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Oil and Gas

Turkmenistan’s Gas Swap Deals Could Be Collateral Damage from Israeli-Iran Conflict

Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world, but the country has found it difficult to export substantial volumes. Lack of export pipelines are one of the problems and it seemed Turkmenistan had partially solved this dilemma by arranging gas swap deals. Unfortunately for Turkmenistan, these deals involve Iran as the key country, and the Israeli-Iran conflict sheds new doubt on the ability of Iran to fulfill its part in the swap arrangements. So Close Turkmenistan signed a deal to supply 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually to Iraq in late October 2024. It was the first major gas export deal Turkmenistan had signed in nearly two decades. That last big agreement was signed with China in 2006. It involved building four gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to China to eventually carry a combined 85 bcm of gas, 65 bcm of which would be Turkmen gas. Since the pipelines cross through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, both of those countries are allotted 10 bcm each of the capacity for their gas exports. The fourth branch that would have carried 30 bcm of Turkmen gas has not been built, leaving Turkmen gas exports to China averaging 35 bcm per year. At the moment, China is the only major customer for Turkmen gas. The second largest buyer of Turkmen gas is Uzbekistan, which only purchases about 2 bcm. Not even 20 years ago, Russia was purchasing more than 40 bcm of Turkmen gas, but by 2023 that had dwindled to 5.5 bcm, still leaving Russia as the second largest buyer of Turkmen gas. In July 2024, after negotiations over price broke down, the two parties chose not to renew that contract. That made the agreement with Iraq all the more important for Turkmenistan. However, there are no pipelines connecting the two countries. Yet So Far The Turkmen-Iraqi agreement calls for Turkmenistan to ship 10 bcm of gas to Iran, with Iran then sending 10 bcm of its gas to Iraq. Iran needs gas for its northern regions that are not connected to the domestic pipeline network that sources gas from the fields of in the south of the country. Turkmenistan has two pipelines to export gas to Iran. Both were built after independence in 1991, and could carry up to a combined 20 bcm. Since January 2017, when the Turkmen government made good on a threat to cut off Iran over unpaid bills for gas, almost no gas has been shipped through these pipelines. The first task is to perform maintenance, repairs, and upgrades on these pipelines so that Turkmenistan can physically send 10 bcm of gas to Iran. The Iranian pipeline to Iraq is functional. Iran was exporting gas to Iraq, but international sanctions on Iran hindered Iraq’s ability to pay for that gas. Prior to the agreement with Iraq, Turkmenistan signed a contract in early July 2024 with Iranian officials for the transfer of gas. It is unclear how far along Turkmenistan is in performing its pipeline...

Gas

Iraq Seeks Alternative Gas Import Routes Through Turkmenistan Amid Sanctions Challenge

Iraq is intensifying efforts to implement a long-discussed agreement on natural gas imports from Turkmenistan, seeking to stabilize its energy sector and diversify supply sources. According to Ahmed Musa, spokesperson for Iraq’s Ministry of Energy, the plan involves importing around 20 million cubic meters of gas per day through pipelines connecting Turkmenistan and Iran. The route is intended to offset a shortfall caused by reduced gas flows from Iran, which currently supplies approximately one-third of Iraq’s energy needs. However, the implementation of this deal has faced significant hurdles. Chief among them is the issue of payments: the Trade Bank of Iraq (TBI) has been unable to issue a letter of credit due to U.S. sanctions on Iran, through whose territory the gas must transit. In an effort to resolve the deadlock, Iraqi Energy Minister Ziad Ali Fadel visited Turkmenistan to explore potential mechanisms to bypass the sanctions and operationalize the agreement. The foundations of this partnership were laid in 2023, when Iraq and Turkmenistan signed a memorandum of understanding, agreeing to continue negotiations on the logistics of fuel transit via Iran. Progress followed in November 2023, when both sides signed a protocol outlining the key commercial terms. Under the deal, Iraq is set to receive 45 billion cubic meters of gas over five years, equivalent to 9 billion cubic meters annually. The arrangement is structured as a swap: Turkmenistan will deliver gas to Iran, which in turn will transfer an equivalent volume to Iraq. Further advancing bilateral ties, Turkmenistan’s President Serdar Berdimuhamedov discussed gas supplies and the potential opening of an Iraqi embassy in Ashgabat with Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia Al-Sudani in March 2025. The talks underscored the growing strategic importance of energy cooperation between the two nations. A Strategic Energy Lifeline Iraq's reliance on natural gas to power its electricity grid makes securing reliable fuel sources a national priority. Given the country’s frequent power shortages and its current dependence on Iranian gas, diversifying suppliers is seen as crucial for both energy security and political autonomy. Turkmen gas is viewed as a strategically vital resource that could help stabilize Iraq’s energy sector and reduce vulnerability to geopolitical disruptions. The five-year agreement with Ashgabat aims to establish predictable, long-term supplies. Nevertheless, full-scale gas deliveries have yet to begin. The main obstacle remains the inability to process payments due to U.S. sanctions on Iran. Baghdad must either secure exemptions or devise alternative payment mechanisms to activate the contract. Simultaneously, technical discussions continue among Iraq, Iran, and Turkmenistan on ensuring reliable transport and infrastructure under the swap scheme. If these issues are resolved, Iraq could gain a dependable new energy partner, while Turkmenistan would expand its reach into a key southern market, strengthening both nations' strategic positions.

