Climate Change - The Times Of Central Asia

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Desertification

Turkmenistan and Spain Eye Regional Center to Combat Desertification in Central Asia

Turkmenistan and Spain have discussed closer cooperation to address desertification in Central Asia, including the possible creation of a regional center focused on land degradation. The talks took place in Ashgabat during a meeting between Turkmenistan’s Minister of Environmental Protection and Spain’s ambassador to Russia, Ricardo Martínez Vázquez, who is also accredited in Turkmenistan. The discussions followed Turkmen President Serdar Berdimuhamedov’s proposal at the United Nations General Assembly to establish a specialized regional center to combat desertification in Central Asia. The initiative is intended to strengthen cooperation among regional states and attract international expertise and funding. [caption id="attachment_41076" align="aligncenter" width="1000"] Image: mineco.gov.tm[/caption] Desertification is a growing concern across Central Asia, a region where arid and semi-arid landscapes dominate much of the territory. The United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification defines desertification as land degradation in dry areas caused by climatic variations and human activities. According to the UNCCD, more than 20% of land in Central Asia is already degraded, affecting around 30% of the population. Much of this damage is linked to unsustainable water use, intensive agriculture, overgrazing, and the long-term effects of climate change. Spain’s interest in desertification in Turkmenistan is rooted in their shared status as nations on the front lines of climate change. As one of the European countries most vulnerable to soil degradation, Spain co-launched the International Drought Resilience Alliance (IDRA) to export its expertise in "dryland" management and water conservation, which is directly applicable to the arid landscapes of Central Asia. This common challenge has fostered a diplomatic partnership focused on the United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification (UNCCD), where countries exchange strategies for land restoration and drought resilience. Beyond environmental solidarity, Spain views Turkmenistan as a critical emerging market for its advanced engineering and agricultural sectors. Major Spanish firms, such as TYPSA, are already active in the region, providing technical assistance for massive infrastructure projects, such as desalination plants on the Caspian Sea, and modernizing irrigation systems for thousands of hectares of farmland. This commercial engagement is bolstered by Spain's support for Turkmenistan’s proposal to host a Regional Center for Climate Change Technologies, which would serve as a hub for Spanish green tech in Central Asia. The bilateral relationship also aligns with the broader EU Strategy for Central Asia, which prioritizes environmental stability as a means of ensuring regional security. By helping Turkmenistan manage its dwindling water resources and combat the encroaching Karakum Desert, Spain contributes to the EU for a Green Turkmenistan initiative. This cooperation helps prevent resource-driven migration and instability, and strengthens trade ties in a region that is becoming increasingly vital for global energy and logistics. One of the most visible examples of desertification in the region is the collapse of the Aral Sea. Once the world’s fourth-largest inland lake, the Aral Sea began shrinking rapidly in the 1960s after its feeder rivers were diverted for large-scale irrigation projects. By the early 2000s, the sea had lost roughly 90% of its volume. [caption id="attachment_13621" align="aligncenter" width="2560"] Desert ships on the former...

