Flood Risk - The Times Of Central Asia

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humanitarian aid

Twenty-Five Years Ago, Karimov and Powell Opened a Humanitarian Lifeline. Today, Global Support Wanes

During the first week of June 2026, World Food Programme Afghanistan Country Director John Aylieff, Supply Chain Officer Shukhratmirzo Khodzhaev, and TCA’s Javier M Piedra visited the Termez–Hairatan border crossing and the Termez Free Economic Zone (TFEZ), a logistics hub between Uzbekistan and Afghanistan on the Amu Darya River. The trip was organized by the Institute for Strategic and Regional Studies (ISRS) in connection with Termez Dialogue 2026, a flagship Uzbekistan initiative designed to advance economic integration, trade, and cultural exchange across Central and South Asia. For 25 years, Uzbekistan has maintained the Termez crossing as a key humanitarian gateway, ensuring Afghanistan’s continued access to regional and global supply chains. [caption id="attachment_51321" align="aligncenter" width="850"] Geographical position of the Amu Darya; source: snipview.com/amudarya[/caption] A quarter-century on, the gateway that has saved millions of Afghans from famine remains open, but the funding that makes it so meaningful is on life support. While Central Asia has stepped up, its increased contributions only partially offset the huge shortfall left by wealthier countries. Termez, Uzbekistan Twenty-five years ago, with winter approaching, borders closed, logistics shattered, and five million Afghans in urgent need of food, WFP's Petar Bojilov and Tim Lavelle—on loan to USAID OFDA's DART from USUN Rome—took on an impossible mission: to open a lifeline and get emergency food aid across the Amu Darya River from Uzbekistan into Afghanistan. What began with one barge and a handful of hopelessly underequipped and understaffed personnel in 2001 has become one of the world's most consequential logistics hubs, through which WFP has delivered over 220,000 metric tons of food into Afghanistan in recent years. In 2026, the Bridge of Friendship Marks its 25th Anniversary Once a barely functional border crossing, Termez is now a Free Economic Zone (AIRITOM) with multimodal connectivity and extensive storage, providing WFP with what John Aylieff calls unmatched operational flexibility. “What makes the Termez hub today so strategically important is its reliability and versatility,” says Aylieff. “It offers dependable transshipment through multiple Afghan corridors—a vital lifeline where speed matters – as well as loading and storage. Given current geopolitical tensions, from the closure of the Pakistan–Afghanistan border to the spillover of the Middle East crisis, its role has become even more essential for humanitarian operations.” [caption id="attachment_51320" align="aligncenter" width="761"] John Aylieff and Javier Piedra, Termez (June 7th, 2026). Image: TCA[/caption] Since February 2026, violence along Afghanistan's 2,400-kilometre border with Pakistan has escalated sharply, triggering the displacement of approximately 20,000 families. With heightened instability along the Afghan-Pakistan border and in Iran, forced returns of Afghan refugees have increased sharply; the Termez transit corridor has become all the more critical as a channel for humanitarian food aid. Termez's value extends well beyond WFP's own operations. "The hub not only serves WFP in Afghanistan but also supports numerous humanitarian agencies in the country, including UNHCR, UNFPA, and UNICEF," says Aylieff. "It is the backbone of the northern corridor supply chain into Afghanistan, and more and more agencies are relying on WFP's logistics capabilities to bring their...

Flood Risk

Tajikistan Warns of Mudslides as Central Asia Expands Flood Cooperation

Authorities in Tajikistan say heavy rain could trigger mudslides in parts of the country in the coming days and have warned people to be extremely careful when traveling on roads near mountains and riverbanks. The warning was issued on Wednesday, days after government officials, scientists, and other delegates from across Central Asia met in Bishkek to discuss ways to address cross-border mudflows and floods. The three-day meeting, which ended on Friday, was organized by Kyrgyzstan’s Ministry of Emergency Situations and the Regional Environmental Center for Central Asia, a group that gets support from the World Bank and other international partners. Mudslides and flooding often hit parts of Central Asia in the spring and early summer, when rainfall, rising temperatures, snow and glacier melt, and increasing water levels threaten communities that scientists say are more vulnerable because of climate change. In the spring of 2024, flooding in Kazakhstan displaced thousands of people and damaged many homes and other buildings in what the government called the worst natural disaster in the country in 80 years. Central Asian governments are increasing cooperation on mitigation measures, including early warning systems, data sharing, and other projects to better protect their populations. As temperatures rise faster in Central Asia than the global average, Tajikistan is especially vulnerable because it is a mountainous country where glacier melt is a growing concern. Heavy rains and mudslides are possible through Friday, July 3, in mountainous and hilly areas across the country, as well as in Sughd Region in northwest Tajikistan, which borders Uzbekistan, and in Khatlon Region in the southwest, which borders Uzbekistan and Afghanistan, Tajikistan’s Ministry of Transport said. Citing meteorological experts, the ministry also warned of dust storms in Khatlon and the capital, Dushanbe, because of strong winds blowing from the south. “As a result of rising temperatures, glacier melt, and increasing water levels in the Panj, Vakhsh, Varzob, and Zeravshan rivers, there is a risk of mudflows in these areas,” the ministry said. It added that it had “instructed all road maintenance departments and institutions to monitor the condition of highways around the clock.” The possibility of flooding from glacier melt and rising river levels is not only a problem in mountainous areas in upstream countries such as Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, but also in downstream countries, including Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan, that rely on cross-border water supplies but are also vulnerable to natural disasters. Turkmenportal, an online news site, said the recent meeting in Kyrgyzstan on water cooperation in Central Asia was important to Turkmenistan because it “is located in the lower reaches of Central Asia's largest rivers and is directly dependent on the quality of transboundary cooperation in water management and flood risk reduction.”

