Climate Change - The Times Of Central Asia

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Regional Ecological Summit

Central Asian Countries to Jointly Address Cryosphere Threats

As part of the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) in Astana, the UNESCO Regional Office in Almaty organised a session titled “The Cryosphere of Central Asia: From Scientific Assessment to Joint Climate Adaptation Action,” in cooperation with Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources and Ministry of Science and Higher Education. The event was held under the GEF-UNDP-UNESCO Cryosphere project and in collaboration with Central Asian countries. The session focused on discussing the Joint Subregional Action Programme (JSAP) on the cryosphere, a framework document developed by Central Asian countries with UNESCO’s support. The programme is aimed at strengthening regional cooperation in monitoring and research on glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost, as well as aligning approaches to climate change adaptation, according to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources. Central Asia is experiencing accelerated glacier melt. Under a high-emissions scenario, the region could lose up to 85% of its glacier volume by 2100 compared to 2020 levels. This would increase pressure on water resources, infrastructure, and communities, while also heightening the risk of natural hazards, including glacial lake outburst floods. As these processes are regional in nature, they require coordinated responses across Central Asian countries. “UNESCO has been actively supporting Central Asian countries in strengthening the scientific basis and advancing regional cooperation on the cryosphere. Today, the key priority is to move from scientific assessment to concrete action. The Joint Subregional Action Programme provides a practical framework for this transition and enhances coordination of adaptation efforts across the region,” said Amir Piric, Director of the UNESCO Regional Office in Almaty. As a key outcome of the session, heads of relevant government authorities from Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan responsible for environmental protection issued a joint statement supporting JSAP implementation, reaffirming their commitment to strengthened regional cooperation. “Today it is clear that no country can effectively address climate change challenges alone. Regional cooperation is therefore essential. The Joint Statement reflects the readiness of Central Asian countries to join efforts and develop coordinated approaches to climate change adaptation,” said Nurlan Kurmalayev, Deputy Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources of Kazakhstan. The JSAP provides a foundation for coordinated action among countries and partners, defines cooperation priorities, and supports the advancement of climate adaptation measures in the region. The joint statement also opens opportunities to mobilise funding from various sources, including donors, international financial institutions, and the private sector.

Regional Ecological Summit

Armenian President Delivers Speech at Astana Summit, Emphasizing Climate Action and Biodiversity

Astana, Kazakhstan – Armenian President Vahagn Khachaturyan addressed the Regional Ecological Summit (RES 2026) today, speaking about the urgent challenges of climate change, biodiversity loss, and the need for strengthened international cooperation. The summit, themed “Shared Vision for a Resilient Future,” opened its sessions on Earth Day under the patronage of Kazakh President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev. In his remarks, President Khachaturyan expressed deep gratitude to his Kazakh counterpart, the government, and the people of Kazakhstan for their warm hospitality and the excellent organization of this important event. “It is an honor to address the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana,” he stated. He praised Kazakhstan’s leadership in advancing global and regional cooperation on climate change and environmental protection, describing the event as an important platform for dialogue bringing together governments, the scientific community, civil society, and international partners. [caption id="attachment_47661" align="alignnone" width="300"] President Vahagn Khachaturyan gives address at the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana; Image: TCA[/caption] Highlighting Armenia’s unique vulnerabilities, the President noted that, as a landlocked, developing, and mountainous nation, Armenia is already experiencing severe effects of climate change despite contributing just 0.02% of global greenhouse gas emissions. “Over the past decades, the average temperature in the country has increased by more than one degree Celsius and is projected to continue rising by mid-century,” he said. These changes have triggered more frequent extreme weather events, including floods and droughts, leading to significant ecological losses, declining precipitation, glacier retreat, and growing water scarcity — particularly affecting rural communities and mountain ecosystems. President Khachaturyan welcomed Kazakhstan’s initiative to convene international consultations on strengthening cooperation for effective water resource management and said Armenia will actively participate. On the climate front, he reaffirmed Armenia’s ambitious nationally determined contributions (NDCs): a 44% reduction in greenhouse gas emissions by 2035 compared to 1990 levels through domestic measures, rising to 52% with international support. “Armenia undertakes these commitments with full awareness of its national capacity and the importance of international cooperation,” he emphasized, citing the principles of equity and common but differentiated responsibilities. Turning to biodiversity, the President stressed that rising temperatures are a major driver of biodiversity loss, with profound consequences for ecosystems, human health, food security, and economies worldwide. He announced that Armenia will host the 17th Conference of the Parties (COP17) to the Convention on Biological Diversity in Yerevan in October later this year. “These efforts reflect our small country’s strong commitment to promote global nature conservation,” Khachaturyan declared, inviting all participants to join the landmark gathering “to review our progress and identify ways to accelerate efforts to restore and protect the environment for present and future generations.” The Armenian President concluded by underscoring the critical role of international cooperation, including the mobilization of financial resources, sharing of expertise, and the transfer of technology. “Armenia stands ready to cooperate with regional and international partners, to share our experience and to learn from others,” he said. “Together, we can protect our planet Earth, ensure long-term resilience and well-being for our societies.” President Khachaturyan’s address highlights Armenia’s...