Nature

Tajikistan’s Forests on the Brink of Extinction

Tajikistan's forests, already scarce, covering just 3% of the country's territory, are facing unprecedented threats due to climate change and human activity. These fragile ecosystems, vital for maintaining the country’s ecological balance, are rapidly disappearing, with far-reaching consequences for the environment and public safety. Since the early 1990s, Tajikistan’s forest area has shrunk significantly. Currently, forests cover approximately 423,000 hectares, compared to about 20% of the national territory a century ago. In the 19th century, tugai forests alone spanned one million hectares, now reduced more than eightfold. The causes of deforestation are complex: widespread logging during past energy crises, land conversion for agriculture, rising temperatures, and declining precipitation. These factors have accelerated ecosystem degradation and disrupted the country’s water balance. Forest loss is also directly linked to the rising frequency of natural disasters. According to the National Climate Report, the number of mudslides and landslides has increased by 25-30% over the past two decades. Experts estimate that one in five landslides in mountainous regions is directly related to deforestation. Climate warming is also hastening snow and glacier melt, resulting in sudden floods, while prolonged droughts render the soil brittle and unstable. Forests once served as a natural buffer against these effects, but are no longer able to perform this function effectively. As temperatures rise, Tajikistan’s forests are becoming increasingly susceptible to fires. In 2025 alone, wildfires scorched over 430 hectares of forest in nine regions, including Varzob and Penjikent. Compounding the crisis is inadequate infrastructure. “There are no roads, equipment cannot reach the area, and the material and technical base is poorly developed,” said Davlatali Sharifzoda, Deputy Director of the Forestry Agency. Rising temperatures are also fueling the spread of pests such as bark beetles, which threaten rare species already listed in the Red Book of endangered flora. Forest degradation is also contributing to soil erosion, particularly in mountainous areas. This poses a serious threat to agriculture, which occupies 3.7 million hectares of Tajikistan’s land. “Soils are becoming less productive due to rising temperatures and reduced rainfall, which reduces crop yields and complicates the lives of farmers,” said Murod Ergashev, a researcher at the Institute of Soil Science. Tajikistan’s forests are home to approximately 270 species of trees and shrubs, 30 of which are endangered. Biologist Rustam Muratov warns that ongoing degradation could lead to the irreversible loss of unique ecosystems and endemic species. The Tajik government is taking action. Under the Bonn Challenge, the country has committed to restoring 66,000 hectares of degraded forests by 2030. Plans include planting drought-resistant species, such as pistachio, walnut, and saxaul. The national forest sector development program for 2022-2026 aims to modernize nurseries, expand seedling production, and establish industrial plantations. The goal is to restore 15,000 hectares of forest, double forest productivity, and reduce livestock grazing in forest areas by 30%. Community involvement is key to sustainable forest management. In the Sangvor and Shokhin districts, local residents, with support from the FAO, participate in regulated harvesting of berries and medicinal plants. Tajikistan’s forests...

Climate Change

Journal Retracts Climate Study After Discovering Errors in Uzbekistan’s Economic Data

The scientific journal Nature has retracted a high-profile article on the economic impacts of climate change after significant inaccuracies were discovered in economic data related to Uzbekistan. The study, originally published online on April 17, 2024, examined how rising global temperatures could affect economic output by mid-century. According to the retraction notice, the dataset contained serious errors in Uzbekistan’s economic indicators from 1995 to 1999, which substantially altered the study’s findings. The authors acknowledged that the results were highly sensitive to the inclusion of Uzbekistan. Upon review, they found the country’s reported economic figures during that period were inaccurate. They also noted additional complications, including inconsistencies caused by transitions between data sources, and the failure to fully account for long-term economic trends. Another methodological issue, spatial auto-correlation, which affects uncertainty estimates, had not been incorporated into the original analysis. Once the authors corrected the dataset and adjusted their methodology, the study’s conclusions changed significantly. Specifically, the projected range of climate-related economic damages by 2050 shifted from 11-29% to a broader 6-31%. The statistical likelihood that damages would differ significantly under various emissions scenarios by mid-century also fell, from 99% to 90%. Due to the scale of these changes, the authors concluded that a simple correction was insufficient and opted for a full retraction. A revised version of the study, updated with corrected data and improved methodology, has been made publicly available but has not yet undergone peer review. The authors plan to resubmit the article, and Nature has stated it will update the retraction notice if the revised version is accepted for publication. The researchers thanked the members of the scientific community who identified the discrepancies, and emphasized the importance of transparent corrections in climate science.

