Kazakhstan’s Cotton Sector Continues to Shrink
Kazakhstan’s cotton industry is in protracted decline, with key indicators – acreage, harvest volume, and profitability – showing sustained deterioration. Analysts at Energyprom.kz report that small farms, which dominate the sector, are increasingly abandoning cotton in favor of less expensive crops. A Smallholder Sector in Crisis According to the National Statistics Bureau, raw cotton production totaled 61.2 billion KZT ($117.4 million) in 2023, down 8% in real terms from the previous year. This marked the second consecutive year of decline in the physical volume index (PVI), reflecting waning interest in cotton cultivation. The sector comprises around 25,000 agricultural enterprises and employs approximately 70,000 people. Small farms produce 91% of total output but are experiencing the steepest decline: their PVI fell to 88.6% in 2023. In contrast, large enterprises, which account for a minor share of production, saw a 50.7% increase in output. Cotton is grown exclusively in the Turkestan region, where the cultivated area has shrunk from 223,700 hectares in 2003 to just 106,400 hectares in 2023. The gross harvest last year was 301,700 tons, 35.4% less than two decades ago. Modern agricultural technologies have helped maintain relatively stable yields despite shrinking acreage. Water Shortages Undermine the Industry The Ministry of Agriculture identifies severe irrigation water shortages as the primary obstacle to cotton production. While some losses have been mitigated through drip irrigation systems, such technologies are affordable only to large or investor-backed farms. For most smallholders, cotton cultivation has become too costly, prompting a shift to alternative crops. The problem is systemic. In a parliamentary inquiry, Senator Murat Kadyrbek highlighted inadequate financing for agronomic measures and low purchase prices, which leave many farmers barely covering operating costs. Producers are seeking loan deferrals until they can secure income from harvests. Eighty-five percent of Kazakhstan’s cotton is exported as raw material, with only 15% processed domestically. Even this limited share struggles to find buyers. In 2023, domestic processing plants operated at just 19.5% of their design capacity, according to the Bureau of National Statistics. Despite the launch of new facilities, including some with foreign investment, processing remains the industry's weakest link. Rising Costs, Competitive Pressures High processing costs pose a major challenge. Processing cotton in Kazakhstan costs 150,000-170,000 KZT (approximately $300) per tonne, triple the cost in neighboring Uzbekistan and China. Compounding the issue is poor fiber quality. While the global market demands fiber lengths of 35-60 cm, Kazakh cotton typically falls in the 20-25 cm range. “To improve product quality and competitiveness, a dedicated state program for cotton development is urgently needed,” members of parliament urged. They advocate for collaborative action from both government agencies and producers to revitalize the sector.