Climate Change - The Times Of Central Asia

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COP30

COP30 Delegate from Kazakhstan Says International Cooperation Is Hard, But Worth It

One of Kazakhstan’s representatives at the United Nations climate talks (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, this month was Almira Azhibekova, a Master of Environmental Management student at Yale University in the United States. As a member of the team from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, Azhibekova analyzed negotiations, helped prepare final reports, and performed other tasks. She shared this account, lightly edited by The Times of Central Asia. Views are her own. Attending COP30 as part of Kazakhstan’s delegation was an amazing chance to connect theoretical knowledge that I acquired at Yale with real-world climate diplomacy. I learned how countries like Kazakhstan access climate finance and technology support through fair partnerships and witnessed how, despite obstacles and challenges, international cooperation is the best way to turn ambitious goals into action. It is something I hope to bring back to Yale and my future work at home. What struck me most about COP30 was how global cooperation works in practice. It is inspiring, but also incredibly challenging. Seeing negotiations happen in real time was eye-opening. There is urgency, there is complexity, and there is a very human side to everything. Reaching consensus is not easy. Every country has its own priorities and concerns, and negotiators must ensure that everyone is heard and respected. Often, a single paragraph will go through informal consultations, smaller working groups, and then formal sessions before it can be agreed upon. Even one sentence in a final text can be discussed for hours, and some issues remain open for years. Diplomacy takes patience. Sometimes, a small difference in language becomes the focus of intense discussion because specific terminology can carry distinct legal and operational consequences. In international climate law, each term has a defined meaning, and a slight change in wording can alter how a mechanism will be implemented. I realized just how much weight language holds in shaping global climate action. Another insight, one I had known in theory but witnessed in practice, is that climate change affects every aspect of economies and societies and is a defining issue in international relations. Decisions made in negotiation rooms can influence economic development, security, and international cooperation, far beyond the environmental sphere. There were also practical challenges that made cooperation more difficult. Differences in languages, levels of technical expertise, national experiences, and even delegation sizes. Some countries can’t send enough people to be present in every negotiation. Equity in the process is as important as equity in the results. [caption id="attachment_39763" align="aligncenter" width="1327"] Photo provided by Almira Azhibekova[/caption] Another important factor is the quality of technical logistics and working conditions, which directly affect the effectiveness and accessibility of an already complex negotiation process. In addition to these observations, I was incredibly fortunate to speak to Dr. Katia Simeonova, a key architect and co-founder of the transparency framework under the Paris Agreement. She explained the peculiarities of negotiation: how every word in the text works in practice, how specific terms shape legal outcomes, and things that delegations must...

Glaciers

Glacier Shift in Tajikistan Triggers Fears of Flood and Landslide

A significant portion of the Didal Glacier in Tajikistan’s Tajikabad district has detached and slid more than five kilometers downslope, according to a report by Russian state news agency TASS, citing the Agency for Hydrometeorology of Tajikistan. Experts from the agency’s Center for Glaciology confirmed that the glacier has continued to shift over the past three days, advancing an additional 72 meters and remaining in an “unstable” state. A field expedition to the Surkhob River basin revealed that the detached ice mass measures between 1.3 and 1.5 kilometers in length, 170-200 meters in width, and 25-50 meters in height. Satellite imagery reviewed by glaciologists confirmed the glacier’s ongoing movement and indicated significant displacement since its initial shift began in September. Experts attribute the detachment to unusually high temperatures during the summer and autumn months. The Geophysical Service of the National Academy of Sciences noted that seismic activity may also be a contributing factor. On November 3, an earthquake struck the region at 01:29 local time, with tremors measuring four points in Dushanbe and six to seven in northern Afghanistan, the location of the epicenter. Scientists believe the combination of warming temperatures and recent seismic shocks has rendered the glacier’s behavior increasingly unpredictable. Officials from the Hydrometeorology Agency warned that continued movement of the Didal Glacier could lead to the formation of glacial lakes and possible outburst floods, endangering downstream settlements and infrastructure. The unstable ice mass also raises the risk of secondary natural hazards such as landslides and mudflows. Monitoring teams are conducting regular field assessments to track developments. Authorities have described the glacier's shift as a broader warning about the urgency of climate adaptation and glacier conservation. Tajikistan, 93 percent of which is mountainous, hosts roughly 14,000 glaciers that supply nearly 60 percent of Central Asia’s water resources. Of these, approximately 1,300 have already melted completely, and the rate of glacial retreat is accelerating. Earlier this year, President Emomali Rahmon warned of the growing threat posed by glacial lake outbursts, noting their potential to destroy villages and infrastructure and potential to cause casualties. He cited climate change, air pollution, and heavy dust deposits as key factors driving glacier loss. A similar incident occurred on October 25, when a large section of the Ismoil Somoni Glacier broke away in the same district. Emergency services quickly contained the situation, though authorities warned that continued rainfall and further collapse remained possible.