Environment

Kyrgyzstan Launches Environmental Strategy for Lake Issyk-Kul

On December 2, Kyrgyzstan’s Cabinet of Ministers approved the Concept for the Sustainable Development of the Ecological and Economic System of Lake Issyk-Kul until 2030, along with a corresponding Action Plan. The initiative aims to protect the lake and its surrounding biosphere from intensifying environmental and human pressures, while ensuring long-term economic resilience in the region. Located in northeastern Kyrgyzstan, Issyk-Kul is the country’s largest lake, a unique ecological reserve, and one of Central Asia’s main tourist destinations. However, the newly adopted Concept reflects growing concerns over environmental degradation and the urgent need for coordinated management. Based in part on a government technical assessment, the strategy outlines a comprehensive roadmap to stabilize the lake’s ecosystem, modernize critical infrastructure, and mitigate climate risks. Climate Threats and Water Imbalance A key priority of the Concept is enhanced monitoring of Lake Issyk-Kul and its surrounding basin, particularly its water and energy resources. Climate change, including glacial retreat and reduced river inflow, has placed the basin under mounting stress. Of the 957 glaciers in the Issyk-Kul basin, covering 560.8 square kilometers, many are melting at an accelerated rate. Although roughly 120 rivers flow into the lake, only 80 reach it during summer due to irrigation withdrawals. To restore hydrological balance, the government plans to introduce modern irrigation technologies across 100,000 hectares of farmland. Officials estimate this could redirect up to 200 million cubic meters of water back into the lake each year. Between 1927 and 2003, Issyk-Kul’s water level fell by 2.75 meters, driven by declining inflow, outdated monitoring systems, and inefficient water use. The new Concept calls for restoring hydrological infrastructure, including groundwater observation stations and river hydro-posts. It also proposes strict accounting of irrigation water and a shift toward water-saving technologies in agriculture. Combatting Wastewater and Pollution Untreated wastewater remains one of the most severe threats to the lake’s ecosystem. Discharges from settlements, hotels, and tourism facilities have polluted the lake for years. The Concept aims to modernize wastewater treatment plants, expand sewage networks, and promote the reuse of treated water for irrigation purposes. Over the past five years, 47 new treatment facilities have been constructed in the Issyk-Kul region. The government now plans to reduce untreated wastewater discharge by 40%. Industrial Risks and Waste Management Environmental oversight of industrial activity, particularly at the Kumtor gold mine, the country’s largest, is another priority. The Concept calls for stricter regulation of hazardous waste and the rehabilitation of mining tailings to protect soil, groundwater, and the lake itself. Solid waste management is also being addressed. In October 2025, China’s Hunan Junxin Environmental Protection Co. Ltd. began building a waste-to-energy incineration plant in Karakol, the region’s administrative center. This will be the company’s third facility in Kyrgyzstan, following earlier projects in Bishkek and Osh. The introduction of separate waste collection systems is seen as key to reducing landfill pressure and minimizing environmental damage. To address air quality, the Concept promotes modernization of outdated heating systems, emission controls on industry and transport, and the adoption of...

Water resources

Kazakhstan Trades Electricity for Water in Bid to Mitigate Summer Drought Risks

Central Asia is entering a new phase in the management of its water-energy nexus, moving from declarations to practical coordination. A trilateral protocol signed in Almaty by Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Uzbekistan marked a significant step toward stabilizing the region’s water regime amid escalating climate risks. Brokered under Kazakhstan’s chairmanship, the agreement aims to balance the load on the Toktogul Reservoir, the main regulating structure of the Syr Darya basin. Kyrgyzstan typically increases winter water discharges to generate electricity, which reduces irrigation water availability downstream during summer. Under the new deal, Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan will supply Kyrgyzstan with electricity during winter, in return for Kyrgyzstan's commitment to store water and ensure its release during the 2026 growing season. The Almaty Protocol complements the existing plan for filling the Shardara Reservoir, which aims to accumulate 11 cubic kilometers of water by April 1, 2026. Achieving this target hinges on Toktogul’s operations. Without external support, Kyrgyzstan’s energy infrastructure would struggle to meet the requirement. Supplemental electricity from Astana and Tashkent thus forms the economic backbone of this arrangement. Longstanding disparities in regional water and energy needs remain a source of instability. Kyrgyzstan requires water in winter for hydropower, while Kazakhstan, especially its Turkestan and Kyzylorda regions, relies on it in summer for irrigation. Recent water shortages have pushed the countries toward more pragmatic coordination. Uzbekistan has committed to managing the technical conditions for transit and balancing inter-system flows. Despite facing its own energy shortfall and aging infrastructure, Kazakhstan is participating in regional stabilization to avert socio-economic risks in its southern provinces. External factors are adding urgency to regional cooperation. Afghanistan’s construction of the Qosh-Tepa Canal is expected to reduce the Amu Darya’s water balance by 20-25%. Although Uzbekistan is most directly affected, the resulting pressure on water systems could also impact the Syr Darya, on which southern Kazakhstan heavily depends. Internally, Kazakhstan faces persistent challenges. Water loss during transport reaches up to 40-50% due to outdated canal infrastructure. Rice cultivation continues in the water-intensive Kyzylorda region, while water-saving technologies are used on only about 30% of irrigated land. These new agreements suggest that Central Asian countries can rapidly implement collective mechanisms in response to shared threats. In effect, elements of a regional Water and Energy Consortium are already operating in a de facto, ad hoc manner. Water, energy, and food security are increasingly seen as interconnected resources requiring coordinated governance. For Kazakhstan, the priority now is to institutionalize these provisional agreements. If the “electricity-for-water” model can be formalized into a durable framework, it could stand as one of the most significant accomplishments of the country’s regional diplomacy.

