European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

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Entrepreneurship

EBRD Launches Online Mentoring Platform for Entrepreneurs in Tajikistan

Small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) in Tajikistan have a new avenue of support: the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has launched an online platform offering mentoring and professional consultations. The initiative is funded by the Government of Switzerland. A Global Community for Tajik Entrepreneurs The new platform, MicroMentor.tj, connects Tajik business owners with a global network of more than 420,000 entrepreneurs and 120,000 mentors across 180 countries. Available in six languages, including Russian, the service is free and accessible to entrepreneurs even in remote regions of Tajikistan. The platform aims to expand opportunities for SMEs, foster innovation, support business development, and generate employment. Promotion of the platform within the country is supported by local partner Shedevr, headed by Muboriz Subkhonov. Mentoring as a Growth Tool The EBRD has long supported SMEs not only through financial instruments but also via non-financial services such as mentoring, sector-specific consultations, training, and educational events. According to the bank, 77% of entrepreneurs who engaged actively with mentors reported increased revenues. The new platform builds on the Mentoring for Women Entrepreneurs program, which supported more than 100 participants from Dushanbe, Khatlon, Sughd, and Gorno-Badakhshan Autonomous Oblast (GBAO), with guidance from 50 mentors from Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, and Armenia. Over a nine-month period, 108 mentor-mentee pairs were formed. Nearly all participants reported tangible outcomes: 95% improved their business skills 93% expanded their businesses 90% created new jobs EBRD Updates Strategy for Tajikistan Coinciding with the platform’s launch, the EBRD approved a new country strategy for Tajikistan through 2030, prioritizing structural reforms, private sector development, and sustainable growth in energy, transport, and urban infrastructure. “The new strategy reflects our commitment to supporting Tajikistan’s economic development through a comprehensive approach combining financial resources, policy dialogue, and technical assistance,” the EBRD press service stated. The bank plans to support projects that enhance competitiveness and foster technological independence. To date, the EBRD has invested more than €1 billion in Tajikistan’s economy across 185 projects. According to the latest Regional Economic Prospects report, the EBRD forecasts Tajikistan’s GDP growth at 7% in 2025 and 5.7% in 2026. Key drivers include infrastructure investments, private sector expansion, and advancements in digital technologies and energy. The new strategy integrates investment, advisory support, and regulatory reform to create a more favorable business environment for Tajikistan’s growing economy.

Economic Growth

EBRD Projects Central Asia Economies 2025 Growth at 6.1%

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) projects that the economies of Kazakhstan, the Kyrgyz Republic, Mongolia, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan will grow by an average of 6.1% in 2025. According to the EBRD, the region’s momentum is being driven by strong industrial output, robust domestic demand, higher investment, rising wages, and continued remittance inflows. In 2026, growth is expected to remain positive but moderate to 5.2%. The report warns, however, that volatility in commodity prices, reliance on remittances, and dependence on Russian and Chinese markets pose ongoing risks to stability. Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, is forecast to expand by 5.7% in 2025. Growth has been fueled by increased oil production at the Tengiz field, which boosted industrial activity and wholesale trade. The construction sector grew by 18.4% in the first half of the year, reflecting large infrastructure projects and residential development. Even so, the EBRD cautions that over-reliance on Russian transit routes and global commodity fluctuations could slow growth to 4.5% in 2026. The Kyrgyz Republic is projected to remain one of the region’s fastest-growing economies, with GDP expected to rise by 9.0% in 2025. The economy expanded by 11.4% in the first half of the year, supported by strong public investment, remittance inflows, and rising wages. Manufacturing, trade, and construction are key drivers, while tourism is growing through new investments. Growth is forecast to ease to 6.0% in 2026 but is expected to remain resilient unless remittance flows decline. Mongolia’s economy is expected to grow by 5.8% in 2025. A 35.6% rebound in agriculture after two difficult years helped offset slower mining activity and weaker coal prices, while copper production increased. Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8.1% in the first half of 2025, driven by trade, agriculture, transport, and a doubling of mining output. Remittances rose by 64%, and sharp wage growth boosted household consumption. The EBRD forecasts GDP growth of 7.5% in 2025, moderating to 5.7% in 2026. Continued support from international institutions such as the World Bank and IMF is expected to sustain growth, although reliance on remittances remains a structural vulnerability. Turkmenistan is projected to grow by 6.3% in both 2025 and 2026, supported by trade, transport, services, and construction. Official data show capital investment up 15.6% year on year. Uzbekistan’s economy is expected to expand by 6.7% in 2025, backed by strong domestic demand, rising wages, and a 28.7% increase in remittances. Services grew by more than 8%, while industrial output was buoyed by high gold prices and stronger manufacturing in food and metals. Growth is projected to ease slightly to 6.0% in 2026 but will remain supported by diversified manufacturing and stable foreign investment.