Climate Change

Central Asia Faces Billions in Climate Adaptation Costs, UNEP Warns

Central Asia ranks among the most climate-vulnerable regions in the world and will require tens of billions of dollars to adapt to the accelerating effects of global warming, according to a new report by the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP). The report identifies Central Asia as one of the fastest-warming areas globally. However, current adaptation funding remains drastically insufficient to meet the growing threat. A Region Under Threat Developing countries worldwide, including those in Central Asia, will need up to $310 billion annually by 2035 to adapt to climate change. UNEP highlights the region’s specific challenges: rapidly melting glaciers, widespread soil degradation, worsening water scarcity, and increasing aridity, all of which endanger food security and energy sustainability. “If we don't start investing in adaptation now, we will face increasing costs every year,” said UNEP Executive Director Inger Andersen. Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan are particularly exposed, with more than 70% of their populations employed in agriculture, which depends heavily on mountain rivers fed by glacial runoff. According to UNEP, glacier volumes in the region have shrunk by over 30% in the past decade. The changing flow of the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers threatens not only agriculture but also the hydropower sectors in both countries. Diminished access to water could lead to socio-economic instability in vulnerable communities. Funding Gap Widens UNEP estimates that developing countries in Europe and Central Asia need roughly $51 billion annually for adaptation. Yet, only a fraction of that figure is currently being met. Tajikistan, for example, has outlined total climate financing needs of $8 billion by 2030 and $17 billion by 2050. In Uzbekistan, the cost of modernizing irrigation and water management systems alone is expected to approach $10 billion by 2030. UNEP has urged governments in the region to accelerate the updating of national adaptation plans, many of which have not been revised in over a decade, and to enhance cooperation in the Amu Darya and Syr Darya basins. Priority areas include investment in irrigation infrastructure, early warning systems, and flood control. From Glaciers to Farms In response to UNEP’s findings, international organizations have begun to fund targeted adaptation initiatives. The Green Climate Fund, for instance, has approved $250 million for the From Glaciers to Farms program, spearheaded by the Asian Development Bank. The project aims to strengthen agricultural and water resilience in glacier-dependent countries in Central Asia, the South Caucasus, and parts of South Asia. It covers four major river basins: the Naryn and Panj in Central Asia, the Kura in the South Caucasus, and the Swat in Pakistan, benefiting approximately 13 million people. Funding will support the development of irrigation networks, reservoir construction, glacier monitoring, and early warning systems. The program also places a strong emphasis on empowering women entrepreneurs in agriculture and improving the financial sustainability of rural communities.

Green Energy

Uzbekistan’s Green Energy Output Hits 9 Billion kWh in 2025

Uzbekistan’s solar and wind power plants generated a record 9 billion kilowatt-hours (kWh) of electricity in 2025, according to data released by the Ministry of Energy on October 22. The milestone reflects the country’s growing commitment to renewable energy and aligns with the strategic goals outlined by President Shavkat Mirziyoyev in his addresses to the 78th and 80th sessions of the United Nations General Assembly. Uzbekistan aims to adapt its economy to climate change, achieve carbon neutrality, and expand the share of renewables in its energy mix. The country currently operates 12 solar photovoltaic plants and five wind farms with a combined capacity of 4,682 megawatts. These facilities have saved approximately 2.73 billion cubic meters of natural gas and prevented the emission of nearly 4 million tons of pollutants. As of October 22, total electricity generation from hydro, solar, and wind sources reached 14.52 billion kWh for the year. Renewable energy now accounts for about 23% of Uzbekistan’s total electricity output. Officials estimate that the 9 billion kWh produced by solar and wind facilities alone could meet ten months of electricity demand for 7.5 million households or provide a full year’s supply for 6 million homes. The figure highlights the country’s accelerating transition toward a more sustainable energy future.

