International Monetary Fund - The Times Of Central Asia

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public debt

Kyrgyzstan Public Debt Exceeds $10 Billion as Repayment Costs Rise

Kyrgyzstan’s public debt reached $10.16 billion by the end of July 2026, with the government expecting to spend about $1.83 billion servicing its external debt between 2027 and 2029. According to Ministry of Finance figures, external debt stood at $5.19 billion as of July 31, while domestic debt totaled $4.96 billion. External borrowing consists mainly of loans from foreign governments and international financial institutions, while domestic debt is raised primarily through government bonds. Total debt was equivalent to about 38% of the government’s projected gross domestic product (GDP) for 2026. At the end of 2025, the debt-to-GDP ratio stood at 39.5%, up from 36.2% a year earlier. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) expects the ratio to reach 41.4% by the end of 2026. The country’s debt burden is relatively high compared with those of its Central Asian neighbors. IMF figures put Kazakhstan’s public debt at 25.2% of GDP in 2025, while the equivalent figures were 28.6% for Uzbekistan and a projected 24.7% for Tajikistan. For comparison, United States government debt stood at 123.9% of GDP in 2025. China remains Kyrgyzstan’s largest foreign creditor. According to Deputy Finance Minister Umutjan Amanbaev, Bishkek owes Beijing about $1.4 billion, equivalent to 27% of its external debt. Much of the remainder is owed to international development banks and financial institutions. Most external loans were obtained on concessional terms, generally carrying low interest rates and long repayment periods. However, the country has also begun taking on more expensive commercial debt. In May 2025, the government issued its first sovereign Eurobonds, raising $700 million through five-year notes carrying an annual interest rate of 7.75%. The bonds, placed on the London Stock Exchange, now account for about 13.5% of external debt. They are due to mature in 2030, when external debt repayments are projected to reach about $1.1 billion, based on the repayment schedule for existing obligations. The draft budget for 2027–2029, published by the Ministry of Finance, allocates about $606 million to external debt servicing in 2027, $600 million in 2028, and $621 million in 2029. These payments cover principal and interest on existing debt. More than 80% are denominated in U.S. dollars, so a weaker som could increase the budget cost of meeting the same obligations. The government also expects to spend 82.2 billion soms servicing domestic debt. Public debt remains below the government’s benchmark of 70% of GDP. The Ministry of Finance expects debt sustainability to be maintained over the medium term, although exchange-rate fluctuations and economic shocks remain significant risks. The IMF also considers the debt sustainable, while assessing its risk of debt distress as moderate. However, it has warned that growing repayment costs, particularly on domestic and non-concessional borrowing, could place increasing pressure on public finances.

