Israel-Iran Escalation - The Times Of Central Asia

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Logistics

Kazakhstan Faces Potential Logistics Disruptions Amid Iran-Israel Conflict

Kazakhstan’s Minister of National Economy, Serik Zhumangarin, has warned that the only significant risk to the national economy stemming from the conflict between Iran and Israel is a potential disruption to southern logistics routes. “We are closely monitoring developments in the Middle East and hope for a peaceful resolution. In terms of losses, we primarily export food to Iran, and we do not expect these events to affect that trade. The population there still needs to be fed. Our main concern is logistics. The only railway line heading south runs through Iran,” Zhumangarin told reporters on the sidelines of a Senate meeting. The route in question is the Kazakhstan-Turkmenistan-Iran segment of the North-South International Transport Corridor (Zhanaozen-Gyzylgaya-Bereket-Etrek-Gorgan), constructed between 2009 and 2014. The corridor reduces the distance from China to Iran by 500 kilometers when passing through Kazakhstan. However, Zhumangarin noted that Kazakhstan currently transports only a small volume of goods via this route, citing the poor condition of Iran’s railways. Iran’s railway infrastructure adheres to European standards with a track gauge of 1,435 mm, while Kazakhstan’s railcars are designed for a 1,520 mm gauge. Despite this technical discrepancy, Astana had been seeking to expand freight operations along this corridor. In February 2025, Kazakhstan’s ambassador to Tehran, Ontalap Onalbayev, met with Jabbar Ali Zakaria, head of the Iranian Railway Organization, to discuss plans to increase annual transit freight from 275,000 tons (2024) to 5 million tons. Following the escalation of the Iranian-Israeli conflict, Kazakhstan is now compelled to evaluate alternative logistics routes, Zhumangarin noted. “We have contingency options; we can route shipments through Georgia or use Chinese ports. This adds complexity to logistics, but if long-term consequences arise, we will adapt and support our business community. It’s too early to make firm predictions,” he stated. Kazakhstan’s trade turnover with Iran totaled approximately $350 million in 2024, with trade reaching $120 million in the first five months of 2025. As previously reported by The Times of Central Asia, in response to recent U.S. airstrikes in Iran, Central Asian nations, including Kazakhstan, have urged all parties to pursue diplomatic solutions and avoid any further escalation.

Israel-Iran Escalation

After U.S. Bombs Iran, Central Asia Calls for Diplomacy and Restraint

In the early hours of June 22, the United States launched airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, triggering widespread concern across Central Asia. Despite the potential economic upside for Kazakhstan, with the possibility of rising oil prices, the region’s governments have uniformly called for restraint and a peaceful resolution. The operation, dubbed “Midnight Hammer” by the U.S. Department of Defense, reportedly targeted facilities in Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. While Washington claimed success, the Iranian authorities asserted they had evacuated uranium from the Fordow site in advance, calling the mission a failure. Military experts continue to debate the extent of the damage. Coordinated Responses from Central Asian Capitals The foreign ministries of Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Kyrgyzstan, Turkmenistan, and Tajikistan issued similarly worded statements expressing concern over the rapidly deteriorating situation. Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs stated that the U.S. airstrikes marked a dangerous escalation and emphasized the need for negotiations grounded in the UN Charter. “Kazakhstan is part of the group of Caspian countries and is developing cooperation with Iran in various areas. Our country believes that all disagreements, including nuclear issues, should be resolved through negotiations,” the statement said. It also urged international efforts to prevent nuclear proliferation and establish security guarantees for nations adhering to the non-proliferation regime. Uzbekistan’s Foreign Ministry echoed this sentiment and advised citizens to avoid traveling to Israel and Iran. It also urged those currently in those countries to leave high-risk areas where possible. Kyrgyzstan called on all parties to exercise “maximum restraint” and avoid steps that could exacerbate the crisis. Turkmenistan reaffirmed its policy of "positive neutrality," stressing the importance of diplomacy and adherence to international law. Ashgabat stated that it “does not accept the use or threat of force as a means of resolving political and other disputes”. Tajikistan, meanwhile, issued the strongest statement, condemning the U.S. and Israeli strikes outright and warning that the conflict could lead to a prolonged regional war. Dushanbe called on the UN, IAEA, and other global bodies to prevent violations of international law and work towards peace and environmental safety. The Economic Subtext: Rising Oil Prices While official reactions were uniformly cautious, analysts in Kazakhstan noted the economic implications. Expert Olzhas Baidildin pointed out that shares in KazMunayGas surged by 11% following the strikes, with its market capitalization rising to 10.3 trillion KZT ($19.8 billion). Baidildin previously argued that Iran is unlikely to follow through on threats to block the Strait of Hormuz. Nevertheless, he noted that such a move would dramatically increase the strategic importance of Kazakhstan and other Central Asian energy producers to major consumers such as China and India. Financial analyst Andrei Chebotarev agreed, stating: "Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz is no longer the ace it once was. The West has diversified away from Gulf oil, while the real impact would fall on China, the region’s largest importer. Meanwhile, the U.S. could benefit from a price surge through its shale exports". It is estimated that China purchases approximately 90% of Iran's oil exports...

