European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD)

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Economic Growth

EBRD Names Tajikistan One of Central Asia’s Fastest-Growing Economies

Tajikistan continues to record one of the strongest economic growth rates in Central Asia, according to the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) in its June 2026 Regional Economic Prospects report. The EBRD estimates that Tajikistan’s economy grew by 8% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, supported by growth in trade, transport and communications, along with strong manufacturing growth and higher electricity generation. Fixed capital investment rose by 34.2% in the first quarter compared with the same period last year, one of the strongest performances in the region. For comparison, fixed capital investment in neighboring Kyrgyzstan rose by 25.5% during the same period, while Kazakhstan recorded growth of 6.4%. The bank attributed Tajikistan’s strong investment activity partly to public spending commitments, including the Rogun hydropower project, one of the country’s flagship infrastructure developments. Once completed, Rogun is expected to become a key part of Tajikistan’s power system and a major source of electricity exports to neighboring countries. The EBRD also noted strong growth in manufacturing, which increased by 29.6% year-on-year in January-March 2026. Electricity generation rose by 7.5%, while mining output contracted by 9.8%. Officials at Tajikistan’s State Committee on Investment and State Property Management said the figures reflect sustained interest in the country’s economy and create additional opportunities to attract domestic and foreign investors into priority sectors. Tajikistan has increasingly positioned itself as a regional energy hub, particularly through hydropower. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, the country has the largest hydropower potential in Central Asia. Tajikistan’s annual hydropower potential is estimated at 527 billion kilowatt-hours, while the country accounts for a large share of Central Asia’s water resources. Despite that, much of its hydropower capacity remains untapped. International industry estimates suggest that only around 4% of Tajikistan’s hydropower potential has been developed, leaving significant room for future investment and expansion.

Transport Infrastructure

Tajikistan EBRD Cooperation Targets Telecoms and Border Logistics

Tajikistan is set to attract approximately $43 million in financing to modernize its telecommunications infrastructure, while the government and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) are also advancing plans for a new logistics hub on the border with Uzbekistan. The initiatives were discussed during the EBRD Annual Meeting and Business Forum and reflect the bank’s broader support for improving digital and transport connectivity in Tajikistan. A memorandum of understanding was signed between Tajikistan’s Ministry of Finance, the Communications Service under the government, and the EBRD to support the modernization and expansion of the country’s telecommunications network. The document was signed by First Deputy Finance Minister Yusuf Majidi, First Deputy Head of the Communications Service Parviz Noriyon, and Holger Münt, EBRD director for telecommunications, media and technology. The project aims to expand digital infrastructure, improve access to modern communications services, enhance service quality and support the country’s ongoing digital transformation. The planned investment of approximately $43 million is expected to strengthen regional connectivity while creating new opportunities for businesses and consumers. Separately, Transport Minister Azim Ibrohim met with EBRD Country Director for Tajikistan Holger Wiefel and other bank representatives to discuss transport infrastructure projects, including plans for a logistics center at the Dusti border crossing in Tursunzade, on the Tajik-Uzbek border. The talks focused on a preliminary feasibility study for the proposed logistics hub, covering legal, technical and economic aspects of the project. Officials said the preparatory work should allow the initiative to move to the next stage of implementation. The parties also reviewed the progress of ongoing transport-sector investment projects and discussed opportunities for further cooperation. The discussions come as Tajikistan seeks to strengthen both its physical and financial links with external partners. Last week, TCA reported that officials from the National Bank of Tajikistan and the Agricultural Bank of China had discussed expanding interbank cooperation, easing trade payments, supporting Chinese-backed investment projects and using digital tools in Tajikistan’s financial sector. The two sides also discussed the possibility of opening branches of Chinese banks in Tajikistan. That push reflects the growing role of external finance in Tajikistan’s infrastructure plans. TCA has previously reported that more than 70% of funding for the country’s state investment projects comes from three institutions: the World Bank, the Asian Development Bank and the EBRD, with China also remaining an important source of trade and investment financing. Tajikistan EBRD cooperation goes back more than three decades. Since beginning operations in the country in 1993, the bank has invested more than €1 billion across 192 projects. Under its 2025-2030 country strategy, the EBRD is focusing on private-sector competitiveness, sustainable energy, transport, municipal infrastructure, financial-sector development and support for small and medium-sized enterprises, with connectivity projects expected to play an increasingly important role in Tajikistan’s economic development and regional integration.

