Water Access - The Times Of Central Asia

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Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

Qosh Tepa canal

Afghanistan Advances Qosh Tepa Canal While Urging Regional Water Cooperation

Uzbekistan just hosted the Tashkent Water Week forum, and the speaker many wanted to hear from was the representative from Afghanistan. Central Asia and Afghanistan are being hit hard by climate change. This region has endured several droughts already this decade, and indications are that this year will bring drought again. Hanging over the forum was Afghanistan’s plan to complete the Qosh-Tepa Canal in 2028, which will draw water from a river that Central Asian countries also use and further complicate the regional water situation. [caption id="attachment_18865" align="aligncenter" width="1280"] Qosh Tepa Canal, artist's rendition; image: TCA, Aleksandr Potolitsyn[/caption] Our Fair Share The forum, which actually spanned only two days, March 25-26, brought together some 80 speakers and more than 1,200 delegates from 19 countries. In the past five years, Central Asia has seen noticeably diminished precipitation, melting glaciers, and record high temperatures, making water conservation a priority. The last days of March saw temperatures soar into the 30s Celsius in southern Kazakhstan. In both Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan, there were record-high temperatures in February. Rainfall for the last three months of 2025 was also far below normal across Central Asia. When the Taliban government announced in early 2022 that it would build the 285-kilometer-long, 100-meter-wide, 8.5-meter-deep Qosh Tepa to irrigate lands in northern Afghanistan, it added another water concern to Central Asia, particularly the governments in Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan. Afghanistan’s Deputy Minister of Water and Energy, Mujeeb-ur-Rahman Omar, led the Afghan delegation at the Tashkent Water Week. At the forum, he repeated his government’s position that historically, Afghanistan has taken only very small volumes of water from the Amu-Darya River basin, while its northern neighbors have been using large amounts for irrigation for decades. “We believe in the fair and sustainable development of the region,” Omar said, adding, “We intend to develop (water resources) on a legal basis, in accordance with the legal rights of the countries in the region.“ Omar is correct that under international law, Afghanistan has an equal right to water from the Amu-Darya, one of Central Asia’s two great rivers. The river currently marks the border between Afghanistan to the south, and Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and a small section of Turkmenistan to the north. There is no separate regional water use agreement between the Central Asian states and Afghanistan. Since none of the Central Asian governments officially recognize the Taliban as the legitimate Afghan government, Russia is the only country that does at the moment, there is no possibility of a legal treaty on water use being signed. So, shortly after the construction of the canal is finished in 2028, some 20% of the water in the Amu-Darya, starting from the point just west of the Tajik-Uzbek border, will be diverted into the Qosh Tepa canal. It is already clear that this will mean the end of some downstream communities in Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan that are on the edge of the Kara-Kum Desert and which are already under strain from insufficient water supplies. Turkmenistan did not send a...

Water Access

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan Resume Data Sharing on Reservoirs and Transboundary Rivers

Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan have renewed formal cooperation in hydrometeorology, agreeing to exchange key hydrological data on major reservoirs and transboundary rivers, a development officials say is vital for regional flood management and agricultural planning. The agreement covers data exchange on the Kirov, Orto-Tokoy, and Toktogul reservoirs, all located in Kyrgyzstan but directly influencing downstream water supply in Kazakhstan. The signing took place on February 9 in Astana, where Kyrgyzstan’s First Deputy Minister of Emergency Situations Mambetov Muratovich and Kazakhstan’s First Deputy Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation Nurlan Aldamzharov endorsed a 2026-2028 cooperation program between Kazhydromet and the Kyrgyz Hydrometeorological Service. Key Components of the Agreement The three-year program includes: Regular exchange of hydrological data on shared rivers and reservoirs Joint forecasting of basin runoff and water accumulation Mutual hazard and storm warnings Scientific and technical collaboration Professional exchange between agencies Describing the agreement as an achievement of "water diplomacy," Aldamzharov emphasized that timely data is critical to protecting populations and infrastructure downstream, especially during peak water flow and flood risk periods. Strategic Role of Kyrgyz Water Infrastructure Kyrgyzstan plays a pivotal upstream role in Central Asia’s water system, delivering seasonal irrigation flows to southern Kazakhstan’s Turkistan, Kyzylorda, and Zhambyl regions via the Chu, Talas, and Syr Darya rivers. Each of the reservoirs included in the data-sharing agreement serves a distinct strategic function: Kirov Reservoir: Located in Kyrgyzstan’s Talas region, near the Kazakh border; vital for irrigating farmland on both sides. Orto-Tokoy Reservoir: Situated on the Chu River, which flows into Kazakhstan, it regulates seasonal supply for downstream agriculture. Toktogul Reservoir: Kyrgyzstan’s largest, located on the Naryn River, the principal tributary of the Syr Darya, one of Central Asia’s main water arteries feeding Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources, during the 2025 growing season, Zhambyl region received 160 million cubic meters of water via the Chu River and 427.5 million cubic meters via the Talas River under existing water allocation frameworks. Water Stress Ahead of Growing Season Authorities warn that the Syr Darya basin continues to experience low-flow conditions. Reduced inflows to the Naryn-Syr Darya system are threatening irrigation reliability for the upcoming agricultural season. The Toktogul Reservoir may reach near-record low levels, heightening risks for downstream farmers. In response, agricultural authorities in southern Kazakhstan have urged the adoption of water-saving irrigation technologies, a shift away from water-intensive crops, and greater reliance on drought-resistant varieties-steps that make access to reliable hydrological forecasts increasingly urgent.