Israel-Iran Escalation

Central Asia and Israel, a Pragmatic Relationship That Never Truly Blossomed

The conflict between Israel and Iran is having both international and regional repercussions. The situation has been further inflamed by the U.S. bombing of several Iranian nuclear sites over the weekend, with Tehran responding by threatening retaliation on U.S. soil through the use of sleeper terrorist cells and the possible closure of the Strait of Hormuz, through which over a fifth of the world’s oil supply passes. While Israel's geographical position places it at the heart of the Middle East, Iran's location brings the Islamic Republic into close contact with Central Asia. The consequences of the conflict are therefore likely to be felt heavily in the Central Asian region. The close relations between Tehran and the capitals of Central Asia, due in part to their geographical proximity, are often highlighted. Less explored is the nature of the relationship between Tel Aviv and Central Asia and the lines along which it has developed since the dissolution of the Soviet Union. On both the Israeli and Central Asian sides, despite all the differences, relations began in the early 1990s, mainly based on certain mutual interests. From Israel's point of view, relations with Central Asia would mean expanding the circle of Muslim countries with which it had friendly ties, gaining greater influence in the region, and reducing its diplomatic isolation. From the Central Asian perspective, the appeal lay in increasing the number of its international partners, coupled with a desire to access Israeli know-how in numerous fields, and the possibility, through relations with Tel Aviv, of having a privileged channel of dialogue with the United States. More than three decades after the dissolution of the Soviet Union, relations remain good for the most part. “The positive relationship between Israel and Central Asia is driven by a combination of strategic, economic, and geopolitical factors,” Dr Zeev Levin, Coordinator of the Central Asian Research Unit at the Harry S. Truman Institute, told The Times of Central Asia. “One of the primary drivers is mutual interest in security and counterterrorism. Economically, Israel’s expertise in water management, agriculture, and technology is highly attractive to the arid, resource-seeking nations of Central Asia that aim to modernize their infrastructure and diversify their economies beyond oil and gas. Additionally, fostering ties with Israel provides a means of diversifying the foreign policy portfolios of the Central Asian republics.” This positive relationship, however, seems to have lost momentum in recent years due to several factors. Central Asian republics have increasingly oriented towards the East, moving closer to China and other players such as South Korea, Japan, and India, or towards other partners, such as the European ones, with Italy at the forefront in this regard. As Levin points out, the relation has cooled due to several factors: “Central Asian republics did look to Israel in the first decade of independence, but in the last decade to a much lesser extent, since Turkey and China are less complicated and cheaper options. For Israel, the region was never a priority or a point of...

Israel-Iran Escalation

After U.S. Strikes, Kazakhstan Warns of Deteriorating Security in Caspian Region

Kazakhstan said on Sunday that U.S. military strikes on Iran pose “serious consequences” for security in the Caspian region. “As a result of recent U.S. military actions against Iran, the international situation is rapidly deteriorating, posing serious consequences for the security of states in our region,” Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs said after the United States joined Israel’s war against Iran and attacked several Iranian nuclear sites. “Kazakhstan, as one of the Caspian region states, maintains cooperation with Iran in various spheres. We believe that all disputes, including those related to nuclear issues, must be resolved through negotiations based on the United Nations Charter,” the ministry said. “We urge all relevant states to accelerate the development of an agreement aimed at preventing the proliferation of nuclear weapons and providing security guarantees for states that comply with the non-proliferation regime under international oversight,” it said. Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, Iran and Russia border the Caspian Sea. The area is an important trade route.

