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Cotton

Tajik Cotton Farming in Crisis: Why Production Is Falling and What the Government Is Doing About It

Tajikistan’s cotton industry is facing a deepening crisis. Production has plummeted, costs have outstripped prices, and a lack of qualified specialists is further straining the sector’s viability. Once a cornerstone of the national economy, cotton is becoming increasingly unprofitable for farmers, prompting government efforts to reverse the decline. Harvest and Export Decline Over the past two years, cotton production has dropped dramatically. The 2022 harvest totaled 404,700 tons, but by 2024 this figure had fallen nearly 40% to 253,200 tons. Cotton fiber processing also decreased, from 127,100 tons in 2022 to 106,900 tons in 2024. This contraction has impacted exports. In 2024, Tajikistan exported 100,500 tons of fiber worth $170.1 million, $28.5 million less than the previous year. The average export price fell to $1,692 per ton. Iran remains the primary buyer, accounting for 68% of Tajik cotton exports. Other destinations include Turkey (15%), China (8.4%), Russia (4.4%), Pakistan (3%), Georgia (1%), Bangladesh (0.2%), and Latvia (0.1%). Strategic Resource Under Pressure On August 26, the Ministry of Economic Development and Trade hosted a meeting of the Interdepartmental Headquarters for Macroeconomic Policy. First Deputy Minister Ashurboy Solehzoda reaffirmed that cotton cultivation and processing remain “strategic directions” for the country. He emphasized the crop's importance not only for economic stability but also for maintaining Tajikistan’s export potential. However, authorities acknowledge that without modernization and deeper processing, the country risks losing its position in the global cotton market. What’s Behind the Decline? Multiple factors have contributed to the sector’s downturn in 2025. Abnormal spring rainfall delayed sowing by 65 days, shifting ripening schedules and reducing overall crop quality. Summer heatwaves and premature irrigation by farmers led to widespread root rot, compounding losses. Economic factors have also played a key role. The average purchase price for cotton remains at 6-7 somoni per kilogram, while production costs range from 7-8 somoni, making cultivation unprofitable and discouraging continued investment by farmers. A severe shortage of qualified personnel is another critical issue. Approximately 200,000 farms lack agronomists, and many textile enterprises struggle to find staff trained to operate modern machinery. The cost of electricity further burdens the sector, accounting for up to 15% of cotton yarn production costs. Processors receive no seasonal discounts to mitigate expenses. Additionally, limited access to affordable credit has prevented enterprises from upgrading equipment or expanding capacity. Government Response The government has introduced a set of tariff and non-tariff incentives aimed at stimulating processing and expanding textile production. However, experts argue that these measures are underutilized and have yet to make a meaningful impact on domestic supply or budget revenues.

Cotton

Uzbekistan Targets Premium Global Brands with U.S. Cotton Imports

Uzbekistan, one of the world’s largest cotton producers, may begin importing cotton from the United States, a move that has prompted public debate. Inomjon Abdurakhmonov, Head of the Foreign Trade Department at the Ministry of Investment, Industry and Trade, explained that the decision is aimed at helping Uzbekistan secure a foothold in premium global markets and boost the reputation of its textile exports. A rapidly growing textile sector Over the past seven years, Uzbekistan’s textile industry has expanded dramatically. Since 2017, cotton yarn output has more than doubled from 412,000 to 970,000 tons, knitted fabric production has risen from 68,000 to 312,000 tons, and ready-made garment output has jumped from 960 million to 3.1 billion pieces. Exports have grown from about $1.1 billion in 2016 to $2.8 billion in 2024. This growth stems from a deliberate policy shift away from exporting raw cotton in favor of domestic processing. Today, 100% of the national harvest is used locally, feeding factories that now export finished goods to more than 50 countries. Why import cotton? Abdurakhmonov emphasized that imports would supplement, not replace, domestic supply. “Uzbek cotton is fully consumed domestically, but our factories still operate at about 75% capacity,” he said. “Premium-grade imports allow us to expand production and meet the strict quality standards of top global brands.” Similar strategies are used by other textile leaders such as Turkey, India, Vietnam, and China, all of which import high-grade cotton to meet market requirements. The U.S. advantage The plan focuses on importing Strict Middling, a high-grade U.S. fiber recognized for its consistency, strength, and sustainability credentials under the U.S. Cotton Trust Protocol. “For major brands like Levi’s, Ralph Lauren, Puma, and Gap, ‘Made with U.S. Cotton’ is not optional, it’s a prerequisite,” Abdurakhmonov explained. Such quality cannot easily be replicated in Uzbekistan’s climate, and producing comparable fiber locally would take at least five years. Financing the imports Purchases will be supported by the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s GSM-102 program, which offers credit guarantees and deferred repayment terms of 12-18 months. This allows Uzbek manufacturers to sell finished goods before paying for the raw cotton, covering up to 98% of the deal value. Long-term benefits While U.S. cotton costs 15-20% more than domestic fiber, it will be used selectively for contracts where premium quality is mandatory, with higher margins offsetting the expense. Beyond immediate production gains, Uzbekistan aims to enhance its global textile reputation and strengthen its position in supply chains. Preferential access under the EU’s GSP+ system has already nearly doubled exports to Europe, from $74 million to $140 million and similar results are expected from U.S. partnerships. “Importing U.S. cotton is not about shortages, it’s about credibility,” Abdurakhmonov said. “This strategy will secure our place in premium markets and create long-term opportunities for our economy.”

