Climate Change - The Times Of Central Asia

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Regional integration

Tokayev Calls for Global Action at UN LLDC3 Summit in Turkmenistan

At the Third United Nations Conference on the Landlocked Developing Countries (LLDC3), held from August 5-8 in the Turkmen resort town of Awaza, Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev urged the international community to deepen cooperation, enhance regional connectivity, and take decisive collective action in support of the 32 countries that lack direct access to the sea and remain on the periphery of global trade. A Global Call for Equality and Interconnectedness Speaking at the plenary session, Tokayev highlighted Kazakhstan’s leadership in advancing the LLDC agenda. In 2003, Almaty hosted the first UN conference on landlocked countries, which culminated in the Almaty Programme of Action (APoA). Two decades later, the president noted, structural barriers, such as limited market access, underdeveloped infrastructure, and high exposure to geopolitical shocks, remain largely unchanged. “Landlocked countries should be seen as equal and promising partners in global development,” Tokayev said. “Our voice must be louder and our cooperation deeper.” [caption id="attachment_34680" align="alignnone" width="300"] @akorda[/caption] The Awaza Action Programme: A Roadmap for 2024-2034 The centerpiece of LLDC3 was the adoption of the Awaza Action Programme for the coming decade, structured around five strategic priorities: structural transformation of economies, development of sustainable infrastructure, trade facilitation, regional integration, and resilience. Kazakhstan endorsed the plan and called for stronger political and financial support from transit countries, international institutions, and private investors. Tokayev emphasized the need for innovative financing tools to mobilize investment in transport, energy, and digital infrastructure. Addressing the Climate Challenge The president also highlighted the disproportionate climate-related vulnerabilities faced by LLDCs, including water scarcity, glacial melt, and desertification. He called for a balanced and inclusive approach to climate policy and invited participants to the Regional Environmental Summit, scheduled for April 2026 in Astana, to be co-hosted with the United Nations. Tokayev also pointed to Kazakhstan’s recent achievements in digital innovation and sustainability, citing the launch of the Alem.AI Artificial Intelligence Center and the commissioning of a new national supercomputer. “We are open to international scientific cooperation,” he said. [caption id="attachment_34681" align="alignnone" width="300"] @akorda[/caption] Central Asia as a Model of Regional Resilience Despite geographic constraints, Tokayev presented Central Asia as a case study in overcoming isolation through cooperation. “Geography does not determine destiny,” he said. “With political will, strategic investment, and international partnership, lack of access to the sea can become not a barrier but a source of growth.” Kazakhstan is investing heavily in transport corridors such as the Middle Corridor (Trans-Caspian International Route) and the North-South Corridor, strengthening its role in the Eurasian logistics network. Energy Diplomacy and Regional Projects On the sidelines of the conference, Central Asian leaders convened for informal talks, where they discussed priority areas of cooperation, including energy. Topics included development of Turkmenistan’s Galkynysh Gas Field, one of the world’s largest, and ongoing transport projects such as the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran railway and the Turkmenbashi-Garabogaz-Kazakhstan border highway. According to the UN, trade costs in LLDCs are 74% higher than in coastal states, and cross-border shipping takes twice as long. Collectively, these countries account for only 1.2% of...

Caspian Sea

The Caspian Sea Hits Historic Low

The Caspian Sea has dropped to its lowest recorded level, now sitting at less than 29 meters below sea level. The northern basin, bordering Russia and Kazakhstan, is shrinking particularly rapidly. As the water recedes, the exposed seabed is threatening key marine ecosystems. Experts warn the decline is already causing serious disruption to biodiversity in the region. Declining Volga Flow and Climate Change The downward trend in sea levels began in the 1990s and has accelerated since 2020, with a nearly 80-centimeter drop in the past four years. The primary factor is a decrease in the annual flow of the Volga River, which supplies approximately 80% of the Caspian's inflow and contributes 64% to the lake's total water balance. In recent years, the Volga’s annual discharge has ranged between 210 and 232 cubic kilometers, well below the historical average of around 250 cubic kilometers. At the same time, rising air temperatures are increasing evaporation rates, further depleting water levels. Scientists link these changes to global climate change and the ongoing rise in greenhouse gas emissions. Ecological and Economic Impact Human activity is compounding the problem. Significant water extraction from rivers for agriculture, industry, and municipal use is reducing the volume of water reaching the sea. Russia’s Ministry of Natural Resources is currently developing a comprehensive program to adapt to these shifting environmental conditions. The initiative aims to enhance forecasting, mitigate the consequences of shallowing, and adjust economic activities to reflect the new hydrological realities. Experts suggest that only a sustained annual inflow of around 270 cubic kilometers, comparable to levels recorded in the 1970s and 1990s, can halt the lake's ongoing decline. Changing Coastlines and Public Concern A recent video by Kazakh filmmaker Adai Myrzatay has stirred widespread attention on social media. The footage juxtaposes images of the Caspian coastline in 2013 and 2025. Twelve years ago, the pier was surrounded by open water and untouched shoreline. Today, the water has receded dramatically. Bushes now encircle the pier, and high-rise buildings stand where the shoreline once lay. The video has been viewed over 1.5 million times. The falling water level is leading to the loss of biological diversity and shrinking spawning grounds for species such as the Caspian seal and sturgeon. The shallowing is also disrupting shipping and fishing operations and raising the risk of international disputes over increasingly scarce water resources. A Shared Challenge for Five Nations The Caspian Sea, the world’s largest enclosed inland body of water, receives inflow from more than 130 rivers, including the Volga, Ural, Terek, Sulak, and Samur. Its coastline is shared by five countries: Russia, Kazakhstan, Turkmenistan, Azerbaijan, and Iran. While the Volga's inflow increased slightly to 232 cubic kilometers in 2024, it remains insufficient to reverse or even stabilize the sea’s decline. Experts agree that regional cooperation and a coordinated, long-term strategy for water resource management are essential to confronting this environmental crisis.