Economic Growth

Central Asia Growth Forecasts Remain Strong in Latest ADB Outlook

Four of Central Asia’s five economies are expected to grow faster in 2026 than developing Asia and the Pacific as a whole, according to the Asian Development Bank’s September Asian Development Outlook. ADB forecasts growth of 5% across developing Asia and the Pacific this year, compared with 8.9% in Kyrgyzstan, 7% in Uzbekistan and Tajikistan, and 6.3% in Turkmenistan. Kazakhstan is the exception, with growth forecast at 4.8%. Kyrgyzstan is growing faster than its neighbors but is also facing the highest inflation among the five countries. ADB forecasts inflation at 11.2% this year and 8.5% next year. Growth continues to be supported by domestic demand and sustained investment, while ADB says import dependence and electricity-generation shortfalls are contributing to inflationary pressures. For Uzbekistan, ADB forecasts gross domestic product growth of 7% and inflation of 6.7% in 2026. In 2027, the figures are expected to be 6.8% and 5%, respectively. Stronger-than-expected economic activity prompted ADB to upgrade Uzbekistan’s 2026 growth forecast in its September outlook. Tajikistan is also forecast to grow by 7% in 2026, with inflation at 4.5%. Growth is expected to slow to 6.8% in 2027, while inflation is forecast to edge up to 4.7%. ADB lowered its 2026 growth projection in September, saying the escalation of Russia’s war in Ukraine had disrupted fuel imports and constrained near-term economic activity. Kazakhstan, the region’s largest economy, is growing more slowly than its neighbors. ADB expects growth of 4.8% this year and 4.5% next year, with inflation forecast at 10.4% and 9.5%, respectively. The bank left its growth and inflation forecasts unchanged from its previous outlook, with inflation expected to ease only gradually. For Turkmenistan, ADB forecasts growth of 6.3% in 2026 and 6.2% in 2027, with inflation at 6% in both years. The country’s economic indicators remain more difficult to compare with those of its neighbors because of limited access to reliable and detailed economic data. Its economy also remains heavily dependent on natural gas exports, with China its main gas market. Central Asia’s growth figures look strong against the Asian backdrop, but ADB is warning of energy and climate risks across developing Asia and the Pacific. Prolonged disruption to global energy markets could keep oil and gas prices elevated and volatile. For energy importers, that means higher fuel costs and additional inflationary pressure, while hydrocarbon exporters may benefit from higher prices but remain vulnerable to disruption in production and export routes. Another risk is a very strong El Niño, which ADB expects to persist through the first quarter of 2027. Extreme weather could reduce agricultural production and push up food prices, while a decline in hydropower generation could increase demand for other energy sources. For Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan, where hydropower supplies most electricity, weather and water availability add another layer of vulnerability. The differences between forecasts for the region remain substantial. In August, The Times of Central Asia compared projections from international financial institutions. The Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) forecast 2026 growth of 10.2% for Kyrgyzstan, 8.3% for Tajikistan,...

Digital Tenge

Digital Tenge Receives Official Legal Status in Kazakhstan

Beginning July 18, the digital tenge will officially become a recognized digital form of Kazakhstan’s national currency. Amendments to the country’s legislation grant the National Bank of Kazakhstan the exclusive authority to issue and circulate the digital currency, establishing a comprehensive legal framework for its wider use across the financial system. Unlike many central bank digital currency (CBDC) projects around the world, which remain at the pilot or experimental stage, Kazakhstan has already moved beyond testing into practical implementation. Rather than replacing cash or bank cards, the digital tenge has been designed primarily to improve transparency in public spending, government procurement, and the monitoring of budget expenditures. By the beginning of 2026, approximately 336.6 billion tenge, or about $640 million, worth of digital tenge had been issued, and the technology had been deployed in more than 100 pilot projects. These include public procurement, the management of National Fund resources, tax administration, government subsidies, and infrastructure financing. Programmable payment technology enables authorities to track the movement of public funds almost in real time while restricting spending according to predefined conditions. The practical use of the digital tenge continues to expand. According to the National Payment Corporation of Kazakhstan, the platform was used throughout 2025 in projects involving infrastructure financing, public procurement, business support programs, and other government initiatives. The experience gained from these projects has laid the foundation for the next stage of the digital tenge’s development. Kazakhstan remains the regional leader in the development of a central bank digital currency. Elsewhere in Central Asia, governments have concentrated on digital payments and the regulation of digital assets. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, Kyrgyzstan is promoting the gold-backed USDKG stablecoin for cross-border transactions, while other countries in the region have yet to move toward the practical implementation of national CBDCs. The International Monetary Fund believes the next phase of the project will depend less on further technological development than on strengthening regulation, enhancing cybersecurity, and integrating the digital tenge into Kazakhstan’s existing financial architecture. According to the IMF, these factors will determine whether the project can be successfully scaled nationwide.