Drinking Water

Uzbekistan Targets 85% Drinking Water Access by 2030

Uzbekistan aims to provide 85% of its population with access to drinking water services by 2030, according to a draft strategy prepared by the Agency for Strategic Reforms under the President of Uzbekistan. The proposal forms part of a broader development roadmap focused on sustaining reform momentum and advancing national priorities through the end of the decade. The document outlines a gradual increase in drinking water coverage: 82% by 2026, 83% in 2027, 84% in 2028 and 2029, and reaching 85% by 2030. Officials say the targets reflect a long-term effort to modernize water infrastructure and improve living conditions in both urban and rural communities. The strategy also prioritizes public institutions. Authorities plan to ensure that, by 2030, all preschools and general secondary schools will have access to clean drinking water and be equipped with modern sanitation and hygiene systems. The focus aligns with national concerns over public health and the learning environment for children. The draft includes measures to enhance the efficiency of water use nationwide. Uzbekistan aims to boost water-use efficiency by 25%, ensure 100% metering of drinking water consumers, and reduce critically affected groundwater areas to 773,400 hectares. The government is also pursuing major infrastructure and agricultural initiatives. A key component is the planned expansion of the Tuyamuyun water reservoir’s capacity by 1 billion cubic meters. The project is expected to secure water supply for 1.2 million hectares of land, build strategic reserves of drinking water, and improve resilience to drought and shortages. Additionally, the plan promotes the cultivation of drought-resistant crops and high-yield varieties of fruits and grapes tailored to Uzbekistan’s climate, with the goal of increasing agricultural productivity by 30-35%. The renewed emphasis on water management comes as Uzbekistan faces mounting pressure on its water resources. Earlier, Energy Minister Jurabek Mirzamahmudov informed lawmakers in the Legislative Chamber of the country's parliament, the Oliy Majlis, that electricity generation at the country’s hydropower plants had dropped sharply due to water scarcity. According to him, inflows to major hydropower facilities had fallen by 35% compared with the previous year, significantly impacting power output.

Society

Tajikistan Remains in 113th Place in Global Social Progress Index

The newly released Global Social Progress Index offers a mixed assessment of Tajikistan, where improvements in water and sanitation have been overshadowed by a sharp decline in civil liberties, limiting the country's overall advancement in global rankings. Tajikistan ranks 113th out of 170 countries in the AlTi 2025 Global Social Progress Index, with a score of 58.15 points, according to the latest report from the international research initiative AlTi Global Social Progress Index. The index evaluates non-economic aspects of quality of life, including healthcare, education, rights, and freedoms. Covering data from 2011 to 2024, the report shows Tajikistan has improved its overall score by 5.98 points over the period. However, the country was classified as having “stagnant indicators” in 2024, reflecting a lack of measurable progress in the past year. One of the most significant achievements noted in the report is Tajikistan’s improvement in access to water and sanitation. Since 2011, this component has risen by 38.83 points, placing the country among the global leaders in this area. The report notes that investments in water and sanitation infrastructure have long-term impacts on public health, education, and social well-being, contributing meaningfully to the country’s overall index score. Conversely, the most concerning decline has been in the Rights & Voice category, which includes measures of political rights, freedom of speech, media independence, academic freedom, and equality before the law. Tajikistan's score in this area has dropped by 15.94 points since 2011, placing it among the ten countries with the worst downward trends in civil liberties worldwide. According to the report, this deterioration in rights and freedoms is the primary barrier to further social progress in Tajikistan. Within the Central Asia region, which has generally seen upward trends since 2011, Tajikistan ranks lowest. Kazakhstan currently ranks 58th, Uzbekistan 76th, and Kyrgyzstan 81st. The report concludes that sustainable social progress in the region is impossible without significant improvements in civil rights and freedoms. While infrastructure development and educational gains are important, they cannot offset systemic issues related to political and civil liberties.

Water Access

Central Asia Confirms Joint Water Plan for Shardara Reservoir Ahead of 2025-2026 Season

Central Asian nations have reached a consensus on projected water inflow volumes to the Shardara Reservoir for the upcoming non-vegetation period, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Water Resources and Irrigation. The agreement was finalized during a regional meeting attended by senior officials: Durdy Gendjiev, Chair of Turkmenistan’s State Committee for Water Management; Nurzhan Nurzhigitov, Kazakhstan’s Minister of Water Resources and Irrigation; Shavkat Hamraev, Uzbekistan’s Minister of Water Management; and Jamshed Shodi Shoimzoda, First Deputy Minister of Energy and Water Resources of Tajikistan. Emil Shodikhanov, an adviser at the Kyrgyz Embassy in Turkmenistan, participated as an observer. Participants reviewed outcomes from the 2025 irrigation season and approved the operational forecast for the Naryn-Syr Darya reservoir cascade for the 2025-2026 non-vegetation period. A consensus was reached on expected inflow volumes to Shardara Reservoir, which is a critical node in the region’s transboundary water system. The meeting also included discussions on progress in implementing the commitments made during recent summits of the founding states of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea. The 92nd session of the Interstate Commission for Water Coordination (ICWC) is scheduled to take place next year in Tajikistan. “Last irrigation season took place under difficult climate conditions. However, coordinated cooperation among the ICWC member states made it possible to ensure stability throughout the vegetation period,” said Nurzhigitov. “Through such meetings, we reach common agreements and lay the foundation for future cooperation. Together with our colleagues in Central Asia, we aim for a fair distribution of transboundary water resources that considers the interests of all parties.” This agreement follows the 16 November regional summit chaired by Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev, during which Central Asian leaders discussed enhancing regional cooperation and accelerating joint infrastructure projects. The summit focused on escalating ecological and water challenges, and leaders stressed the need to adopt a “green development” framework for the region. They also proposed declaring 2026-2036 as the “Decade of Practical Action for the Rational Use of Water in Central Asia.”