Forced Labor

State Workers in Turkmenistan Once Again Forced to Fund Cotton Harvest

As the cotton harvest begins in Turkmenistan, reports from the independent outlet turkmen.news indicates that the annual season is once again marred by forced labor practices. Pay or Work the Fields In Lebap and Mary provinces, state employees, including teachers, doctors, and workers from the Turkmenabat silk production association and a local knitwear factory, are being compelled to contribute financially toward the harvest. The daily levy stands at 30 manats (approximately $1.50). Since August 3, similar demands have reportedly extended to medical and educational staff in Mary province. As in previous years, state workers are frequently presented with a coercive “choice”: pay for a replacement harvester or work in the fields themselves. Some avoid field labor by sending their children in their place. Reform Promises Fall Short In 2024, the Turkmen government, in cooperation with the International Labour Organization, unveiled a roadmap for eradicating forced labor in the cotton industry. The plan outlined key measures to safeguard workers’ rights and address systemic abuses. Despite this, rights groups, including the Turkmen Initiative for Human Rights, the Progres Foundation, and the Cotton Campaign, warn that little can change while the state maintains total control over the cotton supply chain, from seed distribution to raw cotton procurement. These organizations argue that genuine reform requires guarantees of free speech and the right to organize, allowing citizens to report abuses and form independent trade unions. In reality, however, workplace union leaders are reportedly tasked with collecting money from employees and organizing labor schedules. Experts note that this top-down mobilization underscores the state-driven nature of the system, perpetuating a cycle of coercion rather than addressing its root causes.

Cotton

Tajik Cotton Exports to Iran Reach Record Levels

Since the start of 2025, Iran has imported more than 30,000 tons of cotton fiber from Tajikistan, accounting for over 83% of the country’s total foreign sales of this product. The value of these exports has reached $45.7 million. Geography and Structure of Exports Khurshed Zuhurzoda, First Deputy Director of the Tajikistan Export Agency, said Iran’s demand is driven by a shortage of raw materials for its domestic textile industry. According to the Iranian Cotton Fund, the country’s annual cotton demand stands at around 180,000 tons, while domestic production meets only 70,000-80,000 tons. Geographic proximity and the high quality of Tajik fiber have made it one of Iran’s primary import sources. From January to June 2025, Tajikistan exported 36,300 tons of cotton fiber worth $54.6 million to foreign markets. Of this, more than 30,900 tons, 83.61% in both value and volume, went to Iran. Other buyers included Russia ($4 million), Turkey ($1.97 million), Pakistan ($1.1 million), and China ($286,000). The Khatlon region was the largest domestic supplier, providing $29.6 million worth of exports (54.22%), followed by Sughd with $25 million (45.78%). The average export price per ton was $1,506. Negotiations on Expanding Cooperation On July 30, during the 10th Consultation of the Ministers of Agriculture of Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) member states in China, Tajik Agriculture Minister Kurbon Hakimzoda met with Iranian Agriculture Minister Gholamreza Nouri. Talks covered topics ranging from cotton supplies to the introduction of smart farming systems. Priorities included food security, development of greenhouse complexes, fish farming, organic agriculture, digital technologies, internationally accredited laboratories, climate change adaptation, and joint projects for product processing and packaging. Nouri emphasized that strengthening agricultural ties with neighboring countries is a strategic priority for Iran. Hakimzoda, in turn, noted “satisfactory progress” in implementing existing agreements. Prospects: Moving from Raw Cotton to Value-Added Exports Tajikistan forecasts raw cotton production to grow from 422,000 tons in 2026 to 437,000 tons in 2028. Cotton fiber output is projected at 150,000 tons, while yarn production will increase from 49,000 to 54,000 tons. The government’s export strategy aims to gradually reduce unprocessed cotton exports, from 72,000 tons in 2026 to 56,000 tons in 2028, while boosting yarn exports from 14,000 to 18,000 tons. Agricultural expert Bakhodur Khaito said this shift could alter trade arrangements with Iran. “With a reduction in direct fiber supplies, Dushanbe could offer Tehran more yarn, develop joint ventures, localize processing, and promote finished products to third markets,” he noted.

