Oil Production - The Times Of Central Asia

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GDP Growth

Kazakhstan Economic Growth Reaches 4.5% in January–October 2026

Kazakhstan’s economy grew 4.5% in January–October 2026, down from 6.4% in the same period last year. Manufacturing and construction were among the main drivers of growth despite a sharp decline in oil production, while household incomes barely increased after inflation in the first half of the year. The latest preliminary gross domestic product (GDP) figures were released by the Ministry of National Economy, citing the Bureau of National Statistics. Growth was slightly higher than the 4.2% recorded in January–September. The non-resource sector expanded by an estimated 5.6% in the first 10 months, while oil production fell 8.3% year over year in January–September. Manufacturing growth accelerated from 8.6% in the first nine months to 9.3% in January–October. Pharmaceutical production rose 50.9% year over year, machinery output increased 22.2%, and food production grew 13%. Overall industrial output was up 3.5%. Construction expanded 13.1%, making it one of the fastest-growing sectors. Transportation and warehousing increased 7.5%, trade grew 6.2%, and agriculture rose 5.2%. Communications services expanded 4.9%. Construction, manufacturing, transportation, and trade together accounted for more than three-quarters of GDP growth in the first nine months, according to government figures. Fixed investment rose 7% over the same period, including an 18.2% increase in private investment. Household purchasing power showed little improvement, with real income per person rising just 0.1% in the first quarter and 0.7% in the second compared with the corresponding periods of 2025. Annual inflation eased to 9.2% in October from 9.3% in September, according to the statistics bureau. In the National Bank of Kazakhstan’s October household survey, respondents’ median estimate of inflation over the previous 12 months was 9%, while their median expectation for the next 12 months was 9.8%.

GDP Forecasts

Kazakhstan GDP Forecast Rises to Nearly $398 Billion

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) projects Kazakhstan’s nominal gross domestic product (GDP) at nearly $398 billion in 2026. The figure places the country 47th in a global ranking published by Visual Capitalist, based on the IMF’s October forecasts. The fund expects Kazakhstan’s economy to grow by 4.4% this year after adjusting for inflation, compared with global growth of 3.1%. An earlier ranking, published in January, placed Kazakhstan 50th, with projected GDP of about $320 billion for 2026. The tenge, Kazakhstan’s currency, gained approximately 18% against the dollar over the year to October 28. A stronger tenge increases the dollar value of Kazakhstan’s economy, even without an equivalent increase in actual production. Kazakhstan remains Central Asia’s largest economy by nominal GDP. Uzbekistan, the region’s second-largest economy, is projected to have a GDP of $178.17 billion in 2026. Turkmenistan’s projected GDP is about $83 billion, Kyrgyzstan’s is $26.69 billion, and Tajikistan’s is $21.11 billion. Kazakhstan’s nominal GDP per person is projected to exceed $19,000 in 2026. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of National Economy estimates that the economy grew by 4.2% in January–September 2026, with the non-resource sector expanding by 5.4%. Construction output increased by 11.5%, while manufacturing, transportation, and trade also grew. Oil production, meanwhile, fell by 8.3%. According to the ministry’s October 13 report, manufacturing accounted for 14.1% of GDP in the first half of the year. Machinery production grew by 22.8% in January–September, while chemicals and pharmaceuticals also recorded strong growth. The IMF expects Kazakhstan’s real economic growth to accelerate to 4.9% in 2027.