Astana Ecological Summit Turns Regional Climate Pressure Into a Call for Joint Action

On April 22, 2026, leaders from Central Asia and neighboring states opened the Regional Ecological Summit 2026 in Astana on Earth Day with an urgent and practical message: the region’s environmental crisis is no longer a future risk, but a present constraint on water, food, energy, and economic security. The summit, held under the theme “A Shared Vision for a Sustainable Future,” was organized by Kazakhstan with the United Nations and international partners. Its stated purpose is to develop policy tools for protecting, restoring, and jointly using ecosystems, water and land resources, and conserving biodiversity in Central Asia. The program includes 58 events, consultations on a possible International Water Organization within the UN system, and expected documents, including a Central Asian declaration on environmental solidarity and a 2026–2030 regional action program. [caption id="attachment_47607" align="aligncenter" width="775"] President Tokayev gives his keynote address at the Regional Ecological Summit in Astana; Image: TCA[/caption] Opening the plenary, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev argued that environmental policy must not become another dividing line in global politics. He called for a fair and balanced green transition, especially for developing economies, and warned that Central Asia’s shared rivers, landscapes, and climate risks demand shared responsibility. Tokayev singled out water scarcity, desertification, glacier melt, air pollution and biodiversity loss as the region’s core challenges. He also highlighted Kazakhstan’s plans to expand renewable energy, protect the Caspian Sea, restore the Northern Aral, and start consultations on a proposed International Water Organization. [video width="720" height="1280" mp4="https://timesca.com/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/no-comments-Reels.mp4"][/video] The water question dominated the speeches. President Sadyr Japarov said that Kyrgyzstan bears a disproportionate burden despite its small contribution to global emissions. He pointed to a sharp increase in mudflows and floods, shrinking glaciers, and the fact that most water formed in Kyrgyzstan flows to neighboring states. His proposal was blunt: downstream users should help co-finance the water infrastructure and ecosystem services that upstream countries maintain. Uzbekistan's President Shavkat Mirziyoyev turned the summit into a platform for concrete regional initiatives. In his official speech, he said that Central Asia is warming twice as fast as the global average, has already lost nearly a third of its glaciers, and faces land degradation across 80 million hectares. He proposed a Clean Air consortium, a regional desertification and drought center, a green trade corridor, a unified climate-investment portfolio, an environmental atlas and a Central Asian Red Book. Tajikistan’s President Emomali Rahmon brought the glacier crisis into sharp relief. Tajikistan supplies much of Central Asia’s water, but its glaciers are retreating, threatening water balance and increasing disaster risks. Rahmon linked the environmental agenda to hydropower, green finance, biodiversity protection, and water diplomacy, and invited partners to continue the discussion at a high-level water conference in Dushanbe. Turkmenistan's President Serdar Berdimuhamedov backed a stronger institutional approach, proposing a UN-supported regional council on water use to align national policies and manage transboundary resources more transparently. He also announced a high-level Caspian Sea ecology meeting in Turkmenistan for October 2026. Heads of state from beyond Central Asia widened the frame. Armenia’s...

Access to Clean Water

Water Stress: Will the Summer of 2026 Become a Turning Point for Central Asia?

The summer of 2026 is projected to be a critical and potentially decisive period for Central Asia in the context of water stress. The region is entering the growing season with significantly lower water reserves in its main river basins, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya, compared to previous years. The combined impact of climate change and rising consumption is expected to exacerbate irrigation shortages, threatening crop yields and food security. A Region Under Pressure: Water as a Strategic Factor For Kazakhstan, water is taking on an increasing strategic importance in 2026. The southern regions, Kyzylorda, Turkestan, and Zhambyl, have already entered a phase of persistent low water availability. Estimates suggest that the irrigation deficit could reach up to 1 billion cubic meters. The situation in the Syr Darya basin remains critical. Inflows are expected to fall 3.2 billion cubic meters below normal, and by the start of the growing season, total water volume may reach only 1-2 billion cubic meters, far below demand. The Shardara Reservoir, a key regional storage facility, is currently at roughly half of its design capacity. Uzbekistan faces an even more vulnerable position due to its high population density and large agricultural sector. The flow of the Amu Darya is projected to fall to 65% of its historical norm, putting food stability at risk. Tashkent is accelerating investments in canal reconstruction, as water losses during transport reach up to 40%. Against this backdrop, tensions between upstream and downstream countries could become more pronounced. Kyrgyzstan, acting as the region’s “water tower,” faces a difficult trade-off between energy security and its obligations to downstream neighbors. Low accumulation levels in the Toktogul Reservoir have constrained hydropower generation, leading to winter energy shortages and reduced summer water releases, precisely when Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan require them for irrigation. This cyclical dependency turns each growing season into a complex round of “water-for-electricity” negotiations, with diminishing room for maneuver. Tajikistan faces a similar situation in the Amu Darya basin. The Nurek Hydropower Plant is operating under strict conservation principles as reservoir levels remain several meters below previous norms. For Dushanbe, the priority remains fulfilling the Rogun project, which, under low-water conditions, raises justified concerns among downstream states. These tensions are compounded by the accelerated melting of Pamir glaciers, which currently increases water flows but poses a long-term risk of severe depletion. Turkmenistan is also expected to experience acute water stress in 2026. In the Ahal and Mary regions, pasture degradation and limited irrigation are reducing livestock numbers and grain yields. The government is investing in dredging the Karakum Canal and constructing small desalination plants, but these measures only partially offset declining Amu Darya flows. An additional destabilizing factor is Afghanistan’s Qosh-Tepa Canal project. By summer 2026, its impact on the Amu Darya basin is expected to become physically noticeable. Estimates state that unregulated water withdrawals could reduce downstream flows by 15-25%. Afghanistan’s absence from regional water-sharing agreements creates a legal vacuum that existing mechanisms cannot address. As a result, Central Asia is...

