Uzbekistan Leads in Central Asia’s Military Strength Rankings

U.S. News recently published its list of the world’s strongest militaries, with Russia, the U.S., and Israel in the top three. The Times of Central Asia reviewed this rating in the Central Asian countries section. Uzbekistan ranks 19th globally in military strength, the highest in the region. However, U.S. News ranks the country 74th out of 78 in its “Best Countries” category, citing an economy still largely driven by cotton. Uzbekistan remains a major global player in cotton, as the fifth-largest exporter and seventh-largest producer worldwide. Kazakhstan, Central Asia’s largest economy, ranks 22nd for military strength and is noted for its vast reserves of fossil fuels, uranium, and other minerals. Much of Kazakhstan’s economic growth has been oil-driven, and the country ranks 83rd on the “Best Countries” list. U.S. News ranked countries based on cultural influence, entrepreneurship, heritage, openness to business, quality of life, and social purpose. In a separate ranking, the Global Firepower Military Index for 2024 lists Kazakhstan as Central Asia’s top military power, placing it at 58th worldwide. Uzbekistan has fallen by three places since last year’s rankings — the only country in the region not to show an improvement — and is now in the 65th position. In the bottom half of the table, Turkmenistan lies in 83rd place, while Kyrgyzstan is 100th. Global Firepower puts Tajikistan in 107th place, making it the region’s weakest army.

Kazakhstan: A Rising Global Player in Trade and Diplomacy

Over the past decade, Kazakhstan has become an increasingly important land-bridge between East and West, both in terms of trade and diplomacy. A vast nation the size of Western Europe with powerful neighbors in the form of China and Russia, yet on the doorstep of Europe with access to the Caspian Sea, Kazakhstan’s location has elevated it to the cusp of becoming a global power. Given its geography, it is reasonable to assert that many decisions in Kazakhstan are, out of necessity, the result of a geopolitical tightrope act necessitating a balanced and far-reaching policy outlook. This strategic position has been described by Ariel Cohen, a Nonresident Senior Fellow at the Eurasia Center of the Atlantic Council, as a “visionary multi-vector policy pioneered” by President Tokayev. Indeed, “mutually beneficially cooperation” and “mutually beneficial strategic partnership” have become watchwords of Tokayev’s presidency. Due to projects such as the Belt and Road Initiative and the Middle Corridor, Kazakhstan’s location has made it an indispensable ally to China. Playing a pivotal role in the expansion of transcontinental trade has led the whole of Central Asia to, in the words of Tokayev, “become a global stakeholder.” Trade turnover between Kazakhstan and China continues to expand, reaching $31.5 billion in 2023 (a 30% increase on 2022), and new transit routes are continuously under construction, with the Bakhty-Ayagoz railway line set to lead the opening of a third border crossing with China and increase the throughput capacity between the two nations from 28 million to around 48 million tons. Both cultural and political ties continue to grow, with a 30-day visa-free travel regime coming into force in November 2023. As for the total amount of Chinese investment in Kazakhstan over the past eighteen years, estimates vary from $23.2 to over $36 billion. Even these huge sums, however, are dwarfed in comparison to the Netherlands, which, in the last five years alone, has invested a colossal $33.8 billion in Kazakhstan. Meanwhile, according to Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics data for January to December 2022, Italy was Kazakhstan’s largest exporter, accounting for 16.4% of exports worth $13.9 billion during this period. The strength of this partnership was evinced by President Tokayev paying an official visit to Italy in January 2024, during which he held talks with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni and spoke about the two nations’ “dynamically” developing relationship and its “enormous potential”. As a block, the EU is Kazakhstan’s biggest overall trading partner, the destination for 39% of total exports and accounting for 29.4% of its total trade in 2021. Through initiatives such as the C5+1 and the B5+1, meanwhile, the United States has increasingly sought to engage with Central Asia, and with Kazakhstan in particular. With investment totaling $19.4 billion, the U.S. ranks second in terms of foreign investment over the past five years. A driving force behind this engagement has been the huge untapped reserves of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) located in Kazakhstan. According to the Brookings Institute, whilst China is the dominant player in...