Oil Production

Karachaganak Maintenance to Cut Kazakhstan’s Oil Output by Up to 450,000 Tons

Karachaganak, one of Kazakhstan’s three largest oil and gas fields, entered planned maintenance on September 7, a shutdown expected to reduce the country’s oil and gas condensate output by 400,000–450,000 metric tons before work ends on October 1. The interruption comes in a year when the government has already lowered its national production forecast following repeated disruptions to the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), the main export route for Kazakhstan’s oil. In August, Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov said Kazakhstan had lowered its 2026 oil production target from 98 million to 96 million metric tons. He put production losses from attacks on CPC infrastructure in January, June, and July at about 3.5 million metric tons. CPC loadings rebounded by 22% in August after July’s disruptions, reaching around 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd). CPC exports are expected to fall to about 1.5 million bpd in September, partly because of the Karachaganak maintenance. More than 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports move through CPC. The July shutdown at the Black Sea terminal showed how quickly an export disruption can force production cuts at fields far inland. On July 22, Kazakhstan’s oil and gas condensate output fell by about 21%, while output at Tengiz dropped 56%, from roughly 925,000 to 406,000 bpd. Karachaganak also depends on Russian processing infrastructure. Raw gas from the field is sent to Russia’s Orenburg gas processing plant. In June, Karachaganak reduced production after an incident at the plant sharply curtailed its intake of gas from the field. Karachaganak Petroleum Operating B.V. (KPO), the field’s operator, is expanding its gas reinjection capacity. The process returns some of the produced gas to the reservoir, helping to maintain pressure and sustain oil and gas condensate output. A fifth gas reinjection compressor began operating in 2024. In June 2026, KPO announced that the KEP-1B project, which includes a sixth compressor, had begun reinjecting gas ahead of schedule. The Energy Ministry has said the two compressors would help maintain Karachaganak’s liquid hydrocarbon production at around 11–12 million metric tons a year. Following the expansion of Tengiz, Kazakhstan had expected national oil production to approach 100 million metric tons a year. Its production capacity has increased, but the events of 2026 have exposed the limits of the infrastructure used to move that oil to market. In May, Akkenzhenov said there was no full-scale alternative to CPC. Some oil can be rerouted across the Caspian into the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline or east to China, but these routes cannot absorb CPC-scale volumes. CPC can carry up to 72.5 million metric tons a year from Kazakhstan. Whether or not the maintenance reduction was already incorporated into the revised forecast, Kazakhstan has little room for further disruption to the export and processing infrastructure on which its production depends.

OPEC

Kazakhstan OPEC+ Oil Production Target Rises After Output Agreement

Kazakhstan's OPEC+ crude oil production target will rise by 10,000 barrels per day in September to 1.628 million barrels per day after seven producers agreed to increase their combined target by 188,000 barrels per day. The decision completes the gradual restoration of 1.65 million barrels per day of production withheld under voluntary cuts announced in April 2023. Following a virtual meeting on August 2, Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman agreed to the latest adjustment. The United Arab Emirates was part of the original group implementing the voluntary cuts but left OPEC and OPEC+ on May 1, reducing the group making the monthly decisions from eight countries to seven. OPEC's rounded country allocations raise the targets of Saudi Arabia and Russia by 62,000 barrels per day each, Iraq by 26,000, Kuwait by 16,000, Kazakhstan by 10,000, Algeria by 6,000, and Oman by 5,000 barrels per day. OPEC+ said the adjustment would allow participating countries to accelerate compensation for previous overproduction. It does not cancel Kazakhstan's obligation to offset all excess volumes produced since January 2024 by producing below its applicable targets in future months. Kazakhstan has faced sustained pressure within OPEC+ after repeatedly producing above its agreed limits. The expansion of the Tengiz oilfield has pushed national output to record levels, while Astana has repeatedly said it intends to meet its compensation commitments. Reuters reported that successive OPEC+ increases this year have remained largely on paper because export disruptions have constrained supply from the Gulf, Russia, and Kazakhstan. Sources had indicated that the group could pause further increases in the fourth quarter, although the August 2 statement made no commitment on production policy for the final three months of 2026. Recent disruptions at the Caspian Pipeline Consortium provide an immediate limit on what Kazakhstan's higher target may mean. The Times of Central Asia reported on August 3 that tankers were loading and Kazakhstan had restored crude intake after attacks near CPC's Black Sea terminal, but the available statements did not establish a full return to planned export volumes. CPC handles more than 80% of Kazakhstan's crude exports, so renewed loading restrictions could again force producers to cut output regardless of the higher quota. OPEC+ is also reviewing members' production capacity before setting the baselines that will apply in 2027. The seven producers will meet again on September 6 to assess market conditions and decide whether to make further changes.