International Monetary Fund

IMF Growth Forecast for Uzbekistan Warns of Inflation and Global Risks

Uzbekistan’s economy performed strongly in 2025, with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) reporting growth across sectors. Inflation fell and the fiscal deficit narrowed. The Fund urged policymakers to keep monetary policy tight and continue reforms as geopolitical tensions and global uncertainty add risks. Uzbekistan’s real GDP expanded by 7.7% in 2025, driven by strong domestic consumption and investment. The unemployment rate fell by 0.7 percentage points from the previous year to 4.8%. Growth was supported by rapid expansion in services and construction. Consumer price inflation declined from 9.8% at the end of 2024 to 7.3% at the end of 2025. The IMF attributed the improvement to the fading impact of energy price increases introduced in 2024 and the appreciation of the Uzbek som against the U.S. dollar. Tight monetary policy by the Central Bank also helped bring down inflation. Core inflation declined during the year. External balances improved as the current account deficit narrowed to 3.9% of GDP. Strong exports and remittance inflows supported the decline. High commodity prices also helped. International reserves remained at comfortable levels, equivalent to around 13 months of imports. The fiscal deficit fell to 2.1% of GDP, below the government’s target of 3%. The IMF expects economic growth to remain resilient in 2026, forecasting GDP growth of 6.8%. Continued reforms and investment are expected to support activity. Remittances and elevated gold prices should also help sustain growth. The Fund projects growth will moderate to around 6% in 2027 as domestic demand gradually slows. Despite the positive outlook, risks have increased because of the conflict in the Middle East and its potential impact on the global economy. Uzbekistan has limited direct trade and remittance links with countries affected by the conflict. However, higher oil prices and trade disruptions could affect the country indirectly through key trading partners. Weaker global growth could add further pressure. The IMF warned that inflation is likely to remain above the Central Bank’s 5% target in 2026. Higher global oil prices, combined with strong domestic demand, could slow disinflation. The Fund recommended that the Central Bank keep its policy rate at a restrictive level and tighten monetary policy further if inflationary pressures persist. The Fund advised the government to avoid spending increases beyond those already planned in the budget. Any support measures linked to the Middle East conflict should be temporary and targeted toward vulnerable groups, rather than broad subsidies or price controls. The IMF called for faster privatization of state-owned commercial banks and enterprises. It also recommended stronger corporate governance and continued work to improve fiscal transparency and debt management. The Fund highlighted labor market challenges, including low female labor force participation and skills mismatches. High levels of informal employment remain another concern. Further progress in governance reform and competition policy could help attract additional private investment. The IMF said Uzbekistan’s commitments linked to accession to the World Trade Organization could also support long-term economic growth. The country enters 2026 from a position of economic strength, but maintaining stability and continuing...

Energy Security

Kyrgyz Prime Minister Kasymaliev in Washington for IMF, World Bank Meetings

Kyrgyz Prime Minister Adylbek Kasymaliev has arrived in Washington, D.C. to participate in the Spring Meetings of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group. During his visit, Kasymaliev is expected to meet with senior World Bank officials to discuss ongoing and future investment projects in Kyrgyzstan. Following the IMF and World Bank sessions, Kasymaliev is scheduled to hold high-level talks with Anna Bjerde, the World Bank’s Managing Director for Operations, and Antonella Bassani, Vice President for Europe and Central Asia. A key item on the agenda will be the planned construction of the Kambarata-1 Hydropower Plant (HPP) on the Naryn River. The Kyrgyz government hopes to secure an interest-free loan of $500 million from the World Bank to support the project, which is estimated to cost $3.6 billion in total. Kambarata-1 is seen as a strategic initiative that could make Kyrgyzstan fully self-sufficient in electricity generation. To date, approximately 4 billion Kyrgyz soms (about $46 million) have been allocated from the state budget for preliminary construction works. These funds are being used to build vital infrastructure including roads, a transportation tunnel, a bridge over the Naryn River, power lines, and temporary housing for workers. In addition to his meetings with international financial institutions, Kasymaliev will also engage with executives from leading U.S. corporations. These discussions will not only cover the hydropower sector but will also highlight other government-led investment opportunities in Kyrgyzstan across various industries. The Kyrgyz leadership has intensified efforts to attract foreign partners for its infrastructure and energy projects, as part of a broader strategy to enhance economic independence and modernize the national energy grid.