Oil and Gas

Turkmenistan to Boost Gas Exports to Neighbor Uzbekistan

Uzbekistan has agreed to purchase more natural gas from Turkmenistan, though the amount of additional gas and the price remain unclear. Uzbek President Shavkat Mirziyoyev spoke by phone with the chairman of Turkmenistan’s Halk Maslahaty (People’s Council) and leader of the country Gurbanguly Berdimuhamedov on December 5 to discuss the deal. According to Turkmen state news, Berdimuhamedov “agreed to the increase” of Turkmen gas to Uzbekistan, and it would not be surprising if Berdimuhamedov was quietly dancing in celebration on the other end of the line. Anxious to Sell Turkmenistan has the fourth largest gas reserves in the world, some 17.5 trillion cubic meters, at least. To put that in perspective, the 27 countries of the European Union, combined, used 350 billion cubic meters of gas in 2022, meaning Turkmenistan has enough gas to meet all the EU’s gas needs, at current levels, for 50 years. Unfortunately, more than 33 years after becoming independent, Turkmenistan still does not have many customers for its gas. There is China, which buys the most Turkmen gas, some 35 billion cubic meters (bcm), Uzbekistan, which in recent years has been purchasing 1.5-2 bcm annually from Turkmenistan, and Azerbaijan, which gets 1-1.5 bcm of Turkmen gas via a swap arrangement involving Iran. Turkmenistan’s only successful recent export deal is with Iraq for 10 bcm, which involves a swap arrangement with Iran that will require maintenance work and repairs on Turkmenistan’s and Iran’s pipelines. Turkmenistan just lost Russia as a customer after the contract for Russia to purchase up to 5.5 bcm of Turkmen gas expired at the end of June 2024. The expiration of the agreement with Russia meant Turkmenistan lost its second biggest buyer, but that might now turn out to be good news for Uzbekistan. Anxious to Buy The jump in the number of people and accompanying expansion of service infrastructure have combined with Uzbekistan’s gross failure to increase domestic gas output to make Uzbekistan a net gas importer. In late January 2023, Uzbek media reported the country produced some 51.7 bcm of gas in 2022 and said plans called for increasing that to 56.3 bcm in 2023. Instead, gas production fell to 46.7 bcm in 2023, and it is set to decrease further in 2024. Uzbekistan signed its first contract for Turkmen gas in December 2022. That deal was for 1.5 bcm annually, but in August 2023, the two countries agreed to boost that to 2 bcm. However, that was not enough to fill Uzbekistan’s growing gas consumption needs. In June 2023, Uzbekistan signed a two-year agreement to import up to 2.8 bcm of gas from Russia, but by March 2024, reports showed Uzbekistan looking to increase Russian gas imports to 11 bcm starting in 2026. It looks like some of the 5.5 bcm Turkmenistan was until recently selling to Russia will instead be sent to Uzbekistan, so for Turkmenistan, the gas deal with Uzbekistan only recovers some of the revenue lost with the expiration of the contract with Russia....