Water

EBRD Provides $250 Million Loan to Upgrade Uzbekistan’s Irrigation Pumps

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has approved a sovereign loan of up to $250 million (€240 million) to support the modernization of 110 irrigation pumping stations across Uzbekistan. The funding, allocated to the Ministry of Water Resources, will enable the installation of modern, energy-efficient pumps in 10 regions. According to the EBRD, the project is expected to reduce electricity consumption by approximately 251,000 megawatt-hours (MWh) annually and cut CO₂-equivalent emissions by more than 117,000 tons per year. The financing will also cover refurbishment of related infrastructure and the installation of rooftop solar panels at select stations. This initiative is a core part of Uzbekistan’s national irrigation modernization program, which aims to reduce electricity consumption across the irrigation system by 25%. The program also includes the deployment of water-saving technologies that will reach nearly half of the country’s irrigated farmland. Currently, Uzbekistan operates over 1,600 irrigation pumping stations, an energy-intensive network crucial for the country’s agricultural sector. Recognizing the need for improved efficiency, the water management sector has declared 2025 the "Year of Enhancing Pumping Station Efficiency." In recent years, the country has invested $1 billion in upgrading major stations such as Karshi, Amu-Bukhara, and Amu-Zang. However, the degradation of smaller and mid-sized stations has continued to drive up irrigation water costs. Efforts to conserve water are also underway. By concreting 550 kilometers of canals and ditches, water supply to 200,000 hectares of farmland has been stabilized, saving an estimated 450 million cubic meters of water annually. In 2025, Uzbekistan plans to concrete an additional 18,000 kilometers of main canals nationwide.

EBRD

EBRD Downgrades Kazakhstan’s 2025 GDP Forecast

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has revised its 2025 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan downward, from 5.2% to 4.9%. The adjustment was published in the bank’s May regional economic outlook. According to the EBRD, the downward revision is largely due to Kazakhstan’s GDP growth in the first quarter being driven primarily by higher oil output at the Tengiz field. While this expansion has supported short-term growth, the bank questions the sustainability of oil production as a long-term driver, particularly under current OPEC+ production limits. Oil Output and Constraints Tengizchevroil (TCO), the operator of the country’s largest oil field, increased daily production at Tengiz to a record 870,000 barrels in January 2025, up 45% from the 2024 average. Output climbed further to 950,000 barrels in March, before dipping slightly to an average of 884,000 barrels per day in early April. Industry projections suggest production may eventually reach one million barrels per day. However, the EBRD cautions that such gains may be constrained by Kazakhstan’s obligations under the OPEC+ agreement. In addition to concerns about oil production, the bank notes the risk of declining demand for Kazakh oil and metals, key exports, especially from China, one of Kazakhstan’s main trading partners. Inflation and Domestic Demand Rising inflation presents another significant challenge. Consumer prices rose 8.9% in January, 9.4% in February, and hit 10% in March, the highest level since November 2023. In April, inflation climbed further to 10.7%, raising concerns about the erosion of domestic purchasing power. Broader Economic Indicators Despite the EBRD’s revised forecast, the Ministry of National Economy reported on May 12 that Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 6% in the first four months of 2025. For the January-March period, growth was recorded at 5.8%, supported by a range of sectors: transport (22.4%), trade (7%), agriculture (3.9%), and communications (2.6%). Growth in the transport sector was driven by an increase in freight volumes via rail and pipeline, accounting for 20.5% and 19.6% of sectoral output, respectively. Wholesale trade expanded by 7.4%, and retail trade by 6.1%. Outlook As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, several analysts view ongoing volatility in global markets as indicative of a looming “perfect storm” for Kazakhstan’s economy. This sentiment is echoed in the EBRD’s cautious outlook, highlighting a convergence of external and internal pressures on the country's economic stability.