Cotton

Kazakhstan’s Cotton Sector Continues to Shrink

Kazakhstan’s cotton industry is in protracted decline, with key indicators – acreage, harvest volume, and profitability – showing sustained deterioration. Analysts at Energyprom.kz report that small farms, which dominate the sector, are increasingly abandoning cotton in favor of less expensive crops. A Smallholder Sector in Crisis According to the National Statistics Bureau, raw cotton production totaled 61.2 billion KZT ($117.4 million) in 2023, down 8% in real terms from the previous year. This marked the second consecutive year of decline in the physical volume index (PVI), reflecting waning interest in cotton cultivation. The sector comprises around 25,000 agricultural enterprises and employs approximately 70,000 people. Small farms produce 91% of total output but are experiencing the steepest decline: their PVI fell to 88.6% in 2023. In contrast, large enterprises, which account for a minor share of production, saw a 50.7% increase in output. Cotton is grown exclusively in the Turkestan region, where the cultivated area has shrunk from 223,700 hectares in 2003 to just 106,400 hectares in 2023. The gross harvest last year was 301,700 tons, 35.4% less than two decades ago. Modern agricultural technologies have helped maintain relatively stable yields despite shrinking acreage. Water Shortages Undermine the Industry The Ministry of Agriculture identifies severe irrigation water shortages as the primary obstacle to cotton production. While some losses have been mitigated through drip irrigation systems, such technologies are affordable only to large or investor-backed farms. For most smallholders, cotton cultivation has become too costly, prompting a shift to alternative crops. The problem is systemic. In a parliamentary inquiry, Senator Murat Kadyrbek highlighted inadequate financing for agronomic measures and low purchase prices, which leave many farmers barely covering operating costs. Producers are seeking loan deferrals until they can secure income from harvests. Eighty-five percent of Kazakhstan’s cotton is exported as raw material, with only 15% processed domestically. Even this limited share struggles to find buyers. In 2023, domestic processing plants operated at just 19.5% of their design capacity, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. Despite the launch of new facilities, including some with foreign investment, processing remains the industry's weakest link. Rising Costs, Competitive Pressures High processing costs pose a major challenge. Processing cotton in Kazakhstan costs 150,000-170,000 KZT (approximately $300) per tonne, triple the cost in neighboring Uzbekistan and China. Compounding the issue is poor fiber quality. While the global market demands fiber lengths of 35-60 cm, Kazakh cotton typically falls in the 20-25 cm range. “To improve product quality and competitiveness, a dedicated state program for cotton development is urgently needed,” members of parliament urged. They advocate for collaborative action from both government agencies and producers to revitalize the sector.

Agriculture

Tajikistan Pursues Cotton Reform with EU Backing

The European Union’s support for green transitions presents a real opportunity for Tajikistan to achieve sustainable agricultural development, particularly in the cotton industry, according to Mizrob Amirbekov, an agricultural development expert. Amirbekov highlighted this potential, underscoring the importance of international assistance in modernizing the sector, addressing environmental and social challenges, and establishing a fair and transparent production system. Rising Demand, Persistent Problems As global demand for environmentally friendly textiles grows, Tajikistan has a unique chance to establish a sustainable model for cotton production, Amirbekov explained. Increased interest in natural fabrics, driven by both demographic growth and technological advancements, is pushing the industry toward transformation. However, this economic potential is clouded by persistent challenges, including environmental stress, social risks such as forced labor, and a lack of transparency across the supply chain. The global cotton sector has long faced scrutiny over high water consumption, widespread pesticide use, and unethical labor practices. In response, consumers and international regulators are increasingly pressing for a shift to more sustainable production methods. EU Investment and National Reform Tajikistan has begun responding to these challenges. In 2024, it approved the National Strategy for the Development of the Cotton and Textile Industry through 2040, prioritizing modernization, cost reduction, and the expansion of high-value-added production chains. The European Union is playing a central role in this transformation, having allocated a €19.88 million grant to support the sector’s green transition. The funds aim to advance digital technologies, assist small and medium-sized enterprises, and help the industry adapt to climate change impacts, from droughts to rising temperatures. “This is not merely financial aid, it’s an opportunity to build a truly sustainable cotton production system,” said Amirbekov. “Farmers and buyers need to understand the principles of sustainability and how agriculture can become a driver of the green economy.” Ongoing Social and Environmental Challenges Despite signs of progress, Amirbekov noted that significant problems persist. Farmers report that forced labor continues in some areas, with schoolchildren and unrelated government employees involved in cotton harvesting, practices that violate Tajikistan’s international commitments and damage the credibility of its organic cotton sector. Environmental impacts are equally severe. Producing a single T-shirt can consume up to 2,700 liters of water, and nearly a kilogram of pesticides may be used per hectare. Amirbekov stressed the need to adopt certified standards such as the Global Organic Textile Standard (GOTS), to promote sustainable cotton varieties, and to implement precision farming. “Climate change is already reducing yields, droughts, floods, and temperature fluctuations are becoming more common,” he warned. To address this, he advocates for sustainable seed varieties, efficient irrigation, and participation in carbon reduction programs. Amirbekov also criticized the cotton supply chain as fragmented and poorly regulated, undermining trust from international buyers and complicating the enforcement of sustainability standards. He called for the introduction of digital platforms to track supply chains in real time. Social inequality is another concern: women and small-scale farmers often face limited access to markets and lack property rights. Incorporating fair trade practices, supporting cooperatives, and enforcing...