officials and representatives of international organizations, to discuss coordinated responses to environmental threats. Organizers say the meeting could result in a regional action program for 2026-2030 and a joint declaration by Central Asian leaders.

Lake Issyk-Kul

Kyrgyzstan Draws International Attention to Climate Risks for Lake Issyk-Kul

Speaking at the World Governments Summit in Dubai on February 4, Bakyt Torobaev, Kyrgyzstan’s Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers and Minister of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry, highlighted the growing threat climate change poses to Lake Issyk-Kul, the country’s largest lake, a unique ecological reserve, and one of Central Asia’s leading tourist destinations. Torobaev described Issyk-Kul as a unique ecosystem of regional significance and a vital socioeconomic and environmental resource for Kyrgyzstan. However, in recent decades, the lake has experienced serious climate-related pressures, according to the Ministry of Water Resources. Since the mid-19th century, the lake’s water level has dropped by nearly 14 meters, while its total volume has decreased by approximately 85 billion cubic meters. The number of rivers flowing into the lake has also significantly declined, largely due to melting glaciers and increased agricultural water use. Torobaev warned that further declines in Issyk-Kul’s water level could lead to severe environmental and socioeconomic consequences, including threats to biodiversity, the lake’s tourism potential, and the well-being of the local population. Kyrgyzstan, he said, sees the preservation of Issyk-Kul as part of the broader global climate and water agenda, calling for a shift from short-term measures to long-term, science-based, and investment-driven solutions. He urged the international community to strengthen partnerships in sustainable water resource management, integrate climate, water, and ecosystem approaches, and support joint initiatives aimed at preserving ecologically significant natural sites. In December 2025, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers approved the Concept for the Sustainable Development of the Ecological and Economic System of Lake Issyk-Kul until 2030, along with a corresponding Action Plan. The initiative aims to safeguard the lake and its surrounding biosphere from mounting environmental and human pressures while enhancing long-term economic resilience in the region. Torobaev also addressed the broader issue of water scarcity, which is becoming an increasingly critical factor for regional stability, food security, and sustainable development in the context of climate change. As a mountainous country that serves as a key source of Central Asia’s rivers, Kyrgyzstan bears particular responsibility for the sustainability of the region’s water ecosystems, he said, and consistently advances the water agenda at international forums. Also on February 4, Torobaev participated in a Global Councils on SDGs meeting at the summit, where he proposed greater global attention to the challenges facing mountain regions. He said that mountain ecosystems are among the most vulnerable to climate change. Melting glaciers, shifting precipitation patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events pose long-term risks to water resources, agriculture, and energy security in Central Asia and beyond. Kyrgyzstan, he said, advocates for recognizing mountain regions as special zones for sustainable development and ensuring their prioritized access to climate finance, adaptation technologies, and environmental monitoring systems. According to Torobaev, the sustainability of mountain regions is directly linked to the water and food security of millions of people, underscoring the need for systemic and coordinated international responses.

Kurultai

Japarov Outlines Development Priorities at Fourth People’s Kurultai

Kyrgyzstan’s fourth People’s Kurultai, a national forum for direct dialogue between citizens and state leadership, was held in Bishkek on December 25-26. Addressing delegates, President Sadyr Japarov outlined the government's economic, social, and environmental priorities for the coming years. Sustained Economic Growth Japarov described the past three years as a period of strong economic performance, with average annual GDP growth of 9.8%. Real GDP grew by 10.2% in the first 11 months of 2025. GDP per capita in 2024 reached approximately $2,513. Unemployment dropped to 3.7%, while the poverty rate declined from 29.8% to 25.7% year-on-year. Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) have emerged as the backbone of the economy, with their contribution to GDP rising from 42.6% to 51.7% during the first nine months of 2025. National Development Program Through 2030 Japarov presented the government’s National Development Program through 2030, which is centered on four key pillars: industrialization, transformation into a regional transport and logistics hub, agricultural and tourism development, and expansion of green energy. The industrialization strategy includes the creation of industrial and technology zones and the construction of new production facilities to double industrial output by 2030. Large-scale investments in railways, highways, logistics centers, and warehouses are expected to bolster Kyrgyzstan’s role as a regional transit corridor. Tourism is also a major focus. Japarov emphasized efforts to modernize the sector in line with international standards, citing the construction of new hotels, roads, airports, tourist routes, and recreational infrastructure. By 2030, the tourism sector is projected to contribute 7% to GDP. Agricultural Development and Food Security With nearly 58% of the population living in rural areas, agriculture remains a strategic priority. Japarov stated that Kyrgyzstan is currently self-sufficient in six of nine key food products, milk, potatoes, vegetables, meat, eggs, and sugar. Agricultural reform centers on the development of agro-industrial clusters that bring together farmers, processors, logistics providers, and financial institutions to create integrated value chains. The goal is to shift from raw-material exports toward higher-value-added production. Climate Change and Water Resources Japarov also warned of worsening climate-related challenges, particularly declining water resources. Over the past 70 years, Kyrgyzstan has lost around 16% of its glacier area, endangering river flows, irrigation systems, and hydropower production. Lake Issyk-Kul is of particular concern. Since the mid-19th century, the lake’s water level has dropped by nearly 14 meters. The number of rivers feeding into the lake has declined from more than 100 to approximately 30-35. The president cautioned that continued degradation could have serious environmental and socioeconomic consequences. Water scarcity, he noted, also threatens food security, with 95% of national water consumption tied to agriculture. He called for more efficient irrigation, glacier protection, and expanded reforestation efforts. From Social Spending to Development Focus Japarov’s remarks were echoed by Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers Adylbek Kasymaliev, who addressed parliament a day earlier. Kasymaliev stated that the state has shifted from a “social economy” to a “development economy.” In 2025, 35% of government spending was allocated to the production sector, compared to 23%...