Oil and Gas

Turkmenistan’s Gas Swap Deals Could Be Collateral Damage from Israeli-Iran Conflict

Turkmenistan has the fourth largest reserves of natural gas in the world, but the country has found it difficult to export substantial volumes. Lack of export pipelines are one of the problems and it seemed Turkmenistan had partially solved this dilemma by arranging gas swap deals. Unfortunately for Turkmenistan, these deals involve Iran as the key country, and the Israeli-Iran conflict sheds new doubt on the ability of Iran to fulfill its part in the swap arrangements. So Close Turkmenistan signed a deal to supply 10 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas annually to Iraq in late October 2024. It was the first major gas export deal Turkmenistan had signed in nearly two decades. That last big agreement was signed with China in 2006. It involved building four gas pipelines from Turkmenistan to China to eventually carry a combined 85 bcm of gas, 65 bcm of which would be Turkmen gas. Since the pipelines cross through Uzbekistan and Kazakhstan, both of those countries are allotted 10 bcm each of the capacity for their gas exports. The fourth branch that would have carried 30 bcm of Turkmen gas has not been built, leaving Turkmen gas exports to China averaging 35 bcm per year. At the moment, China is the only major customer for Turkmen gas. The second largest buyer of Turkmen gas is Uzbekistan, which only purchases about 2 bcm. Not even 20 years ago, Russia was purchasing more than 40 bcm of Turkmen gas, but by 2023 that had dwindled to 5.5 bcm, still leaving Russia as the second largest buyer of Turkmen gas. In July 2024, after negotiations over price broke down, the two parties chose not to renew that contract. That made the agreement with Iraq all the more important for Turkmenistan. However, there are no pipelines connecting the two countries. Yet So Far The Turkmen-Iraqi agreement calls for Turkmenistan to ship 10 bcm of gas to Iran, with Iran then sending 10 bcm of its gas to Iraq. Iran needs gas for its northern regions that are not connected to the domestic pipeline network that sources gas from the fields of in the south of the country. Turkmenistan has two pipelines to export gas to Iran. Both were built after independence in 1991, and could carry up to a combined 20 bcm. Since January 2017, when the Turkmen government made good on a threat to cut off Iran over unpaid bills for gas, almost no gas has been shipped through these pipelines. The first task is to perform maintenance, repairs, and upgrades on these pipelines so that Turkmenistan can physically send 10 bcm of gas to Iran. The Iranian pipeline to Iraq is functional. Iran was exporting gas to Iraq, but international sanctions on Iran hindered Iraq’s ability to pay for that gas. Prior to the agreement with Iraq, Turkmenistan signed a contract in early July 2024 with Iranian officials for the transfer of gas. It is unclear how far along Turkmenistan is in performing its pipeline...

Israel-Iran Escalation

Israel Strikes Mashhad, an Iranian City Near Turkmenistan and a Hub for Central Asia Trade

Mashhad, a northeastern Iranian city near the border with Turkmenistan and a significant hub for trade with Central Asia, is among the targets hit by the Israeli military in the intensifying conflict between Israel and Iran. The Israeli military said a strike on Mashhad’s airport on Sunday was the furthest since it launched airstrikes on Iran, including nuclear facilities, on June 13 and Iran promptly retaliated. The attack on the city highlights the potential fallout for some countries in Central Asia that do business with Iran across the border with Turkmenistan. “The IAF (Israeli Air Force) struck an Iranian refueling aircraft at Mashhad Airport in eastern Iran, approximately 2,300 kilometers from Israel. The IAF is operating to establish aerial superiority over Iranian airspace. This marks the longest-range strike conducted since the beginning of Operation Rising Lion,” the Israeli military said on X. Mashhad, which has a population of up to 3.5 million, is Iran’s second most populous city after the capital Tehran, which has nearly 10 million people. The northeastern city is an Islamic pilgrimage site and is the birth place of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, Iran’s supreme leader. U.S. President Donald Trump said on social media on Tuesday that “we know exactly” where Ayatollah Khamenei is hiding and that he is an “easy target” even if he is safe for now. Trump has also demanded Iran’s “unconditional surrender,” though it was unclear whether his comments meant the U.S. could directly join Israel’s military campaign against Iran. While the whereabouts of Iran’s supreme leader are not publicly known, Mashhad and other major Iranian cities have been thrown into turmoil by the Israeli attacks. Some people have fled to other towns or places in the countryside that they think might be safer. Flights have been canceled and there are reports of widespread internet disruptions. Mashhad is about 75 kilometers from the nearest point on the border with Turkmenistan, and a driving distance of about 275 kilometers to Ashgabat, Turkmenistan’s capital to the northwest. Last month, Iran and Turkmenistan signed an agreement aimed at increasing bilateral trade to $3 billion, the Tehran Times reported. The neighbors also agreed to establish joint free trade zones, build up border markets, ready a bilateral gas contract and take other steps to develop economic cooperation. In April, Iran and Turkmenistan agreed to start a cross-border passenger train as a way to strengthen economic ties. The route would link Mashhad with Merv, a city in Turkmenistan. The extent of disruption to these economic plans is unclear as fighting between Israel and Iran continues. Fears of a wider war are circulating and numerous countries, including those in Central Asia, have appealed for an end to hostilities.