EBRD

Uzbekistan-Born Mansurova Named EBRD Regional Head for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) has named Nodira Mansurova as its next regional head for Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, and Turkmenistan, putting her in charge of operations in three Central Asian markets where the bank has invested more than €2.5 billion combined. Mansurova will be based in Bishkek and is expected to take up the post on September 1, 2026. She will replace Ayten Rustamova, who has led the regional office since 2021. The appointment gives Mansurova oversight of one of the EBRD’s more varied regional portfolios in Central Asia. As of March 31, 2026, the bank’s cumulative investment stood at €1.177 billion in Kyrgyzstan, €1.059 billion in Tajikistan, and €327 million in Turkmenistan. The three countries present different operating environments for the bank. In Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, EBRD activity has included infrastructure, private-sector development, financial services, and energy-related projects. In Turkmenistan, the bank’s work has been more limited and has focused mainly on private businesses and financial-sector activity. Mansurova has worked for the EBRD since 2001. Born in Uzbekistan and now a British citizen, she has held roles in London and in several countries where the bank operates. Her previous posts included regional head of SME Finance and Development for Central Asia, based in Almaty, and head of the EBRD’s operations in Tunisia. Her new role comes as international financial institutions continue to focus on infrastructure, energy transition, private-sector growth, and regional connectivity in Central Asia.

GDP Forecast

S&P Global Ratings Expects Kazakhstan’s GDP Growth to Slow in 2026

The international rating agency S&P Global Ratings has affirmed Kazakhstan’s long-term sovereign credit rating at BBB- and its short-term rating at A-3, while maintaining a positive outlook on the long-term rating. At the same time, S&P analysts expect economic growth to decelerate in 2026 and warn of persistently high inflation. According to commentary on S&P’s projections by analysts at the Halyk Finance research center, Kazakhstan’s GDP growth is forecast to slow to 4.1% in 2026. The projected slowdown is attributed to a 4% decline in oil production, weaker fiscal stimulus, and reduced consumer activity amid higher taxes and tighter credit conditions. In the medium term, for 2028-2029, S&P expects GDP growth to remain at around 4% or slightly higher. However, risks persist, particularly those related to geopolitical tensions and the continued sensitivity of Kazakhstan’s budget revenues and exports to fluctuations in global oil prices. For comparison, Kazakhstan’s GDP grew by 6.5% in 2025. In 2026, the government expects growth of 6.2%, a notably more optimistic projection than S&P’s estimate. Other international institutions have offered varying forecasts. The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) recently upgraded its 2026 GDP growth forecast for Kazakhstan to 4.7%, up from 4.5%. In contrast, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) in January lowered its 2026 growth forecast by 0.4 percentage points to 4.4%. Returning to S&P’s projections, the agency expects inflation to reach 11% by the end of 2026 and forecasts an exchange rate of 540 tenge per $1. Halyk Finance analysts stated that they broadly agree with S&P’s GDP and inflation forecasts. However, they consider the risks of further weakening of the national currency to be greater than the agency anticipates. According to their estimates, the exchange rate in 2026 could depreciate to 580-590 tenge per $1. S&P also expects the Kazakh government to continue fiscal consolidation in the medium term by expanding the tax base and tightening control over public spending, while preserving substantial liquid reserves. Over the next three years, the government does not plan to withdraw additional funds from the National Fund through targeted transfers or bond placements. The guaranteed annual transfer from the National Fund is set at $5.5 billion, half the $11.1 billion withdrawn in 2025. “We share S&P Global Ratings’ positive assessment, provided that the government strictly adheres to its fiscal consolidation commitments and reduces transfers from the National Fund,” Halyk Finance concluded. The Times of Central Asia previously reported that the IMF believes Kazakhstan’s current GDP growth rate exceeds the country’s long-term economic potential, thereby increasing inflationary pressures and signaling potential overheating of the economy.