Extreme Weather

World Bank Report: Central Asia Faces Rising Risks from Extreme Heat

Cities across Central Asia are becoming increasingly vulnerable to extreme heat, posing significant risks to public health, economic productivity, and infrastructure, according to a new report by the World Bank. The study, which covers 70 urban areas in Europe and Central Asia, including Astana, Bishkek, Ashgabat, Tashkent, and several smaller cities in Tajikistan and Turkmenistan, highlights the urgent need for heat adaptation strategies. Rising Mortality and Economic Losses The report finds that heat-related mortality is already a serious concern. In Ashgabat, an estimated 25-28 people per 100,000 die annually due to extreme heat. In Astana, Bishkek, and Tashkent, the toll is slightly lower, at approximately 19-21 deaths per 100,000. Without intervention, annual heat-related deaths in cities like Astana and Tashkent could rise dramatically, reaching between 10,000 and 23,000 by 2090. Economic impacts are also mounting. In 2023, higher temperatures resulted in the loss of over 87,000 full-time jobs across the region. Uzbekistan alone saw more than 22,000 job losses, while nearly 18,000 were reported in Azerbaijan. By 2050, heat-related economic losses could exceed 2% of GDP in some urban centers, such as Ashgabat. Infrastructure Under Strain Rising temperatures are damaging infrastructure across Central Asia. In Kyrgyzstan, extreme heat causes deterioration to nearly 200 kilometers of road annually, driving up repair costs and disrupting transportation. Kazakhstan is facing similar challenges: recent heatwaves have warped asphalt and concrete surfaces in the southern and northeastern regions of the country. Adaptation Measures and Challenges Despite these threats, the report outlines viable solutions. Urban greening, such as planting trees and creating shaded areas, can help cool city streets. Retrofitting buildings to improve thermal insulation without increasing energy use, establishing early warning systems, and creating cooling centers are also recommended. Urban planning strategies should incorporate climate resilience by using heat-tolerant materials and factoring climate risks into infrastructure design. Investment in parks and green spaces, alongside the use of heat vulnerability maps, can guide targeted interventions. However, the report warns that a lack of funding may hinder progress. Without innovative financing mechanisms, many adaptation plans could be stalled despite their potential to mitigate long-term risks. The World Bank concludes that while the impacts of rising temperatures are already being felt across Central Asia, timely action can prevent far more serious consequences. Policymakers are urged to prioritize heat adaptation to safeguard lives, livelihoods, and infrastructure in an increasingly warming world.

Climate Change

Kyrgyzstan Endorses National Program to Strengthen Climate Cooperation with Green Climate Fund

Kyrgyzstan has taken a step toward climate resilience by approving its Country Program for Cooperation with the Green Climate Fund (GCF) through 2027. The program defines national priorities for climate action and outlines a portfolio of projects seeking international funding. The GCF, the principal financial mechanism under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), supports developing nations in mitigating and adapting to the impacts of climate change. Kyrgyzstan’s newly approved framework highlights several priority initiatives: Reducing greenhouse gas emissions in the housing sector Enhancing ecosystem resilience and introducing climate-smart water treatment systems in the Issyk-Kul region Promoting climate-resilient agriculture and water resource management in the Batken region Improving disaster preparedness and access to climate data Expanding climate finance mechanisms for small and medium enterprises (SMEs) and households According to the Ministry of Natural Resources, Ecology and Technical Supervision, Kyrgyzstan mobilized significant international climate finance between 2010 and 2023. Major contributors included the World Bank ($303.7 million), the Asian Development Bank ($194.4 million), German institutions and climate funds ($73.1 million), and the United Nations Development Programme ($63.1 million). These funds were disbursed as a mix of grants and concessional loans. Data from the International Aid Transparency Initiative (IATI) indicate that energy projects received the largest share of this climate financing ($306.6 million), followed by agriculture, forestry, and fisheries ($140.5 million), and water-related projects ($122.8 million). Between 2011 and 2021, Kyrgyzstan received approximately $620 million in international technical assistance for climate-related initiatives, with grants comprising about 81% of total funding. The new Country Program reflects Kyrgyzstan’s broader commitment to sustainable development and climate adaptation, particularly in vulnerable regions such as Batken and Issyk-Kul. National priorities continue to focus on energy efficiency, risk reduction, and scaling green finance solutions for local communities and businesses.