Aral Sea

Kazakhstan Urges Regional Cooperation to Save the Aral Sea

Kazakhstan has intensified its efforts to restore its portion of the former Aral Sea, calling on neighboring Central Asian states to increase their participation in regional environmental cooperation. Once the world’s fourth-largest lake, the Aral Sea has become a symbol of ecological catastrophe. Experts warn that international efforts remain inadequate. How the Sea Died Straddling the border between Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan, the Aral Sea began to shrink in the 1960s when large-scale irrigation projects diverted water from its two main tributaries, the Amu Darya and Syr Darya rivers, to support cotton production and agriculture. A growing regional population added further strain. By 1989, the sea had split into the Northern (Small) and Southern (Large) Aral Seas. In 2014, the eastern basin of the Southern Aral Sea dried up completely. Today, the Aralkum Desert occupies much of what was once open water. Kazakhstan has since focused on restoring the Northern Aral Sea. [caption id="attachment_37684" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] A ship stranded in the desert, Moynaq, Uzbekistan; image: TCA, Stephen M. Bland[/caption] The restoration of the Northern Aral Sea has already yielded visible environmental and social benefits. Rising water levels have lowered salinity, allowing several native fish species to return. Local fisheries, once thought lost, are now active again in communities such as Aralsk. According to the Ministry of Ecology, the annual fish catch in the North Aral has risen more than tenfold since the early 2000s, reviving local employment and boosting food security. Experts note that even small ecological gains have had a profound psychological impact on residents who once witnessed the sea’s disappearance. Call for Renewed Efforts On October 15, Kazakhstan called for expanded international cooperation to protect both the Aral and Caspian Seas. First Deputy Minister of Foreign Affairs, Yerzhan Ashikbayev, speaking at the International Astana Think Tank Forum-2025, emphasized Kazakhstan’s contribution to the global climate agenda. He noted that a regional climate summit, set to be held in Astana in 2026, would provide a platform for coordinated strategies and joint decision-making among Central Asian nations. “Astana also calls for increased international participation in solving environmental problems and preserving the water resources of the Aral and Caspian Seas,” Ashikbayev said. Earlier, on October 10, Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov met with senior officials from Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, and Turkmenistan during the second meeting of the Board of the International Fund for Saving the Aral Sea (IFAS), chaired by Kazakhstan. The event highlighted the need for a united regional approach, noting that restoration of the Aral Sea can be achieved through collective action. Bektenov acknowledged the challenges of the recent growing season, but said regional cooperation had helped maintain a stable water regime in the basin. “Each country has its own national interests, and we are obliged to defend them and will always do so. But I am convinced that our common strategic, long-term priority is good neighborly relations. In solving everyday short-term tasks, we must not undermine long-term priorities. I think that we will take joint measures to ensure that issues are always...

Caspian Sea

Kazakhstan Leads Regional Efforts to Save the Caspian Sea

Today, Central Asia and the Caspian littoral states face growing challenges that extend well beyond national borders. Climate change, water scarcity, land degradation, and the shrinking of the Caspian Sea are no longer only environmental concerns but matters of regional security and sustainable development. The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest inland body of water, has become a symbol of crisis. Its rapid decline threatens ecosystems, navigation, fisheries, and food security from the Caucasus to Central Asia. Dushanbe: ecology as a new agenda for regional security A week ago, Dushanbe hosted two major international events: the “Central Asia–Russia” Summit and the meeting of the CIS Heads of State Council. At both forums, President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev called for moving from declarations to concrete action, proposing to Establish a Council of Ministers for Ecology among the Central Asian countries and Russia Develop an Interstate Program for the preservation of the Caspian Sea’s water resources Expand the use of space technologies to monitor transboundary water bodies These initiatives are part of a broader effort to build a new environmental framework for Eurasia, positioning Central Asia as a laboratory for sustainable solutions rather than a zone of ecological risk. The environmental disaster of the Caspian Sea The Caspian Sea is shrinking rapidly. According to data from Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Ecology, since 2006 its surface area has decreased by more than 31,000 square kilometers, and water levels have fallen by about 1.5 to 2 meters. Projections indicate severe consequences for spawning grounds, the Caspian seal population, port infrastructure, and the regional economy. The crisis mirrors the Aral Sea disaster, where environmental degradation caused widespread illness and social disruption. Experts warn that toxic dust from the exposed seabed could lead to respiratory diseases among millions of people. According to estimates by Save the Caspian Sea, the shoreline could retreat by as much as 89 kilometers, pushing fishing communities to the edge of survival. Falling sea levels already threaten unique wildlife, navigation, water supply, and agriculture, creating risks of migration and conflict. Because the Caspian is landlocked and not connected to the world’s oceans, its water losses cannot be naturally replenished. A coordinated response is needed, including sustainable water management, pollution control, and climate adaptation. The Caspian Sea as a crossroads of interests and contradictions The Caspian region today is more than an ecosystem; it is a geopolitical nexus where the interests of coastal states and global powers converge. Key transport routes such as the North–South Corridor and the Middle Corridor meet here, linking the economic, energy, and political interests of Russia, Iran, Turkey, China, and the European Union. The United States has also shown growing interest, particularly through its support for infrastructure projects in the South Caucasus and initiatives related to the Zangezur Corridor. Yet logistics, energy, and trade risk losing their purpose if the region’s natural foundation disappears. An ecological collapse could undermine multibillion-dollar investments, threaten food security, and turn the Caspian from a zone of cooperation into a battleground over resources. That is why saving...