Investments

EBRD Invested Over $100 Million in Tajikistan’s Economy in 2025

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) invested nearly $103 million in Tajikistan’s economy in 2025, signing 19 agreements over the course of the year. The funding targeted key sectors including energy, transport, municipal infrastructure, and private sector development. According to the bank, 83% of its 2025 loan portfolio in Tajikistan supported sustainable infrastructure projects. Another 14% of resources were channelled through local banks to finance small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), women’s and youth entrepreneurship initiatives, and programs focused on climate adaptation and resource efficiency. The public sector received the majority of financing, accounting for 83% of the EBRD’s annual activity in the country. Of the total lending volume, approximately 58% was directed toward green economy development. One of the year’s largest initiatives was a financing package of up to €43 million for the state-owned power distribution company, Shabakahoi Taqsimoti Barq. The package includes an EBRD sovereign loan of up to €28 million and a €15 million grant from the European Union. These funds are being used to modernize electricity metering and billing systems across nine cities in the Khatlon and Sughd regions. Significant investment also went into road infrastructure. An EBRD sovereign loan of up to €38 million, combined with an $86.7 million grant from the Asian Development Bank, will fund the reconstruction of the Danghara-Guliston highway. The route connects the north and south of the Khatlon region, which produces over half of Tajikistan’s agricultural output and is home to more than one-third of the population. A major energy milestone was achieved in 2025 with the completion of the Kayrokkum hydropower plant’s modernization. The plant’s installed capacity increased from 126 MW to 174 MW after all six units were brought online. Serving around 500,000 people in the Sughd region, the project, initiated in 2019, was financed with $196 million arranged by the EBRD. The bank also issued three sovereign loans totaling over €12 million for water supply system upgrades in Kulyab and Yavan, and for the modernization of Dushanbe’s centralized heating system. Alongside infrastructure projects, the EBRD expanded its support for the private sector. In 2025, more than 500 small enterprises across Tajikistan received various forms of assistance from the bank.

Heating

EBRD to Allocate $6 Million for Modernization of Dushanbe’s Heat Supply System

The European Bank for Reconstruction and Development (EBRD) will provide $6 million to Tajikistan for the implementation of the “Heat Supply in Dushanbe” project. The decision was approved by parliament on December 12. According to MP Nigina Sharifzoda, the financing will comprise a $3 million grant and a $3 million loan. The funds will be used to reconstruct and expand the capital’s central heating infrastructure. The project includes the modernization of Dushanbe’s heating networks, with the aim of ensuring reliable heat supply during the winter months. By 2028, over 500,000 residents are expected to benefit from stable heating services. This initiative is part of an ongoing program. The initial credit line has been in place since 2021, and the current stage was formalized as an additional credit agreement. The document was signed on October 6 between the Ministry of Finance, the Dushanbe mayor’s office, the state-owned Dushanbe Heat Network company, and the EBRD. First Deputy Minister of Finance Yusuf Majidi noted that the project is intended not only to modernize infrastructure but also to address long-standing systemic issues in the sector. Currently, more than 43% of Dushanbe’s residential buildings, schools, kindergartens, hospitals, and businesses are connected to centralized hot water supply. By the 2025-2026 heating season, an estimated 3,300 facilities are expected to be integrated into the system. Despite progress, challenges remain. Residents in several districts continue to report inadequate heating. A recent inspection by the Energy Supervision Agency revealed that in some heating stations, the temperature of the heat carrier was just 55°C, well below the standard 75°C. Separately, the EBRD, in partnership with the European Union, has announced another major initiative: the modernization of Tajikistan’s electricity distribution infrastructure, with €43 million allocated for the project.