Climate Change

How Climate Change Is Damaging Agriculture and Food Security in Tajikistan

Over the past 30 years, cotton production in Tajikistan has dropped by a staggering 56%. Among the many contributing factors are a lack of investment, outdated agricultural technology, and, notably, climate change. While humanity is not yet capable of stopping climate change, there are ways to adapt, prevent or mitigate the consequences of natural disasters, glacier melt, droughts, and to preserve biodiversity. Agricultural GDP is growing — but slowly The agricultural sector is among the most vulnerable to climate change, yet it remains the cornerstone of food security in Tajikistan. Moreover, a significant portion of the population depends on agriculture for their livelihood. According to official statistics, Tajikistan’s population exceeds 10 million, with more than 7 million living in rural areas. Of the total population, 60% are engaged in agricultural activities, while the official unemployment rate stands at 7.9%. Data from the Agency on Statistics under the President of the Republic of Tajikistan shows that agriculture contributes approximately 25% of the country’s GDP and accounts for a similar share of exports. The sector also generates 35% of national tax revenues. Beyond food production, agriculture supplies raw materials to various industries, meaning that the livelihoods of countless small and medium-sized enterprises depend directly on its productivity. Despite modest growth in gross agricultural output, the pace remains slow. At the same time, food prices continue to rise on domestic markets, making it increasingly difficult for families to afford a balanced diet. Local farmers and entrepreneurs often attribute price hikes to fluctuations in the U.S. dollar exchange rate, especially given the sector’s reliance on imported fertilizers, machinery, and packaging Food Security at Risk When measured in U.S. dollars, agricultural income has remained relatively stagnant—indicating a lack of real progress and underscoring the need for urgent reforms. Compounding the issue is Tajikistan’s annual population growth rate of 2.7%, which places additional strain on the food system. Without strategic investments in irrigation, land expansion, and climate-resilient technologies, the country risks facing a systemic food shortage in the coming decades. According to the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), 60% of Tajikistan’s population suffers from food insecurity—meaning they lack sufficient access to the calories and nutrients needed for a healthy and active life. An Idea in Need of Investment Matlub Rakhmonov, an agricultural specialist, analyzed the impact of climate change on Tajikistan's agrarian sector, particularly in horticulture. “For more than ten years now, in several regions of Tajikistan, some small and medium-sized business owners involved in horticulture have not only failed to secure a full harvest, but have also incurred losses,” says Rakhmonov. “The reason for this is increasingly due to unusually warm days at the end of winter, which cause fruit-bearing trees to bloom prematurely. Then, in late April and early May, sharp cold snaps hit, the blossoms fall, and the resulting crops are destroyed.” Moreover, climate change has led to frequent natural anomalies, causing some traditional tree species to stop responding to seasonal changes. In the past, Tajikistan made widespread efforts to implement intensive orchard...

Carbon Emission

Kazakhstan Considers Carbon Accounting System to Boost Emissions Transparency

Aydar Kazybayev, co-founder of the National Academy of Corporate Governance, has proposed the introduction of a carbon accounting system in Kazakhstan. He argues that such a system would enable the automatic calculation of greenhouse gas emissions at industrial enterprises and ensure more transparent and objective reporting. “Today in Kazakhstan, greenhouse gas emission reports remain virtually unchanged, and in some cases have worsened. This is due to different companies conducting annual verifications without a unified verification history,” Kazybayev said at the Central Asia Thermal Power Forum. He announced that a digital platform is scheduled for launch by the end of the year, aimed at integrating all combined heat and power (CHP) plants into a single emissions database. The system would allow companies to maintain carbon records independently via an aggregator or delegate the task to operators managing centralized “carbon accounts.” “Our main objective is to reduce the administrative burden on companies required to submit such reports,” Kazybayev emphasized. According to Kazakhstan’s most recent official submissions to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), total greenhouse gas emissions stood at 375.4 million tons in 2020, declined to 328.4 million tons in 2021, and rose again to 353 million tons in 2022. The energy sector remains the largest contributor, accounting for 288.5 million tons in 2020, 251.4 million in 2021, and 281.9 million in 2022. Kazybayev also cited technological innovations in China as potential models. Specifically, he highlighted China’s Smart Green Energy platform, which enables real-time monitoring of coal consumption and emissions, and generates both daily and annual reports. This system, currently in use at all coal-fired power plants in China, costs approximately $30,000. “Such tools would be highly beneficial for Kazakhstan. They help accurately estimate resource usage and identify inefficiencies,” Kazybayev explained. He also pointed to China’s modernization of coal-fired thermal power plants, where heat pumps and geothermal technologies are being adopted. These systems extract thermal energy from the air, ground, or water and integrate it into heating networks. Air pollution remains a critical concern across Central Asia. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the World Bank has attributed over 65,000 premature deaths annually to regional air pollution.