Asian Development Bank

ADB Approves $56.4 Million Disaster-Response Package for Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan

The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has approved a $56.4 million program aimed at strengthening disaster-response capacity in Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan, the bank announced in an official statement. According to the ADB, both countries face high exposure to earthquakes, floods, and other climate-related hazards. Their ability to respond effectively remains limited by constrained fiscal resources and a lack of risk-transfer mechanisms. The newly approved program is designed to enhance financial preparedness through two pre-arranged ADB financing instruments, each tailored to different levels of disaster risk. Innovative Tools for Disaster-Risk Financing The program incorporates two key components: Contingent Disaster Financing (CDF) and Disaster Resilience Bonds (DRB). CDF provides budgetary support during medium-scale natural disasters or public health emergencies. DRBs, issued on international capital markets, offer rapid liquidity for major, high-severity disasters. “This program will help reduce the fiscal burden on both countries following natural disasters, including geophysical events, extreme weather, and health emergencies,” said Leah Gutierrez, ADB Director General for Central and West Asia. She emphasized that the combination of policy reforms, institutional strengthening, and innovative financing marks a shift from reactive response to proactive disaster-risk management. Focus on Institutional Reforms and Regional Cooperation The initiative also emphasizes strategic policy reforms, capacity building, and governance improvements to ensure a coordinated and transparent disaster-risk management system. It was developed under ADB’s technical assistance program to establish disaster-risk transfer mechanisms in the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) region, a partnership supporting sustainable development and regional integration. The program will be financed through a $53.1 million grant from the Asian Development Fund (ADF), with an additional $3.3 million from the Asia-Pacific Climate Fund. ADF grants are targeted at the poorest and most vulnerable countries in the Asia-Pacific. From 2021 to 2024, the fund supported the lifting of 384,000 people out of poverty and the creation of approximately 500,000 jobs.

Kazakh Floods

Eight Regions in Kazakhstan Face High Flood Risk

Kazakhstan's National Headquarters for Coordination of Flood Control Measures has identified the most flood-prone regions of Kazakhstan. As of March 13, 67% of the country remains covered in snow. Minister of Ecology and Natural Resources Yerlan Nyssanbayev noted that snowmelt has already begun in the Kyzylorda, Turkestan, Zhambyl, West Kazakhstan, Atyrau, and Mangystau regions. Meanwhile, maximum soil freezing has been recorded in the northwest, northeast, and central parts of the country. In the Kostanay region, frost penetration exceeds 150cm, while in the Akmola region, it reaches 139cm. The Pavlodar and Karaganda regions have experienced frost depths of up to 159cm and 132cm, respectively. Weather forecasts indicate that March and April will be warmer than usual, with heavy precipitation expected in most of the country, increasing the risk of flooding. For the first time in 2025, Kazakhstan has issued detailed flood risk assessments for each region, including maximum water flow levels, runoff volumes at hydrological posts, and at-risk settlements. Based on this analysis, eight regions have been classified as high-risk flood zones: East Kazakhstan, Karaganda, Akmola, North Kazakhstan, Kostanay, Aktobe, Abay, and Ulytau. An additional five regions, Almaty, Zhambyl, West Kazakhstan, Atyrau, and Zhetisu, are considered medium-risk zones. “Regions must maintain a high level of preparedness. Akimats [local councils] should take comprehensive measures to prevent flooding in settlements, prioritizing protection from steppe water. Culverts, bridges, and drainage systems should be cleared of ice and debris, and riverbanks must be reinforced. Bottlenecks in rivers should be widened. Additionally, emergency response teams must be stationed in flood-prone areas, with designated evacuation sites fully equipped with life-support resources,” said Prime Minister Olzhas Bektenov. The Ministry of Emergency Situations has been tasked with providing round-the-clock monitoring of the flood situation. In the event of worsening conditions, additional emergency response forces will be deployed. According to Minister of Emergency Situations Chingis Arinov, more than 37,000 civil protection personnel, 13,000 units of equipment, 4,000 water pumps, and 640 boats have been mobilized. Ministry aircraft remain on standby, and a reserve force of 1,000 employees with 120 specialized vehicles, 123 water pumps, and 39 boats is also prepared for deployment. As The Times of Central Asia previously reported, Kazakhstan began releasing water from reservoirs in January to maximize capacity ahead of spring floods. However, last year, the greatest damage was caused not by overflowing rivers but by the rapid melting of the snowpack.