COP30

From Glaciers to Green Goals: Central Asia at COP30

The UN Climate Change Conference (COP30) in Belém, Brazil, concluded with a hard-fought global deal that boosts climate finance for developing countries but avoids any promise to phase out fossil fuels. Amid this uneasy compromise, the Central Asian nations worked to get their priorities heard. Their delegations pressed for more climate funding, recognition of their unique vulnerabilities, and support for regional initiatives, with mixed results. A United Regional Voice on Climate Home to over 80 million people, Central Asia entered COP30 with a goal outlined as “five countries, one voice,” after a regional dialogue in Dushanbe ahead of the summit forged a common stance on shared threats such as melting glaciers and water stress. The region has already warmed about 2.2 °C – faster than the global average – and glaciers are shrinking by roughly 0.5% each year, Uzbekistan’s environment minister Aziz Abdukhakimov warned in Belém. He noted worsening land degradation and vanishing water resources, underscoring Central Asia’s acute climate vulnerability. In response, Uzbekistan unveiled a new pledge to cut its greenhouse gas emissions by 50% by 2035 (from 2010 levels) by expanding renewable energy and forests. Such actions align with COP30’s call for developed nations to triple adaptation finance by 2035 to help vulnerable countries cope. “COP30 showed that climate cooperation is alive and kicking, keeping humanity in the fight for a livable planet,” UN climate chief Simon Stiell said in his closing speech, praising delegates for persisting despite global divisions. National Commitments and Initiatives Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy and emitter, took on a visible role at COP30. Its delegation was led by Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nyssanbayev, who addressed the summit’s opening session. Nyssanbayev reaffirmed Kazakhstan’s commitment to the Paris Agreement goals, noting the country has adopted a “Revised Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) and a National Adaptation Plan” with more ambitious targets to cut emissions and bolster resilience. “It is crucial for us to consistently work toward achieving our climate goals,” he stated. Nyssanbayev emphasized the importance of climate finance for developing countries, highlighting the new “Baku–Belém Roadmap” to mobilize $1.3 trillion annually by 2035 and urging support for a significantly increased funding mechanism. Kazakhstan also became one of only seven nations – and the sole Central Asian country – to sign a joint declaration pledging “near zero” methane emissions from its fossil fuel sector. In a sign of ongoing regional leadership, Nyssanbayev invited all delegates to attend a Central Asia Regional Environmental Summit that Kazakhstan will host in 2026, aiming to sustain climate cooperation beyond COP30. Kyrgyzstan, given its geography, used the summit to champion the mountain agenda and the plight of high-altitude communities on the frontlines of climate change. The Kyrgyz Republic chairs the UNFCCC’s Mountain Group and sent a delegation led by Deputy Chairman of the Cabinet of Ministers, Edil Baisalov, and Dinara Kemelova, the President’s Special Representative for the Mountain Agenda. In the first week of COP30, Kemelova delivered keynote remarks at multiple high-level sessions, calling for strengthened international support and...