Climate Change

Central Asia’s Climate Risks Could Cost Up to 130% of GDP by 2080

By 2080, climate change is expected to have a profound impact on the economies of Central Asian countries, with potential losses ranging from 20% to 130% of GDP. The most severe effects are projected for mountainous nations. These estimates were presented at a CAREC technology forum by Iskandar Abdullaev, a senior research fellow at the International Water Management Institute in Uzbekistan. According to Abdullaev, climate change is no longer solely an environmental issue but an increasingly significant economic factor. Key risks include droughts and water scarcity, floods, heatwaves, and glacier melt. The projected economic impact varies across the region. Tajikistan could face losses of between 80% and 130% of GDP, Kyrgyzstan 70% to 120%, Kazakhstan 40% to 80%, Uzbekistan 30% to 45%, and Turkmenistan 20% to 60%. Abdullaev emphasized that mountainous countries – Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan – are particularly vulnerable, as climate change directly affects water resources. Glacier melt reduces river flows, creating challenges for both energy production and water supply. Droughts and extreme heat are already placing pressure on agriculture, with declining crop yields and reduced pasture productivity. Without adaptation measures, the region’s long-term sustainability could be at risk. Experts stress that mitigation and adaptation efforts are essential to reduce these risks. These include modernizing irrigation systems, adopting climate-resilient agricultural technologies, and expanding renewable energy capacity. This is not the only warning. According to the World Bank, natural disasters are already causing significant economic damage in Central Asia. Losses from extreme events, including floods and earthquakes, can reach up to 6% of GDP, with earthquakes alone accounting for up to $2 billion in damages. At the same time, countries in the region face substantial financing gaps following major disasters. In Tajikistan, this gap could reach up to $1.5 billion. Experts warn that climate change is likely to intensify these risks, further increasing the economic burden on the region.

Climate Change

Melting Glaciers Becoming an Increasing Threat to Central Asia’s Resources

Glacier melt in Central Asia is becoming increasingly critical, posing risks to water resources, economic stability, and regional security. In response, countries in the region are strengthening coordination and launching new scientific and policy initiatives. According to the UN, glaciers in the world’s mountainous regions are shrinking at an unprecedented rate. Rising temperatures are leading to a longer warm season and a shorter winter, accelerating the process of degradation. Glaciers remain a key element of the global water system: they account for about 70% of freshwater reserves, and nearly two billion people depend directly on these resources. In addition, they perform an important climatic function by reflecting solar radiation and limiting the warming of the Earth’s surface. Central Asia is already facing the consequences of climate change. The region is under increasing pressure from rising temperatures, droughts, and dust storms. Tajikistan remains particularly vulnerable. According to President Emomali Rahmon, of the approximately 14,000 glaciers that the country once had, more than 1,000 have already disappeared, and their total volume has shrunk by nearly a third. Yet it is these glaciers that account for over 60% of the region’s water resources. In Kyrgyzstan, the area of glaciers has decreased by approximately 16% over the past 50-70 years. President Sadyr Japarov previously warned that, if current trends continue, a significant portion of them could disappear by the end of the 21st century, posing a threat to millions of residents in the region. In response to the growing crisis, at Tajikistan’s initiative, the UN General Assembly declared 2025 the International Year of Glacier Conservation. The official launch took place on March 21 in New York and coincided with the first World Glacier Day. At an international conference in Dushanbe, the Dushanbe Declaration was adopted, expressing concern over the accelerated loss of glaciers, snow cover, and permafrost. The document highlights the potentially “irreversible consequences” for ecosystems and the economy. The five countries of Central Asia are also developing joint adaptation mechanisms. Key measures include monitoring the condition of glaciers, creating a unified regional registry, and coordinating water policy.