Oil and Gas

After Long Search, Turkmenistan Finally Finds a New Gas Customer – Iraq

Turkmenistan is reconfiguring its natural gas export options. Despite holding the world’s fourth largest gas reserves, Turkmenistan is exporting less of its gas today than it was 16 years ago. The big gas pipeline projects conceived nearly 30 years ago – a trans-Afghan pipeline to supply gas to Pakistan and India and a trans-Caspian pipeline to send gas to Europe - remain unfeasible for political reasons. Russia has been a leading customer for Turkmen gas for most of those three decades, but now Russia is competing for some of the same buyers as Turkmenistan. Stymied in its search for new markets at seemingly every turn, Turkmenistan is now planning on selling gas to Iraq, via a swap arrangement with Iran that includes bring Iranian companies to Turkmenistan to construct a new pipeline. Running Out of Options Turkmenistan is always looking for new gas customers. Iraq was never a potential gas buyer until recently, and in fact, the defunct Nabucco gas pipeline project of some 15 years ago considered Iraq to be a possible supplier of gas for Europe. Turkmenistan’s deal with Iraq appears to be the only deal possible at the moment, and it is an interesting arrangement. The two countries are not connected by any pipelines, so Turkmenistan will ship up to 10 bcm of gas to Iran, and Iran will send 10 bcm of its gas to Iraq. Turkmenistan signed what was described as a “binding agreement” for gas shipments after Iraq agreed to “an advance payment scheme and tax concessions.” In recent years, about 40% of Iraq’s gas imports came from Iran. After some 20 years of conflict, Iraq’s gas industry is still recovering, and gas imports are needed to operate the country’s power plants. However, sanctions on Iran made it difficult for Iraq to make payments for that gas. A Rocky Gas History There are already two gas pipelines connecting Turkmenistan’s gas fields to northern Iran. At the end of December 1997, the 200-kilometer Korpeje-Kurdkui pipeline with a capacity of some 8 bcm of gas was launched. In January 2010, the Dauletabad-Sarakhs-Khangiran pipeline with a capacity of some 12 bcm started operation. Turkmenistan was never close to shipping the 20 bcm combined capacity. Exports ranged from 6-8 bcm annually for years. Iran usually paid for its Turkmen gas in barter, sending a variety of goods, from food to engineering goods and services to Turkmenistan. In late 2016, a dispute developed between Turkmenistan and Iran over gas. Turkmenistan claimed Iran owed some $2 billion for gas supplies received in the winter of 2007-2008. Iran responded that Turkmenistan was inflating the price. The winter of 2007-2008 was especially cold causing severe gas shortages in 20 Iranian provinces. One Iranian media outlet reported on December 31, 2016, “Turkmenistan pounced on the occasion to demand a nine-fold hike which yanked the price up to $360 from $40 for every 1,000 cubic meters of gas.” On January 1, 2017, Turkmenistan halted gas supplies to Iran. The two countries took their...

Energy Turkmenistan Central Asia Oil & Gas Economy Iran Iraq

Iraq in Negotiation with Iran to Transfer Gas from Turkmenistan

Iraq Minister of Electricity Ziad Ali Fadel has announced ongoing negotiations regarding the transit of gas from Turkmenistan through Iran to Iraq and according to a report by Iran Oil Gas, Iraq may receive Turkmen gas as early as this summer if agreed by the partners concerned. In November 2023, representatives of Turkmenistan and Iraq signed a protocol outlining the principal commercial terms of the agreement to enable the shipment of 9 billion cubic meters of Turkmen gas to Iraq through Iran within five years. In January 2024 it was reported that Iraq had completed all the steps necessary to begin importing gas from Turkmenistan. The main reason for postponement of delivery as scheduled lies with the need for a comprehensive agreement to be reached with the transit country Iran. With reference to the country’s gas debt with Iran, the Iraq Ministry of Energy stated, “The Ministry of Electric Energy has paid all gas payments to the Iranian side and deposited them in a special account in [an] Iraqi commercial bank. But the payment process has not been completed due to international sanctions. Now, based on the agreement between the two sides, Iranian gas is being replaced by Iraqi crude oil.”