Oil Production

Kazakhstan May Miss Record Oil Output Target in 2026 Amid Infrastructure Disruptions

Kazakhstan’s oil production could decline by 2-4 million tons by the end of 2026 following disruptions linked to attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC) and fires at the country’s largest oil field, Tengiz. This was stated by Energy Minister Yerlan Akkenzhenov in response to journalists’ questions. In 2025, Kazakhstan produced more than 99.5 million tons of oil, exceeding the initial forecast of 96.2 million tons. Output for 2026 had originally been projected at 100.5 million tons, a potential record for the country. However, the minister indicated that actual production is now likely to fall short of this target. “According to the economic development plan, oil production in 2026 was expected to reach 100.5 million tons. However, due to events at the end of last year and the beginning of this year, attacks on CPC infrastructure and fires at Tengiz, production is likely to be in the range of 96-98 million tons,” Akkenzhenov said. Earlier reports suggested that Kazakhstan had been forced to urgently revise its oil export routes following drone attacks on CPC facilities. In January two fires broke out at electric generators at the Tengiz field. Although the incidents were quickly contained, they caused power outages and temporarily reduced production by nearly 20%. According to the minister, production at Tengiz had been fully restored by early March. “Tengiz has returned to a production level of 120,000 tons per day. A commission is currently finalising its investigation into the causes of the fire, and the results will be announced shortly,” Akkenzhenov said. Akkenzhenov also noted that global oil markets remain volatile amid ongoing tensions in the Middle East. He said that oil prices had recently peaked at $119 per barrel before declining to around $87. “Prices fluctuate daily. At the same time, attacks on oil infrastructure in Persian Gulf countries continue, reducing physical supply and keeping prices relatively high,” he said. Akkenzhenov added that rising global oil prices have not yet significantly affected domestic gasoline prices in Kazakhstan. According to the minister, future price dynamics will largely depend on developments in the Middle East. Military escalation in the region, including hostilities involving Iran that began in late February 2026, has already affected global energy markets and may continue to influence oil prices and supply stability.

Oil Production

Oil Eclipse: Power Cuts Expose Fragility of Western Kazakhstan’s CPC-Linked Energy System

Production at the Tengiz oil field in Kazakhstan is set to resume, according to the Ministry of Energy, which has been monitoring the situation since January 18. The restart does not, however, represent a full return to pre-shutdown production levels. While the disruption had no immediate impact on global oil prices, which continued to decline at the time of the outage, it triggered widespread electricity restrictions across western Kazakhstan. On January 21, Brent crude futures fell by 79 cents (1.22%) to $64.13 per barrel, while West Texas Intermediate dropped by 64 cents (1.06%) to $59.72 per barrel, Reuters reported. By then, production at Tengiz had already been suspended for three days, with sources indicating that the downtime would continue for another seven to ten days. From January 20, local authorities in Atyrau and Mangistau regions reported systemic electricity supply restrictions, including altered street-lighting schedules in Atyrau to conserve power, amid reduced gas deliveries to regional generators. The Ministry of Energy did not publicly respond to this until January 22, when, in a statement, it confirmed that gas turbine units at Tengiz were shut down on January 18. At the direction of Minister Erlan Akkenzhenov, his deputy was dispatched to oversee the situation on the ground. A special commission was established to investigate the incident, including representatives from the State Energy Supervision and Control Committee, the Atyrau Region Akimat’s Energy Department, KEGOC JSC, and Tengizchevroil LLP. No official explanation for the shutdown has yet been provided. However, some Kazakh energy experts have publicly speculated about a possible link to recent Ukrainian drone attacks on the infrastructure of the Caspian Pipeline Consortium (CPC), which plays a vital role in exporting Kazakh oil. Oil and gas analyst Olzhas Baidildinov drew a connection between the attacks and cascading effects on domestic energy supply: “They hit the CPC; exports declined, followed by oil production. Gas production declined along with oil. Gas is essential for electricity generation in western Kazakhstan,” he said. Baidildinov added that imported gas and electricity from Russia helped prevent more severe outages, though the energy crunch underscores longstanding vulnerabilities in Kazakhstan’s infrastructure. Baidildinov also referred to recent criticism from President Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, who at the 5th session of the National Kurultai voiced dissatisfaction with the energy sector, signaling potential personnel changes. On January 26, the Ministry of Energy announced that production at Tengiz would restart “in the near future,” and, at 4 a.m., the second-generation plant resumed operations, initiating raw material flows from the Royal field. “The current flow to the ZVP is 2,500 tons per day. Specialists are systematically increasing the supply of multiphase flow (oil and gas) to reach design capacity. At Tengiz, all technical and human resources have been mobilized to inspect energy facilities and power distribution systems,” the ministry stated. Officials emphasized that restoration efforts are under constant oversight. “TCO remains committed to ensuring reliable production and will increase volumes in stages, as infrastructure readiness and safety have been confirmed.” While the ministry has yet to publicly acknowledge...