Caspian Sea Shrinking Faster Than Expected, Risking Aral Sea-Like Disaster

The Caspian Sea is shoaling at an alarming rate, raising concerns among environmentalists in the countries that border it. According to the global movement Save The Caspian Sea, the sea level has dropped by two meters over the past 18 years. If this trend continues, the water level could fall by another 18 meters by 2100, triggering an ecological catastrophe much sooner than anticipated. Kazakh Coastlines Recede by 50 Kilometers The most dramatic retreat of the Caspian shoreline has been recorded along the Kazakh coast, where the sea has receded by 50 kilometers. Environmental activist Vadim Ni, founder of Save The Caspian Sea, reports that from 2005 to 2023, the sea’s surface area has shrunk by more than 30,000 square kilometers. This drastic change is devastating local ecosystems, particularly the Caspian seal population, which has declined from one million to just 70,000. Each year, thousands of dead seals are found along Kazakhstan’s coastline. Shipping and Oil Production at Risk Falling water levels are also disrupting shipping and trade in the Caspian Sea. Cargo ships can no longer enter the port of Aktau, a critical hub in the Trans-Caspian transport corridor that connects Kazakhstan with Azerbaijan. The Kazakh government has developed a dredging project to keep Aktau operational, with plans approved in December 2024. The project is expected to cost 42 billion tenge ($84 million). Additionally, the shoaling of the Caspian Sea is limiting the loading capacity of transport ships to just 75% of their maximum displacement. This also hinders access to the Kashagan oil field, one of Kazakhstan’s largest energy projects. [caption id="attachment_29154" align="aligncenter" width="671"] The Caspian Sea as seen from space; image: NASA[/caption] Ecologists Warn of Aral Sea-Like Collapse Russian ecologist Alexander Veselov has warned that the Caspian Sea could face the same fate as the Aral Sea, which virtually disappeared due to overuse and mismanagement. “The Caspian Sea may split into several parts, water quality will deteriorate, leading to mass deaths of swans, sturgeons, and seals. However, state authorities are failing to respond adequately to the crisis,” Veselov said. Impact on Climate and Regional Weather The Caspian Sea plays a crucial role in regulating the climate across Central Asia and beyond. Pyotr Zavyalov, deputy director of the Shirshov Institute of Oceanology at the Russian Academy of Sciences, warns that a continued drop in sea level could alter precipitation patterns as far as the Pacific region. The current average sea level of the Caspian stands at minus 29.5 meters relative to the World Ocean, the lowest point in 400 years. However, precise long-term predictions remain difficult due to the complex interactions of evaporation, river runoff, and precipitation. Volga River and Algae Threaten Caspian’s Future The Volga River, which supplies 90% of the Caspian’s water, has seen its flow dramatically reduced due to the construction of numerous dams in recent years. Meanwhile, scientists have recorded the spread of the dinophyte algae Ceratium tripos var. balticum in the Middle Caspian Sea. This invasive species can trigger harmful algal blooms, reducing oxygen...

Kazakhstan Continues Afforestation Efforts on the Aral Sea

Kazakhstan is pressing ahead with a large-scale afforestation project aimed at restoring the ecosystem on the dried bed of the Aral Sea. The initiative brings together KATCO - a joint venture between the French state-owned company Orano and Kazakhstan’s national atomic company Kazatomprom - and other state and private entities to create artificial forests, combat land degradation, and improve environmental conditions in the Aral region. The Decline of the Aral Sea Once the world’s fourth-largest inland body of water, the Aral Sea spanned 68,000 square kilometers, straddling Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. However, starting in the 1960s, extensive water diversion from its feeder rivers - the Amu Darya and Syr Darya - for cotton irrigation caused the sea to dry up rapidly. By 2007, the Aral had shrunk to just 10% of its original size. The environmental fallout has been catastrophic. Over 100 million tons of salt, sand, and dust are carried annually by winds from the exposed seabed, damaging nearby ecosystems and posing significant health risks to residents of the surrounding areas. Progress in Afforestation According to Kazakhstan's Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources, significant strides have been made in afforestation efforts. Between December 16 and 30, 2024, sowing was completed on 12,000 hectares of the former seabed. Efforts are continuing, with plans to sow seeds across 108,000 hectares in January and February 2025. By March 2025, an additional 16,492 hectares will be planted with saxaul shrubs, a hardy plant well-suited to the region’s arid conditions. The ultimate goal is to plant saxaul shrubs on 1.1 million hectares of the dried-up Aral Seabed. Between 2021 and 2024, afforestation was completed on 475,000 hectares, including 127,000 hectares in 2024 alone. For 2025, Kazakhstan plans to plant saxaul on an ambitious 428,000 hectares. Nationwide Tree-Planting Initiative Kazakhstan’s efforts to restore the Aral Sea ecosystem are part of a broader national afforestation program. The country aims to plant 2 billion trees by 2027. From 2021 to 2024, 1.1 billion seedlings were planted over a total of 736,800 hectares, including 306 million seedlings planted in 2024 on 205,200 hectares. For 2025, the goal is to plant 336.5 million seedlings across 494,000 hectares. Beyond rural afforestation, 15 million trees are planned for urban and village areas, with more than 12 million already planted between 2021 and 2024. A Step Toward Environmental Recovery Kazakhstan’s afforestation efforts represent a critical step toward mitigating the environmental damage caused by the desiccation of the Aral Sea. By stabilizing the exposed seabed with saxaul shrubs and increasing tree cover nationwide, the country aims to reduce airborne pollutants, improve regional biodiversity, and enhance the quality of life for affected communities. The project is not only an environmental undertaking but also a testament to Kazakhstan's commitment to sustainable development and ecological restoration on a massive scale.